Statistical Models Commons^™

Development In Normal Mixture And Mixture Of Experts Modeling, Meng Qi

Theses and Dissertations--Statistics

In this dissertation, first we consider the problem of testing homogeneity and order in a contaminated normal model, when the data is correlated under some known covariance structure. To address this problem, we developed a moment based homogeneity and order test, and design weights for test statistics to increase power for homogeneity test. We applied our test to microarray about Down’s syndrome. This dissertation also studies a singular Bayesian information criterion (sBIC) for a bivariate hierarchical mixture model with varying weights, and develops a new data dependent information criterion (sFLIC).We apply our model and criteria to birth- weight and gestational …

Multi-State Models With Missing Covariates, Wenjie Lou

Theses and Dissertations--Statistics

Multi-state models have been widely used to analyze longitudinal event history data obtained in medical studies. The tools and methods developed recently in this area require the complete observed datasets. While, in many applications measurements on certain components of the covariate vector are missing on some study subjects. In this dissertation, several likelihood-based methodologies were proposed to deal with datasets with different types of missing covariates efficiently when applying multi-state models.

Firstly, a maximum observed data likelihood method was proposed when the data has a univariate missing pattern and the missing covariate is a categorical variable. The construction of the …

Topics In Logistic Regression Analysis, Zhiheng Xie

Theses and Dissertations--Statistics

Discrete-time Markov chains have been used to analyze the transition of subjects from intact cognition to dementia with mild cognitive impairment and global impairment as intervening transient states, and death as competing risk. A multinomial logistic regression model is used to estimate the probability distribution in each row of the one-step transition matrix that correspond to the transient states. We investigate some goodness of fit tests for a multinomial distribution with covariates to assess the fit of this model to the data. We propose a modified chi-square test statistic and a score test statistic for the multinomial assumption in each …

Developing An Alternative Way To Analyze Nanostring Data, Shu Shen

Theses and Dissertations--Statistics

Nanostring technology provides a new method to measure gene expressions. It's more sensitive than microarrays and able to do more gene measurements than RT-PCR with similar sensitivity. This system produces counts for each target gene and tabulates them. Counts can be normalized by using an Excel macro or nSolver before analysis. Both methods rely on data normalization prior to statistical analysis to identify differentially expressed genes. Alternatively, we propose to model gene expressions as a function of positive controls and reference gene measurements. Simulations and examples are used to compare this model with Nanostring normalization methods. The results show that …

Statistical Inference On Dynamical Systems, Hongyuan Wang

Theses and Dissertations--Statistics

The ordinary differential equation (ODE) is one representative and popular tool in modeling dynamical systems, which are widely implemented in physics, biology, economics, chemistry and biomedical sciences, etc. Because of the importance of dynamical systems in scientific studies, they are the main focuses of my dissertation.

The first chapter of the dissertation is introduction and literature review, which mainly focuses on numerical integration algorithms of ODEs that are difficult to solve analytically, as well as derivative-free optimization algorithms for the so-called inverse problem.

The second chapter is on the estimation method based on numerical solvers of differential equations. We start …

Statistical Methods For Environmental Exposure Data Subject To Detection Limits, Yuchen Yang

Theses and Dissertations--Statistics

In this dissertation, we develop unified and efficient nonparametric statistical methods for estimating and comparing environmental exposure distributions in presence of detection limits. In the first part, we propose a kernel-smoothed nonparametric estimator for the exposure distribution without imposing any independence assumption between the exposure level and detection limit. We show that the proposed estimator is consistent and asymptotically normal. Simulation studies demonstrate that the proposed estimator performs well in practical situations. A colon cancer study is provided for illustration. In the second part, we develop a class of test statistics to compare exposure distributions between two groups by using …

Improved Models For Differential Analysis For Genomic Data, Hong Wang

Theses and Dissertations--Statistics

This paper intend to develop novel statistical methods to improve genomic data analysis, especially for differential analysis. We considered two different data type: NanoString nCounter data and somatic mutation data. For NanoString nCounter data, we develop a novel differential expression detection method. The method considers a generalized linear model of the negative binomial family to characterize count data and allows for multi-factor design. Data normalization is incorporated in the model framework through data normalization parameters, which are estimated from control genes embedded in the nCounter system. For somatic mutation data, we develop beta-binomial model-based approaches to identify highly or lowly …

Continuous Time Multi-State Models For Interval Censored Data, Lijie Wan

Theses and Dissertations--Statistics

Continuous-time multi-state models are widely used in modeling longitudinal data of disease processes with multiple transient states, yet the analysis is complex when subjects are observed periodically, resulting in interval censored data. Recently, most studies focused on modeling the true disease progression as a discrete time stationary Markov chain, and only a few studies have been carried out regarding non-homogenous multi-state models in the presence of interval-censored data. In this dissertation, several likelihood-based methodologies were proposed to deal with interval censored data in multi-state models.

