Statistical Models Commons^™

Saturated Hierarchical Atomic Incremental Learning (Shail): A Behavioral Learning Perspective On Staged Mastery And Saturation, Ernest Fokoue

Articles

We introduce Saturated Hierarchical Atomic Incremental Learning (sHAIL), a learning paradigm in which complex tasks are approached through a sequence of simpler atomic subtasks, each mastered to saturation before progression. The central mechanism is a saturation criterion that detects when learning dynamics enter a plateau region, triggering consolidation and subsequent ascent to a higher level of task complexity. We develop a theoretical framework for sHAIL and show that it naturally gives rise to \emph{staircased convergence}: alternating phases of rapid improvement and genuine plateau. Within each level, classical convergence guarantees apply under standard smoothness conditions, while the hierarchical transitions are driven …

No Intelligence Without Statistics: The Invisible Backbone Of Artificial Intelligence, Ernest Fokoue

Articles

The rapid ascent of artificial intelligence (AI) is often portrayed as a revolution born from computer science and engineering. This narrative, however, obscures a fundamental truth: the theoretical and methodological core of AI is, and has always been, statistical. This paper systematically argues that the field of statistics provides the indispensable foundation for machine learning and modern AI. We deconstruct AI into nine foundational pillars—Inference, Density Estimation, Sequential Learning, Generalization, Representation Learning, Interpretability, Causality, Optimization, and Unification—demonstrating that each is built upon century-old statistical principles. From the inferential frameworks of hypothesis testing and estimation that underpin model evaluation, to the …

Decorrelation, Diversity, And Emergent Intelligence: The Isomorphism Between Social Insect Colonies And Ensemble Machine Learning, Ernest Fokoue, Gregory Babbitt, Yuval Levental

Articles

Social insect colonies and ensemble machine learning methods represent two of the most successful examples of decentralized information processing in nature and computation respectively. Here we develop a rigorous mathematical framework demonstrating that ant colony decision-making and random forest learning are isomorphic under a common formalism of stochastic ensemble intelligence. We show that the mechanisms by which genetically identical ants achieve functional differentiation— through stochastic response to local cues and positive feedback—map precisely onto the bootstrap aggregation and random feature subsampling that decorrelate decision trees. Using tools from Bayesian inference, multi-armed bandit theory, and statistical learning theory, we prove that …

A General Weighting Theory For Ensemble Learning: Beyond Variance Reduction Via Spectral And Geometric Structure, Ernest Fokoue

Articles

Ensemble learning is traditionally justified as a variance-reduction strategy, explaining its strong performance for unstable predictors such as decision trees. This explanation, however, does not account for ensembles constructed from intrinsically stable estimators-including smoothing splines, kernel ridge regression, Gaussian process regression, and other regularized reproducing kernel Hilbert space (RKHS) methods whose variance is already tightly controlled by regularization and spectral shrinkage. This paper develops a general weighting theory for ensemble learning that moves beyond classical variance-reduction arguments. We formalize ensembles as linear operators acting on a hypothesis space and endow the space of weighting sequences with geometric and spectral constraints. …

On Fibonacci Ensembles: An Alternative Approach To Ensemble Learning Inspired By The Timeless Architecture Of The Golden Ratio, Ernest Fokoue

Articles

Nature rarely reveals her secrets bluntly, yet in the Fibonacci sequence she grants us a glimpse of her quiet architecture of growth, harmony, and recursive stability \citep{Koshy2001Fibonacci, Livio2002GoldenRatio}. From spiral galaxies to the unfolding of leaves, this humble sequence reflects a universal grammar of balance. In this work, we introduce \emph{Fibonacci Ensembles}, a mathematically principled yet philosophically inspired framework for ensemble learning that complements and extends classical aggregation schemes such as bagging, boosting, and random forests \citep{Breiman1996Bagging, Breiman2001RandomForests, Friedman2001GBM, Zhou2012Ensemble, HastieTibshiraniFriedman2009ESL}. Two intertwined formulations unfold: (1) the use of normalized Fibonacci weights -- tempered through orthogonalization and Rao--Blackwell optimization -- …

