Applied Statistics Commons^™

Bayesian Statistics: Origins And Applications, Evelyn Pulla

Publications and Research

Bayesian Statistics applies Bayes' Theorem to update beliefs through new evidence. In this project, I explored how Bayesian Statistics applies into real supporting decision-making under uncertainty. By solving problems using data, I was able to realize how prior knowledge and evidence collaborate to make better conclusions. The project also demonstrates how Bayesian reasoning corrects our intuition to make decisions based on logical reasoning. Through this project, I was able to learn why using probability to make informed decisions matters both in science and real life.

Statistics - What Does My Data Say About Me?, Taylor Gadsden-Deterville

Student Scholar Symposium Abstracts and Posters

For my Introduction to Statistics Class, I have been tasked with collecting unique, personal data to give insight into my daily routine. I decided to record nine different outcomes (two qualitative and seven quantitative). On February 6, 2025, I began with a blank Excel sheet, and so far, I have 57 full days of data collected. I will continue monitoring my findings for the remainder of the Spring 2025 Semester. Per my project instructions, I must include tables and graphs for my qualitative and quantitative outcomes. So far, I have collected daily quantitative data on my screen time (Instagram and …

Deleting Values May Either Increase Or Decrease Variance, David L. Farnsworth

Articles

The impact upon variance when a value is deleted is addressed. It is shown that the cutoff for the deleted value yielding an increase or a decrease in variance is approximately one standard deviation from the mean for a univariate random variable with equally distributed probability on a finite set of elements and for a univariate set of observations. The influence of truncation of the domain for such a discrete random variable and for observations is considered.

Impacts Of Cognitive Workload On Veteran Driver Reaction Time: Predictive Modeling Using Bayesian And Machine Learning Methods, Kenneth Ofosu-Kwabe

All Theses

In high-demand environments, the ability to manage cognitive workload can mean the difference between optimal or safe performance and critical failure or accidents. Veterans face an elevated risk of fatal motor vehicle accidents due to post-deployment stress, combat-related injuries, and challenges readjusting to civilian driving. This study explores how cognitive workload affects reaction time performance using a driving simulator by collecting and analyzing subjective workload ratings (using the NASA-TLX survey), physiological signals from eye-tracking and performance data from a sample of 28 Veterans.

We examined how task difficulty, cognitive indicators and personal attributes influence reaction times across an interactive driving …

Multimodal Benchmarking For Ncaa Basketball, Brendan Barnett

Honors Scholar Theses

We present the first multimodal, multitask benchmark for NCAA basketball, synthesizing structured statistical features with large language model (LLM)-generated game summaries across 19,739 games spanning four NCAA Division I seasons (2021--2025). We evaluate three model families---XGBoost, deep neural networks, and Transformers---under tabular-only and early-fusion settings to measure the impact of LLM-derived textual embeddings. To assess practical utility, we simulate fixed-stake and Kelly criterion-based betting strategies using historical bookmaker odds, analyzing both profitability and downside risk via Monte Carlo simulation. Our results show that XGBoost with early-fusion achieves the highest return on investment and the lowest risk of loss. This work …

Investigating Students’ Proficiency Across Statistical Software And Preferences Of Statistical Software Design, Sabrina White

Honors College Theses

This paper investigated students’ perceptions of their proficiency with statistical software applications and their preferences regarding software features. Results indicated that students’ statistical and coding experience, as well as the specific application used, did not significantly influence their self-perceived proficiency. This suggests that it may be more effective to focus on building student skills within a chosen application, rather than tailoring the application to match existing student capabilities. While students showed clear preferences for certain features, favoring clarity over depth, flexibility over safeguards, and built-in checks over unrestricted freedom, these preferences generally leaned toward balanced design rather than extremes. This …

Expressive And Interpretable User Engagement Prediction Using Multivariate Survival Processes, Akshay Aravamudan

Theses and Dissertations

The ability to characterize how information diffuses online is of paramount importance to stakeholders that are interested in tasks such as proposing solutions for mitigating and countering dis/misinformation, predicting user engagement of content in social media, planning marketing campaigns to roll-out products and planning dissemination of political campaign messaging among others. One such facet of learning the dynamics of information diffusion is the ability to predict user engagement or the popularity of a single piece of information as it spreads through an online medium. Existing works in this regard mainly either obfuscate user level information or utilize frameworks that are …

