Labor Economics Commons^™

What Can We Learn From The 1918 Pandemic? Careful Economics And Policy Lessons From Influenza, Brian J. Asquith

Upjohn Institute Policy Papers

Economists and policymakers have turned to the 1918 Spanish flu for guidance on the COVID-19 crisis, and some have been cheered by the example of its sharp post-pandemic economic recovery. Policymakers have also been encouraged to use lockdowns and school closures (called non-pharmaceutical interventions, or NPIs) in part by research showing that 1918’s NPIs saved lives while aiding the subsequent economic recovery. I review a wide range of research to caution that our own recovery will likely be harder and slower because of how the economy has evolved. I conclude by discussing pro-recovery policy that account for post-1918 economic changes.

Do Stronger Employment Discrimination Protections Decrease Reliance On Social Security Disability Insurance? Evidence From The U.S. Social Security Reforms, Patrick Button, Mashfiqur R. Khan

Upjohn Institute Working Papers

The United States Social Security Amendments of 1983 (SSA1983) increased the full retirement age (FRA) and increased penalties for retiring before the FRA. This cut to retirement benefits caused spillover effects on Social Security Disability Insurance (SSDI) applications and receipt by making SSDI relatively more generous. We explore if stronger disability and age discrimination laws moderated these spillovers, using variation whereby many state laws are broader or stronger than federal law. We estimate the effects of these laws on SSDI applications and receipt using a difference-in-differences approach, comparing cohorts affected by SSA1983 to similarly aged unaffected cohorts, across states. We …

Place-Based Policy: An Essay In Two Parts, Timothy J. Bartik

Upjohn Institute Policy Papers

Place-based policies that increase jobs in local labor markets can have large benefits, but current policies need reforms. Local job growth can have large benefits by increasing local employment-to-population ratios (employment rates). These employment rate benefits are larger if jobs are created in local labor markets that are distressed, or if new jobs are matched to the local nonemployed. Current place-based policies are mostly business tax incentives, provided by state and local governments. These incentives are costly per job actually created by the incentive. More cost-effective job creation are public services to businesses, such as customized job training or business …

The Enduring Local Harm From Recessions, Brad J. Hershbein, Bryan A. Stuart

Upjohn Institute Policy and Research Briefs

No abstract provided.

The Evolution Of Local Labor Markets After Recessions, Brad J. Hershbein, Bryan A. Stuart

Upjohn Institute Working Papers

This paper studies how U.S. local labor markets respond to employment losses that occur during recessions. Following recessions from 1973 through 2009, we find that areas that lose more jobs during the recession experience persistent relative declines in employment and population. Most importantly, these local labor markets also experience persistent decreases in the employment-population ratio, earnings per capita, and earnings per worker. Our results imply that limited population responses result in longer-lasting consequences for local labor markets than previously thought, and that recessions are followed by persistent reallocation of employment across space.

The National-Level Economic Impact Of The Manufacturing Extension Partnership (Mep): Estimates For Fiscal Year 2019, Jim Robey, Kathleen Bolter, Randall W. Eberts, Natalie Patten, Nick Perttunen

Reports

No abstract provided.

The Nebraska Economy Responds To The Covid-19 Pandemic, Eric Thompson

Business in Nebraska

The Nebraska economy will contract in 2020 but the rate of decline will not be as rapid as nationwide. The economic structure of Nebraska is more focused on production and transportation than the national economy and less focused on hard-hit industries such as hospitality, entertainment, automobile parts and assembly, and oil production. Nebraska also may benefit from a higher quality workforce, which is better able to adapt to changing economic conditions.

Employment will drop by 2.4% in Nebraska in 2020, much less than the national rate of decline. Employment will rebound by 2.0% in 2021 and 1.4% in 2022. With …

Firm Characteristics, Capabilities And Productivities: A Study Of Malaysian Food Manufacturing Sector, Tien Hong Lim

Student Works (2020-2029)

This research establishes and examines a set of firm productivity measures for the Malaysian food manufacturing industry. The research further examines the differences in productivity based on the firm’s characteristics and consequently examines the empirical relationship between firm capabilities namely marketing, ICT, R&D and human capital on labour productivity. The research uses cross sectional data comprising 1020 firms. Various methods were used in the research. Non-parametric analysis was undertaken to compare the productivity levels across firm characteristics while in examining the impact of capabilities on labour productivity the research uses quantile regression analysis. The finding shows that productivity differs based …

Options For Unemployment Insurance Structural And Administrative Reform: Proposals And Analysis, Stephen A. Wandner

Upjohn Institute Policy Papers

The unemployment insurance (UI) program is broken. UI benefits and taxes are out of balance, with benefit payments tending to exceed tax revenues, while the program is unable to provide adequate reemployment services to permanently separated UI recipients. The current crisis in the UI program has been building over the past four decades. Although UI and Social Security were both enacted as part of the Social Security Act, reforms to the programs have diverged sharply. Congress has frequently amended the Social Security program to increase benefits and taxes, and then in 1972 it enacted a permanent annual cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) …

Covid-19: Projected Job Loss In Mountain West States, Marie A. Falcone, Caitlin Saladino, William E. Brown

Economic Development & Workforce

This Fact Sheet highlights Mountain West data from the Economic Policy Institute (EPI) report titled, “States are projected to lose more jobs due to the coronavirus: 14 million jobs could be lost by summer.” The original data source provides figures on the estimated job loss from private sector employment in retail, leisure, and hospitality. This Fact Sheet examines the data for large metropolitan Mountain West states (including Arizona, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, and Utah) with projected job loss in the coming months due to the coronavirus.