Learning Ordinal Geometry: Semantic–Aware Kernels For Ordered Categorical Data, Ernest Fokoue

Articles

Ordinal data arise ubiquitously in survey research, psychology, medicine, economics, and recommender systems, yet kernel methods for such data typically rely on either nominal encodings or arbitrary numeric codings. The former discards order information; the lat- ter imposes a fictitious metric structure. This paper develops a principled framework for kernel design on ordinal scales and introduces a new class of Semantic–Aware Ordinal Ker- nels (SAOK) that simultaneously capture ordinal order and semantic proximity between categories. We begin by formalizing order–preserving embeddings of finite chains and characterizing a broad family of chain distances that are conditionally negative definite. Through Schoen- berg …

Dynamic Influence Diagram-Based Deep Reinforcement Learning Framework And Application For Decision Support For Operators In Control Rooms, Joseph Mietkiewicz, Ammar N. Abbas, Chidera W. Amazu, Anders L. Madsen, Gabriele Baldissone

Articles

In today’s complex industrial environment, operators are often faced with challenging situations that require quick and accurate decision-making. The human-machine interface (HMI) can display too much information, leading to information overload and potentially compromising the operator’s ability to respond effectively. To address this challenge, decision support models are needed to assist operators in identifying and responding to potential safety incidents. In this paper, we present an experiment to evaluate the effectiveness of a recommendation system in addressing the challenge of information overload. The case study focuses on a formaldehyde production simulator and examines the performance of an improved Human-Machine Interface …

Enhancing Control Room Operator Decision Making: An Application Of Dynamic Influence Diagrams In Formaldehyde Manufacturing, Joseph Mietkiewicz, Anders L. Madsen

Articles

Intoday’s rapidly evolving industrial landscape, control room operators must grapple with an ever-growing array of tasks and respon sibilities. One major challenge facing these operators is the potential for task overload, which can lead to decision fatigue and increased reliance on cognitive biases. To address this issue, we propose the use of dynamic influence diagrams (DID) as the core of our decision support system. By monitoring the process over time and identifying anomalies, DIDs can recommend the most effective course of action based on a probabilistic assessment of future outcomes. Instead of letting the operator choose or search for the …

Italian Sociologists: A Community Of Disconnected Groups, Aliakbar Akbaritabar, Vincent Traag, Alberto Caimo, Flaminio Squazzoni

Articles

Examining coauthorship networks is key to study scientific collaboration patterns and structural characteristics of scientific communities. Here, we studied coauthorship networks of sociologists in Italy, using temporal and multi-level quantitative analysis. By looking at publications indexed in Scopus, we detected research communities among Italian sociologists. We found that Italian sociologists are fractured in many disconnected groups. The giant connected component of the Italian sociology could be split into five main groups with a mixture of three main disciplinary topics: sociology of culture and communication (present in two groups), economic sociology (present in three groups) and general sociology (present in three …

Modelling Interactions Among Offenders: A Latent Space Approach For Interdependent Ego-Networks, Isabella Gollini, Alberto Caimo, Paolo Campana

Articles

Illegal markets are notoriously difficult to study. Police data offer an increasingly exploited source of evidence. However, their secondary nature poses challenges for researchers. A key issue is that researchers often have to deal with two sets of actors: targeted and non-targeted. This work develops a latent space model for interdependent ego-networks purposely created to deal with the targeted nature of police evidence. By treating targeted offenders as egos and their contacts as alters, the model (a) leverages on the full information available and (b) mirrors the specificity of the data collection strategy. The paper then applies this approach to …

A Multilayer Exponential Random Graph Modelling Approach For Weighted Networks, Alberto Caimo, Isabella Gollini

Articles

A new modelling approach for the analysis of weighted networks with ordinal/polytomous dyadic values is introduced. Specifically, it is proposed to model the weighted network connectivity structure using a hierarchical multilayer exponential random graph model (ERGM) generative process where each network layer represents a different ordinal dyadic category. The network layers are assumed to be generated by an ERGM process conditional on their closest lower network layers. A crucial advantage of the proposed method is the possibility of adopting the binary network statistics specification to describe both the between-layer and across-layer network processes and thus facilitating the interpretation of the …

