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2024 September - Tennessee Monthly Climate Report, Tennessee Climate Office, East Tennessee State University

Tennessee Climate Office Monthly Reports

Hi All,

September 2024 is a month we won't be forgetting any time soon. We started off continuing a very dry pattern with Extreme Drought (D3) expanding in Middle Tennessee until receiving some relief from Hurricane Francine. Extreme Drought peaked for this area in the September 10th release of the US Drought Monitor (USDM), while expansion of D3 continued through the September 24th release of the USDM. September 24th was also when a tornado formed in Hancock County - the first September tornado on record in East Tennessee. The biggest story of the month was Hurricane Helene and its many …

Numerical Techniques For Improving Simulations Of Tropical Cyclones, Yassine Tissaoui

Dissertations

The increasing frequency and intensity of tropical cyclones (TCs) due to climate change pose significant challenges for forecasting and mitigating their impacts. Despite advancements, accurately predicting TC rapid intensification (RI) remains a challenge. Large eddy simulation (LES) allows for explicitly resolving the large eddies involved in TC turbulence, thus providing an avenue for studying the mechanisms behind their intensification and RI. LES of a full tropical cyclone is very computationally expensive and its accuracy will depend on both explicit and implicit dissipation within an atmospheric model. This dissertation presents two novel numerical methodologies with the potential to improve the efficiency …

Weather Risks, Crop Losses, And Risk Proneness: An Examination Of Evolving Risk Preferences Of Rice Farmers In Bangladesh, W. Parker Wheatley, Taznoore Khanam, Valerien O. Pede, Takashi Yamano

Economics Faculty Publications

Changing climate poses significant challenges for smallholder rice farmers. Weather-related deviations from longer-term patterns and crop losses due to abiotic hazards can affect farmer risk preferences and drive adaptive responses. In addition, farmers’ proneness to and past experiences with crop risks such as drought, submergence, and excess soil salinity can impact their baseline risk preferences and their response to changing risks. Using data for Bangladesh from two waves of the Rice Monitoring Survey, climate-related data (precipitation and temperature), farmer reports of crop losses, and measures of proneness to abiotic risks, this article estimates how weather deviations from longer-term trends, crop …

Revealing The Impact Of Spatial Bias In Survey Design For Habitat Mapping: A Tale Of Two Sampling Designs, Stanley Mastrantonis, Tim J. Langlois, Ben Radford, Claude Spencer, Simon De Lestang, Sharyn Hickey

Fisheries Research Articles

Submerged aquatic vegetation, referring to benthic macroalgae and plants that obligately grow underwater, are critical components of marine ecosystems and are frequently found to provide preferential recruitment habitats. The mapping and monitoring of aquatic vegetation through remote sensing and machine learning is becoming an important aspect of managing coastal environments at scale. Accurate mapping and monitoring require robust sampling and occurrence data to assess predictive error and quantify submerged vegetation extents. The form of ground truthing survey design (preferential, random, grid-based or spatially balanced) could significantly influence predictive model outcomes and the overall accuracy of mapping and monitoring. Here, we …

Coastal Sedimentary Records Of Extreme Events And Human Activity: Examples From Hurricanes And Microplastics, Nicholas T. Culligan

LSU Doctoral Dissertations

Coastal regions are uniquely vulnerable to a myriad of natural and anthropogenically caused stresses such as hurricane strikes and chronic microplastic pollution. Both hurricanes and microplastics have major negative effects on global coastlines and are forecast to become more damaging in the future. However, current model trends are based on limited modern data and may not provide an accurate or comprehensive view of the future. Therefore, this dissertation investigates coastal stratigraphic records to determine long-term past trends of these presses and pulses so that researchers, stakeholders, and policy makers can use them to enact strategies to mitigate damages from worsening …

2024 August 22 - Tennessee Weekly Drought Summary, Tennessee Climate Office, East Tennessee State University

Tennessee Climate Office Weekly Drought Summaries

No abstract provided.

