Statistics and Probability Commons^™

Provincial Disparities In Adolescent Fertility In Indonesia: An Ecological Analysis Of Child Marriage, Median Age At First Marriage, And Family Development Index, Andi Nisa Fathimiyah Afidah, Milla Herdayati

Kesmas

Adolescent fertility remains a public health concern in Indonesia, with substantial variations across provinces. However, the evidence explaining provincial disparities using population-level indicators remains limited. This study aimed to examine provincial disparities in adolescent fertility and assess the association of child marriage, median age at first marriage among women, and the Family Development Index called iBangga with adolescent fertility across Indonesia. This ecological, cross-sectional study used aggregated data from 34 Indonesian provinces. Descriptive statistics, spatial visualization, Pearson’s correlation, and multiple linear regression analyses were performed. The mean adolescent fertility rate was 25.0 births per 1,000 female adolescents aged 15–19 years, …

The Association Between Rapid Growth In Children Under The Age Of Five And Adolescent Obesity, Ratu Ayu Dewi Sartika, Fadila Wirawan, Iche Andriyani Liberty, Nurul Husna Mohd Shukri, Siti Arifah Pujonarti, Edy Purwanto, Munaya Fauziah

Kesmas

Early-life nutrition is a critical predictor of long-term health, yet the association between rapid early-childhood growth and adolescent obesity, particularly in relation to the “double burden of malnutrition,” remains under-researched in Indonesia. This study aimed to analyze the association between rapid growth and adolescent obesity. Data were obtained from the 1997, 2000, and 2014 waves of the Indonesian Family Life Survey (IFLS). This study included 641 children (aged 0–23 months at baseline) with complete anthropometric measurements across all three waves. Rapid growth was defined as an increase in z-scores of >0.67 in weight-for-age (WAZ), height-for-age (HAZ), or weight-for-height (WHZ) between …

Environmental Perspective For System Dynamics Modeling Of Stunting Mitigation To Achieve The Sustainable Development Goals In West Sumatra, Indonesia, Elsa Yuniarti, Nabila Azzahra, Yulhendri Yulhendri, Heldi Heldi, Mery Delvina, Saskia Putri Azeli

Kesmas

This study developed a system dynamics model to simulate stunting reduction in West Sumatra Province, Indonesia, by integrating infant and toddler health, maternal health, and environmental determinants. Secondary data from 2020–2024 on low birth weight, immunization, malnutrition, exclusive breastfeeding, maternal chronic energy deficiency, iron and folic acid supplement distribution, sanitation, and safe drinking water access were compiled from West Sumatra Provincial Health Office and Statistics Indonesia, and validated through consultation with five stakeholder institutions. Causal Loop Diagrams mapped feedback relationships among determinants and were translated into Stock Flow Diagrams using Powersim Studio 10. The model was validated through structural verification, …

A Vision For The Future Of Academic Publishing In Sports Analytics, Ryan Elmore, B. Baumer, Brian Macdonald, Gregory J. Matthews, Michael E. Schuckers

Statistical and Data Sciences: Faculty Publications

This article introduces the Journal of Statistics and Data Science in Sports (JSDSS), a Diamond Open Access, peer-reviewed journal. The journal is founded on three core principles. First, our commitment to open access is absolute. Second, reproducibility is critical and fundamental to the journal. Third, we believe sport is a rich and underutilized laboratory for statistical and data science innovation. The aim of the Journal of Statistics and Data Science in Sports is to provide an outlet for original, rigorous, practical, state-of-the-art, reproducible, and peer-reviewed analysis of sports data as well as the data science tools (software, applications, data, etc.) …

Modeling Of Supersonic Wave And Shock Propagation Using The Lattice Boltzmann Method, Timothy P. Schroeder

