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Articles 1 - 30 of 250
Full-Text Articles in Economic Policy
The Mundlak Estimator In A Panel Data Model With Serially Correlated Error Component Disturbances, Badi H. Baltagi, Long Liu
The Mundlak Estimator In A Panel Data Model With Serially Correlated Error Component Disturbances, Badi H. Baltagi, Long Liu
Center for Policy Research
This paper shows that the classic Mundlak (1978) result where the random effects estimator reduces to the fixed effects estimator when the regressors are all correlated with the individual effects, may not hold if the remainder disturbances have a general serial correlation variance-covariance matrix. This includes the popular AR(1), MA(1) and ARMA(p, q) processes for serial correlation. This is illustrated with an empirical example for the AR(1) case.
Can The Safety Net Support Families Through Childbirth?, Hyojeong Kim, Colleen Heflin, Taryn Morrissey
Can The Safety Net Support Families Through Childbirth?, Hyojeong Kim, Colleen Heflin, Taryn Morrissey
Center for Policy Research
Childbirth is a life event that often disrupts maternal employment and household earnings just as family expenses increase. In the United States, families do not have access to a national paid parental leave program and must rely on a patchwork of safety net programs that were not designed specifically to support households during pregnancy and the immediate postpartum period. This brief uses linked administrative data from the Virginia Longitudinal Data System (2016–2021) to describe changes in household earnings and social welfare benefits before and after childbirth among low-income mothers receiving the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) or Temporary Assistance for …
Should We Flee? The Mortality And Economic Impacts Of Hurricane Evacuation Orders, Lucas Kaplan
Should We Flee? The Mortality And Economic Impacts Of Hurricane Evacuation Orders, Lucas Kaplan
Center for Policy Research
I estimate the mortality and county-level regional economic impacts of hurricane evacuation orders using a novel instrumental variables framework. Relative to similarly affected but non-evacuated areas, evacuated counties experience fewer deaths but lower personal income, employment, and business establishments into the second year following the storm, likely stemming from delayed returns in wealthier neighborhoods. I then develop a threshold decision rule that balances the mortality benefits against these persistent economic costs and apply this framework to orders issued from 2016–2022. Incorporating these persistent economic costs alters policy evaluation: the largest orders generate net benefits that dwarf their costs, but the …
The Effect Of Retention Threat On Student Learning Gains: Evidence From Ohio, Sarah Souders, Robert Bifulco
The Effect Of Retention Threat On Student Learning Gains: Evidence From Ohio, Sarah Souders, Robert Bifulco
Center for Policy Research
Grade retention policies create incentives for students to make adequate progress ahead of evaluation. The threat of retention thus has the potential to affect all students’ academic outcomes, increasing achievement especially among students with test scores near the retention policy’s threshold. By using unique data from Ohio which allows us to implement a regression discontinuity design, we find that students exposed to the threat of retention in Grade 3 experience larger learning gains than students who are not under retention threat. Gains in Grade 3 English Language Arts (ELA) are 0.077 SD and although effects partially fade over time, positive …
How Shale Boom-Era Municipal Debt Could Undermine Community Resilience During The Energy Transition, Brandon Charles
How Shale Boom-Era Municipal Debt Could Undermine Community Resilience During The Energy Transition, Brandon Charles
Center for Policy Research
Local governments in oil and gas-producing regions took on significant municipal debt during the U.S. shale boom to build schools, water systems, and other infrastructure to accommodate rapid population growth. This brief uses Mergent municipal bond issuance data and interviews with local government officials to describe debt accumulation in shale boom communities (N=2,519 counties; 2004–2015) and its implications for the energy transition. The author finds that shale boom communities accumulated approximately $782 more in municipal debt per capita than comparable communities, a 26% increase totaling $1.9 billion across 58 shale boom counties. If production declines and newer residents leave, the …