Open-Loop Wavefront Sensing In The Presence Of Speckle And Weak Scintillation, Derek J. Burrell, Mark F. Spencer, Ronald G. Driggers

Faculty Publications

In this paper, we show that speckle averaging helps to reduce the measurement error associated with a Shack–Hartmann wavefront sensor (SHWFS); however, this reduction is rendered ineffective with increasing beacon anisoplanatism. We do so operating in a weak-scintillation regime, where the SHWFS offers robust performance, and using in-plane translation of the illuminated rough surface to accomplish frame-to-frame speckle diversity. Understanding these trade-space limitations is critical when performing wavefront sensing with noncooperative, extended-source beacons.

Climate Change And Its Impact On Health: A Global Collaborative Learning Model, Harriet Okatch, Patricia Remshifski, Anita Fennessey, Haley Campbell, Sivia Barnoy, Jason Friedman, Stephen Kern, Rosemary Frasso, Cecilia Sorensen, Tami Bar-Shalita, Louis Hunter

College of Population Health Faculty Papers

To address the health effects of climate change, leaders in healthcare have called for action to integrate climate adaptation and mitigation into training programs for health professionals. However, current educators may not possess sufficient climate literacy and the expertise to effectively include such content in their respective healthcare curricula. We, an international and interprofessional partnership, collaborated with experts to develop and deploy curriculum to increase health educators' and graduate health profession students' knowledge and competencies on climate change. In a tri-step process, the first phase included recruiting interested faculty members from two institutions and varying health professions. In phase two, …

2024 August 15 - Tennessee Weekly Drought Summary, Tennessee Climate Office, East Tennessee State University

Tennessee Climate Office Weekly Drought Summaries

No abstract provided.

Groundwater Modeling Of The Ogallala Aquifer: Use Of Machine Learning For Model Parameterization And Sustainability Assessment, Tewodros Aboret Tilahun

Dissertations and Doctoral Documents, University of Nebraska-Lincoln, 2023–

Addressing groundwater depletion problems in heterogeneous aquifer systems is a challenge. The heterogeneous Ogallala Aquifer, a critical source of groundwater in the central United States, has undergone decades of decline in water levels due to pumping. This project aims to build a robust groundwater model to evaluate optimal scenarios for sustainable use of the groundwater resource within a section of the Ogallala aquifer located in the Middle Republican Natural Resources District (MRNRD). This study follows a comprehensive approach involving parameterization, construction, and optimization. The model is parametrized using hydraulic conductivity and recharge values obtained from a random forest-based machine learning …

Analyzing Live And Dead Fuel Moisture In California: Insights For Wildfire Management Decisions, Jack R. Drucker

Master's Theses

This study investigates trends in fuel moisture content (FMC) across California from 2000 to 2021. It utilizes two distinct sources of FMC data: the Fuel Moisture Repository, which integrates live fuel moisture content (LFMC) observations, and a novel dead fuel moisture content (DFMC) reanalysis product which provides spatial fuel moisture maps by integrating dead fuel moisture observations and a fuel moisture model driven by gridded weather data. The analysis uncovered a general downtrend in FMC across California, with the exception of LFMC in the Northernmost regions and coarse DFMC. Despite the differing long-term FMC trends, all the regions experienced a …

Remote Sensing With Airborne Infrared Thermography For Assessment Of Landscape Scale Wildfire Spread And Intensity, Christopher C. Giesige

Master's Theses

Wildland fire is one of the most complex environmental physical processes to quantify. The way in which we observe and measure wildland fire is critical in understanding how these processes drive fire dynamics. Fire behavior can be observed in several ways including the use of ground sensors and remote sensing packages aboard aircraft and satellites. Airborne sensors provide high spatial resolution and can provide high temporal resolution. Infrared thermography takes advantage of radiant heat transfer allowing for the study of fire characteristics such as fire spread and intensity. Aircraft observations utilizing infrared cameras have been a well-established method of fire …

