Applied Statistics Commons^™

Predicting The Next Us President By Simulating The Electoral College, Boyan Kostadinov

Publications and Research

We develop a simulation model for predicting the outcome of the US Presidential election based on simulating the distribution of the Electoral College. The simulation model has two parts: (a) estimating the probabilities for a given candidate to win each state and DC, based on state polls, and (b) estimating the probability that a given candidate will win at least 270 electoral votes, and thus win the White House. All simulations are coded using the high-level, open-source programming language R. One of the goals of this paper is to promote computational thinking in any STEM field by illustrating how probabilistic …

Burden Of Rheumatoid Arthritis Among Us Medicare Population: Co-Morbidities, Health-Care Resource Utilization And Costs, Chieh-I Chen, Li Wang, Wenhui Wei, Huseyin Yuce, Kristine Phillips

Publications and Research

Objectives. The study aimed to assess the burden of RA among the US Medicare population (aged 65 years) by comparing co-morbidities, health-care resource utilization (HCRU) and costs against matched non-RA Medicare patients.

Methods. Data were obtained from the Medicare fee-for-service claims database from 2010 to 2013. RA Medicare patients were identically matched with Medicare patients without RA (controls) based on demographics. Bivariate analyses were conducted to examine differences between cohorts for comorbidities, HCRU and costs. A generalized linear model was used to test relationships between patient-level characteristics, HCRU and costs.

Results. The study population included 115 867 RA patients and …

Modeling Mayfly Nymph Length Distribution And Population Dynamics Across A Gradient Of Stream Temperatures And Stream Types, Jeremy Anthony, Jennifer Baccam, Imanuel Bier, Emily Gregg, Leif Halverson, Ryan Mulcahy, Emmanuel Okanla, Samira A. Osman, Adam R. Pancoast, Kevin C. Schultz, Alex Sushko, Jennifer Vorarath, Yia Vue, Austin Wagner, Emily Gaenzle Schilling, John M. Zobitz

Spora: A Journal of Biomathematics

We analyze a process-based temperature model for the length distribution and population over time of mayfly nymphs. Model parameters are estimated using a Markov Chain Monte Carlo parameter estimation method utilizing length distribution data at five different stream sites. Two different models (a standard exponential model and a modified Weibull model) of mayfly mortality are evaluated, where in both cases mayfly length growth is a function of stream temperature. Based on model-data comparisons to the modeled length distribution and the Bayesian Information Criterion, we found that approaches that length distribution data can reliably estimate 2–3 model parameters. Future model development …

Modeling Mayfly Nymph Length Distribution And Population Dynamics Across A Gradient Of Stream Temperatures And Stream Types, Jeremy Anthony, Jennifer Baccam, Imanuel Bier, Emily Gregg, Leif Halverson, Ryan Mulcahy, Emmanuel Okanla, Samira A. Osman, Adam R. Pancoast, Kevin C. Schultz, Alex Sushko, Jennifer Vorarath, Yia Vue, Austin Wagner, Emily Gaenzle Schilling, John Zobitz

Faculty Authored Articles

We analyze a process-based temperature model for the length distribution and population over time of mayfly nymphs. Model parameters are estimated using a Markov Chain Monte Carlo parameter estimation method utilizing length distribution data at five different stream sites. Two different models (a standard exponential model and a modified Weibull model) of mayfly mortality are evaluated, where in both cases mayfly length growth is a function of stream temperature. Based on model-data comparisons to the modeled length distribution and the Bayesian Information Criterion, we found that approaches that length distribution data can reliably estimate 2–3 model parameters. Future model development …

A Preliminary Study Of Smithport Plain Bottle Morphology In The Southern Caddo Area, Robert Z. Selden Jr.

CRHR: Archaeology

This study expands upon a previous analysis of the Clarence H. Webb collection, which resulted in the identification of two discrete shapes used in the manufacture of the base and body of Smithport Plain bottles. The sample includes the Smithport Plain bottles from the Webb collection, and four new bottles: two previously repatriated specimens in the Pohler Collection, and two from the Mitchell site (41BW4) to test whether those specimens align morphologically with the Belcher Mound or Smithport Landing specimens. Results indicate significant allometry and a significant difference in Smithport Plain body and base shapes for bottles produced at the …

X-Ray Spectroscopy Of Nio And Nanodiamond At Ssrl, Jackson Earl

STAR Program Research Presentations

The first aspect of this research project focuses on investigating the surface chemistry of high pressure high temperature (HPHT) nanodiamond by using X-ray spectroscopy techniques at the Stanford Synchrotron Radiation Lightsource (SSRL). HPHT nanodiamond is being examined as a biosensing tool for electric field detection based on the fluorescent nitrogen vacancy center hosted within diamond. With use of the transition edge spectrometer (TES), a state-of-the-art X-ray fluorescence detector, we are able to probe the surface and bulk properties of diamond. Preliminary work using density functional theory (DFT) has been done, offering insight into ground state energies and electronic structure. DFT …