Beyond: Undergraduate Research Journal

The lattice Boltzmann method (LBM) has emerged as a mesoscopic alternative to traditional Navier-Stokes solvers for modeling fluid dynamics offering advantages in computational efficiency, parallelization, and handling of complex boundaries. Despite these strengths, accurately reproducing compressible, shock-driven phenomena remains challenging. This study investigates the performance of LBM in simulating the Sod shock tube problem, a classical benchmark for compressible flow-using both single and double distribution function formulations across one- and two-dimensional lattice stencils. A MATLAB-based solver was developed to model the flow under isothermal conditions and compared to the analytical solution using the L2 norm error. The one-dimensional models achieved …

Adaptive Rational Approximation In Dynamic Economic Models: A Novel Application Of The Aaa Algorithm To Economic Growth, Adaye Sosthene Yvan N'Guettia

Mathematics, Statistics, and Computer Science Honors Projects

I study adaptive rational approximation for fixed points that arise in infinite-horizon dynamic programming. I integrate the Adaptive Antoulas–Anderson (AAA) algorithm into Bellman- and Euler-based fixed-point solvers by recomputing a barycentric rational interpolant at each update. In addition to standard AAA, which selects support points from interpolation residuals, I study a residual-weighted variant in which Bellman,Euler, or KKT diagnostics act as secondary weights on the greedy pivot rule. This alignment of approximation adaptivity with the underlying equilibrium conditions can concentrate degrees of freedom in regions of steep curvature, sharp transitions in localbehavior, and other localized features that typically degrade polynomial …

An Analysis Of The Effects And Implementations Of The Early Literacy Grant In Arizona, Alicia Severiano Perez

Mathematics, Statistics, and Computer Science Honors Projects

Over the years, states have implemented Science of Reading (SoR) frameworks to address low literacy levels. The Early Literacy Grant (ELG) in Arizona funds and supports such frameworks for schools serving low-income students. This paper is the first to explore the grant through interrupted time series modeling to evaluate effectiveness and text analysis to understand its implementation. We do not find clear evidence of positive effects caused by the grant, other than some cases, such as Yuma County. Schools typically allocate funds toward salaries and hiring instructors. These findings raise questions about whether its allocations should be closely monitored.

Level Sets For Lehmer Codes Of Pattern Avoiding Permutations, Avery Sinclair

Mathematics, Statistics, and Computer Science Honors Projects

We study the poset structures for two families of pattern avoiding permutations. An n-permutation is a list of the numbers [n]={1,2,...,n}. A permutation is 321-avoiding when it does not contain a decreasing subsequence of length 3. A poset (partially ordered set) is a set such that some elements can be compared with one another. Using Lehmer codes, we define a poset for 321-avoiding permutations. We then fully describe the six lowest levels of this poset. We then consider the analogous poset for 123-avoiding permutations (which don't contain an increasing subsequence of length 3) and fully describe the three lowest levels.

A Longitudinal Study Of Achilles Tendon Adaptation In Ncaa Division I Female Gymnasts: Associations With Menstrual Status, Birth Control Use, Pain, Limb Dominance, And Training Exposure, Mattie Jane Hyde

Electronic Theses and Dissertations

This longitudinal study evaluated Achilles tendon (AT) thickness in 22 NCAA Division I (DI) female gymnasts across three consecutive seasons in relation to menstruation, birth control use, pain, limb dominance, training week, and year of collegiate competition. Weekly ultrasound and athlete survey data were analyzed using mixed-effects models for absolute AT thickness and change in thickness from baseline measurements. Associations were primarily characterized by interactions rather than uniform effects of individual predictors. A Pain × Limb Dominance × Week × Year interaction was associated with both thickness outcomes across season-specific and combined analyses, with relationship directions varying by limb, season …

Predicting Remaining Useful Life Using Multivariate Time-Series Data, Anayah Smith, Victoria Gaibor

