Applied Statistics Commons^™

(R2174) A Stationary First-Order Autoregressive Process With New Discrete Lindley Marginal Distribution, Tégawendé Martin Kabore, Jean-Etienne Ouindllassida Ouédraogo

Applications and Applied Mathematics: An International Journal (AAM)

This paper introduces a new stationary first-order autoregressive integer-valued process with a marginal distribution following the New Discrete Lindley distribution, referred to as NDLINAR( 1). The process is developed to model over-dispersed count time series exhibiting a mixed behavior arising from the combination of multiple distributions. Its statistical properties are thoroughly investigated, and the parameters are estimated using conditional maximum likelihood. The asymptotic properties of the estimators are also analyzed. The performance of the proposed model is evaluated by comparing it with other existing INAR(1) processes through applications to real datasets. Results demonstrate that the NDL-INAR(1) process effectively captures the …

Mycelial Modeling: Teaching Biology Students Statistical Modeling With Mushrooms, Colette Wolf

University Honors Theses

This paper summarizes and describes the development of a set of learning materials that were created to educate students and professionals from other fields in statistical modeling techniques. These materials are primarily aimed at biology students, but are still intended to be useful for anyone who is interested in incorporating decision trees and random forest models into their personal research in the future. By directing the reader towards the JMP software, these materials navigate around the statistical knowledge base and coding implementation practices that otherwise would serve as a barrier to learning statistical modeling techniques, and instead focus on the …

Hot Hands Or Chance Happenings? A Simulation-Based Approach For Wnba Teams, Ruben Jimenez

Master's Theses

The hot hand is a polarizing topic in basketball analytics: fans, stakeholders, and even players themselves assert confidently their belief or disbelief in the idea that players who perform well will continue to do so over an extended period of time. Statistical research has been conducted since as early as 1985 to attempt to disprove or prove the existence of this phenomenon. More recent works have refuted the earliest objections to the hot hand’s existence, with conclusions aided by robust simulation techniques. In this work, we compare hypothesis tests using multiple simulation techniques to explore the hot hand at the …

Structured Dynamic Factor Analysis Of Environmental Time Series With Application To Morro Bay Estuary, Jose Garcia

Master's Theses

This thesis develops a structured dynamic factor analysis (sDFA) framework for decomposing multivariate environmental time series into latent biological and physical components. The methodology is applied to five years of high-resolution passive monitoring data collected from two sites in Morro Bay, California from 2020 through 2024. Relative contribution indices are developed based on the structured DFA that measure how much each latent process contributes to each observed variable at any given time. Structured DFA models fit to the application data suggest site-specific patterns in how biological and physical processes affect water quality variables. At the bay mouth location, physical processes …

Multimodal Machine Learning For Soil Burn Severity Mapping Across California Wildfires, Sanjana Checker

Master's Theses

Accurate mapping of soil burn severity (SBS) is critical for post-fire watershed management, erosion risk assessment, and ecological recovery planning, yet traditional field-based approaches remain costly, time-intensive, and spatially limited. This thesis presents a machine learning pipeline for wall-to-wall SBS classification across California wildfires using multi-sensor satellite imagery, terrain derivatives, and bioclimatic covariates. Field-collected SBS observations (n = 2,180) from 52 wildfires occur- ring between 2013 and 2025, sourced from the U.S. Forest Service and CAL FIRE, were used to train and evaluate multiple classification architectures within a Google Earth Engine and Google Cloud-based prediction framework. After upsampling the unburned …

Developing A Humpback Whale Vocalization Detector Using Machine Learning Models, Lucas Kantorowski

Master's Theses

Humpback whale songs are notoriously complex. Identification of humpback whale song units requires bioacousticians to tediously listen, analyze, and annotate collected sound data. Even sparse data requires listening to the entirety of the collected acoustic data. In this study, three hours of audio containing over one-thousand humpback whale song units was collected in Monterey Bay, California.

Prior studies have seen success using convolutional neural networks by performing image classification on hundreds of hours worth of spectrograms. Our study uses traditional machine learning models, as they are less computationally demanding, and require less data.

We use time splitting and Mel-frequency cepstrum …

Muon Lifetime: Theory, Experiment, And Simulation, Soren Agustin Munoz

Physics

This senior project investigates the muon lifetime through three complementary approaches: theoretical calculation, laboratory measurement, and computational simulation. The theoretical component develops the necessary background from relativistic field theory to the effective weak interaction, culminating in the leading-order Fermi-theory prediction of τ ≈ 2.2 μs, which explains why the muon lifetime lies on the microsecond scale.

