Labor Economics Commons^™

Built By Hand, Run By Machine: Robots And The Uneven Displacement Of Native And Migrant Workers In Germany (2012-2024), Farida Mohamed Elkhosht

Theses and Dissertations

This study investigates whether industrial robot adoption generates differential employment effects for native and migrant workers across German local labor markets, using district-level data for 393 districts over 2012–2024. This question matters because Germany combines one of the world's highest concentrations of industrial robots with one of the largest migrant workforces in the OECD. Despite growing policy interest in the distributional effects of technological change, limited evidence exists on whether automation affects native and migrant employment differently within the same local labor markets. Using Bartik shift-share design to measure exogenous variation in robot exposure, the study finds that the effect …

Benefits And Costs For Chattanooga Residents Of Incorporating Training Into Economic Development Strategies, Timothy J. Bartik, Iryna V. Lendel, Sevrin Williams

Upjohn Institute Technical Reports

This report evaluates the benefit-cost tradeoffs of adding a workforce training component to Chattanooga's economic development incentive packages, using the Bartik Benefit-Cost Model of Business Incentives. Focusing on hypothetical projects across seven industries, the analysis compares the present value of training costs against resulting gains in residents' per capita income over a 20-year horizon. Findings show that training, layered onto existing PILOT-based tax incentives, delivers benefits more than 25 times its costs—driven by training's greater cost-effectiveness in inducing business location decisions and its stronger tendency to direct new jobs toward local residents. While training is not self-financing from a city …

The Economic Benefits And Costs Of State And Local Incentives For Clean Energy Projects, Timothy J. Bartik, Gerrit Anderson, Brian J. Asquith, Kathleen Bolter, Kyle Huisman, Iryna V. Lendel, Jeremy Morris, Sevrin Williams

Upjohn Institute Policy and Research Briefs

No abstract provided.

How Incentive Design Affects The Benefit-Cost Ratio Of Clean Energy Projects, Timothy J. Bartik

Presentations

No abstract provided.

The Economic Benefits And Costs Of State And Local Incentives For Clean Energy Projects, Timothy J. Bartik, Gerrit Anderson, Brian J. Asquith, Kathleen Bolter, Kyle Huisman, Iryna V. Lendel, Jeremy Morris, Sevrin Williams

Upjohn Institute Technical Reports

This report evaluates the benefits and costs of investment incentives for 50 large clean energy supply chain manufacturing and infrastructure projects. The findings suggest that these incentives generate modest but typically positive economic returns, with a median benefit-cost ratio of 1.47, meaning benefits exceed costs by 47 percent for the typical project. Returns vary significantly across projects—approximately 70 percent of projects produced net positive benefits over a 20-year period, while 30 percent failed to recover incentive costs. Project performance depends heavily on incentive design and local conditions. Excessively large cash incentives reduce returns, while customized services, strong job multipliers, investment …

Upjohn Regional Economic Outlook, Iryna V. Lendel, Chloe Wieber, Sevrin Williams, Gerrit Anderson, Lee Adams, Emily Petz

Reports

No abstract provided.

How Changes In Mexican Immigration To The United States Affect Mexican Labor Markets, Gonzalo Ares De Parga-Regalado, Marta Prato

Employment Research Newsletter

No abstract provided.

Workforce Dynamics In Michigan's Upper Peninsula: Trends, Shocks, And Projections Through 2030, Iryna V. Lendel

Presentations

Michigan’s Upper Peninsula is navigating a complex economic transition shaped by demographic change, workforce aging, and sectoral concentration. While the region has experienced long-term population decline, its labor force has remained stable due to rising participation among older workers. At the same time, the U.P.’s economy remains highly concentrated in extraction, construction, and production industries. These industries offer strong wages but are sensitive to economic cycles.

This presentation highlights key findings on workforce structure, industry specialization, and the region’s capacity to respond to potential shocks, including major employer closures. Evidence shows substantial skill overlap across industries, creating opportunities for worker …

Workforce Dynamics In Michigan’S Upper Peninsula: Trends, Shocks, And Projections Through 2030, Iryna V. Lendel, Chloe Wieber, Sevrin Williams, Gerrit Anderson, Lee Adams

Upjohn Institute Technical Reports

This report examines the economic and workforce dynamics of Michigan’s Upper Peninsula (U.P.) through 2030, highlighting the region’s ongoing transition during population decline, workforce aging, and structural labor shortages. Despite these pressures, the U.P.’s labor force remains relatively stable due to increased participation among older workers, partially offsetting declines in prime-age cohorts. The region’s economy is highly specialized, with strong concentrations in extraction, construction, and production industries—sectors that offer high wages but are vulnerable to cyclical economic downturns.