Identifying Common Trend Determinants In Panel Data, Yoonseok Lee, Peter C. Phillips, Suyong Song, Donggyu Sul
Identifying Common Trend Determinants In Panel Data, Yoonseok Lee, Peter C. Phillips, Suyong Song, Donggyu Sul
Center for Policy Research
This paper develops a novel method for identifying observable determinants of latent common trends in nonstationary panel data, which are typically removed or controlled in two-way fixed effects regressions. By examining cross sectional dispersion processes, we assess whether panel series exhibit distributional convergence toward specific observed time series, revealing them as long run determinants of the underlying latent trend. The approach also offers a new perspective on cointegration between time series and panel data, focusing on the relative variation of the panel data with respect to the cointegration error. Applying this method to U.S. state-level crime rates demonstrates that the …
Reared In Disaster: The Long-Run Harm From Childhood Storm Exposure, Lucas Kaplan
Reared In Disaster: The Long-Run Harm From Childhood Storm Exposure, Lucas Kaplan
Center for Policy Research
I estimate how exposure to natural disasters in childhood shapes earnings and schooling later in life, using newly assembled county-date disaster records dating back to 1951 linked to residential histories in the NLSY79. I compare adult outcomes for children who are born in the same county but due to disaster timing experience different amounts of exposure, finding that severe and repeat disasters reduce earnings. I show that school-age disaster exposure drives long-run harm: exposure between ages 5 and 10 reduces educational attainment, while exposure between ages 10 and 15 reduces adult earnings. Finally, Black individuals suffer larger earnings losses than …
Immigration Enforcement And Origin Country Labor Markets, Thomas Pearson
Immigration Enforcement And Origin Country Labor Markets, Thomas Pearson
Center for Policy Research
This paper studies how increased immigration enforcement in the destination country impacts labor markets in the origin country. Using variation in Mexican migrant networks and Secure Communities (SC), a policy which expanded local immigration enforcement, I show that the deportation of Mexican migrants from the U.S. increases return migration to Mexico and decreases monthly earnings for workers in Mexico. The negative earnings effects are largest for workers most similar to return migrants in terms of their demographics, occupations, and employment types, and are consistent with increased labor market competition.
Encouraging Naturalization: The Broader Effects Of Daca On U.S. Immigration, Emily Battaglia, Thomas Pearson
Encouraging Naturalization: The Broader Effects Of Daca On U.S. Immigration, Emily Battaglia, Thomas Pearson
Center for Policy Research
This paper examines how protection from deportation and work authorization affect immigration outcomes, focusing on Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA). Using a difference-in-differences design exploiting geographic variation in exposure to DACA-eligible immigrants, we find that DACA significantly increased the number of naturalized citizens without increasing the number of noncitizens. This increase is driven by higher naturalization among prior noncitizens, most of whom are likely not DACA beneficiaries. We provide evidence consistent with DACA increasing incentives for, and reducing barriers to, naturalization by protecting undocumented DACA-eligible contacts, suggesting temporary protections can encourage longer-term commitments and permanent residence among existing immigrants.
Urban Sprawl And Residential Carbon Emissions: Evidence From Indonesia And The Philippines, Yi Jiang, Taylor Lathrop, Alexander D. Rothenberg, Yao Wang
Urban Sprawl And Residential Carbon Emissions: Evidence From Indonesia And The Philippines, Yi Jiang, Taylor Lathrop, Alexander D. Rothenberg, Yao Wang
Center for Policy Research
This paper studies how neighborhood density affects residential carbon emissions, using detailed data from Indonesia and the Philippines. To address simultaneity, we instrument density with soil characteristics, and to address sorting, we control for community averages of observed characteristics. Unlike cities in developed countries, we find that density is positively correlated with residential energy use. After controlling for sorting, we find a precise null relationship between density and residential carbon emissions. Our results suggest that policies to control urban sprawl may not be successful in reducing residential carbon emissions in developing country cities.