Discovery Day - Daytona Beach

Accurate prediction of Remaining Useful Life (RUL) is critical for enabling predictive maintenance, improving system reliability, and reducing operational costs in degrading systems. This project addresses the problem of modeling and predicting RUL using multivariate time-series sensor data from the NASA CMAPSS turbofan engine dataset, with a focus on understanding how predictive performance changes across datasets of varying complexity. The objective is to develop a reproducible machine learning pipeline that captures degradation patterns and produces reliable time-to-failure predictions. The approach includes data preprocessing, exploratory data analysis, feature engineering, dimensionality reduction, and model evaluation. RUL values are computed and capped to …

Predicting Passenger Demand On National Flights Departing From Hartsfield-Jackson Atlanta International Airport (Atl) In 2024, Brooklyn Gossett, Ana Yu Wen

Discovery Day - Daytona Beach

The aviation industry relies heavily on accurate demand forecasting to guide critical decisions regarding route planning, capacity management, and pricing strategy. Misjudging passenger demand can result in significant revenue loss and operational inefficiency, making it essential for airlines and analysts to identify the key drivers of flight patronage. This study investigates the factors that most significantly predict the number of passengers on domestic flights departing from Hartsfield-Jackson Atlanta International Airport (ATL) during the 2024 calendar year. Using passenger and route data sourced from the Bureau of Transportation Statistics (BTS) and the U.S. Department of Transportation (DOT), a multiple regression analysis …

A Compact Representation Of Oscillatory Limits Via Asymptotic Value Distributions, Ibrahim Arnous, Eric M. Rodarte, Chirag Kumar

Discovery Day - Daytona Beach

Classical limits describe asymptotic behavior through convergence to a single value, but many important oscillatory functions do not converge in this sense. Standard examples such as sin(𝑥) as 𝑥→∞ and sin(1/x) as x→0 instead display stable distributions of values over time. This project examines how such behavior can be described using a measure-theoretic framework, particularly through occupation measures and, in sequence-based settings, Young measures. The objective is to present this perspective in a clear and accessible way while introducing the Ansatz representation, a compact notation for recording the support and density of an asymptotic value distribution when the limiting measure …

Bounded Thunderstorm Tracking Of Lightning Events With Muon Detection, Skylar Wardlaw, Ainsley Helgerson, Maria Kaminska, Logan Velvet, Georgii Dubrov, Jackson Stewart, Aaron Jung, Nathaniel O’Hara, Amelia Koth, Nash Mcleod, Emaleth Wyckoff

Discovery Day - Daytona Beach

The muon is a high-energy particle that can be produced by cosmic rays and trigger upper-atmospheric particle cascades and energetic processes. It has been hypothesized that such cascades are at the onset of lightning. As such, muons serve as a valuable probe for investigating the underlying mechanisms of its initiation, whose full governing dynamics remain vastly unknown despite extensive research. Traditional approaches to lightning research involve simulations and observations of the discharge itself, but the role of high-energy particle interactions has yet to be fully constrained. The CosmicWatch Muon Detector design enables the detection of atmospheric muons through scintillation events, …

Statistical Methodologies For Count Time Series Analysis And Topological Data Analysis Of Medical Images, Yuhyeong Jang

Statistical Science Theses and Dissertations

This dissertation addresses two distinct topics related to count time series analysis and topological medical image analysis, respectively. The first part of the dissertation comprises an application of a count time series model to analysis of US monthly sex trafficking data and development of a new model for multivariate count data that exhibits serial dependence and overdispersion. By imposing a family of multivariate mixed Poisson distributions on the count random vector, the proposed model can accommodate a broad range of overdispersion as well as positive contemporaneous correlations. For maximum likelihood estimation, a computationally feasible EM-type algorithm is derived based on …

Ground To Roof Snow Load Ratio (Gr) Data Release, Brennan Bean, Cooper Nelson, Jesse Wheeler, Scout Jarman, Salam Adil Al-Rubaye, Marc Maguire

Browse all Datasets

This data release provides historical ground-to-roof snow load ratio (GR) datasets used for snow load research and model development. The release includes original referenced datasets, cleaned country specific datasets, and a master dataset that combines Canadian and United States datasets into a standardized format for research and engineering applications.