Using a combination of demographic analysis, occupational data, and industry projections, the study identifies significant skill overlap across key industries, suggesting potential …

How Changes In Mexican Immigration To The United States Affect Mexican Labor Markets, Gonzalo Ares De Parga-Regalado, Marta Prato

Upjohn Institute Policy and Research Briefs

No abstract provided.

The Effects Of Declining U.S. Immigration On Local Labor Markets In Mexico, Gonzalo Ares De Parga-Regalado, Marta Prato

Upjohn Institute Working Papers

This paper examines how declining migration opportunities to the United States affect local labor markets in Mexico. Using novel micro-level data from consular identification cards and deportations, we link individuals’ Mexican municipalities of origin to their U.S. destination states. We implement a shift-share design based on historical migration networks and exploit regional variation in exposure to changes in U.S. migration flows between 2017 and 2022 to identify the local labor market effects of reduced emigration while controlling for involuntary repatriations. While we find no impact on overall employment rates, regions more exposed to the decline in migration experience an increase …

How Fair Workweek Laws Affect Labor Markets: A New York City Case Study, Joseph Pickens, Aaron Sojourner

Employment Research Newsletter

No abstract provided.

Nyc’S “Just Cause” Law Aims To Make It Harder To Fire Fast Food Workers. Does It?, Joseph Pickens, Aaron Sojourner

Upjohn Institute Policy and Research Briefs

No abstract provided.

Just Cause Protection Under Manager Discrimination, Joseph Pickens, Aaron Sojourner

Upjohn Institute Working Papers

“Just cause” policies aim to discourage the arbitrary firing of employees. Recent efforts at passing such laws in the U.S. have been motivated by deterring discrimination. This paper presents a framework to study the effects of just cause when managers engage in taste-based discrimination. The framework generates predictions on whether just cause will ease achievement and retention of stable employment by exploiting the timing of separations around a probationary period. Since probationary periods are a typical feature of protections, the approach is generalizable. We test predictions using New York City’s 2021 just cause law for fast-food employees. Using a synthetic …

How Fair Workweek Laws Affect Labor Markets: A New York City Case Study, Joseph Pickens, Aaron Sojourner

Upjohn Institute Policy and Research Briefs

No abstract provided.

Ten Lessons In Public–Private Partnerships To Create Good Jobs, Kathleen Bolter, Timothy J. Bartik, Brad J. Hershbein, Michelle Miller-Adams, Alfonso Hernandez, Kyle Huisman, Bridget Timmeney

Reports

No abstract provided.

Upper Peninsula Regional Economic Development Strategy, Iryna V. Lendel, Chloe Wieber, Gerrit Anderson, Sevrin Williams

Upjohn Institute Technical Reports

This comprehensive report describes the economy of Michigan’s Upper Peninsula, outlining both persistent issues and emerging opportunities. The region faces several structural challenges, including a decline in prime-age workers and bachelor’s degree attainment that falls below state and national averages, while shortages in housing and healthcare further limit its ability to attract and retain residents. Despite those challenges, the U.P.’s universities, longstanding industries, abundant natural resources, and robust outdoor recreation economy provide strong foundations for future development. The report recommends strategies such as strengthening retention of the talent pipeline, expanding housing and healthcare capacity, fostering small and mid-sized firms in …

Abundance Strategies Should Promote Abundant Jobs In Distressed Places, Timothy J. Bartik

Upjohn Institute Policy Papers

A prominent recent policy debate is about “abundance policies”: policies to make it easier to build housing or infrastructure, deliver government services more quickly and more efficiently, and expedite the public funding of the most innovative and socially impactful research. In this essay, I argue that abundance advocates often mistakenly ignore or have a negative attitude toward “place-based policies.” These place-based policies would seek to increase employment rates, particularly in good jobs, in two types of distressed places that lack abundant job opportunities: distressed local labor markets and distressed neighborhoods. Both the goals and means of place-based policies fit into …

How The H-2b Visa Lottery Helped Businesses During Covid, Parag Mahajan

Employment Research Newsletter

No abstract provided.