Can Schools Sustain The Rising Cost Of Retiree Health Care?, Robert Bifulco, Iuliia Shybalkina
Can Schools Sustain The Rising Cost Of Retiree Health Care?, Robert Bifulco, Iuliia Shybalkina
Center for Policy Research
Many New York State school districts spend significant amounts each year for retiree health care benefits, and these payments are expected to grow over the coming decades. This brief summarizes findings from a study examining approximately 300 New York State school districts. Unlike retiree pension plans, which are typically prefunded, retiree health care benefits are funded on a pay-as-you-go basis, meaning that benefits for past employees who are currently retired are paid using current district revenues. In the average school district, pay-as-you-go spending currently amounts to 4.5 percent of district revenues. Assuming current benefit and funding policies remain, spending is …
A Capital Idea? The Welfare Effects Of Relocating Indonesia’S Government To A New City, Alexander D. Rothenberg, Radine Rafols, Yao Wang, Yi Jiang
A Capital Idea? The Welfare Effects Of Relocating Indonesia’S Government To A New City, Alexander D. Rothenberg, Radine Rafols, Yao Wang, Yi Jiang
Center for Policy Research
Many developing countries are planning to create new capital cities, a place-making policy designed to alleviate congestion and respond to climate change. To evaluate growth and welfare effects, we specify a dynamic quantitative spatial model with public employment, informality, fiscal transfers, and frictions in trade and migration. We calibrate the model with data from Indonesia and conduct policy experiments studying the creation of Nusantara in East Kalimantan. Despite increasing employment in the new capital region, we find that building Nusantara reduces national growth and welfare. Climate change attenuates its negative welfare effects, but only slightly.
China’S Turn To Domestic-Led Growth: Replacing Consumption Taxes With Land Taxes?, Yilin Hou, Michael Kumhof, Lei Shao
China’S Turn To Domestic-Led Growth: Replacing Consumption Taxes With Land Taxes?, Yilin Hou, Michael Kumhof, Lei Shao
Center for Policy Research
As part of its turn towards domestic-led growth China plans to stimulate consumption, including through a reduction in consumption taxes. We compare two model-based scenarios in which the revenue losses from lower consumption taxes are replaced by higher income taxes or higher land taxes. The model is carefully calibrated to recent Chinese data, including detailed fiscal data. We find that higher income taxes lead to significant losses in output and incomes, while higher land taxes lead to significant gains. These gains are increasing in the share of land in net wealth, a statistic for which better data would be invaluable.
Rising Waters, Falling Taxes: The Impact Of Hurricane Sandy On Property Tax Assessments In New York City, Wei Guo, Qing Miao, Yusun Kim, Yilin Hou
Rising Waters, Falling Taxes: The Impact Of Hurricane Sandy On Property Tax Assessments In New York City, Wei Guo, Qing Miao, Yusun Kim, Yilin Hou
Center for Policy Research
Climate disasters pose fiscal challenges for local governments by increasing recovery costs and demand for property tax relief. Homeowners with or without property damage face tax burdens that may not match changes to their property value. This study examines the impact of Hurricane Sandy on property values and tax assessments in New York City. Using a difference-in-differences approach and comprehensive property-level data, we find that (1) inundated properties faced greater tax burdens due to limited declines in taxable value; (2) unaffected properties in flood zones saw tax burden increases due to declining market values and unchanged taxable values; and (3) …
Inequality And Covid Risk At School: Racial Disparities In Indoor Density, Vaccination Rates, And Consequences For Absenteeism, Michael C. Quinn, Michah W. Rothbart, Amy Ellen Schwartz, Brian Elbel
Inequality And Covid Risk At School: Racial Disparities In Indoor Density, Vaccination Rates, And Consequences For Absenteeism, Michael C. Quinn, Michah W. Rothbart, Amy Ellen Schwartz, Brian Elbel
Center for Policy Research
