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Articles 1 - 12 of 12
Full-Text Articles in Statistical Models
Application Of Sentiment Analysis And Machine Learning Techniques To Predict Daily Cryptocurrency Price Returns, Edward Wu
CMC Senior Theses
This paper examines the effects of social media sentiment relating to Bitcoin on the daily price returns of Bitcoin and other popular cryptocurrencies by utilizing sentiment analysis and machine learning techniques to predict daily price returns. Many investors think that social media sentiment affects cryptocurrency prices. However, the results of this paper find that social media sentiment relating to Bitcoin does not add significant predictive value to forecasting daily price returns for each of the six cryptocurrencies used for analysis and that machine learning models that do not assume linearity between the current day price return and previous daily price …
Information Prioritization: A Comparison Between Utility Maximizers And Probability Matchers, Yusuf Ismaeel
Information Prioritization: A Comparison Between Utility Maximizers And Probability Matchers, Yusuf Ismaeel
CMC Senior Theses
This thesis examines the differences between probability matchers and utility maximizers in their preferences for information sources in a lab environment. In this paper, we consider the best source of information to be the most connected one. We conducted several linear probability model type regressions along with logit regressions. Furthermore, we also attempted to control and fix any potential misclassifications in classifying the cognitive strategy by using instrumental variables. The results show that utility maximizers will almost always choose the most informed node. Probability matchers, on the other hand, do not exhibit such a behavior as the probability matching strategy …
How Machine Learning And Probability Concepts Can Improve Nba Player Evaluation, Harrison Miller
How Machine Learning And Probability Concepts Can Improve Nba Player Evaluation, Harrison Miller
CMC Senior Theses
In this paper I will be breaking down a scholarly article, written by Sameer K. Deshpande and Shane T. Jensen, that proposed a new method to evaluate NBA players. The NBA is the highest level professional basketball league in America and stands for the National Basketball Association. They proposed to build a model that would result in how NBA players impact their teams chances of winning a game, using machine learning and probability concepts. I preface that by diving into these concepts and their mathematical backgrounds. These concepts include building a linear model using ordinary least squares method, the bias …
K-Means Stock Clustering Analysis Based On Historical Price Movements And Financial Ratios, Shu Bin
K-Means Stock Clustering Analysis Based On Historical Price Movements And Financial Ratios, Shu Bin
CMC Senior Theses
The 2015 article Creating Diversified Portfolios Using Cluster Analysis proposes an algorithm that uses the Sharpe ratio and results from K-means clustering conducted on companies' historical financial ratios to generate stock market portfolios. This project seeks to evaluate the performance of the portfolio-building algorithm during the beginning period of the COVID-19 recession. S&P 500 companies' historical stock price movement and their historical return on assets and asset turnover ratios are used as dissimilarity metrics for K-means clustering. After clustering, stock with the highest Sharpe ratio from each cluster is picked to become a part of the portfolio. The economic and …
Bayesian Hierarchical Meta-Analysis Of Asymptomatic Ebola Seroprevalence, Peter Brody-Moore
Bayesian Hierarchical Meta-Analysis Of Asymptomatic Ebola Seroprevalence, Peter Brody-Moore
CMC Senior Theses
The continued study of asymptomatic Ebolavirus infection is necessary to develop a more complete understanding of Ebola transmission dynamics. This paper conducts a meta-analysis of eight studies that measure seroprevalence (the number of subjects that test positive for anti-Ebolavirus antibodies in their blood) in subjects with household exposure or known case-contact with Ebola, but that have shown no symptoms. In our two random effects Bayesian hierarchical models, we find estimated seroprevalences of 8.76% and 9.72%, significantly higher than the 3.3% found by a previous meta-analysis of these eight studies. We also produce a variation of this meta-analysis where we exclude …
Predictive Golf Analytics Versus The Daily Fantasy Sports Market, John O'Malley
Predictive Golf Analytics Versus The Daily Fantasy Sports Market, John O'Malley
CMC Senior Theses
This study examines the different skills necessary for PGA tour players to succeed at specific annual tournaments, in order to create a predictive model for DraftKings PGA contests. The model takes into account data from the PGA Tour ShotLink Intelligence Program. The predictive model is created each week based on past results from the specific tournament in question, with the hope of predicting a group of twenty-five players who should be successful based on their statistical profile. The results of the model are detailed in this paper, which covers the first nine weeks of the 2017 PGA Tour season, with …
