Statistical Models Commons^™

Effects Of Tactical Responses And Risk Aversion On Farm Wheat Supply, Ross S. Kingwell

Natural Resources Research Articles

A discrete stochastic programming model of the farming system of the eastern wheatbelt of Western Australia is used to examine the effect of tactical responses and risk aversion on wheat supply. Including within-season tactical changes to wheat areas decreases the own-price elasticity of supply. By contrast, introducing risk aversion has no consistent effect on the own-price elasticity of supply. The implications for supply models are discussed.

Predicting Utility Bills For Air Combat Command A Study Of Forecasting Techniques, William L. Luthie

Engineering Management & Systems Engineering Theses & Dissertations

Many companies use forecasting techniques as a tool in managing their assets. Trends in such items as sales, population and inventory levels have all been determined at one time or another using forecasting, yet research indicates that these tools have not been utilized to predict utility budgets. This research was conducted to determine if such techniques could be applied to the specific task of predicting the utility bill at an Air Force base. Three quantitative models were chosen, the Moving Average, Exponential Smoothing and Regression, to determine their applicability to the task at hand. One base within Air Combat Command, …

Groundwater Model Parameter Estimation Using Response Surface Methodology, Richard M. Cotman

Theses and Dissertations

This thesis examined the use of response surface methodology (RSM) to estimate the parameters of a finite-element groundwater model. An existing two-dimensional, steady-state flow model of a fractured carbonate groundwater system in southwestern Ohio served as the calibration target data set. A Plackett-Burman screening design showed that only four of the ten hydraulic conductivity zones significantly contributed to the output of the finite-element model. Also, the effective porosity parameter did not significantly affect the model's output. Using only the four significant hydraulic conductivity parameters; four two-level, four-factor designed experiments were conducted to exploit the first-order response surface defined by a …

Comparing Traditional Statistical Models With Neural Network Models: The Case Of The Relation Of Human Performance Factors To The Outcomes Of Military Combat, William Oliver Hedgepeth

Engineering Management & Systems Engineering Theses & Dissertations

Statistics and neural networks are analytical methods used to learn about observed experience. Both the statistician and neural network researcher develop and analyze data sets, draw relevant conclusions, and validate the conclusions. They also share in the challenge of creating accurate predictions of future events with noisy data.

Both analytical methods are investigated. This is accomplished by examining the veridicality of both with real system data. The real system used in this project is a database of 400 years of historical military combat. The relationships among the variables represented in this database are recognized as being hypercomplex and nonlinear.

The …