Statistics and Probability Commons^™

Long-Term Behavior Of Subordinated Branching Processes With Prevailing Emigration, George Yanev

School of Mathematical & Statistical Sciences Faculty Publications

This paper deals into the long-term behavior of subordinated critical branching processes with migration. We focus on scenarios where emi­gration is the dominant factor and introduce additional randomness in timing through a subordination mechanism, involving renewal processes. The key findings highlight how the initial population size and the interar­rival mean time influence both asymptotic behavior of the non-extinction probability and corresponding Yaglom type limit theorems. We also study an alternating regenerative process, when the population cycles between zero and positive states. This research complements previous studies for processes when immigration prevails over emigration.

Comparative Evaluation Of Estimation Techniques For Purchasing Power Parity In African Countries Using The Country-Product-Dummy Regression Framework, Rokibat Adeola Tijani, Taiwo Abideen Lasisi, Dahud Kehinde Shangodoyin, Olasunkanmi James Oladapo

Al-Bahir

Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) is a popular macroeconomic analysis metric used to compare economic productivity and standards of living between countries. This study examines the estimation of PPP within the International Comparison Program (ICP) at Basic Heading (BH) level stage and leverages on the data from the 2011 ICP round. Focusing on five BHs out of 12 BHs across 50 Africa countries, to empirically evaluate the validity of the classical Ordinary Least Square (OLS) assumptions in the estimation of Country Product Dummy (CPD) regressions. Given the widespread use of OLS for BH level PPP computation, a rigorous examination of these …

Bayesian Survival Analysis For High-Dimensional Compositional Data, Zhenying Ding

All ETDs from UAB

Survival analysis integrating microbiome and clinical data offers powerful insights into human health. The microbiome influences immunity, inflammation, and cancer outcomes. Combining microbial profiles with clinical factors like tumor stage, treatment, and demographics enhances understanding of how host-microbe interactions affect survival. To analyze these complex datasets, advanced statistical methods, including Bayesian models, penalized Cox proportional hazards models, and machine learning techniques are employed. These approaches can uncover novel biomarkers and therapeutic targets, leading to personalized treatment strategies that optimize patient survival. However, challenges arise due to the compositionality, high-dimensionality, and phylogenetic relation between taxa in microbiome data. In this dissertation, …

Bayesian Mediation Analyses For Zero-Inflated Data, Jinhong Cui

All ETDs from UAB

Mediation analysis is a fundamental tool in causal inference, enabling researchers to disentangle the pathways through which an exposure affects an outcome via intermediate variables (mediators). It has been widely applied in social sciences, psychology, and healthcare-related studies. Traditionally, mediation analysis has been conducted within the linear structural equation modeling (LSEM) framework. However, recent advances have shifted attention toward the counterfactual framework due to its flexibility in defining causal effects and its capacity to accommodate non-linear relationships, parametric and non-parametric models. Building on this foundation, methodological developments in mediation analysis have expanded to address more complex data structures, such as …

Modeling Musculoskeletal Combat Casualty Care: Nato Trauma System Performance In Large Scale Combat Operations, Mark P. Cote, Kaitlyn E. Holly, Roman J. Schoenfeld, Matthew R. Bryan, Malina O. Hatton, Mitchel B. Harris, Tracey P. Koehlmoos, Andrew J. Schoenfeld

Department of Orthopaedic Surgery Faculty Papers

BACKGROUND: It is unclear whether the current North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) trauma system will be effective in the setting of Large-Scale Combat Operations (LSCO). We sought to model the efficacy of the NATO trauma system in the setting of LSCO. We also intended to model novel scenarios that could better adapt the current system to LSCO.

METHODS: We developed a discrete-event simulation model for patients with combat musculoskeletal injuries treated within the standard NATO system. The primary outcome of the model was survival. The model's health states were characterized as stable, hypovolemia, sepsis, shock, or death. The model simulated …

Emerging Clinical Role Of Tavapadon, A Novel Dopamine Partial Agonist, In The Treatment Of Parkinson’S Disease, Alan D. Kaye, Bennett M. Ford, Brennan M. Abbott, Kalob M. Broocks, Sofia Novacic, Sahar Shekoohi

School of Medicine Faculty Publications

Tavapadon, a novel oral dopamine-D1R/D5R partial agonist, has been studied in recent years for the treatment of late-stage development Parkinson’s disease (PD). Levodopa, a dopamine precursor that currently remains the gold-standard first-line therapy for PD motor symptoms, serves as a benchmark against emerging dopaminergic agents. By selectively activating D1-family receptors on direct-pathway medium neurons, Tavapadon differs in that it delivers levodopa-level motor benefit while avoiding its many D2R/D3R-mediated adverse effects. In placebo-controlled trials, Tavapadon produced clear, clinically meaningful gains in motor function and day-to-day activities, as captured by the Unified Parkinson’s Disease Rating Scale (UPDRS). Recent late-stage results have revealed …

Generalized Transversality Conditions For Fuzzy Quantum-Symmetric Variational Problems Via Granular Approach, Martin Bohner, Ewa Girejko, Agnieszka B. Malinowska, Linh Nguyen, Baruch Schneider, Tri Truong

Mathematics and Statistics Faculty Research & Creative Works

This paper investigates fuzzy q-symmetric variational problems with natural boundary conditions. Based on the relative distance measure fuzzy arithmetic and horizontal membership functions (HMFs), we propose novel concepts of differentiability and integrability for fuzzy functions on quantum geometric subsets of real numbers. Then, fundamental foundations of q-symmetric calculus of variations based on HMFs are provided. With the help of HMFs and granular q-symmetric differentiability, we derive necessary optimality conditions for fuzzy q-symmetric variational problems that depend on free endpoints. Moreover, sufficient conditions for minimizers of q-symmetric variational problems are obtained. Some numerical examples illustrating the proposed approach are presented.