Effects Of Fair Workweek Laws On Labor Market Outcomes, Joseph Pickens, Aaron Sojourner

Upjohn Institute Working Papers

This paper models fair workweek regulations that require employers to provide employees with (1) schedule predictability via advance notice of their work schedule and premium payments for short-notice changes, and (2) access to hours meaning they must offer open hours to existing employees before hiring new workers. We develop a theoretical model of employers’ responses to these provisions and their implications for employment. Guided by the model, we estimate the effects of recently-adopted fair workweek regulation in New York City’s fast-food sector using a synthetic difference-in-differences design. We find a null employment effect.

Tulsa Remote’S Benefits For Other Tulsa Residents: Results And Implications, Timothy J. Bartik

Presentations

No abstract provided.

The Effects Of Tulsa Remote On Inducing Moves To Tulsa: Estimates And Implications, Timothy J. Bartik

Upjohn Institute Technical Reports

Tulsa Remote is one of the largest of over 100 remote worker attraction programs in the United States. Since its beginning in 2018, the program has provided generous incentives ($10,000 for moving to Tulsa and staying one year), along with accompanying networking services and incentives to encourage entrepreneurship, to over 3,000 Tulsa Remote member households, selected out of tens of thousands of applicants. Tulsa Remote’s purpose is to promote economic development in Tulsa. Tulsa Remote members spend more locally and generate fiscal benefits, as well as start up businesses and help make Tulsa more attractive for high-tech job growth. These …

Federal And State Governments Can Help Solve The Employment Problems Of People In Distressed Places To Spur Equitable Growth, Timothy J. Bartik

Upjohn Institute Policy Papers

Places in the United States differ greatly in their residents’ access to jobs, especially good jobs. Although the federal and state governments provide about $80 billion annually to create jobs through multiple programs, these job-creation initiatives are rarely targeted to economically distressed places, where the job-creation benefits for local residents are greatest. Moreover, many of these programs take the form of business tax incentives, which are less effective at job creation than customized services for businesses and workers. I argue that the prime-age employment rate of places should be used to target job-creation programs and review which such programs are …

How New Mass Transit Affects Labor Markets: The Honolulu Skyline, Justin Tyndall

Upjohn Institute Policy and Research Briefs

No abstract provided.

How The H-2b Visa Lottery Helped Businesses During Covid, Parag Mahajan

Upjohn Institute Policy and Research Briefs

No abstract provided.

“Essential” Migrants: Evidence From The 2020 H-2b Visa Lottery, Parag Mahajan

Upjohn Institute Working Papers

I study how access to foreign-born workers impacts firms and local economics in times of acute crisis. The 2020 H-2B visa lottery randomly gave some U.S. firms the chance to hire low-wage, migrant workers during the height of the COVID-19 pandemic. Using administrative data across three government agencies, I find that access to H-2B workers led to decreased business closures, increased revenues, increased payroll, and increased employment in 2020. I also find suggestive evidence that these effects spilled over to non-participant firms within the same county.

How Government-Funded Factories Helped A Generation Access The Middle Class, Andrew Garin, Jonathan Rothbaum

Upjohn Institute Policy and Research Briefs

No abstract provided.

Five Key Lessons For Five Core Groups Shaping Place-Based Policy, Kathleen Bolter, Timothy J. Bartik, Brad J. Hershbein, Michelle Miller-Adams, Alfonso Hernandez, Kyle Huisman, Bridget Timmeney

Reports

No abstract provided.

Predicting Rail Transit Impacts With Endogenous Worker Choice: Evidence From Oahu, Justin Tyndall

Upjohn Institute Working Papers

The provision of public transportation can improve the accessibility of work opportunities. However, predicting the labor market effects of new transit infrastructure is difficult because of endogenous worker decisions. I examine a large public-transit rail project on the island of Oahu, Hawaii. Using block-level commuter-flow and travel-time estimates, I propose and estimate a quantitative spatial model of location and mode choice for workers. I estimate that the new rail system increases public-transit-mode share and the employment rate but does not reduce the average commute duration, because of endogenous worker sorting. Low-income workers on Oahu capture a significant share of transit’s …

Introducing Slms: Spillover-Based Local Labor Markets, Timothy J. Bartik

Presentations

No abstract provided.