The experimental component measures the lifetime of stopped cosmic-ray muons using a plastic scintillator, photomultiplier tube, and analog timing electronics. A binned Poisson likelihood fit to the primary 15-day acquisition run τ = 2.17^+0.03_-0.09 μs, consistent with the accepted value within the …

Crab: A Novel Clustering Score Using Clustering With Rivals And Buddies For Unsupervised Learning, Allen Choi

Master's Theses

Unsupervised clustering algorithms today are used across a wide variety of fields such as biology, engineering, and industry in order to classify observations into groups where labels are not provided. This can provide important latent information regarding the observations within groups, as well as insight regarding the groups themselves. In order to judge the optimal number of clusters for an unsupervised clustering algorithm, many methods exist such as the Elbow Method and Silhouette Score; however, these methods come with drawbacks and are not necessarily flexible across many unsupervised methods. We present a novel clustering score framework relying on a resampling-based …

A Predictive Coding Account Of Spatial Working Memory Following Prophylactic Levetiracetam Administration Prior To Traumatic Brain Injury, Omeima Mutwali

Dissertations, Theses, and Capstone Projects

Traumatic brain injury (TBI) symptom prevention and remediation is an important area of research that would benefit vulnerable groups, including active-duty and veteran soldiers. These patients can sustain penetrative forces in fields of combat or in training, which result in focal lesions that trigger inflammatory and degenerative processes in the brain. Both primary and secondary injuries are associated with changes to cognition, behavior and affective state. This disease poses increased risk of epileptogenesis, as well. Given these outcomes, prior research has evaluated levetiracetam (LEV) as a prophylactic treatment for seizures, cognitive deficits and negative emotionality. LEV acts as a presynaptic …

Conditional Product Sampling For Gaussian Process Implicit Surfaces, Song Shi

Dartmouth College Master’s Theses

Gaussian Process Implicit Surfaces (GPISes) provide a powerful and unified stochastic geometry representation for rendering surfaces, volumes, and the rich continuum between them. Recent work has shown that GPISes can model a broad space of visual appearances under a unified light transport framework. However, practical rendering with GPISes remains challenging: existing estimators can become inefficient for particular correlation structures, and highly anisotropic or heightfield-like GPISes require specialized treatment to obtain robust variance reduction.

This thesis extends recent work on GPIS rendering by introducing a new next-event estimation (NEE) technique for anisotropic GPISes.We show that standard NEE provides diminishing benefits as …

An Analytical Framework For Quantifying Urban And Community Resilience To Natural Hazards From Cell-Phone Gps-Location And Traffic-Flow Data, Georgios Chatzikyriakidis

Civil and Environmental Engineering Theses and Dissertations

Urban areas are increasingly exposed to natural hazards while accommodating a growing share of the global population, yet a consistent science-based framework for quantifying urban and community resilience remains lacking. This dissertation develops a physics-based analytical framework grounded in statistical mechanics and the quantitative theory of Brownian motion. A city is conceptualized as a complex medium in which citizens move analogously to Brownian particles within a viscoelastic environment, influenced by socioeconomic interactions and infrastructure functionality.

A central premise is that urban resilience, interpreted as engineering resilience (an outcome), can be quantified through a single metric: the mean-square displacement MSD=⟨r²(t)⟩, of …

Bayesian Designs For Two-Arm Clinical Trials With Time-To-Event Endpoints: Incorporating Historical Data Through Power Priors, Sara Hajraf H. Almutiri

Mathematics & Statistics ETDs

Bayesian methods provide a flexible framework for time-to-event analysis by incorporating prior information. The power prior offers a systematic way to borrow information from historical data. This approach is especially valuable in clinical research, where historical data can enhance inference in early-phase trials with limited sample sizes. This dissertation develops Bayesian approaches for two-arm survival studies using both closed-form and simulation-based methods. The closed-form inference is derived under exponential and Weibull survival models. Under the proportional hazards framework, the posterior is derived through a normal approximation to the log hazard ratio, allowing inference on the treatment effect when the variance …

Bayesian Spatiotemporal Model For Counterfactual Estimation In Socioeconomic Studies, Duwani W. Gonzalez

Statistical Science Theses and Dissertations

Impact evaluations of regional development programs often require estimating counterfactual outcomes for a small number of treated regions using survey-based areal data. In practice, evaluators typically rely on two-group quasi-experimental methods such as propensity score matching (PSM) and Difference-in-Differences (DiD). These approaches perform poorly when only a few regions receive treatment, and when the set of observed covariates is limited or only partially relevant. Moreover, they typically do not explicitly exploit the spatial and temporal dependence present in survey-based areal data such as in ACS (American Community Survey). This dissertation develops a family of Bayesian spatial predictive models for directly …

Digital Literacy And Language Proficiency As Factors Of Accessible Digital Training In The Hospitality Industry: Employee Perspectives Of Training And Working In A Diverse Industry, Gillian Bowden

