Economic Policy Commons^™

Do Housing Programs For Low-Income Households Improve Their Housing?, Amy D. Crews

Center for Policy Research

The primary goals of the 1937 Housing Act were to provide safe and sanitary housing and to reduce crowding for low-income households. During the nearly 60 years since, the effective goals have expanded to include lowering housing costs, and by extension, to increasing nonhousing consumption. This paper examines the effect these programs have had on the overall consumption behavior of participants. Using data from the 1987 American Housing Survey (AHS), the results indicate that federal housing programs have little effect on the housing consumption of participants (4.4 percent increase), but an enormous effect on their nonhousing consumption (141 percent increase). …

Ruthless Prepayment? Evidence From Multifamily Mortgages, James R. Follain, Jan Ondrich, Gyan P. Sinha

Center for Policy Research

Estimates of a prepayment function for multifamily mortgages are reported in this paper. These are among the first attempts to estimate such a function; most previous work along these lines focuses on single family mortgages. A further distinguishing aspect of the paper is its attempt to incorporate the impact of unobservable factors on the mortgage refinancing decision. A variant of the maximum likelihood procedure first developed by Meyer (1987) is employed. The results indicate an overall positive duration dependence for the conditional prepayment rate. The estimated response of prepayments to a change in the market rate of interest is significant …

Analysis Of Tax Capacity And Tax Effort Of Texas Counties, 1980-1993 (Report Ced96-8), Rod Hissong

Center for Economic Development Research and Service Publications - Archive

Texas counties vary dramatically across socio-economic factors. They range in population from 127 in Loving County to 2.9 million in Harris County. Population densities range from less than one person per square mile to 2,175 people per square mile. Some economies are nearly exclusively agrarian, others are heavily dependent upon oil and gas and yet others closely reflect the national economy. These, and other variations, create difficulties when comparing the public fiscal health of the counties; ie a county's ability to generate revenues for public goods and services. This study focuses on the Tax Capacity Index and Tax Effort Index …

Family Structure And Institutionalization: Results From Merged Data, James Mcnally, Douglas Wolf

Center for Policy Research

Research on the patterns and behavioral consequences of kin networks among the older population is limited due to the shortcomings of most available survey data. Often, household surveys obtain little information on the number and characteristics of nonresident kin. Moreover, surveys are often confined to the noninstitutionalized population. One possible solution is to merge information from multiple sources, in order to achieve the requisite coverage of populations and data content. This paper reports on the development of a hybrid data base containing observations from the 1987-88 National Survey of Families and Households (NSFH) and the 1989 National Long-Term Care Survey …

Closing The Growth And Equity Policy Divide: Rethinking The Role Of The Federal Government When Promoting Economic Development In Distressed Urban Communities, Edwin Melendez

Gastón Institute Publications

The objectives of this policy briefing memorandum are two-fold: first, to review the historical record concerning economic growth policies, particularly those overseen by the Economic Development Administration (EDA), and the experience with block grants for urban economic development; and, second, to discuss new roles the federal government might play in promoting the convergence of these two broad policy areas.

Community Economic Development And The Latino Experience, Edwin Melendez, Michael A. Stoll

Gastón Institute Publications

Just as people had high expectations for the Great Society programs instituted to address poverty after the Watts riots of 1965 so, too, did people have high hopes for a turning point in federal initiatives to address the plight of the urban poor after the Los Angeles rebellion of 1992. Indeed, both analysts and community activists were hopeful that a more sympathetic administration would be able to capitalize on the political momentum that resulted from their electoral victory and implement somewhat unpopular programs in Congress. This could not have come at a better time for blacks and Latinos in the …

Coresidence With An Older Mother: The Adult Child's Perspective, Beth Soldo, Douglas A. Wolf, Vicki A. Freedman

Center for Policy Research

We estimate models of coresidence between adult children and their elderly unmarried mothers, using data from the National Survey of Families and Households. The models include controls for women’s wages, along with other variables representing competing demands on their time. Among married couples we explicitly represent the “competition” for residential space between a child’s mother and mother-in-law. The information necessary to identify the observations of interest— respondents with a living, unmarried older mother— is missing in most cases. We address this problem using a multiple imputation strategy. The results indicate that wages, income, and parental health are related to parent-child …

What We Know About Multifamily Mortgage Originations And Why We Care, Amy D. Crews, Robert M. Dunsky, James R. Follain

Center for Policy Research

The three publicly available data sets on multifamily mortgage originations are examined and compared in an attempt to resolve the more than $20 billion discrepancy between the published estimates of the size of the conventional conforming multifamily lending market. The data are from the Survey of Mortgage Lending Activity, the Home Mortgage Disclosure Act data, and the 1991 Residential Finance Survey. The analyses show that all three data sets have substantial weaknesses, and that the primary source of the differences in estimates is due to differences in the populations covered. The 1993 multifamily mortgage originations volume is estimated to be …

Good Jobs, Bad Jobs: The Long-Run Implications Of Employment At Different Wage Rates For The Disadvantaged, Timothy J. Bartik

Conference Papers

No abstract provided.

