Other Statistics and Probability Commons^™

Confidence Intervals For Ranks Of Age-Adjusted Rates Across States Or Counties, Shunpu Zhang, Jun Luo, Li Zhu, David G. Stinchcomb, Dave Campbell, Ginger Carter, Scott Gilkeson, Eric J. Feuer

Department of Statistics: Faculty Publications

Health indices provide information to the general public on the health condition of the community. They can also be used to inform the government’s policy making, to evaluate the effect of a current policy or healthcare program, or for program planning and priority setting. It is a common practice that the health indices across different geographic units are ranked and the ranks are reported as fixed values. We argue that the ranks should be viewed as random and hence should be accompanied by an indication of precision (i.e., the confidence intervals). A technical difficulty in doing so is how to …

Parametric And Nonparametric Statistical Methods For Genomic Selection Of Traits With Additive And Epistatic Genetic Architectures, Reka Howard, Alicia L. Carriquiry, William D. Beavis

Department of Statistics: Faculty Publications

Parametric and nonparametric methods have been developed for purposes of predicting phenotypes. These methods are based on retrospective analyses of empirical data consisting of genotypic and phenotypic scores. Recent reports have indicated that parametric methods are unable to predict phenotypes of traits with known epistatic genetic architectures. Herein, we review parametric methods including least squares regression, ridge regression, Bayesian ridge regression, least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO), Bayesian LASSO, best linear unbiased prediction (BLUP), Bayes A, Bayes B, Bayes C, and Bayes Cπ. We also review nonparametric methods including Nadaraya-Watson estimator, reproducing kernel Hilbert space, support vector machine regression, …

Fusion Of Masses Defined On Infinite Countable Frames Of Discernment, Florentin Smarandache, Arnaud Martin

Branch Mathematics and Statistics Faculty and Staff Publications

In this paper we introduce for the first time the fusion of information on infinite discrete frames of discernment and we give general results of the fusion of two such masses using the Dempster’s rule and the PCR5 rule for Bayesian and non-Bayesian cases.

A General Procedure Of Estimating Population Mean Using Information On Auxiliary Attribute, Sachin Malik, Rajesh Singh, Florentin Smarandache

Branch Mathematics and Statistics Faculty and Staff Publications

This paper deals with the problem of estimating the finite population mean when some information on auxiliary attribute is available. It is shown that the proposed estimator is more efficient than the usual mean estimator and other existing estimators. The results have been illustrated numerically by taking empirical population considered in the literature.

A Generalized Family Of Estimators For Estimating Population Mean Using Two Auxiliary Attributes, Sachin Malik, Rajesh Singh, Florentin Smarandache

Branch Mathematics and Statistics Faculty and Staff Publications

This paper deals with the problem of estimating the finite population mean when some information on two auxiliary attributes are available. A class of estimators is defined which includes the estimators recently proposed by Malik and Singh (2012), Naik and Gupta (1996) and Singh et al. (2007) as particular cases. It is shown that the proposed estimator is more efficient than the usual mean estimator and other existing estimators. The study is also extended to two-phase sampling. The results have been illustrated numerically by taking empirical population considered in the literature.

Short-Term Inflation Forecasting Models For Nigeria, Sani I. Doguwa, Sarah O. Alade

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

Short-term inflation forecasting is an essential component of the monetary policy projections at the Central Bank of Nigeria. This paper proposes four short-term headline inflation forecasting models using the SARIMA and SARIMAX processes and compares their performance using the pseudo-out-of-sample forecasting procedure over July 2011 to September 2013. According to the results the best forecasting performance is demonstrated by the model based on the all items CPI estimated using the SARIMAX model. This model is, therefore, recommended for use in short-term forecasting of headline inflation in Nigeria. The forecasting performance up to eight months ahead, of the models based on …

An Efficient Two Sample Capture-Recapture Model With High Recaptures, Danjuma Jibasen, Yusuf J. Adams

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This paper proposed an efficient two sample capture-recapture model (Ma) with high recaptures and compared it with the existing models like the model of no factor effect (Mo), behavioral response model (Mb) and the Petersen model (Ms), using simulated data. We found that the Petersen model provides a better estimate of the population size when the observations follow a hypergeometric distribution and the population is overestimated when recapture is high. It was also found that the proposed model provides a better estimator of the population size than the existing ones when the recapture is high. This model is particularly useful …

