Economic Policy Commons^™

Community Economic Development And The Latino Experience, Edwin Melendez, Michael A. Stoll

Gastón Institute Publications

Just as people had high expectations for the Great Society programs instituted to address poverty after the Watts riots of 1965 so, too, did people have high hopes for a turning point in federal initiatives to address the plight of the urban poor after the Los Angeles rebellion of 1992. Indeed, both analysts and community activists were hopeful that a more sympathetic administration would be able to capitalize on the political momentum that resulted from their electoral victory and implement somewhat unpopular programs in Congress. This could not have come at a better time for blacks and Latinos in the …

Coresidence With An Older Mother: The Adult Child's Perspective, Beth Soldo, Douglas A. Wolf, Vicki A. Freedman

Center for Policy Research

We estimate models of coresidence between adult children and their elderly unmarried mothers, using data from the National Survey of Families and Households. The models include controls for women’s wages, along with other variables representing competing demands on their time. Among married couples we explicitly represent the “competition” for residential space between a child’s mother and mother-in-law. The information necessary to identify the observations of interest— respondents with a living, unmarried older mother— is missing in most cases. We address this problem using a multiple imputation strategy. The results indicate that wages, income, and parental health are related to parent-child …

What We Know About Multifamily Mortgage Originations And Why We Care, Amy D. Crews, Robert M. Dunsky, James R. Follain

Center for Policy Research

The three publicly available data sets on multifamily mortgage originations are examined and compared in an attempt to resolve the more than $20 billion discrepancy between the published estimates of the size of the conventional conforming multifamily lending market. The data are from the Survey of Mortgage Lending Activity, the Home Mortgage Disclosure Act data, and the 1991 Residential Finance Survey. The analyses show that all three data sets have substantial weaknesses, and that the primary source of the differences in estimates is due to differences in the populations covered. The 1993 multifamily mortgage originations volume is estimated to be …

Good Jobs, Bad Jobs: The Long-Run Implications Of Employment At Different Wage Rates For The Disadvantaged, Timothy J. Bartik

Conference Papers

No abstract provided.

Using Recurrence Probabilities To Estimate The Volume Of Multifamily Mortgage Originations, Robert M. Dunsky, James R. Follain, Jan Ondrich

Center for Policy Research

This study uses recurrence probabilities to generate forecasts of the volume of multifamily mortgage originations for the period 1992-2002. The approach concentrates on predicting the volume of property sales using the baseline of a multifamily prepayment hazard estimation to generate the predicted cohort-specific proportion of calendar sales in a given year. The forecast for the volume of originations depends strongly on the definition of the relevant mortgage population. A definition that excludes assumptions but otherwise includes all properties selling between 1971 and 1991 in which a first mortgage was used in its acquisition yields a forecast of $47.2 billion for …

Estimating The Volume Of Multifamily Mortgage Originations By Commercial Banks Using The Survey Of Mortgage Lending Activity And The Home Mortgage Disclosure Act Data, Amy D. Crews, Robert M. Dunsky, James R. Follain

Center for Policy Research

Two public data sets on multifamily mortgage originations are used to resolve the $15 billion discrepancy between the published estimates of the size of the multifamily lending market covered by commercial banks. The data are from the Survey of Mortgage Lending Activity and the Home Mortgage Disclosure Act. The analyses show the primary sources of the differences in the estimates are differences in the populations covered, nonreporting biases, and the methods used to expand the reported values to aggregate values. The 1993 multifamily mortgage originations volume by commercial banks is estimated to be about $7-8 billion.

Slow Motion: Economic Mobility Of Young Workers In The 1970s And 1980s, Greg J. Duncan, Johanne Boisjoly, Timothy M. Smeeding

Center for Policy Research

This paper investigates the question of how long it takes young male workers to earn enough to reach a given standard of living, e.g., enough to support a family. We use the Panel Study of Income Dynamics data on the earnings of children and their parents to answer these questions. Our findings are that all groups of men, classified by race, ethnicity, and education level, are taking longer to reach a given standard of living. Some, e.g., undereducated black males, will never reach middle class standards of living for themselves. Implications for household formation, marriage, and public policy are discussed …

A Model For Simulating Life Histories Of The Elderly: Model Design And Implementation Plans, Douglas Wolf, Jan Ondrich, Kenneth G. Manton, Eric Stallard, Max A. Woodbury, Larry Corder

Center for Policy Research

This paper provides a strategy for the development of a model of life-cycle change in functional status, economic well-being, and family composition, with particular attention to persons aged 65 and older. The overall goal is to use the model as the basis for individual-level projections of the later life cycle, that is, microsimulation. Specifically, the scope of the project includes: 1. Specification and estimation of equations for the dynamics of functional status, nursing home occupancy, income and death among those aged 65+, using data from the 1982, 1984, and 1989 National Long-Term Care Survey (NLTCS) linked to Medicare data for …