Novel Statistical And Topological Data Analyses Of 2d Electronic Images, Robert L. Paige, Vic Patrangenaru

Mathematics and Statistics Faculty Research & Creative Works

In this paper, novel statistical and topological data analyses of 2D images are developed. One considers methodologies based on the Region Covariance Descriptor (RCD) and Topological Data Analysis (TDA) rooted in the simplicial as well as cubical persistent homologies. These methods provide statistical methods for data from populations of complex data objects that are elements of non-Euclidean spaces. The 2D image data considered consist of pictures of two leaves—A and B—from the same tree, twenty of each leaf, from different perspectives. The novel statistical procedures developed are used for correctly determining that leaf A images and leaf B images are …

Designing An Experiment To Create And Evaluate Behavioral Changes In Air Force Pilots' Fuel Efficiency, Jackson Macias

Theses and Dissertations

Fuel represents over 70% of the logistical resupply demand within the Department of Defense, with the United States Air Force accounting for most of that consumption. While prior fuel efficiency efforts have primarily focused on technical upgrades, this research explores how behavioral interventions can influence pilot decision-making and operational energy outcomes. Using the Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB) as a guiding framework, this study investigates the effects of targeted behavioral strategies on pilots’ attitudes, subjective norms, perceived behavioral control, intentions, and actual fuel-efficient behaviors. A quasi-experimental design was applied through a controlled pilot study using simulator flights. Six participants were …

Designing The Protocol For An Experimental Flight Simulation Study Encouraging Fuel Efficient Behavior, Thomas S. Reardon

Theses and Dissertations

This study designed and tested an experimental instrument to examine how pilots respond to fuel efficiency feedback in a flight simulator. A standardized flight plan, script, and hardware setup were created using X-Plane 12 software and physical flight simulator hardware. The chosen sortie guided participants from Monterey Regional Airport to Moffett Federal Airfield using instrument flight rules (IFR). The flight script provided step-by-step guidance to ensure consistent behavior across participants. The simulator was mapped to match real cockpit controls and allowed for precise data collection including flight time, altitude, heading, and fuel use. The goal was to support a larger …

Effect Of Workplace Design On Collaboration And Satisfaction In Space System Command, Joshua A. Hagood

Theses and Dissertations

This study addresses a significant knowledge gap regarding the influence of physical workplace design on employee collaboration and satisfaction with the physical environment within U.S. Space Force technical military organizations.  While seminal industry research consistently demonstrates that physical design and indoor environmental quality influence employee satisfaction and collaboration (e.g., Candido et al., 2015; Sailer et al., 2021), the understanding of these impacts within military contexts remains limited.  Using a quantitative post-occupancy evaluation survey, adapted from the Sustainable Post Occupancy Evaluation Survey (SPOES), multiple regression analyses revealed that physical elements collectively predict both satisfaction and collaboration.  The final simplified model showed …

Trends And Predictive Modeling Of Real Estate Prices In Major Saudi Arabia Cities, Meshal S. Aldahas

Theses and Dissertations

his research examines historical trends and explanatory modeling of real estate prices in major Saudi cities, with a focus on Riyadh, Jeddah, and Dammam. Using a mixed-methods approach, the study integrates quantitative data from 2010–2023, including housing and macroeconomic indicators, with qualitative insights drawn from over 320 survey responses that captured consumer sentiment on affordability, job security, and housing policies. A combination of descriptive statistics, ARIMA and Exponential Smoothing techniques was applied to detect long-term patterns, seasonal variations, and market shocks. Predictive modeling was conducted using Linear Regression, Decision Trees, and Neural Networks, with results showing that job security consistently …

Deep Learning Framework For Option Pricing, Kyle Rytand Bistrain

Master's Theses

Accurately pricing American options with market data presents a significant challenge, as foundational models like the Black-Scholes-Merton (BSM) model rely on assumptions that deviate from real-world financial data -- such as log-normal returns, constant volatility, and no dividends -- and fail to account for the key early exercise feature of American options. While parametric models can adjust for these features, the complexity of the resulting models renders them prohibitively difficult to apply in practice for nonspecialists. In response, modern machine learning (ML) techniques provide a set of flexible and powerful alternatives, and recent research has explored the application of ML …

Ibi-Dt: A Novel Approach Combining Individualized Bayesian Inference And Decision Tree For Identifying Cancer Drivers And Their Interactions, Md Asad Rahman, Gregory F. Cooper, Jinying Zhao, Xinghua Lu, Jinling Liu