Returning Power To The Mashpee Wampanoag Tribe: Energy Policy And Tribal Autonomy, Nicolas Land-Kazlauskas

Capstone Collection

This policy brief addresses tribal autonomy, energy policy, and the resources of the Mashpee Wampanoag Tribe in Massachusetts. Tribal sovereignty has been a difficult and often painful area of discussion for many tribal communities. For generations, tribes have had to carefully navigate their interactions with colonial forces and the residues of colonialist legacies, especially tied to resource wealth and decision-making. Even with the best of efforts by the tribe, their actions often have not impacted the basic legal or economic situations on-the-ground. Their on-going relationships with states and companies continue to undermine tribal autonomy and sovereignty oftentimes simply because they …

2024 August 8 - Tennessee Weekly Drought Summary, Tennessee Climate Office, East Tennessee State University

Tennessee Climate Office Weekly Drought Summaries

No abstract provided.

Projected Climate Change Impacts On The Number Of Dry And Very Heavy Precipitation Days By Century’S End: A Case Study Of Iran’S Metropolises, Rasoul Asfari, Mohammad Nazari-Sharabian, Ali Hosseini, Moses Karakouzian

Civil and Environmental Engineering and Construction Faculty Research

This study explores the impacts of climate change on the number of dry days and very heavy precipitation days within Iran’s metropolises. Focusing on Tehran, Mashhad, Isfahan, Karaj, Shiraz, and Tabriz, the research utilizes the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) Global Circulation Models (GCMs) to predict future precipitation conditions under various Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) from 2025 to 2100. The study aims to provide a comprehensive understanding of how climate change will affect precipitation patterns in these major cities. Findings indicate that the SSP126 scenario typically results in the highest number of dry days, suggesting that …

Evaluating Stormwater Erosion Prevention And Sediment Control Best Management Practices Using High-Resolution Rainfall Monitoring And Field-Based Assessment Tools, Brittany Pekara

Masters Theses & Specialist Projects

Advancing stormwater management methods and technology is critical as runoff from impermeable surfaces increases with urbanization and development. Stormwater runoff is highly susceptible to contamination from non-point source pollution and causing flood impacts following rain events, which varies spatially and temporally in an urban landscape. To counteract the impacts of contamination and drainage issues, Best Management Practices (BMPs) are implemented to reduce the effects of stormwater runoff; however, the unpredictable nature of storm events can make methods for effectively monitoring impacts difficult in trying to capture first flush inputs, flood threats, and sedimentation sources. This research utilizes a highresolution rainfall …

Comprehensive Climate Vulnerability Assessment Of A Regional Karst Landscape For Hazard Mitigation Planning, Kara Brunot

Masters Theses & Specialist Projects

Climate change is the global phenomena affecting all sectors of society by creating conditions more conducive for the occurrence of extreme weather events. It is projected that the intensity and frequency of events will increase. Flooding, in particular, is projected to increase in frequency due to more intense precipitation events. Karst landscapes are especially vulnerable to climate change impacts because of their unique hydrology and geology. Karst flooding is most likely to occur from prolonged or intense rain events, which climate change will likely make more feasible. Areas are disproportionately affected by climate change due to population demographics and environmental …

Perceptions And Visual Awareness Of Urban Karst Flooding To Inform Preparedness Planning And Management Actions, Grace Hermann

Masters Theses & Specialist Projects

Awareness and perception of flooding can heavily affect how an individual or community prepares for flooding. Flood awareness can be affected by factors like past flood experience and demographics. Flood experience and demographics can affect flood awareness differently based on factors including the types and cause of flooding. Flooding in karst landscapes can vary from other types of flooding and neither perception nor awareness of karst flooding has been directly studied before. This study explored both expert and non-expert flood awareness and perception and flood policies in a karst landscape through interviews with experts, surveys, and cognitive mapping activities. The …

Landuse And Microplastic Transport In Karst Groundwater Of South-Central Kentucky, Katie Norman