Firstly, a continuous time version of a homogenous Markov multi-state model with backward transitions was …

Black Cloud Randomization Test, Nicholas S. Vanni

Williams Honors College, Honors Research Projects

The Black Cloud Randomization Test looks at a nontraditional question and attempts to answer the question using unique statistics. The purpose of this paper is to apply what has been learned throughout the years and apply this knowledge to a final project. Data for this project follows an emergency room’s on call schedule, as well as the number of traumas that came in during each day shift. The project builds on what has been already learned and helps to open a different way of working with statistics. The project was coded in the R software. With different restrictions, there are …

Resolving Gnetum Evolutionary History, Angela Mcfadden

All Master's Theses

Gnetum are non-flowering seed plants of the tropics, indigenous to South America, Africa, and Asia. This group of about 40 species is fascinating to botanists because it shares distinctive morphological characteristics with flowering plants, such as broad leaves, woody stems, and flower-like strobili. There are still questions surrounding the relationships within the genus of Gnetum. With that in mind, I focused my work on generating phylogenetic hypotheses, using two molecular data sets: a concatenation of over 60 different chloroplast genes (66,815 base pairs), and the whole chloroplast genome (128,772 base pairs). This allowed me to compare the two phylogenies …

Dimension Reduction And Variable Selection, Hossein Moradi Rekabdarkolaee

Theses and Dissertations

High-dimensional data are becoming increasingly available as data collection technology advances. Over the last decade, significant developments have been taking place in high-dimensional data analysis, driven primarily by a wide range of applications in many fields such as genomics, signal processing, and environmental studies. Statistical techniques such as dimension reduction and variable selection play important roles in high dimensional data analysis. Sufficient dimension reduction provides a way to find the reduced space of the original space without a parametric model. This method has been widely applied in many scientific fields such as genetics, brain imaging analysis, econometrics, environmental sciences, etc. …

Space-Time Modelling Of Emerging Infectious Diseases: Assessing Leptospirosis Risk In Sri Lanka, Cameron C F Plouffe

Theses and Dissertations (Comprehensive)

In this research, models were developed to analyze leptospirosis incidence in Sri Lanka and its relation to rainfall. Before any leptospirosis risk models were developed, rainfall data were evaluated from an agro-ecological monitoring network for producing maps of total monthly rainfall in Sri Lanka. Four spatial interpolation techniques were compared: inverse distance weighting, thin-plate splines, ordinary kriging, and Bayesian kriging. Error metrics were used to validate interpolations against independent data. Satellite data were used to assess the spatial pattern of rainfall. Results indicated that Bayesian kriging and splines performed best in low and high rainfall, respectively. Rainfall maps generated from …

A Statistical Model For The Prediction Of Dissolved Oxygen Dynamics And The Potential For Hypoxia In The Mississippi Sound And Bight, Andreas Moshogianis

Master's Theses

Hypoxia events occur when dissolved oxygen concentrations fall below the minimum threshold (dissolved oxygen concentrations < 2 mg O₂ L^-1) necessary to avoid respiratory distress among aquatic organisms. In the Mississippi Sound and Bight, hypoxia is most prevalent from late-spring through late summer. Since hypoxia events can have dramatic effects on coastal fisheries, the spatial and temporal magnitude of hypoxia presents a clear threat to the productive fisheries in the northern Gulf of Mexico. Long-term hydrographic data were collected from eight sampling stations on a monthly basis from January 2009 to December 2011 along a cross-shelf transect from the mouth of …

Predicting Intraday Financial Market Dynamics Using Takens' Vectors; Incorporating Causality Testing And Machine Learning Techniques, Abubakar-Sadiq Bouda Abdulai

Electronic Theses and Dissertations

Traditional approaches to predicting financial market dynamics tend to be linear and stationary, whereas financial time series data is increasingly nonlinear and non-stationary. Lately, advances in dynamical systems theory have enabled the extraction of complex dynamics from time series data. These developments include theory of time delay embedding and phase space reconstruction of dynamical systems from a scalar time series. In this thesis, a time delay embedding approach for predicting intraday stock or stock index movement is developed. The approach combines methods of nonlinear time series analysis with those of causality testing, theory of dynamical systems and machine learning (artificial …