Decoding The Algorithm: The Mathematics Behind Tiktok’S Short-Form Content Success, Ashley N. Lynch

Honors Scholar Theses

Within the realm of social networks, TikTok has become the central hub for short-form video content. The network’s unique ability to capture individual preferences using predictive analytics has greatly contributed to its massive success, allowing the company to optimize its performance and content personalization. In an age where digital media have such a significant influence on society, it is essential that users develop an understanding of how social network algorithms function to make more informed online decisions. Although TikTok’s technological system is primarily undisclosed, the platform certifiably leverages several key mathematical principles within its algorithm to achieve its core goals …

Leveraging Historical Data For Estimating Genetic Gain And Implementing Genomic Selection In A Student Led Barley Breeding Program, Sydney Graham

Department of Statistics: Dissertations, Theses, and Student Research

In Nebraska, winter feed barley presents an emerging market for producers and an opportunity to diversify cropping systems. The University of Nebraska Barley Breeding Program aims to develop high-yielding, winter-hardy varieties. A unique aspect of this program is that doctoral students serve as barley breeders and are responsible for crossing, data collection, and advancement decisions. While this provides hands-on experience for the students, the impact of student leadership has not been examined.

This study used a historical data set to evaluate the realized genetic gain of the breeding program, and as a training population for genomic selection. The dataset consisted …

Application Of Deep Learning On Gage R&R For Anomaly Detection, Oluwatope Richard Ojo

Electronic Theses and Dissertations

This thesis explores the application of deep learning techniques, specifically autoencoder based models, to enhance anomaly detection within Gage Repeatability and Reproducibility (Gage R&R) studies—an essential component of Measurement System Analysis (MSA) in quality engineering. Traditional Gage R&R methodologies, while effective for linear and low-dimensional data, exhibit limitations in detecting subtle, nonlinear variations in complex measurement systems. To address this challenge, an unsupervised autoencoder was developed and trained on a synthetically generated dataset comprising 2,500 voltage measurements (5V and 33V) derived using Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs) based on real-world manufacturing data measurements.

The proposed autoencoder model achieved a 95th percentile-based …

Latent Variable Dyadic Regression Models For Predicting Over/Under Bets In Sports Betting, Alexcia Trejo

Graduate Theses and Dissertations

This thesis explores the use of latent factor models to uncover hidden structures in pair wise outcomes derived from Over/Under betting markets in sports betting. Specifically, we implement and evaluate the Eigen model, a latent space model that represents dyadic data using node-specific vectors whose inner product govern edge probabilities. By modeling relationships between teams as adjacency matrices of binary outcomes, we investigate the extent to which the Eigen model captures both homophily, the tendency of similar teams to yield consistent betting results, and stochastic equivalence, where different teams exhibit indistinguishable patterns of Over/Under outcomes. A Bayesian formulation of the …

Opioid Epidemic In Maine: An Analysis Of Increasing Overdose-Related Deaths Following The Coronavirus, Aysel S. Hamlin

Thinking Matters Symposium

The rate of drug overdose resulting in death doubled in Maine following the COVID-19 pandemic from the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic in late 2019 through 2022. The correlation between increased isolation during the pandemic and overdose death rates sheds a concerning light on the insufficient resources for people struggling with Opioid Use Disorder (OUD) throughout Maine. The increasing trade and access to fentanyl following the pandemic accounted for the majority of drug-related deaths in Maine in 2021 and 2022. This study examines the need for long-term access to drug treatment in rural and urban Maine, both environments with varying …

Mortgage Default Classification Modeling For Variable Analysis, Brendan R. Goggins

Honors College Theses

The financial crisis of the early 2000’s is a prime example of the severe consequences that mortgage default and borrower insolvency can have on economies at large. Mortgage default specifically is a prime case with the popularization of mortgage backed securities and the commonality of this loan structure. Multiple hypotheses and models have been formed to understand the reasons, causes, and consequences of mortgage default. This paper uses both machine learning and statistical classification models to inform an understanding of the variables most significant and impactful to the default outcome of mortgages. Consideration is given to both loan-level microeconomic variables …

A Text Mining And Sentiment Analysis Of Valuable Cie Texts Using R, Eric Sugarman, Ethan Turber-Ortiz, Hannah Quinn

Mathematics, Computer Science & Statistics Presentations

The purpose of this project was to perform a sentiment analysis of three texts used in Ursinus College's Common Intellectual Experience (CIE) course: Between the World and Me by Ta-Nehisi Coates, The New Jim Crow by Michelle Alexander and Discourse on Method by Rene Descartes. Word count and word cloud analysis were also performed on the texts as well as term frequency and bigram analysis.