Masters Theses & Specialist Projects

Groundwater in karst areas is susceptible to contamination from various sources of pollution. Microplastics are a prevalent source of pollution entering groundwater. This study examines karst groundwater in three areas of investigation. One point of interest is an area that is impacted by urban activities, the Lost River Groundwater Basin, which includes water drainage from the City of Bowling Green, Kentucky. Another study location is Great Onyx (GO) Spring, which is a part of the Great Onyx Groundwater Basin located in Mammoth Cave National Park, Kentucky, and that is relatively unimpacted by urban activities. The third point of interest is …

How Can Event Attribution Science Underpin Financial Decisions On Loss And Damage?, Dim Coumou, Paola A. Arias, Ana Bastos, Charlotte Kendra Z. Gotangco Gonzales, Gabriele C. Hegerl, Pandora Hope, Christopher Jack, Friederike Otto, Fahad Saeed, Olivia Serdeczny, Theodore G. Shepherd, Robert Vautard

Environmental Science Faculty Publications

With climate extremes hitting nations across the globe, disproportionately burdening vulnerable developing countries, the prompt operation of the Loss and Damage fund is of paramount importance. As decisions on resource disbursement at the international level, and investment strategies at the national level, loom, the climate science community’s role in providing fair and effective evidence is crucial. Attribution science can provide useful information for decision makers, but both ethical implications and deep uncertainty cannot be ignored. Considering these aspects, we articulate a vision that integrates established attribution methods and multiple lines of evidence within a coherent logical framework.

Land-Use Change As A Major Driver For Mid-20th-Century Flood Intensity Reduction In The Southeastern Us, Zhixiong Shen, Nicholas Conway, Shaowu Bao, Samuel Muñoz, Andreas Lang

Marine Science

Land-use changes affect hydrologic processes, but their impact on flooding remains obscure amid increasingly heavy precipitation. Instrumental records are short relative to land-use change history and inadequate for flood attribution studies. Here we integrate a high-resolution paleodischarge record spanning the past ∼200 years from the largest basin in the Southeastern United States with instrumental data and hydrological modeling. We find that the 100 yr flood magnitude for large regional rivers exhibits 50%–75% reductions in the mid-20th century. We attribute at least 50% of the reductions to a regional shift from widespread agricultural land to conservation and reforestation and the rest …

2024 August - Tennessee Monthly Climate Report, Tennessee Climate Office, East Tennessee State University

Tennessee Climate Office Monthly Reports

No abstract provided.

2024 August 1 - Tennessee Weekly Drought Summary, Tennessee Climate Office, East Tennessee State University

Tennessee Climate Office Weekly Drought Summaries

No abstract provided.

Variability In Nutrient Concentrations Across Regions Of The Winyah Bay River Plume, Anne Mackenzie Gossman

Electronic Theses and Dissertations

River plumes are one of the few large-scale features responsible for transporting particulates and terrigenous materials to coastal oceans. Macro-nutrients, such as dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN) and phosphorus (PO43-), are basic requirements for marine food webs. Due to the plumes’ ability to transport large quantities of these constituents, these systems contribute heavily to coastal productivity. This study focuses on the dynamics of the Winyah Bay river plume located in Georgetown, South Carolina. River plumes, including the Winyah Bay plume, are dynamic systems whose structures are comprised of a multitude of regions and features including the source, lift off, near-field, mid-field, …

Onset Of Antarctic Glaciation At The Eocene-Oligocene Transition In The Weddell Sea And Its Impact On Ocean Circulation, Victoria Hojnacki

Theses, Dissertations and Culminating Projects

The Eocene – Oligocene Transition (EOT) (34 Ma) represents a greenhouse to icehouse climate transition that is marked by the appearance of permanent ice sheets in Antarctica. Studying this period of climate change allows us to understand how different Earth systems reacted under changing atmospheric CO₂ conditions. Though the timing of the development of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet is well supported, the development of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet is still up for debate. Ocean Drilling Program Site 696 is the only paleoarchive of the EOT in the Weddell Sea region and offers an opportunity to better constrain the …