During the COVID pandemic, schools were widely believed to be a venue that facilitated disease transmission. While some worried Black and Hispanic students would disproportionately face greater risk of COVID exposure at school (school COVID risk) – given well-documented racially disparate school environments and resources – little empirical evidence exists documenting or refuting potential disparities in school COVID risk. This paper begins to fill this gap by examining racial disparities in the school environments that contribute to COVID risk at school—specifically, vaccination rates and classroom space per pupil (indoor density) - in New York City elementary schools. We then document …
Two-Way Random Effects Model With Serial Correlation, Badi H. Baltagi, Georges Bresson, Jean-Michel Etienne
Two-Way Random Effects Model With Serial Correlation, Badi H. Baltagi, Georges Bresson, Jean-Michel Etienne
Center for Policy Research
This paper derives a feasible GLS estimator for a two-way error component model with serial correlation on both the time effects as well as the remainder disturbances. This estimator is based on two methods, one proposed by De Porres and Krishnakumar (2013) for deriving the spectral decomposition of a general error component structure and the other based on an inversion trick for the variance-covariance matrix of this model suggested by Skoglund and Karlsson (2001). While the last paper used maximum likelihood methods under the normality assumption, we use method of moments estimators following Baltagi and Li (1991) for the one-way …
Nonstationary Heterogeneous Panels With Multiple Structural Changes, Badi H. Baltagi, Qu Feng, Wei Wang
Nonstationary Heterogeneous Panels With Multiple Structural Changes, Badi H. Baltagi, Qu Feng, Wei Wang
Center for Policy Research
Nonstationary panels have been widely used in empirical studies in macroeconomics and finance. This paper considers multiple structural changes in nonstationary heterogeneous panels with common factors. Kapetanios, Pesaran, Yamagata (2011) showed that unobserved nonstationary factors can be proxied by cross-sectional averages of observable data. This means that unobserved error factors can be treated as additional regressors, and different break points in slopes and error factor loadings can be considered as multiple breaks in linear regression models with panel data. We generalize the least squares approach by Bai and Perron (1998) to nonstationary panels and show that the break points in …
More Police Spending Is Linked To Higher Opioid Overdose Mortality Rates, Michah W. Rothbart, Zoe Lindenfeld, Amanda I. Mauri, Diana Silver
More Police Spending Is Linked To Higher Opioid Overdose Mortality Rates, Michah W. Rothbart, Zoe Lindenfeld, Amanda I. Mauri, Diana Silver
Population Health Research Brief Series
In the United States, over 100,000 people die from drug overdoses every year. County fiscal policies, particularly police spending and revenue generated from fines and forfeitures, not only shape the resources available for health interventions but may also influence how those resources are used to prevent overdoses. This brief highlights findings from a study that used data from the U.S. Census of Governments to examine how counties use of extractive policing practices (fines and forfeitures) as well as spending on health and policing were related to opioid overdose deaths from 2017 to 2020. Findings show that higher county-level police spending …
Testing For Spatial Correlation Under A Complete Bipartite Network, Badi H. Baltagi, Long Liu
Testing For Spatial Correlation Under A Complete Bipartite Network, Badi H. Baltagi, Long Liu
Center for Policy Research
This note shows that for a spatial regression with a weight matrix depicting a complete bipartite network, the Moran I test for zero spatial correlation is never rejected when the alternative is positive spatial correlation no matter how large the true value of the spatial correlation coefficient. In contrast, the null hypothesis of zero spatial correlation is always rejected (with probability one asymptotically) when the alternative is negative spatial correlation and the true value of the spatial correlation coefficient is near -1.