Enhancing Animal Shelter Operations With Time Series And Machine Learning, Sakava L. Kiv, Donald L. Anderson, Shivam Negi, Jacquelyn Cheun

SMU Data Science Review

Enhancing animal shelter operations through machine learning involves employing a variety of advanced techniques aimed at increasing efficiency, promoting animal welfare, and optimizing resource allocation. This paper explores predictive analytics for adoption rates using regression models to estimate the likelihood of adoption based on historical data, encompassing variables such as breed, health status, and previous adoption trends. Additionally, classification algorithms are utilized to categorize animals by adoption probability, facilitating better resources and marketing prioritization. Clustering algorithms are employed to group animals according to behavior patterns and/or physical health, enabling tailored medical care and enrichment activities that improve their mental and …

Profiting On The Kentucky Derby, Bailey Korfhage

Undergraduate Theses

This paper analyzes the quantitative data of horses that ran in the Kentucky Derby to recognize statistically significant variables to predict the horse that comes in first or in-the-money. This analysis is specific to the post-implementation of the points system that began for the 2013 Kentucky Derby. Churchill Downs, the host of the Kentucky Derby, changed the methodology of qualification for a horse to enter the race; instead of qualifying with highest earnings in lifetime starts, the institution implemented a points system that awarded different proportions of points depending on the value of various prep races leading up to the …

Identifying The Factors Affecting The Survival Of Trauma Patients Using Logistic Regression Analysis, Maggie Smith

Honors College Theses

There is a broad interest among researchers and clinicians in identifying factors affecting clinical outcomes of patients with physical trauma. Numerous factors affect Hospital Discharge Status (HDS), one of the main binary outcome variables of trauma patients. Logistic regression is one of the widely used methods to analyze relationships between a set of predictors with a binary outcome. In this study, a logistic regression model is built for HDS. Predictors include arrival time, age, trauma level, injury severity score, arrival heart rate, arrival blood pressure, length of hospital stay, time from injury to arrival at Billings Clinic (BC), patient transfer …

A Machine-Learning Tool-Supported Methodology For Nonprofit Donor Analysis, Corbin Weiss

Campus Research Month

We developed a machine-learning tool-supported methodology for modeling the nonprofit donor relationship. This approach was demonstrated in the case of a US-based nonprofit. Conclusions were drawn from this example and tool-support provided for use by other nonprofits.

Predicting Capture And Survival Probabilities Of The Arizona Tiger Salamander: A Comparison Of Capture-Recapture Models, Brittney Nelson

Scholars Week

Capture-recapture models are essential tools for estimating population dynamics in ecological studies. A fundamental component of these models is the capture history matrix, which records individual detection over time and serves as the basis for estimating survival and capture probabilities. This presentation explores three statistical approaches to these estimations: the Cormack-Jolly-Seber (CJS) model, the Hidden Markov Model (HMM) for CJS, and the Bayesian CJS model. The CJS model provides a likelihood-based framework for estimation, and the HMM CJS incorporates latent states into the model to account for uncertainty in detection. The Bayesian CJS extends this same analysis by integrating prior …

Quarterback Statistics Vs. Season Success, Brendan Woods

Mathematics Senior Capstone Papers

The purpose of this research is to determine which quarterback statistic most significantly impacts team success in the National Football League. By analyzing data from quarterbacks with at least 100 pass attempts per season from 2006 to 2023, we examine the relationship between quarterback rating, passer rating, completion percentage, and TD-INT ratio with end-of-season power rankings. We ran the data through multiple linear regression models to identify which statistic has the strongest correlation with team performance. Our model considers variations across different seasons and accounts for statistical trends over time. With over 17 seasons of data analyzed, further exploration could …