Understanding The Variability Of Circulation And Water Quality At Experimental Oyster Leases In The Mississippi Sound Using A High-Resolution Nested Modeling Approach, Shihab Hossain Saran

Master's Theses

Four 50-acre experimental oyster leases; two near Saint Louis Bay (StLB) and two near Pascagoula Bay (PB) were recommended to provide science-based guidance for oyster reef restoration efforts in response to continued limited productivity of oysters in the Mississippi Sound (MSS). Two-way nested simulations using ROMS within COAWST modeling framework have been run with improved forcings to analyze circulation, salinity and temperature variability within and around the lease areas under the extreme freshwater inflow from Bonnet Carré Spillway (BCS) openings and local rivers in 2019. High-resolution atmospheric forcing data is crucial because diurnal sea-land breeze affects salinity variability by increasing …

Projected Range Shift Of The Atlantic Surfclam, Spisula Solidissima, And The Ocean Quahog, Arctica Islandica, Under Climate-Induced Benthic Warming: Forecasting Fishery Influence In The Mid-Atlantic Bight Throughout The 21st Century, Molly Mae Spencer

Master's Theses

The Atlantic surfclam, Spisula solidissima, and ocean quahog, Arctica islandica, are biomass dominant bivalve species on the eastern North American continental shelf, both supporting lucrative commercial fisheries in the Mid-Atlantic with a combined value of $53.6 million in ex-vessel revenue per year. Rapid climate change is expected to modify the geographic range of these bivalve populations across the Mid-Atlantic Bight (MAB), suggesting transformative consequences for the surfclam fishery. This study forecasted future distributions of the two species from years 2016 – 2095, based on projected bottom water temperatures and a temperature-dependent population dynamics model, to project subsequent fishery-based indicators …

Applications Of Artificial Intelligence On Drought Impact Monitoring And Assessment, Beichen Zhang

Dissertations and Doctoral Documents, University of Nebraska-Lincoln, 2023–

Drought, a prevalent and consequential natural disaster, poses widespread, indirect challenges across environmental and societal dimensions. Despite considerable focus on monitoring meteorological and hydrological drought and studying their characteristics, there is a gap in assessing its multifaceted impacts, especially on societal sectors. The dissertation comprises three research essays utilizing artificial intelligence to quantitatively study multi-dimensional drought impacts. The first essay leveraged deep learning and natural language processing to predict multi-dimensional drought impacts from textual datasets, including social media, news media, and citizen scientist reports. The findings demonstrate superior performance over traditional methods and unveil the spatial and temporal heterogeneity of …

Tidal Creeks As Conduits Of Land-Derived Nutrients To The Coastal Ocean, Christianna R. Morton

Electronic Theses and Dissertations

A common feature of the coastline of South Carolina are small, low relief, tidal creek systems. Due to their tidally dominated nature, these systems can act as conduits of land-based nutrients to the coastal ocean. As development along the coastline increases, the volume of nutrients entering tidal creeks will likely exhibit an associated increase. The focus of this research is an investigation of the input of nutrients into White Point Swash, a tidal creek located in northern South Carolina, via point and nonpoint sources, the behavior of nutrients once they enter this system, and the potential removal of nutrients by …

Further Developing Drought Early Warning Information Systems Using Mixed-Methods And Multiple Streams Of Data, Caily Claire Schwartz

Dissertations and Doctoral Documents, University of Nebraska-Lincoln, 2023–

Drought is a complex phenomenon with varying degrees of impacts and monitoring methods. No drought is alike, creating a challenge for both water managers and communities. No area is immune to a drought. Due to the cyclical nature of drought events, clear information to those impacted is necessary to reduce risk and move towards proactive responses, as opposed to reactive responses. To better provide communication and mitigation tools, Drought Early Warning Information Systems (DEWIS) have been developed in various regions and contexts. To improve early warning, an understanding of the end user’s perceptions of risk, and the applicability of data …