Putting The Minimum Wage Debate In A Historical Context: Card And Krueger Meet George Stigler, Richard V. Burkhauser, Kenneth A. Couch, David Wittenburg

Center for Policy Research

Half a century ago George Stigler stated that evaluation of minimum wage policy should revolve around two questions: Does such legislation diminish poverty? Are there efficient alternatives? We argue that historically these were and continue to be appropriate questions to ask with respect to this policy. We then replicate and evaluate the analysis in Chapter 9 of Myth and Measurement: The New Economics of the Minimum Wage with regards to these questions. Given the evolution of the Earned Income Tax Credit we conclude that, aside from nostalgia, it is hard to explain the continued support for increasing the minimum wage …

Regionalizing Government In Maine: Opportunities For The Future, David Alexander, Alan Baldwin, John Carroll, Elizabeth Chapman, Dorraine Diebold, Lisa Harvey Mcpherson, Daniel Stevenson, Earlene Wilson

Muskie School Capstones and Dissertations

In keeping with his promise to make government work better for the people of Maine, Governor Angus King commissioned the Task Force on Regional Options for Better Government. The Governor charged the task force with recommending some alternative regional arrangements for the delivery of government services currently provided by state or local government. The task force evaluated three services in which regionalism offered some advantages: economic development; demand response transportation; and municipal management information systems.

Labor Earnings And Household Income Mobility In Reunified Germany: A Comparison Of The Eastern And Western States, Richard Hauser, Holger Fabig

Center for Policy Research

Using data from the German Socio-Economic Panel (GSOEP) we compare the economic mobility of persons living in the eastern and western states of Germany between 1990 and 1995. We find that gross individual labor income mobility was initially much higher in the east than in the west following reunification, but by 1995 the gap had been greatly reduced. We find similar results when we change our measures to more accurately reflect economic well-being. Gross equivalent labor income and net equivalent income mobility were initially higher in the eastern states than in the western states but there has been convergence over …

Transitions Between Child Care Arrangements For German Pre-Schoolers, Jan Ondrich, C. Katharina Spiess

Center for Policy Research

This study uses a descriptive statistical approach to analyze the dynamics of child care for German pre-schoolers of all ages. Age-specific and duration-specific hazard rates for leaving informal care and for leaving formal care are calculated for various risk groups. Differences in the hazard rates across risk groups indicate the presence of important factors affecting transitions. The factors that we examine relate to household characteristics, the employment status of the mother, and regional supply. We find strong support for the hypotheses that households with fewer pre-schoolers and working mothers have greater demand for pre-school formal care. This demand also appears …

Persistence Of Poverty Across Generations: A Comparison Of Anglos, Blacks, And Latinos, Anna M. Santiago, Yolanda C. Padilla

New England Journal of Public Policy

Utilizing data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth, this study examines the impact of children's growing up in poverty on the probability of their remaining in poverty during young adulthood. The primary goals of the research are to examine racial, ethnic, and gender differences in patterns of persistent poverty and to identify predictors of poverty status in young adulthood. The results suggest that both women, regardless of their race, ethnicity, or adolescent poverty status, and black men who grew up in poverty are more likely to be poor as young adults than Anglo men. Logistic regression analyses reveal that …

Latinos Need Not Apply: The Effects Of Industrial Change And Workplace Discrimination On Latino Employment, Edwin Meléndez, Françoise Carré, Evangelina Holvino

New England Journal of Public Policy

The objective of the research described here is to assess how recent changes in the organization of industry and discrimination in the workplace affect the employment of Latinos. One of the most important developments in labor markets during the past two decades is the erosion of internal labor markets. Employers are responding to intensified competitive conditions that developed during the 1980s: increased international competition in domestic markets and deregulation in telecommunications, banking, insurance, and other industries. The development of information technologies and the diffusion of secondary and postsecondary education have enabled organizations to cut labor costs. In particular, firms are …

An Economic Profile Of Women In Massachusetts, Randy Albelda

Publications from the Center for Women in Politics and Public Policy

This report provides a profile of women's current economic position in Massachusetts. It examines the age, race, and geographical distribution of women and girls across the state; family structure, income and poverty; and women's labor force participation, occupational and industrial distribution in jobs, and earnings. When relevant 1990s Massachusetts data are compared to national data and to Massachusetts data from the 1970s.

Women across the Commonwealth have experienced tremendous changes in their lives over the last two decades as a result of changes in the economy and family structure. For women, the changes provide new opportunities, but they also exacerbate …

In Search Of Empirical Evidence That Links Rent And User Cost, Dixie M. Blackley, James R. Follain

Center for Policy Research

Most models of the rental housing market assume a close linkage between the level of residential rents and the after-tax user cost of rental housing capital. However, little empirical evidence exists to establish the strength of this linkage or the speed with which rents adjust to changes in user cost or tax policy. This paper develops and estimates an econometric model of the rental housing market in order to shed light on both of these issues. United States annual data for 1964 through 1993 are used to generate two-stage least squares estimates of a four equation structural model. Although the …