Acceptance-Rejection Sampling With Hierarchical Models, Christian A. Ayala
Acceptance-Rejection Sampling With Hierarchical Models, Christian A. Ayala
CMC Senior Theses
Hierarchical models provide a flexible way of modeling complex behavior. However, the complicated interdependencies among the parameters in the hierarchy make training such models difficult. MCMC methods have been widely used for this purpose, but can often only approximate the necessary distributions. Acceptance-rejection sampling allows for perfect simulation from these often unnormalized distributions by drawing from another distribution over the same support. The efficacy of acceptance-rejection sampling is explored through application to a small dataset which has been widely used for evaluating different methods for inference on hierarchical models. A particular algorithm is developed to draw variates from the posterior …
Applications Of Monte Carlo Methods In Statistical Inference Using Regression Analysis, Ji Young Huh
Applications Of Monte Carlo Methods In Statistical Inference Using Regression Analysis, Ji Young Huh
CMC Senior Theses
This paper studies the use of Monte Carlo simulation techniques in the field of econometrics, specifically statistical inference. First, I examine several estimators by deriving properties explicitly and generate their distributions through simulations. Here, simulations are used to illustrate and support the analytical results. Then, I look at test statistics where derivations are costly because of the sensitivity of their critical values to the data generating processes. Simulations here establish significance and necessity for drawing statistical inference. Overall, the paper examines when and how simulations are needed in studying econometric theories.
Scalable Collaborative Filtering Recommendation Algorithms On Apache Spark, Walker Evan Casey
Scalable Collaborative Filtering Recommendation Algorithms On Apache Spark, Walker Evan Casey
CMC Senior Theses
Collaborative filtering based recommender systems use information about a user's preferences to make personalized predictions about content, such as topics, people, or products, that they might find relevant. As the volume of accessible information and active users on the Internet continues to grow, it becomes increasingly difficult to compute recommendations quickly and accurately over a large dataset. In this study, we will introduce an algorithmic framework built on top of Apache Spark for parallel computation of the neighborhood-based collaborative filtering problem, which allows the algorithm to scale linearly with a growing number of users. We also investigate several different variants …
Nfl Betting Market: Using Adjusted Statistics To Test Market Efficiency And Build A Betting Model, James P. Donnelly
Nfl Betting Market: Using Adjusted Statistics To Test Market Efficiency And Build A Betting Model, James P. Donnelly
CMC Senior Theses
The use of statistical analysis has been prevalent in the sports gambling industry for years. More recently, we have seen the emergence of "adjusted statistics", a more sophisticated way to examine each play and each result (further explanation below). And while adjusted statistics have become commonplace for professional and recreational bettors alike, little research has been done to justify their use. In this paper the effectiveness of this data is tested on the most heavily wagered sport in the world – the National Football League (NFL). The results are studied with two central questions in mind: Does the market account …
State Level Earned Income Tax Credit’S Effects On Race And Age: An Effective Poverty Reduction Policy, Anthony J. Barone
State Level Earned Income Tax Credit’S Effects On Race And Age: An Effective Poverty Reduction Policy, Anthony J. Barone
CMC Senior Theses
In this paper, I analyze the effectiveness of state level Earned Income Tax Credit programs on improving of poverty levels. I conducted this analysis for the years 1991 through 2011 using a panel data model with fixed effects. The main independent variables of interest were the state and federal EITC rates, minimum wage, gross state product, population, and unemployment all by state. I determined increases to the state EITC rates provided only a slight decrease to both the overall white below-poverty population and the corresponding white childhood population under 18, while both the overall and the under-18 black population for …
Applying Localized Realized Volatility Modeling To Futures Indices, Luella Fu
Applying Localized Realized Volatility Modeling To Futures Indices, Luella Fu
CMC Senior Theses
This thesis extends the application of the localized realized volatility model created by Ying Chen, Wolfgang Karl Härdle, and Uta Pigorsch to other futures markets, particularly the CAC 40 and the NI 225. The research attempted to replicate results though ultimately, those results were invalidated by procedural difficulties.