Sinkhole Vulnerability Mapping: Results From A Pilot Study In North Central Florida, Clint Kromhout, Alan E. Baker

Sinkhole Conference 2015

At the end of June in 2012, Tropical Storm Debby dropped a record amount of rainfall across Florida which triggered hundreds, if not thousands, of sinkholes to form which resulted in tremendous damage to property. The Florida Division of Emergency Management contracted with the Florida Department of Environmental Protection’s Florida Geological Survey to produce a map depicting the state’s vulnerability to sinkhole formation. The three-year project began with a pilot study in three northern Florida counties: Columbia, Hamilton and Suwannee. Utilizing the statistical modeling method Weights of Evidence, results from the pilot study yielded a 93 percent success rate of …

Prediction: The Quintessential Model Validation Test, Wayne Wakeland

Systems Science Friday Noon Seminar Series

It is essential to objectively test how well policy models predict real world behavior. The method used to support this assertion involves the review of three SD policy models emphasizing the degree to which the model was able to fit the historical outcome data and how well model-predicted outcomes matched real world outcomes as they unfolded. Findings indicate that while historical model agreement is a favorable indication of model validity, the act of making predictions without knowing the actual data, and comparing these predictions to actual data, can reveal model weaknesses that might be overlooked when all of the available …

An Evolutionary Vaccination Game In The Modified Activity Driven Network By Considering The Closeness, Dun Han, Mei Sun

Publications and Research

In this paper, we explore an evolutionary vaccination game in the modified activity driven network by considering the closeness. We set a closeness parameter p which is used to describe the way of connection between two individuals. The simulation results show that the closeness p may have an active role in weakening both the spreading of epidemic and the vaccination. Besides, when vaccination is not allowed, the final recovered density increases with the value of the ratio of the infection rate to the recovery rate λ/μ. However, when vaccination is allowed the final density of recovered individual first increases and …

A Pairwise Likelihood Augmented Estimator For The Cox Model Under Left-Truncation, Fan Wu, Sehee Kim, Jing Qin, Rajiv Saran, Yi Li

The University of Michigan Department of Biostatistics Working Paper Series

Survival data collected from prevalent cohorts are subject to left-truncation and the analysis is challenging. Conditional approaches for left-truncated data under the Cox model are inefficient as they typically ignore the information in the marginal likelihood of the truncation times. Length-biased sampling methods can improve the estimation efficiency but only when the stationarity assumption of the disease incidence holds, i.e., the truncation distribution is uniform; otherwise they may generate biased estimates. In this paper, we propose a semi-parametric method for the Cox model under general left-truncation, where the truncation distribution is unspecified. Our approach is to make inference based on …

Preparedness Of Hospitals In The Republic Of Ireland For An Influenza Pandemic, An Infection Control Perspective, Mary Reidy, Fiona Ryan, Dervla Hogan, Seán Lacey, Claire Buckley

Department of Mathematics Publications

When an influenza pandemic occurs most of the population is susceptible and attack rates can range as high as 40–50 %. The most important failure in pandemic planning is the lack of standards or guidelines regarding what it means to be ‘prepared’. The aim of this study was to assess the preparedness of acute hospitals in the Republic of Ireland for an influenza pandemic from an infection control perspective.

A Gene-Based Association Method For Mapping Traits Using Reference Transcriptome Data, Eric R. Gamazon, Heather Wheeler, Kaanan P. Shah, Sahar V. Mozaffari, Keston Aquino-Michaels, Robert J. Carroll, Anne E. Eyler, Joshua C. Denny, Gtex Consortium, Dan L. Nicolae, Nancy J. Cox, Hae Kyung Im

Bioinformatics Faculty Publications

Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have identified thousands of variants robustly associated with complex traits. However, the biological mechanisms underlying these associations are, in general, not well understood. We propose a gene-based association method called PrediXcan that directly tests the molecular mechanisms through which genetic variation affects phenotype. The approach estimates the component of gene expression determined by an individual’s genetic profile and correlates ‘imputed’ gene expression with the phenotype under investigation to identify genes involved in the etiology of the phenotype. Genetically regulated gene expression is estimated using whole-genome tissue-dependent prediction models trained with reference transcriptome data sets. PrediXcan enjoys …

Research On Port Network Layout From The Perspective Of Sea Ports And Dry Ports Linked Development Under The Background Of “Obor”, Yameng Guo

World Maritime University Dissertations

No abstract provided.