Most Self-Employed Workers Are Independent Contractors, Katharine G. Abraham, Brad J. Hershbein, Susan N. Houseman

Upjohn Institute Policy and Research Briefs

No abstract provided.

Year Three Report: Evaluating The Kansas City Scholars College Scholarship Program, Kevin Hollenbeck, Bridget Timmeney, Brad J. Hershbein, Shane M. Reed

Reports

No abstract provided.

Coronavirus And The Economy: Repurposing Production, Helping The Needy, Saving Businesses, And Encouraging Job Preservation, Timothy J. Bartik, Brad J. Hershbein

Employment Research Newsletter

No abstract provided.

An Unemployment Insurance Covid-19 Crisis Response, Stephen A. Wandner, Christopher J. O'Leary

Employment Research Newsletter

No abstract provided.

Disaster Unemployment Assistance Would Help Gig, Contract, Self-Employed Workers Affected By Covid-19, Stephen A. Woodbury

Employment Research Newsletter

No abstract provided.

Using Nonexperimental Methods To Address Noncompliance, Daniel Litwok

Upjohn Institute Working Papers

The analysis compares estimates of the incremental impact for those who receive HPOG with a program enhancement to the standard HPOG program. The experimental benchmark for the incremental impact comes from two-stage least squares with random assignment as an instrumental variable for enhancement take-up. Then, ignoring the randomly assigned conditions, the analysis estimates the counterfactual for those who “take up” the enhancement using ordinary least squares and inverse propensity weighting. The analysis also tests whether adding information that is only available due to the experiment—who complied with their randomization status and who did not—improves the nonexperimental estimates. The analysis compares …

Understanding The Impact Of Psychological Empowerment, Workplace Motivation, And Social Capital On The Job Performance Of Farmers In Honduras: A Mixed Methods Study, Susan Lale Karimiha

LSU Doctoral Dissertations

A farmer’s job performance is critical to the production of raw materials such as food, fiber, and fuel and is therefore an important concern for individuals, businesses, and economies across the world. The literature on improving farmers’ job performance has focused more on introducing new technologies, and less on the psychosocial factors that improve job performance. The primary purpose of this study was to examine the impact of psychological empowerment, workplace motivation, and social capital on farmers’ job performance in Honduras.

A mixed methods approach was used to collect and analyze both quantitative and qualitative data. For quantitative data, a …

How Will The Covid-19 Recession Impact People With Disabilities In Rural America?, University Of Montana Rural Institute

Employment

This fact sheet discusses how people with disabilities, particularly those in rural areas, are especially vulnerable to the COVID-19 recession because they are less likely to have an emergency savings fund, have access to paid leave, or be able to work from home. It analyzes data from the 2015 and 2016 Survey of Household Economics and Decision-making (SHED) and the American Time Use Survey (ATUS) 2017-18 Leave and Job Flexibilities Module.

Productivity And Automation In Automotive Manufacturing: The Impact On Ohio Employment, James Olderham

Student Papers in Local and Global Regional Economies

The supposed decline of the United States manufacturing industry has been a central topic of political concerns and research for decades. The classic story is that America’s might in this sector was seen as the backbone of the economy and a central factor in the nation’s economic dominance relative to the rest of the world. In light of this, it’s easy to see how a decline in the manufacturing base has become such an important issue. In recent years, two main theories have emerged as to what is to blame for the loss American manufacturing jobs over the last two …

Un Análisis Histórico De La Respuesta De Organizaciones Sindicales A La Pandemia De Covid-19, Rachel Hodes

Independent Study Project (ISP) Collection

La historia social de los últimos ciento cincuenta años de Ecuador ha contribuido únicamente a las acciones de organizaciones sindicales durante la pandemia del COVID-19. Un análisis de los medios sociales de varios sindicatos durante la pandemia y las protestas del 1 de mayo 2020 revela desarrollos claves en cuatro áreas: la afiliación política, la construcción de solidaridad con el movimiento indígena, el enfoque en la educación, y la lucha contra la corrupción gubernamental. Patrones mayores incluyen la priorización continua de la educación por obreras incluso cuando enfrentan nuevos desafíos, la unidad de centrales sindicales contra el neoliberalismo y la …

Reforming Unemployment Insurance, Christopher J. O'Leary

Upjohn Institute Policy and Research Briefs

No abstract provided.