Risk Perception, Dread, And The Value Of Statistical Life: Evidence From Occupational Fatalities, Perry Singleton
Risk Perception, Dread, And The Value Of Statistical Life: Evidence From Occupational Fatalities, Perry Singleton
Center for Policy Research
In a model of occupational safety, biased perceptions of risk decrease welfare, which may justify government regulation. Bias is examined empirically by the correlation between subjective and objective risk, the former measured by self-reported exposure to death on the job. The correlation is negligible among workers with no high school diploma, consistent with underestimating risk in more dangerous occupations, and strongest among more educated workers when objective risk is specific to harmful and noxious substances, which in psychological studies rank high in dread. Biased perceptions of risk may also lead to biased estimates of value of statistical life. VSL estimates …
Tax Streams, Land Rents, And Urban Land Allocation, Yugang Tang, Zhihao Su, Yilin Hou, Zhendong Yin
Tax Streams, Land Rents, And Urban Land Allocation, Yugang Tang, Zhihao Su, Yilin Hou, Zhendong Yin
Center for Policy Research
This paper examines the fiscal motives behind municipal governments' decisions to allocate commercial and residential land when two categories of land use are subject to different fiscal revenue alternatives: business-related tax and/or land rent. We use urban parcel-level land transfers during China’s peak period of urbanization, match commercial parcels with residential parcels, and find significant price discounts on commercial parcels relative to adjacent residential parcels. The observed discounts arise from the future tax flows from commercial use, i.e., expected taxes from developed commercial land reduce its transfer price. We conduct a structural estimation to examine the implications on land use …
Treatment For Mental Health And Substance Use: Spillovers To Police Safety, Monica Deza
Treatment For Mental Health And Substance Use: Spillovers To Police Safety, Monica Deza
Center for Policy Research
We study the effect of community access to mental health and substance use treatment on police officer safety, which we proxy with on-duty assaults on officers. Police officers often serve as first-responders to people experiencing mental health and substance use crises, which can place police officers at risk. Combining agency-level data on police officer on-duty assaults and county-level data on the number of treatment centers that offer mental health and substance use care, we estimate two-way fixed-effects regressions and find that an additional four centers per county (the average annual increase observed in our data) leads to a 1.3% reduction …
Covid-19 Has Strengthened The Relationship Between Alcohol Consumption And Domestic Violence, Monica Deza, Aaron Chalfin, Shooshan Danagoulian
Covid-19 Has Strengthened The Relationship Between Alcohol Consumption And Domestic Violence, Monica Deza, Aaron Chalfin, Shooshan Danagoulian
Center for Policy Research
A large body of evidence documents a link between alcohol consumption and violence involving intimate partners and close family members. Recent scholarship suggests that since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic and subsequent stay-at-home orders, there has been a marked increase in domestic violence. This research considers an important mechanism behind the increase in domestic violence during the COVID-19 pandemic: an increase in the riskiness of alcohol consumption. We combine 911 call data with newly available high-resolution microdata on visits to bars and liquor stores in Detroit, MI and find that the strength of the relationship between visits to alcohol …
The Mundlak Spatial Estimator, Badi H. Baltagi
The Mundlak Spatial Estimator, Badi H. Baltagi
Center for Policy Research
The spatial Mundlak model first considered by Debarsy (2012) is an alternative to fixed effects and random effects estimation for spatial panel data models. Mundlak modelled the correlated random individual effects as a linear combination of the averaged regressors over time plus a random time-invariant error. This paper shows that if spatial correlation is present whether spatial lag or spatial error or both, the standard Mundlak result in panel data does not hold and random effects does not reduce to its fixed effects counterpart. However, using maximum likelihood one can still estimate these spatial Mundlak models and test the correlated …
Unemployment, Alcohol, And Tobacco Use: Separating State Dependence From Unobserved Heterogeneity, Monica Deza
Unemployment, Alcohol, And Tobacco Use: Separating State Dependence From Unobserved Heterogeneity, Monica Deza
Center for Policy Research
Previous literature presents mixed evidence on the effect of alcohol consumption on labor market outcomes. On one hand, heavy alcohol consumption has been shown to have detrimental effects on labor market outcomes. On the other hand, moderate consumption is positively associated with wages and employment. Despite substantial reduced form evidence, previous literature has not been able to separately identify the causal pathways linking moderate versus heavy alcohol use to labor market performance due to the lack of natural experiments that only target moderate versus heavy drinking, as well as limitations of available structural methods that model state dependence and unobserved …