A Geometric Derivation Of The Irwin-Hall Distribution, James E. Marengo, Lucas Stefanic, David L. Farnsworth

Articles

The Irwin-Hall distribution is the distribution of the sum of a finite number of independent identically distributed uniform random variables on the unit interval. Many applications arise since round-off errors have a transformed Irwin-Hall distribution and the distribution supplies spline approximations to normal distributions. We review some of the distribution’s history. The present derivation is very transparent, since it is geometric and explicitly uses the inclusion-exclusion principle. In certain special cases, the derivation can be extended to linear combinations of independent uniform random variables on other intervals of finite length.The derivation adds to the literature about methodologies for finding distributions …

Bayesian Exponential Random Graph Modelling Of Interhospital Patient Referral Networks, Alberto Caimo, Francesca Pallotti, Alessandro Lomi

Articles

Using original data that we have collected on referral relations between 110 hospitals serving a large regional community, we show how recently derived Bayesian exponential random graph models may be adopted to illuminate core empirical issues in research on relational coordination among healthcare organisations. We show how a rigorous Bayesian computation approach supports a fully probabilistic analytical framework that alleviates well-known problems in the estimation of model parameters of exponential random graph models. We also show how the main structural features of interhospital patient referral networks that prior studies have described can be reproduced with accuracy by specifying the system …

Why Is An Einstein Ring Blue?, Jonathan Blackledge

Articles

Albert Einstein predicted the existence of `Einstein rings' as a consequence of his general theory of relativity. The phenomenon is a direct result of the idea that if a mass warps space-time then light (and other electromagnetic waves) will be `lensed' by the strong gravitational field produced by a large cosmological body such as a galaxy. Since 1998, when the first complete Einstein ring was observed, many more complete or partially complete Einstein rings have been observed in the radio and infrared spectra, for example, and by the Hubble Space Telescope in the optical spectrum. However, in the latter case, …

Encryption Using Deterministic Chaos, Jonathan Blackledge, Nikolai Ptitsyn

Articles

The concepts of randomness, unpredictability, complexity and entropy form the basis of modern cryptography and a cryptosystem can be interpreted as the design of a key-dependent bijective transformation that is unpredictable to an observer for a given computational resource. For any cryptosystem, including a Pseudo-Random Number Generator (PRNG), encryption algorithm or a key exchange scheme, for example, a cryptanalyst has access to the time series of a dynamic system and knows the PRNG function (the algorithm that is assumed to be based on some iterative process) which is taken to be in the public domain by virtue of the Kerchhoff-Shannon …

Application Of The Fractal Market Hypothesis For Modelling Macroeconomic Time Series, Jonathan Blackledge

Articles

This paper explores the conceptual background to financial time series analysis and financial signal processing in terms of the Efficient Market Hypothesis. By revisiting the principal conventional approaches to market analysis and the reasoning associated with them, we develop a Fractal Market Hypothesis that is based on the application of non-stationary fractional dynamics using an operator of the type
∂² / ∂x² − σ^q(t) * ∂ ^q(t)/ ∂t^q(t)

where σ⁻¹ is the fractional diffusivity and q is the Fourier dimension which, for the topology considered, (i.e. the one-dimensional case) is related to the Fractal …

Diffusion And Fractional Diffusion Based Models For Multiple Light Scattering And Image Analysis, Jonathan Blackledge

Articles

This paper considers a fractional light diffusion model as an approach to characterizing the case when intermediate scattering processes are present, i.e. the scattering regime is neither strong nor weak. In order to introduce the basis for this approach, we revisit the elements of formal scattering theory and the classical diffusion problem in terms of solutions to the inhomogeneous wave and diffusion equations respectively. We then address the significance of these equations in terms of a random walk model for multiple scattering. This leads to the proposition of a fractional diffusion equation for modelling intermediate strength scattering that is based …