Gene × Environment Interaction: What Exactly Are We Talking About?, David S. Moore

Pitzer Faculty Publications and Research

An ambiguity exists in how psychological scientists use the word “interaction.” This word can refer to physical interactions between components that constitute the mechanisms in complex systems, but it can also refer to statistical interactions revealed by General Linear Statistical Models (e.g., Analyses of Variance). Statistical interactions indicate that the nature of the relationship between two variables depends on a third variable, but the discovery of such interactions does not constitute evidence of physical interactions between components in a system. Studies conducted using traditional behavioral genetics methods sometimes reveal statistical interactions between genes and environments, but the presence or absence …

A Proposed Taxonomy For The Systems Statistical Engineering Body Of Knowledge, Teddy Steven Cotter

Engineering Management & Systems Engineering Faculty Publications

In the ASEM-IAC 2012, Cotter (2012) identified the gaps in knowledge that statistical engineering needs to address, explored additional gaps in knowledge not addressed in the prior works, and set forth a working definition of and body of knowledge for statistical engineering. In the ASEM-IAC 2015, Cotter (2015) proposed a systemic causal Bayesian hierarchical model that addressed the knowledge gap needed to integrate deterministic mathematical engineering causal models within a stochastic framework. Missing, however, is the framework for specifying the hierarchical qualitative systems structures necessary and sufficient for specifying systemic causal Bayesian hierarchical models. In the ASEM-IAC 2016, Cotter (2016) …

Borrowing Capacity, Financial Instability, And Contagion: Case Study Of The U.S. Subprime Mortgage Crisis, Youngna Choi

Department of Applied Mathematics and Statistics Faculty Scholarship and Creative Works

We use the case of the 2007 United States subprime mortgage crisis to investigate the impact of borrowing capacity limitations on financial instability and contagion. We divide an economy into agents that interact via flow of funds and express the financial instability level of each agent as a function of time derivatives of its wealth, cash inflows, and borrowing capacity. We show that among these factors, the borrowing capacity, which is determined by other economic constraints, has the largest impact on financial instability. It is suggested that borrowing capacity limitations could even cause contagion through feedback loop formed by flow …

The Impact Of Truncating Data On The Predictive Ability For Single-Step Genomic Best Linear Unbiased Prediction, Jeremy T. Howard, Thomas A. Rathje, Caitlyn E. Bruns, Danielle F. Wilson-Wells, Stephen D. Kachman, Matthew L. Spangler

Department of Animal Science: Faculty Publications

Simulated and swine industry data sets were utilized to assess the impact of removing older data on the predictive ability of selection candidate estimated breeding values (EBV) when using single-step genomic best linear unbiased prediction (ssGBLUP). Simulated data included thirty replicates designed to mimic the structure of swine data sets. For the simulated data, varying amounts of data were truncated based on the number of ancestral generations back from the selection candidates. The swine data sets consisted of phenotypic and genotypic records for three traits across two breeds on animals born from 2003 to 2017. Phenotypes and genotypes were iteratively …

Psychometric Properties Of A Working Memory Span Task, Juan M. Alzate Vanegas

Honors Undergraduate Theses

The intent of this thesis is to examine the psychometric properties of a complex span task (CST) developed to measure working memory capacity (WMC) using measurements obtained from a sample of 68 undergraduate students at the University of Central Florida. The Grocery List Task (GLT) promises several design improvements over traditional CSTs in a prior study about individual differences in WMC and distraction effects on driving performance, and it offers potential benefits for studying WMC as well as the serial-position effect. Currently, the working memory system is composed of domain-general memorial storage processes and information-processing, which involves the use of …

Improved Methods And Selecting Classification Types For Time-Dependent Covariates In The Marginal Analysis Of Longitudinal Data, I-Chen Chen

Theses and Dissertations--Epidemiology and Biostatistics

Generalized estimating equations (GEE) are popularly utilized for the marginal analysis of longitudinal data. In order to obtain consistent regression parameter estimates, these estimating equations must be unbiased. However, when certain types of time-dependent covariates are presented, these equations can be biased unless an independence working correlation structure is employed. Moreover, in this case regression parameter estimation can be very inefficient because not all valid moment conditions are incorporated within the corresponding estimating equations. Therefore, approaches using the generalized method of moments or quadratic inference functions have been proposed for utilizing all valid moment conditions. However, we have found that …

A Probability Model For Strategic Bidding On The Price Is Right, Paul H. Kvam

Department of Math & Statistics Faculty Publications

The TV game show “The Price is Right” features a bidding auction called “Contestants’ Row” that rewards the player (out of 4) who bids closest to an item’s value, without overbidding. This paper considers ways in which players can maximize a winning probability based on the player's bidding order. We consider marginal strategies in which players assume opponents are bidding individually perceived values of the merchandise. Based on preceding bids of others, players have information available to create strategies. We consider conditional strategies in which players adjust bids knowing other players are using strategies. The last bidder has a large …