Green Jobs Guarantee, Coronavirus, And Public Sanitation, James Olderham

Student Papers in Local and Global Regional Economies

In recent years, the idea of the Government as an “employer of last resort” (ELR) has gained traction, both in the academic and general public spheres. While the origins of this idea can be traced through several economists, one of the most prominent conceptions of the policy comes from L. Randall Wray in his 1998 book Understanding Modern Money. In this piece, Wray outlines a policy whereby the government would offer meaningful employment to essentially anyone willing and able to work. The purpose would be to effectively solve the problem of involuntary unemployment. By putting this group of people to …

Distributed Manufacturing In Dayton: Combating Covid-19 Through Public Service Employment, Joshua Pham, Grayson Thacker

Student Papers in Local and Global Regional Economies

With the decline in manufacturing in the United States following the 1980s, many once thriving cities began to fall into economic stagnation and decline. Dayton, Ohio is one of these cities, experiencing a mass exodus of its central industry, leaving behind a labor force with mismatched skills for the current job environment and a lack of opportunity. Such unemployment has only been exacerbated by the Great Recession and the more recent economic shutdown, stemming from the COVID-19 pandemic. To combat this decline and slow march to destitution, this paper proposes the implementation of a public service employment program (PSE) that …

Policy Impact Evaluations On Labour And Health, Junxing Chay

Dissertations and Theses Collection (Open Access)

This dissertation consists of three chapters that evaluate the impacts of public policies on labour and health.

The first chapter studies a wage supplement scheme in Singapore, called the Workfare Income Supplement, which targets older low-income workers. I exploit differences in maximum benefits across age and over time to find that increasing benefits generosity encourages labour market participation and selfemployment. I also find improved life satisfaction and happiness among those with low education, who are likely to be eligible for the scheme. These results suggest that wage supplements can ease some burdens of an ageing population.

The second chapter investigates …

Does Trade Reduce Infant Mortality? Evidence From Sub-Saharan Africa, Pallavi Panda

School of Business

Trade can affect the development process of a country via various direct and indirect mechanisms. Empirically, it is difficult to identify causal effects, as trade is likely to be endogenous to other socio-economic factors that also affect development. To overcome this problem, this study uses a trade policy experiment called the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) which conferred many sub-Saharan African countries largely duty-free and quota-free access to US markets. Using retrospective birth histories from Demographic and Health Survey (DHS), I develop a large micro panel dataset that spans 30 sub-Saharan African countries and carry out a within-mother variation …

Forecasting Attrition By Afsc For The United States Air Force, Trey S. Pujats

Theses and Dissertations

Retention and personnel management is a challenge for every organization, particularly the military due to its hierarchical structure and barriers to entry. Talent must be developed and retained to become leaders, beginning at the lowest level in the Air Force. The Air Force faces a retention problem unlike most organizations that requires a unique perspective and tailored solution to each Air Force Specialty Code (AFSC). There exists previous efforts to predict attrition rates in the Air Force based on economic factors. This study expands upon the economic factors and tailors the predictor variables of attrition based on the AFSC. The …

Do Public Program Benefits Crowd Out Private Transfers In Developing Countries? A Critical Review Of Recent Evidence, Plamen Nikolov, Matthew Bonci

Economics Faculty Scholarship

Precipitated by rapid globalization, rising inequality, population growth, and longevity gains, social protection programs have been on the rise in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) in the last three decades. However, the introduction of public benefits could displace informal mechanisms for risk-protection, which are especially prevalent in LMICs. If the displacement of private transfers is considerably large, the expansion of social protection programs could even lead to social welfare loss. In this paper, we critically survey the recent empirical literature on crowd-out effects in response to public policies, specifically in the context of LMICs. We review and synthesize patterns from …

States Lack Adequate Unemployment Insurance Reserves, Christopher J. O'Leary

Upjohn Institute Policy and Research Briefs

No abstract provided.

State Unemployment Insurance Reserves Are Not Adequate, Christopher J. O'Leary, Kenneth J. Kline

Upjohn Institute Working Papers

Regular unemployment insurance (UI) benefits are paid from reserves held in state accounts at the U.S. Treasury. The Great Recession exhausted the majority of UI reserve accounts, and not all states have rebuilt reserves. We examine the adequacy of current state and systemwide UI reserves to weather a mild, moderate, or severe recession in the coming months. Our results suggest that a recession as severe as the average of those occurring since 1975 would cause 18 states to exhaust UI reserves. Our simulations account for the fact that several states have cut benefit generosity since the Great Recession ended. Results …

Contract Work At Older Ages, Katharine G. Abraham, Brad J. Hershbein, Susan N. Houseman

Upjohn Institute Working Papers

The share of workers who are self-employed rises markedly with age. Given policy concerns about inadequate retirement savings, especially among those with lower education, and the resulting interest in encouraging employment at older ages, it is important to understand the role that self-employment arrangements play in facilitating work among seniors. New data from a survey module fielded on a Gallup telephone survey distinguish independent contractor work from other self-employment and provide information on informal and online platform work. The Gallup data show that, especially after accounting for individuals who are miscoded as employees, self-employment is even more prevalent at older …