Algebraic And Topological Methods In Computational Neuroscience, Trong-Thuc Trang

Electronic Theses and Dissertations 2020 - Present

Neural data is incredibly rich in combinatorial, topological, and geometrical information, reflecting the intricate shape and connectivity of neural firing patterns. To decipher these structures, neuroscience increasingly relies on advanced mathematical tools to analyze neural activity. Here we study (1) neural codes within the poset P_Code of neural codes and (2) the connectivity of neural population activity within the insular cortex when responding to interoceptive information. In (1), we establish combinatorial constructions for all upward covering relations based on what we call “isolated subsets” with supporting theorems and give a slight modification of the existing downward covering relations. We …

A Semantic Data Management Framework For Uncertainty Quantification In Synchrotron Diffraction Pattern Analysis, Ayorinde E. Olatunde, Ozan Dernek, Erika I. Barcelos, Roger H. French, Anirban Mondal

Student Scholarship

Advancements in technology have enabled scientists and engineers in the synchrotron science domain to generate high-dimensional data. To conduct a machine learning study on these data, an analyst undergoes multiple analytical stages, including dimensionality reduction, predictive modelling, and uncertainty quantification (UQ).

To ensure reproducibility in science, it is necessary to document the semantic relationships among the stages of the analysis to enable provenance, interoperability, and knowledge reuse. In this work, we present a Semantic Data Management (SDM) framework rooted in FAIR principles that provides ontologies for UQ workflows. We illustrate the application of UQ ontology in synchrotron diffraction pattern analyses …

Wavelet-Based Multiscale Analysis Of Cave Co₂ Concentration In Response To Short-Term High-Intensity Tourism Activities: Spatiotemporal Heterogeneity And Lag Characteristics, Mingda Cao, Wenwen Song, Yan Zhang, Jie Zhang, Zhiqiang Yao

International Journal of Speleology

High-intensity tourism activities can cause a significant increase in cave air CO₂ concentration, thereby affecting the cave micro-environment and secondary carbonate deposition. During the 2023 National Day Golden Week, high-frequency continuous monitoring of cave air CO₂ partial pressure (PCO_2(A)) and visitor numbers was conducted in Dawang Cave, Anhui Province. Wavelet transform and cross-correlation analyses were used to reveal the multi-scale response characteristics of CO₂ concentration to tourism activities. The results show that: (1) PCO_2(A) exhibited clear diurnal variations (higher during the day, lower at night) and decreased spatially with enhanced ventilation, controlled jointly by …

Community Detection In Bipartite Networks Using Bipartite Stochastic Block Models With Node-Level Covariates, Geraldine Elaine Percival

Dissertations

In this age, monumental webs of data demands for perpetual cultivation of ways to untangle these webs of information. One of the many curiosities is how to systematically group entities. When clustering, one avenue to take is ascertaining the interconnectedness between the data points, and gauging their influence to each other. This perspective is programmed to model the relationships between the data presented as a network. Many of the methods being used today are algorithm-based, which may pose limitations in understanding and explaining the uncertainty revolving around the data. Hence, it is proposed to steer towards a model-based approach that …

Laplace Factor Models In High-Dimensional Data, Siqi Liu, Xuerong Meggie Wen, Akim Adekpedjou, Guangbao Guo

Mathematics and Statistics Faculty Research & Creative Works

Laplace factor models (LFMs) provide a heavy-tailed alternative to Gaussian factor models by representing high-dimensional observations through a low-rank common component and Laplace-distributed idiosyncratic errors. This paper develops an assumption-consistent finite-sample analysis of matrix concentration, covariance estimation, and Monte Carlo integration under this model. We first formulate the model with explicit dimensional, independence, covariance, and identifiability conditions. Standard matrix Laplace-transform and matrix Bernstein inequalities are then recalled with their precise applicability conditions. Because untruncated Laplace variables are neither almost surely bounded nor strongly log-concave, these standard results cannot be applied directly in the forms commonly used for bounded or Gaussian-like …