Causal Relationship Between Stock Market Index And Exchange Rate: Evidence From Nigeria, Abdulrasheed Zubair

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This paper uses Johansen’s cointegration to test for the possibility of cointegration and Granger-causality to estimate the causal relationship between stock market index and monetary indicators (exchange rate and M2) before and during the global financial crisis for Nigeria, using monthly data for the period 2001–2011. Results suggest absence of long-run relationship before and during the crisis. The Granger-causality tests show a uni-directional causality running from M2 to ASI before the crisis while during the period of the crisis there is absence of causality between the variables. This suggests that ASI show responsiveness to M2. Thus, absence of the direct …

Investigating Chaos In The Nigerian Asset And Resource Management (Arm) Discovery Fund, Ibiyinka A. Fuwape, Samuel T. Ogunjo

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This paper investigates chaos in a Nigerian mutual fund, Asset and Resource Management Company Limited (ARM) for a period of eleven years. The existence of chaotic signals in the data was identified by the reconstruction of the phase space of the daily closing price of the fund and the delay time was quantified using mutual information function and the embedding dimension by the false nearest neighbours, where the values were identified to be 15 and 20 respectively. The presence of chaotic signals in the ARM data was further confirmed by the correlation dimension method which yielded a dimension of 2.2 …

Modeling The Nigerian Inflation Rates Using Periodogram And Fourier Series Analysis, Chukwuemeka O. Omekara,, Emmanuel J. Ekpenyong, Micheal P. Ekerete

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This work considers the application of Periodogram and Fourier Series Analysis to model all-items monthly inflation rates in Nigeria from 2003 to 2011. The main objectives are to identify inflation cycles, fit a suitable model to the data and make forecasts of future values. To achieve these objectives, monthly all-items inflation rates for the period were obtained from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) website. Periodogram and Fourier series methods of analysis are used to analyze the data. Based on the analysis, it was found that inflation cycle within the period was fifty one (51) months, which coincides with the …

Nigerian Stock Index: A Search For Optimal Garch Model Using High Frequency Data, Olaoluwa Simon Yaya

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This paper attempts to fit the best Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedastic (GARCH) model for All Share Index (ASI) of Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE) returns. A search is made on various GARCH variants specified on the assumptions of stationarity and asymmetry. Fractionally integrated types are also considered to capture the possibility of return series having property of long range dependency. The parameter estimations are carried out on the assumptions of normality and non-normality of GARCH innovations, with models and forecasts evaluated using information criteria and loss functions respectively. Under normality assumption, Hyperbolic GARCH (HYGARCH(1,d,1)) model is selected and Integrated GARCH (IGARCH(1,1)) …

Time Series Modeling Of Nigeria External Reserves, Iheanyichukwu S. Iwueze, Eleazar C. Nwogu, Valentine U. Nlebedim

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This paper discusses the levels and trend of external reserves in Nigeria. The relevance of this lies in the fact that it could help to monitor the reserves and throw early warning signal about any economic crisis. Monthly data on Nigeria external reserves for the period January 1999 to December, 2008 derived from the 2008 CBN Statistical Bulletin was analyzed using ARIMA model. Results of the analyses show that (i) the data requires logarithmic transformation to stabilize the variance and make the distribution normal (ii) the appropriate model that best describes the pattern in the transformed data is the Autoregressive- …

A Markov Decision Process Approach To Optimal Control Of A Multi-Level Hierarchical Manpower System, Akaninyene U. Udom

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

A recurrent problem in manpower control is how to attain the desired structural configuration in an optimal way, since it is possible to reach a desired structural configuration using different control inputs. The major aim of this paper is to develop a Markov Decision Process for optimal control of a Multi-level Hierarchical Manpower System (MHMS) by promotion and interdepartmental transfers. This is examined under control by intervention and contraction cost Markov Decision Process.