Using Recurrence Probabilities To Estimate The Volume Of Multifamily Mortgage Originations, Robert M. Dunsky, James R. Follain, Jan Ondrich

Center for Policy Research

This study uses recurrence probabilities to generate forecasts of the volume of multifamily mortgage originations for the period 1992-2002. The approach concentrates on predicting the volume of property sales using the baseline of a multifamily prepayment hazard estimation to generate the predicted cohort-specific proportion of calendar sales in a given year. The forecast for the volume of originations depends strongly on the definition of the relevant mortgage population. A definition that excludes assumptions but otherwise includes all properties selling between 1971 and 1991 in which a first mortgage was used in its acquisition yields a forecast of $47.2 billion for …

Estimating The Volume Of Multifamily Mortgage Originations By Commercial Banks Using The Survey Of Mortgage Lending Activity And The Home Mortgage Disclosure Act Data, Amy D. Crews, Robert M. Dunsky, James R. Follain

Center for Policy Research

Two public data sets on multifamily mortgage originations are used to resolve the $15 billion discrepancy between the published estimates of the size of the multifamily lending market covered by commercial banks. The data are from the Survey of Mortgage Lending Activity and the Home Mortgage Disclosure Act. The analyses show the primary sources of the differences in the estimates are differences in the populations covered, nonreporting biases, and the methods used to expand the reported values to aggregate values. The 1993 multifamily mortgage originations volume by commercial banks is estimated to be about $7-8 billion.

Slow Motion: Economic Mobility Of Young Workers In The 1970s And 1980s, Greg J. Duncan, Johanne Boisjoly, Timothy M. Smeeding

Center for Policy Research

This paper investigates the question of how long it takes young male workers to earn enough to reach a given standard of living, e.g., enough to support a family. We use the Panel Study of Income Dynamics data on the earnings of children and their parents to answer these questions. Our findings are that all groups of men, classified by race, ethnicity, and education level, are taking longer to reach a given standard of living. Some, e.g., undereducated black males, will never reach middle class standards of living for themselves. Implications for household formation, marriage, and public policy are discussed …

A Model For Simulating Life Histories Of The Elderly: Model Design And Implementation Plans, Douglas Wolf, Jan Ondrich, Kenneth G. Manton, Eric Stallard, Max A. Woodbury, Larry Corder

Center for Policy Research

This paper provides a strategy for the development of a model of life-cycle change in functional status, economic well-being, and family composition, with particular attention to persons aged 65 and older. The overall goal is to use the model as the basis for individual-level projections of the later life cycle, that is, microsimulation. Specifically, the scope of the project includes: 1. Specification and estimation of equations for the dynamics of functional status, nursing home occupancy, income and death among those aged 65+, using data from the 1982, 1984, and 1989 National Long-Term Care Survey (NLTCS) linked to Medicare data for …

Putting The Minimum Wage Debate In A Historical Context: Card And Krueger Meet George Stigler, Richard V. Burkhauser, Kenneth A. Couch, David Wittenburg

Center for Policy Research

Half a century ago George Stigler stated that evaluation of minimum wage policy should revolve around two questions: Does such legislation diminish poverty? Are there efficient alternatives? We argue that historically these were and continue to be appropriate questions to ask with respect to this policy. We then replicate and evaluate the analysis in Chapter 9 of Myth and Measurement: The New Economics of the Minimum Wage with regards to these questions. Given the evolution of the Earned Income Tax Credit we conclude that, aside from nostalgia, it is hard to explain the continued support for increasing the minimum wage …

Regionalizing Government In Maine: Opportunities For The Future, David Alexander, Alan Baldwin, John Carroll, Elizabeth Chapman, Dorraine Diebold, Lisa Harvey Mcpherson, Daniel Stevenson, Earlene Wilson

Muskie School Capstones and Dissertations

In keeping with his promise to make government work better for the people of Maine, Governor Angus King commissioned the Task Force on Regional Options for Better Government. The Governor charged the task force with recommending some alternative regional arrangements for the delivery of government services currently provided by state or local government. The task force evaluated three services in which regionalism offered some advantages: economic development; demand response transportation; and municipal management information systems.