Engineering Management and Systems Engineering Faculty Research & Creative Works

Cancer is mainly caused by a relatively small portion of somatic genome alterations (SGAs), called cancer drivers. Despite success in identifying a good number of cancer drivers, many more remain to be discovered to explain various cancers. Moreover, limited tools are available to identify potential interactions among cancer drivers for a better understanding of oncogenesis. To tackle these challenges, we have developed a novel approach called individualized Bayesian inference using a decision tree (IBI-DT). IBI-DT recognizes the genetic heterogeneity among cancer patients, where different individuals or patient subgroups of distinct genomic makeup may have different drivers. IBI-DT works by constructing …

Access To Information On Toddler Family Development Program And Family Participation In Child Growth And Development, Dita Dhammayanti, Demsa Simbolon, Lissa Ervina, Yusran Fauzi

Kesmas

The comprehension of the Toddler Family Development (TFD) Program among families in Indonesia remains limited, likely due to insufficient access to information and low participation rates. Limited participation can negatively affect a family’s ability to support optimal child growth and development. This study examined the relationship between access to information on the TFD Program and family participation in child growth and development. Using secondary data from the 2019 Program Performance and Accountability Survey in Indonesia, the cross-sectional analysis included 21,497 respondents. The results revealed an association between access to information on the TFD Program and family participation in child growth …

Exploring Stunting In South Kalimantan Province Using R Programming-Based Data Visualization, Muhammad Hudaya, Wahyudin Nor, Mellani Yuliastina, Muhammad Nordiansyah

Kesmas

South Kalimantan Province continues to face the challenge of relatively high stunting prevalence despite being endowed with abundant coal resources that could serve as a source of funding for public health. Therefore, this study aimed to examine differences in stunting prevalence among cities, mining districts, and non-mining districts in South Kalimantan to raise stakeholder awareness of disparities across these regional types. This study was conducted between April and December 2024, using secondary data obtained from the Indonesian Ministry of Health and the South Kalimantan Provincial Government. R programming was used to process the data, generate visualizations, and perform analysis of …

Low Economic Level And The Risk Of Overweight Among Indonesian Junior And Senior High School Students, Ariyanto Nugroho, Purwo Setiyo Nugroho, Amarin Yudhana, Sri Sunarti

Kesmas

Overweight and obesity among Indonesian adolescents have emerged as a pressing public health issue, reflecting global trends. This study examines the relationship between economic status and overweight prevalence among junior and senior high school students in Indonesia, using secondary data from the Global School-based Health Survey (GSHS). This study analyzed data from 9,977 students aged 11–18 years through a cross-sectional design and binary logistic regression, adjusting for dietary habits, physical activity, and sedentary behavior. Overall, 14.7% of students were overweight; the prevalence was notably higher among low-income students (27.4%) compared to high-income groups (14.2%). Students from lower economic backgrounds were …

Understanding User Needs In Health Crisis Risk Monitoring Information System Development: A Lesson From Tasikmalaya District, Indonesia, Arief Tarmansyah Iman, Hari Kusnanto, Ariani Arista Putri Pertiwi

Kesmas

A health crisis risk monitoring information system needs to be developed, especially during the pre-disaster phase; therefore, understanding the needs of prospective users is crucial. This study aimed to investigate the needs of potential users regarding the development of this system. This study employed a qualitative, exploratory approach to gather user needs from stakeholders through interviews (n = 7) and one focus group discussion (n = 12). The data were audio-recorded, transcribed verbatim, and then thematically analyzed using qualitative content analysis. The need for information was related to disaster preparedness and its preferred format. The system should be targeted, multiplatform, …

A Modern Analytical Method To Forecast Cerebrovascular Diseases (Cd), And Heart Diseases (Hd) Using Multivariate Time Series Model Utilizing The Cdc Provisional Mortality Data, Aditya Chakraborty, Mohan Pant

Cardiovascular Research Symposium

Background: In this study, a new analytical approach was introduced to answer specific questions related to mortalities due to cerebrovascular diseases, heart diseases, and the association of these mortalities with twelve other causes of death (COD).

Methods: A multivariate time series forecasting model was developed utilizing each of the CODs by taking the weekly and yearly seasonality into account, and the mortality counts were forecasted using the most recent CDC weekly mortality count data. A new COD data matrix was structured for all CODs as a function of weeks by combining the observed and predicted values of the mortality counts. …

Nba Player Types And Salaries: Assessing The Disparities In Pay, Nick Riccardi, Rodney J. Paul

Sport Management - All Scholarship

The purpose of this study was to identify player types that exist in the modern National Basketball Association (NBA), test whether player types are paid differently controlling for performance and other factors and construct successful rosters with cheaper payrolls.
We collected performance statistics and salary data for players and teams across five seasons (2018-19 to 2022-23). Cluster analysis is leveraged to group together player-seasons to identify the player types that exist in the NBA. Linear regression models are run to test for differences in pay by cluster membership while controlling for performance, age, and contractual details. Linear programming simulation models …