Step-Selection Functions For Modeling Animal Movement -- Case Study: African Buffalo, Maia Adar

CMC Senior Theses

Understanding what factors influence wildlife movement allows landscape planners to make informed decisions that benefit both animals and humans. New quantitative methods, such as step-selection functions, provide valuable objective analyses of wildlife connectivity. This paper provides a framework for creating a step-selection function and demonstrates its use in a case study. The first section provides a general introduction about wildlife connectivity research. The second section explains the math behind the step-selection function using a simple example. The last section gives the results of a step-selection model for African buffalo in the Kavango Zambezi Transfrontier Conservation Area. Buffalo were found to …

Automated Tree-Level Forest Quantification Using Airborne Lidar, Hamid Hamraz

Theses and Dissertations--Computer Science

Traditional forest management relies on a small field sample and interpretation of aerial photography that not only are costly to execute but also yield inaccurate estimates of the entire forest in question. Airborne light detection and ranging (LiDAR) is a remote sensing technology that records point clouds representing the 3D structure of a forest canopy and the terrain underneath. We present a method for segmenting individual trees from the LiDAR point clouds without making prior assumptions about tree crown shapes and sizes. We then present a method that vertically stratifies the point cloud to an overstory and multiple understory tree …

Modeling And Mapping Location-Dependent Human Appearance, Zachary Bessinger

Theses and Dissertations--Computer Science

Human appearance is highly variable and depends on individual preferences, such as fashion, facial expression, and makeup. These preferences depend on many factors including a person's sense of style, what they are doing, and the weather. These factors, in turn, are dependent upon geographic location and time. In our work, we build computational models to learn the relationship between human appearance, geographic location, and time. The primary contributions are a framework for collecting and processing geotagged imagery of people, a large dataset collected by our framework, and several generative and discriminative models that use our dataset to learn the relationship …

Occurrence And Attributes Of Two Echinoderm-Bearing Faunas From The Upper Mississippian (Chesterian; Lower Serpukhovian) Ramey Creek Member, Slade Formation, Eastern Kentucky, U.S.A., Ann Well Harris

Theses and Dissertations--Earth and Environmental Sciences

Well-preserved echinoderm faunas are rare in the fossil record, and when uncovered, understanding their occurrence can be useful in interpreting other faunas. In this study, two such faunas of the same age from separate localities in the shallow-marine Ramey Creek Member of the Slade Formation in the Upper Mississippian (Chesterian) rocks of eastern Kentucky are examined. Of the more than 5,000 fossil specimens from both localities, only 9–34 percent were echinoderms from 3–5 classes. Nine non-echinoderm (8 invertebrate and one vertebrate) classes occurred at both localities, but of these, bryozoans, brachiopods and sponges dominated. To understand the attributes of both …

Accounting For Matching Uncertainty In Photographic Identification Studies Of Wild Animals, Amanda R. Ellis

Theses and Dissertations--Statistics

I consider statistical modelling of data gathered by photographic identification in mark-recapture studies and propose a new method that incorporates the inherent uncertainty of photographic identification in the estimation of abundance, survival and recruitment. A hierarchical model is proposed which accepts scores assigned to pairs of photographs by pattern recognition algorithms as data and allows for uncertainty in matching photographs based on these scores. The new models incorporate latent capture histories that are treated as unknown random variables informed by the data, contrasting past models having the capture histories being fixed. The methods properly account for uncertainty in the matching …

The Family Of Conditional Penalized Methods With Their Application In Sufficient Variable Selection, Jin Xie

Theses and Dissertations--Statistics

When scientists know in advance that some features (variables) are important in modeling a data, then these important features should be kept in the model. How can we utilize this prior information to effectively find other important features? This dissertation is to provide a solution, using such prior information. We propose the Conditional Adaptive Lasso (CAL) estimates to exploit this knowledge. By choosing a meaningful conditioning set, namely the prior information, CAL shows better performance in both variable selection and model estimation. We also propose Sufficient Conditional Adaptive Lasso Variable Screening (SCAL-VS) and Conditioning Set Sufficient Conditional Adaptive Lasso Variable …

Mixtures-Of-Regressions With Measurement Error, Xiaoqiong Fang

Theses and Dissertations--Statistics

Finite Mixture model has been studied for a long time, however, traditional methods assume that the variables are measured without error. Mixtures-of-regression model with measurement error imposes challenges to the statisticians, since both the mixture structure and the existence of measurement error can lead to inconsistent estimate for the regression coefficients. In order to solve the inconsistency, We propose series of methods to estimate the mixture likelihood of the mixtures-of-regressions model when there is measurement error, both in the responses and predictors. Different estimators of the parameters are derived and compared with respect to their relative efficiencies. The simulation results …