Labor Earnings And Household Income Mobility In Reunified Germany: A Comparison Of The Eastern And Western States, Richard Hauser, Holger Fabig

Center for Policy Research

Using data from the German Socio-Economic Panel (GSOEP) we compare the economic mobility of persons living in the eastern and western states of Germany between 1990 and 1995. We find that gross individual labor income mobility was initially much higher in the east than in the west following reunification, but by 1995 the gap had been greatly reduced. We find similar results when we change our measures to more accurately reflect economic well-being. Gross equivalent labor income and net equivalent income mobility were initially higher in the eastern states than in the western states but there has been convergence over …

Transitions Between Child Care Arrangements For German Pre-Schoolers, Jan Ondrich, C. Katharina Spiess

Center for Policy Research

This study uses a descriptive statistical approach to analyze the dynamics of child care for German pre-schoolers of all ages. Age-specific and duration-specific hazard rates for leaving informal care and for leaving formal care are calculated for various risk groups. Differences in the hazard rates across risk groups indicate the presence of important factors affecting transitions. The factors that we examine relate to household characteristics, the employment status of the mother, and regional supply. We find strong support for the hypotheses that households with fewer pre-schoolers and working mothers have greater demand for pre-school formal care. This demand also appears …

Persistence Of Poverty Across Generations: A Comparison Of Anglos, Blacks, And Latinos, Anna M. Santiago, Yolanda C. Padilla

New England Journal of Public Policy

Utilizing data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth, this study examines the impact of children's growing up in poverty on the probability of their remaining in poverty during young adulthood. The primary goals of the research are to examine racial, ethnic, and gender differences in patterns of persistent poverty and to identify predictors of poverty status in young adulthood. The results suggest that both women, regardless of their race, ethnicity, or adolescent poverty status, and black men who grew up in poverty are more likely to be poor as young adults than Anglo men. Logistic regression analyses reveal that …

Latinos Need Not Apply: The Effects Of Industrial Change And Workplace Discrimination On Latino Employment, Edwin Meléndez, Françoise Carré, Evangelina Holvino

New England Journal of Public Policy

The objective of the research described here is to assess how recent changes in the organization of industry and discrimination in the workplace affect the employment of Latinos. One of the most important developments in labor markets during the past two decades is the erosion of internal labor markets. Employers are responding to intensified competitive conditions that developed during the 1980s: increased international competition in domestic markets and deregulation in telecommunications, banking, insurance, and other industries. The development of information technologies and the diffusion of secondary and postsecondary education have enabled organizations to cut labor costs. In particular, firms are …

An Economic Profile Of Women In Massachusetts, Randy Albelda

Publications from the Center for Women in Politics and Public Policy

This report provides a profile of women's current economic position in Massachusetts. It examines the age, race, and geographical distribution of women and girls across the state; family structure, income and poverty; and women's labor force participation, occupational and industrial distribution in jobs, and earnings. When relevant 1990s Massachusetts data are compared to national data and to Massachusetts data from the 1970s.

Women across the Commonwealth have experienced tremendous changes in their lives over the last two decades as a result of changes in the economy and family structure. For women, the changes provide new opportunities, but they also exacerbate …

In Search Of Empirical Evidence That Links Rent And User Cost, Dixie M. Blackley, James R. Follain

Center for Policy Research

Most models of the rental housing market assume a close linkage between the level of residential rents and the after-tax user cost of rental housing capital. However, little empirical evidence exists to establish the strength of this linkage or the speed with which rents adjust to changes in user cost or tax policy. This paper develops and estimates an econometric model of the rental housing market in order to shed light on both of these issues. United States annual data for 1964 through 1993 are used to generate two-stage least squares estimates of a four equation structural model. Although the …

Summary Results Of A Survey Of Economic Development In Texas Cities (Report 95-1), Delbert A. Taebel

Center for Economic Development Research and Service Publications - Archive

Economic development is the new kid on the block in city government. If one looks at any textbook on municipal administration published more than 10 years ago, economic development as a city function would not even have been mentioned. Yet, because of the dozens of conferences and flurry of articles focusing on economic development, it may seem to many that economic development has been around for a long time. Indeed, seven years ago the Institute of Urban Studies published an initial study entitled "Local Economic Development in Texas." Since then, of course, economic development has become a permanent program in …

Subsidizing Increased Employment For The Urban Poor: What Labor Market Problems Might Justify It?, Timothy J. Bartik

Conference Papers

No abstract provided.