Practical Guidelines For The Comprehensive Analysis Of Chip-Seq Data, Timonthy Bailey, Pawel Krajewski, Istvan Ladunga, Celine Lefebvre, Qunhua Li, Tao Liu, Pedro Madrigal, Cenny Taslim, Jie Zhang

Department of Statistics: Faculty Publications

Mapping the chromosomal locations of transcription factors, nucleosomes, histone modifications, chromatin remodeling enzymes, chaperones, and polymerases is one of the key tasks of modern biology, as evidenced by the Encyclopedia of DNA Elements (ENCODE) Project. To this end, chromatin immunoprecipitation followed by high-throughput sequencing (ChIP-seq) is the standard methodology. Mapping such protein-DNA interactions in vivo using ChIP-seq presents multiple challenges not only in sample preparation and sequencing but also for computational analysis. Here, we present step-by-step guidelines for the computational analysis of ChIP-seq data. We address all the major steps in the analysis of ChIP-seq data: sequencing depth selection, quality …

Research On The Establishment Of Promulgation System Of Maritime Safety Information In Chengshan Jiao Vts Center, Yunjiang Liu

Maritime Safety & Environment Management Dissertations (Dalian)

No abstract provided.

Smart Sampling Of Noble Gases To Detect Underground Nuclear Explosions, Lindsey M. Skelton, Steven Hunter, Charles Carrigan

STAR Program Research Presentations

One element of the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty (CTBT) is the provision for an on site inspection (OSI). The purpose of an OSI is to monitor for the occurrence of an underground nuclear explosion (UNE) in violation of the treaty. Detection of certain rare radioactive noble gases transported to the surface can be an excellent indicator of a UNE. These gases can be very difficult to capture and require specialized sampling methods. This study aims to determine an algorithm that will increase the efficiency of the subsurface gas sampling technique being used to detect UNEs. Continuous sampling of subsurface …

Verifying R Code And Visualizing Power Grid Data: Signature Quality Metrics And Gui Development, Emmanuel C. Herrera, Brett Amidan

STAR Program Research Presentations

Verifying R code and visualizing Power Grid data:

Signature Quality Metrics and GUI development

Author: Emmanuel Herrera

Mentors: Brett Amidan and Landon Sego

There are many bioforensic signatures produced by analytical instruments that are expensive to produce and maintain accuracy. SQM is an R package which will provide subject matter experts with tools that will help them assess the specific quality of signatures and determine their accuracy, utility and cost by simple function calls. Many published academic papers were surveyed on the kinds of metrics already being implemented. Once understood how some metrics measured accuracy, the SQM package was duplicated …

Level Crossing Times In Mathematical Finance, Ofosuhene Osei

Electronic Theses and Dissertations

Level crossing times and their applications in finance are of importance, given certain threshold levels that represent the "desirable" or "sell" values of a stock. In this thesis, we make use of Wald's lemmas and various deep results from renewal theory, in the context of finance, in modelling the growth of a portfolio of stocks. Several models are employed .

Drosophila Melanogaster Selection For Survival After Infection With Bacillus Cereus Spores: Evolutionary Genetic And Phenotypic Investigations Of Respiration And Movement, Junjie Ma, Andrew K. Benson, Stephen D. Kachman, Deidra J. Jacobsen, Lawrence G. Harshman

Department of Statistics: Faculty Publications

Laboratory populations of D.melanogaster have been subjected to selection for survival after live spores of B. cereus were introduced as a pathogenic agent. The present study was designed to investigate correlated traits: respiration as ametabolic trait and movement as a behavioral trait.An underlying hypothesiswas that the evolution of increased survival after B. cereus infection exerts ametabolic cost associated with elevated immunity and this would be detected by increased respiration rates. There was support for this hypothesis in the male response to selection, but not for selected-line females. Two phenotypic effects were also observed in the study. Females especially showed a …

The Change In Differing Leukocyte Populations During Vaccination To Bovine Respiratory Disease And Their Correlations With Lung Scores, Health Records, And Average Daily Gain, R. J. Leach, C. G. Chitko-Mckown, G. L. Bennett, S. A. Jones, Stephen D. Kachman, J. W. Keele, K. A. Leymaster, R. M. Thallman, L. A. Kuehn

Department of Statistics: Faculty Publications

Bovine respiratory disease (BRD) is the most economically important disease in U.S. feedlots. Infection can result in morbidity, mortality, and reduced average daily gain. Cheap and reliable genetic methods of prediction and protection from BRD would be highly advantageous to the industry. The immune response may correlate with BRD incidence. Cattle (n = 2,182) were vaccinated against common viral and bacterial pathogens of BRD. Two blood samples were collected, one during booster vaccination and one 21d later, enabling 3 phenotypes for each trait [prebooster (pre), postbooster (post), and delta (post minus pre)]. From the blood samples innate and adaptive responses …