Moving Policies Toward Racial And Ethnic Equality: The Case Of The Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, Alfonso Flores-Lagunes, Hugo B. Jales, Judith Liu, Norbert L. Wilson
Moving Policies Toward Racial And Ethnic Equality: The Case Of The Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, Alfonso Flores-Lagunes, Hugo B. Jales, Judith Liu, Norbert L. Wilson
Center for Policy Research
We analyze the role played by the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) in alleviating or exacerbating inequality across racial and ethnic groups in food expenditures and in the resources needed to meet basic food needs (the “food resource gap”). To do this, we propose a simple framework that decomposes differences across groups in SNAP benefit transfer levels into three components: eligibility, participation, and generosity. This decomposition is then linked to differences in food expenditures and the food resource gap. Our results reveal that among the three components, differences in eligibility contribute the most to SNAP benefits differentials for Black and …
The Two-Way Mundlak Estimator, Badi H. Baltagi
The Two-Way Mundlak Estimator, Badi H. Baltagi
Center for Policy Research
Mundlak (1978) shows that the fixed effects estimator is equivalent to the random effects estimator in the one-way error component model once the random individual effects are modeled as a linear function of all the averaged regressors over time. In the spirit of Mundlak, this paper shows that this result also holds for the two-way error component model once this individual and time effects are modeled as linear functions of all the averaged regressors across time and across individuals. Woolridge (2021) also shows that the two-way fixed effects estimator can be obtained as a pooled OLS with the regressors augmented …
Over Two-Thirds Of Opioid Overdose Victims In Canada Were Employed Before They Died, Alexander Cheung, Joseph Marchand, Patricia Mark
Over Two-Thirds Of Opioid Overdose Victims In Canada Were Employed Before They Died, Alexander Cheung, Joseph Marchand, Patricia Mark
Population Health Research Brief Series
As in the United States, drug overdose is the leading cause of unnatural death in Canada, with most overdoses involving opioids. The authors of this brief quantify the lost labor productivity from opioid overdoses in Canada. They show that from 2016 to 2019, over two-thirds of opioid overdose victims were working and contributing to the economy before they died, with those employed in construction, trades, and transportation having the highest opioid overdose rates. The authors argue that destigmatizing drug use, ensuring a safe supply, and improving access to medical care and take-home Naloxone kits are critical for reducing overdose deaths.
Racial Disparities In School Poverty And Spending: Examining Allocations Within And Across Districts, Robert Bifulco, Sarah Souders
Racial Disparities In School Poverty And Spending: Examining Allocations Within And Across Districts, Robert Bifulco, Sarah Souders
Center for Policy Research
Using recently available school-level finance data, we compare exposure to low-income classmates and average per pupil spending for black, Hispanic, and white students. Using within metropolitan area comparisons, we find that the typical black and Hispanic students attend schools with much higher proportions of low-income students than the typical white student, and that per pupil spending in the typical black and Hispanic students’ schools is higher than in the typical white student’s school. Drawing on estimates of the additional spending required to provide low-income students equal educational opportunity, we find that it is unlikely that the additional spending in schools …
Robust Dynamic Space-Time Panel Data Models Using Ε- Contamination: An Application To Crop Yields And Climate Change, Badi H. Baltagi, Georges Bresson, Anoop Chaturvedi, Guy Lacroix
Robust Dynamic Space-Time Panel Data Models Using Ε- Contamination: An Application To Crop Yields And Climate Change, Badi H. Baltagi, Georges Bresson, Anoop Chaturvedi, Guy Lacroix
Center for Policy Research
This paper extends the Baltagi et al. (2018, 2021) static and dynamic ε-contamination papers to dynamic space-time models. We investigate the robustness of Bayesian panel data models to possible misspecification of the prior distribution. The proposed robust Bayesian approach de-parts from the standard Bayesian framework in two ways. First, we consider the ε-contamination class of prior distributions for the model parameters as well as for the individual effects. Second, both the base elicited priors and the ε-contamination priors use Zellner (1986)’s g-priors for the variance-covariance matrices. We propose a general “toolbox” for a wide range of specifications which includes the …