The Optimization Research Of Southeast Asian Container Liner Routes Of Sitc Company, Sheng Sheng

World Maritime University Dissertations

No abstract provided.

Research On Liner Shipping Schedule Recovery, Xiaye Tang

World Maritime University Dissertations

No abstract provided.

The Analysis Of Bdti In Tanker Transport Market, Zhisen Wang

World Maritime University Dissertations

No abstract provided.

The Impact Of Panama Canal Expansion On The U.S. Gateway Ports’ Attractiveness To The Discretionary Cargo Shippers, Jie Xu

World Maritime University Dissertations

No abstract provided.

Historical Prediction Modeling Approach For Estimating Long-Term Concentrations Of Pm In Cohort Studies Before The 1999 Implementation Of Widespread Monitoring, Sun-Young Kim, Casey Olives, Lianne Sheppard, Paul D. Sampson, Timothy V. Larson, Joel Kaufman

UW Biostatistics Working Paper Series

Introduction: Recent cohort studies use exposure prediction models to estimate the association between long-term residential concentrations of PM_2.5 and health. Because these prediction models rely on PM_2.5 monitoring data, predictions for times before extensive spatial monitoring present a challenge to understanding long-term exposure effects. The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Federal Reference Method (FRM) network for PM_2.5 was established in 1999. We evaluated a novel statistical approach to produce high quality exposure predictions from 1980-2010 for epidemiological applications.

Methods: We developed spatio-temporal prediction models using geographic predictors and annual average PM_2.5 data from 1999 through 2010 from …

Model Selection For Gaussian Mixture Models For Uncertainty Qualification, Yiyi Chen, Guang Lin, Xuan Liu

The Summer Undergraduate Research Fellowship (SURF) Symposium

Clustering is task of assigning the objects into different groups so that the objects are more similar to each other than in other groups. Gaussian Mixture model with Expectation Maximization method is the one of the most general ways to do clustering on large data set. However, this method needs the number of Gaussian mode as input(a cluster) so it could approximate the original data set. Developing a method to automatically determine the number of single distribution model will help to apply this method to more larger context. In the original algorithm, there is a variable represent the weight of …

Beta-Binomial Kriging: A New Approach To Modeling Spatially Correlated Proportions, Aimee Schwab

Department of Statistics: Dissertations, Theses, and Student Research

Spatially correlated count data sets appear often in applied data analysis problems, but there is little consensus in the literature about how best to analyze the data. The two prevailing approaches provide accurate parameter estimates and predictions, at the cost of model interpretability and simplicity. This dissertation will present a new approach to modeling spatially correlated binomial observations: beta-binomial kriging. The model proposed here is a modified form of spatial kriging which assumes the data are generated from a correlated beta-binomial distribution. Given this assumption, the spatial parameters and predicted values can be estimated using simple matrix algebra. Beta-binomial kriging …

Computational Modeling Of Rna-Small Molecule And Rna-Protein Interactions, Lu Chen

Dissertations and Theses (Open Access)

The past decade has witnessed an era of RNA biology; despite the considerable discoveries nowadays, challenges still remain when one aims to screen RNA-interacting small molecule or RNA-interacting protein. These challenges imply an immediate need for cost-efficient while predictive computational tools capable of generating insightful hypotheses to discover novel RNA-interacting small molecule or RNA-interacting protein. Thus, we implemented novel computational models in this dissertation to predict RNA-ligand interactions (Chapter 1) and RNA-protein interactions (Chapter 2).

Targeting RNA has not garnered comparable interest as protein, and is restricted by lack of computational tools for structure-based drug design. To test the potential …

Comparison Of Two Parameter Estimation Techniques For Stochastic Models, Thomas C. Robacker

Electronic Theses and Dissertations

Parameter estimation techniques have been successfully and extensively applied to deterministic models based on ordinary differential equations but are in early development for stochastic models. In this thesis, we first investigate using parameter estimation techniques for a deterministic model to approximate parameters in a corresponding stochastic model. The basis behind this approach lies in the Kurtz limit theorem which implies that for large populations, the realizations of the stochastic model converge to the deterministic model. We show for two example models that this approach often fails to estimate parameters well when the population size is small. We then develop a …