The Economy And The Regulatory Environment: In Search Of A New Paradigm, Zenia Kotval, John Mullin

New England Journal of Public Policy

This article focuses on the economy and the regulatory environment. The economic downturn over the past six years has taken its toll on Massachusetts. At the same time, there is immense pressure on the part of the electorate to ensure that our quality of life is protected and enhanced. It is clear that the business community, citizens, and our elected officials are searching for a new paradigm. The concept of a policy of sustainable development is emerging —political and corporate actions that produce well-paying jobs, that create a competitive business climate and improve life within the context of our existing …

Access To Capital And Technical Assistance, Richard J. Ward

New England Journal of Public Policy

This article summarizes and analyzes the views of select leaders in business, labor, banking, the government, and academia with regard to the constraints, obstacles, and recommendations to achieve economic growth in Massachusetts. The role of the state government in addressing these issues receives special attention. Access to capital and technical assistance had been regarded by many as the key constraint, particularly during the recession of the early 1990s. The author analyzes inconvenient government systems, bottlenecks, and bureaucracy as throttling the flow of capital to small-business entrepreneurs. The analysis concludes, however, that unless the state cum federal government finds ways to …

Economic Growth Issues In Massachusetts Rural Areas And Small Cities, Nancy Goff

New England Journal of Public Policy

In developing a strategy for economic development, state government must consider the special needs of its small cities and rural areas. Well-meaning policies crafted for metropolitan areas have unintended and often negative consequences when applied statewide. This article is a revision of the author's topical discussion paper for the August 6, 1992, Conference on Rural and Small City Development at Mount Wachusett Community College, Gardner. It was used by the Massachusetts Executive Office of Economic Affairs and the University of Massachusetts in developing a statewide economic development strategy.

Budget Policy And Fiscal Crisis: A Political Matrix, Francis J. Leazes Jr., Robert Sieczkiewicz

New England Journal of Public Policy

A study of 134 Rhode Island programs, administered during the state's budget crisis in the fiscal years 1987 to 1991, yielded a number of important lessons. The more mandated formula spending there was in a budget, the more uncontrollable was the budget. There is a spending bias ingrained in the political culture. Some nonentitlement spending can be difficult to curtail. Cutback management strategies are inadequate to address significant revenue shortfalls. The authors present a political budget matrix designed to assist budget policymakers and staff in making educated assumptions about the way categories of programs may be treated during times of …

Investing In Economic Infrastructure, Paul W. Shuldiner

New England Journal of Public Policy

The economic returns that the commonwealth of Massachusetts enjoys from its investments in transportation and other physical infrastructure result from the jobs that are created by these investments and from the enhanced utility of land that public works create. The integrative property of transportation in particular makes the comprehensive planning of transportation facilities an inordinately complex and essential public function. This function was the focus of the July 1992 workshop sponsored by the Executive Office of Economic Affairs and the University of Massachusetts. Among the principal themes the participants addressed were how the state's interest in economic development should be …

Improving Education And Training For Economic Development, Joan Mcrae Stoia

New England Journal of Public Policy

This article explores the connections between workforce quality and economic prosperity, as well as the role of the Massachusetts education and training system, in developing and preserving that quality and supporting the state's key industries. It includes a review of the most recent employment trend and projection data available from the Massachusetts Department of Employment and Training, information about several business-based workplace education models, and a discussion of the specific education and training needs of workers across the age/skill continuum. For the purpose of this discussion, the education and training system are broadly defined to include existing public, private, and …

Affirmative Action Policy Today: Its Effectiveness As Examined In The United States Department Of Commerce, Louritha Green

Political Science Undergraduate Honors Theses

But freedom is not enough. You do not wipe away the scars of centuries by saying: Now you are free to go where you want, do as you desire, choose the leaders you please. you do not take a person who for years has been hobbled by chains and liberate him, bring him up to the starting line of a race and then say, "You are free to compete with all the others," and still justly believe you have been completely fair. (Graham, 182).

These words of President Lyndon Baines Johnson epitomize the foundation on which affirmative action programs were …