UNLV Theses, Dissertations, Professional Papers, and Capstones

This explanatory sequential mixed methods study explored how digital literacy and language proficiency impact employees’ access to and engagement with digital training, as well as how these experiences influence their perceptions of training and the organization. In the quantitative phase, survey data were collected from hourly employees at a large foodservice corporation (n=67). Four constructs were assessed: digital literacy, language proficiency, accessibility, and engagement. Results indicated strong, statistically significant relationships with higher levels of digital literacy and language proficiency associated with greater accessibility and increased engagement with digital training materials. The large effect sizes suggest these competencies play a meaningful …

Using Multilevel Modeling To Understand Nested Data, Holmes Finch

Perspectives on Early Childhood Psychology and Education

Researchers in the social sciences often work with nested data, in which individuals are collected in higher level clusters. For example, educational research often involves working with samples in which students are nested within schools. Standard data analyses, such as regression and analysis of variance (ANOVA), yield statistically biased results when this nested structure is ignored. One widely used and effective approach for handling such nested data is multilevel modeling. The purpose of this manuscript is to review the basics of multilevel modeling and to provide the reader with a fully worked example in which the analytic approach and results …

Using Effect Sizes, Confidence Intervals, And The Bayes Factor To Better Understand The T-Test, Analysis Of Variance, And Regression Results, Holmes Finch

Perspectives on Early Childhood Psychology and Education

Null hypothesis testing is a widely used paradigm for assessing research hypotheses across the social sciences. Despite their ubiquity, researchers have discussed a number of problems and limitations to hypothesis testing and have suggested alternatives that might provide greater depth and explanation of research results. The purpose of this paper is to describe the use of several such alternatives and to show how they can be integrated with one another and with null hypothesis testing in order to provide a more holistic view of research hypotheses.

A Statistical Analysis Of Current And Future Hurricane Activity In The North Indian Ocean, Basil Lund

2026 Symposium

A hurricane is defined as a tropical storm with winds sustained at 74 mph or greater. I examined major (category 3 and above) hurricane activity over the North Indian Ocean from the years 1972-2019 as reported by Colorado State University Hurricane Forecast Archive. Using RStudio, I conducted a binomial analysis of the CSU dataset to calculate probabilities of zero to ten years with one or more major North Indian Ocean hurricanes in the next decade. I conducted a geometric analysis to determine probabilities associated with waiting periods for the next year with a major hurricane, as well as a Poisson …

Developing A Comprehensive Resource Guide For Caregivers Within The Area Agency On Aging, Aiden R. Murphy

Public Health Capstone Projects

This project developed a new universal caregiver resource guide for caregivers within the Area Agency on Aging, in order to improve resource navigation and workflow efficiency. Resources were collected, verified, and organized into a new, streamlined guide via the ARIA chatbot, covering multiple needs. Caregiver resources were collected and verified by the capstone student and mentor, Michael Kroeker, and organized into a centralized knowledge base within the ARIA chatbot. A mixed methods evaluation was conducted utilizing a 5-point Likert scale with three quantitative questions and one open-ended qualitative question. The data was given to the SeniorLine staff, who wanted to …

Genetic Analysis Of Triplicated Genes Affecting Sex-Specific Skeletal Deficits In Down Syndrome Model Mice, Kourtney Sloan, Kristina M. Piner, Pathum Randunu Nawarathna Kandedura Arachchige, Charles R. Goodlett, Yann Herault, Gayla R. Olbricht, Joseph M. Wallace, Randall J. Roper

Mathematics and Statistics Faculty Research & Creative Works

Down syndrome (DS) is caused by the triplication of human chromosome 21 (Hsa21), resulting in skeletal insufficiency (low bone mineral density) and altered bone development. DS mouse models recapitulate these deficits, including sexual dimorphism in long bone alterations. Historically, Ts65Dn mice provided much of the insight behind DS-related skeletal deficits with ∼100 trisomic orthologous genes, but there are concerns about the genetic fidelity in this model due to the included triplication of genes not homologous to Hsa21. A new DS model, Ts66Yah, subtracted the non-Hsa21 homologous trisomic genes from Ts65Dn but has not been evaluated for long bone deficits. Comparing …

Freshman 15? Freshman 50?? The Reality Of Daily Life Habits Of A First Year College Student, Gregorio R. Salgado

Student Scholar Symposium Abstracts and Posters

This project presents a personal data tracking study in which I collected daily self-reported metrics over the course of the Spring semester using Excel. The variables tracked include sleep duration, caloric intake, screen time, social media usage, phone checks per day, family communication, and personal spending. The goal of this project is to identify meaningful patterns and correlations between daily habits and personal well-being.

Data was collected through a combination of manual logging and smartphone-generated daily reports. This study explores potential relationships between variables such as sleep duration and social media usage, as well as the association between family communication …