Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology Commons^™

Understanding And Predicting Precipitation Characteristics In The United States Through Machine Learning, Numerical Modeling And Measurements, Cody Luther Ratterman

All Graduate Theses and Dissertations, Fall 2023 to Present

Precipitation is one of the most important yet uncertain variables in the climate system. It varies dramatically in terms of timing, accumulation, rate, and phase, depending on location, season, circulation patterns, and atmospheric conditions. Precipitation forecasts, especially snowfall, are essential to supporting drought mitigation and water management in the Intermountain West. Because rainfall and snowfall lead to opposite effects on snowpack, accurately partitioning rain and snow is important to estimate snowpack levels, winter recreation, mountain ecosystems and runoff. The research findings in this dissertation have advanced the understanding and prediction of precipitation and snowpack in the U.S. by addressing the …

Statistical Evaluation Of A New Orleans Historic Rainfall Dataset (1840–1893), Arielle C. Filostrat

LSU Master's Theses

This study evaluates the climatic credibility of a newly identified historical rainfall dataset for New Orleans, Louisiana, spanning 1840–1893. The New Orleans Historical Dataset (NOHD) is compared to a modern observational record from the Audubon rain gauge (1893–2024) to determine whether nineteenth-century rainfall observations are consistent with known precipitation behavior in the region. Establishing the reliability of early records is critical for extending climatological baselines and improving understanding of long-term rainfall variability.

Historical rainfall observations were first evaluated through archival review using the New Orleans Medical and Surgical Journal and other nineteenth-century meteorological records to verify notable rainfall events. Daily …

Extreme Precipitation Events And Population Exposure: Site Recommendations For The Future Tennessee Mesonet, Victoria G. Redlund

Electronic Theses and Dissertations

This study examines frequency of and population exposure to extreme rainfall events in Tennessee to guide the placement of future mesonet weather stations. Using 1991-2021 daily nClimGrid precipitation records, extreme events were defined as events of rainfall ≥50 mm. These events were collated on an annual scale and normalized alongside square-root-scaled population densities derived from Landscan to develop extreme rainfall vulnerability maps. Results highlight where extreme rainfall is most frequent relative to population densities in each county. The findings were compared with models of mesonet suitability and feasibility to determine how meteorological needs correlate with siting needs such as land …

Recent Climatology And Changes In Precipitating Storm Characteristics Over Conus, Tyler Landsparger

Electronic Theses & Dissertations (2024 - present)

As anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions continue to warm the global climate system, improving our understanding of how precipitating storms are responding in the real world has become increasingly important.  This study leverages 22 years of high-resolution hourly precipitation data from the NCEP Stage IV dataset to produce a seasonal climatology and long-term trend analysis of precipitating storm frequency, duration, area, and intensity across the Contiguous United States (CONUS) from March 2002 through February 2024.  Storms were identified and tracked using an object-tracking algorithm and their characteristics were computed for each season, from which 22-year climatology and trends were derived.  The …

The Predictability And Verification Of Precipitation From Landfalling Tropical Cyclones Using An Object-Based Framework, Melissa Piper

Electronic Theses & Dissertations (2024 - present)

Precipitation from landfalling tropical cyclones (TCs) poses a significant risk to life and property in both coastal and inland communities. Early warning systems can help mitigate the impacts of TC-induced flooding; however, this requires accurate quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPFs). Forecasting precipitation from landfalling TCs is a challenge, as the intensity, duration, and location of precipitation can be dependent on numerous storm-related and environmental factors. Previous studies have attempted to identify and correct NWP model deficiencies and reduce forecast uncertainty by applying traditional and advanced verification metrics to TC QPF. However, these studies have mostly used gridpoint verification metrics, limited samples …

Analysis Of The Thermodynamic Variables Associated With Hawaiian Extreme Precipitation Using The Fraction Of Attributable Risk (Far), Matthew J. Sinnenberg

Electronic Theses & Dissertations (2024 - present)

The Hawaiian Islands experience extreme maxima in precipitation that vary spatially, by season, and in response to different teleconnection patterns. Due to the islands’ unique geography, they are not well-resolved by global climate models, necessitating a focused assessment to identify  climatological trends. In this study, a probability-based analysis was conducted on regionally averaged thermodynamic variables relevant to the formation of extreme events. The primary objective was to evaluate whether changes in the occurrence of extreme conditions have occurred and to understand how the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) influences these occurrence rates.

Hourly data from ERA5 spanning 1980-2019 were resampled to …

Assessing Meteorological Impacts On Hydrological Switches In The Conus, Surendra Maharjan, Wenzhao Li, Sujan Shrestha, Hesham El-Askary

Mathematics, Physics, and Computer Science Faculty Articles and Research

Hydrological switches, defined as rapid transitions between extreme meteorological events such as droughts and floods, are becoming increasingly frequent across the contiguous United States (CONUS) due to climate variability. This study analyzes the spatial and temporal patterns of these hydrological switches and their correlation with large-scale meteorological indices, such as the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI). Streamflow data from the US Geological Survey (USGS) is analyzed to investigate the impact of meteorological drivers on hydrological variability. Results indicate that regions dependent on snowmelt exhibit delayed hydrological responses to climatic conditions, while areas in the Eastern …

Investigating The Role Of Aerosols In Extreme Precipitation Events Along The Gulf Coast Of The U.S.A., Wenjia Cao

LSU Doctoral Dissertations

Atmospheric aerosols have been found to influence tropical cyclone (TC) and flood event development. In this study, the Weather Research and Forecasting model is applied to investigate specific microphysical impacts and aerosol sensitivity to heavy precipitation and TC events in the U.S. Gulf Coastal area. The Thompson aerosol-aware scheme with regular and adjusted aerosol concentration scenarios is used to quantify precipitation, wind field, horizontal/vertical structures, and track variations, by aerosol mixing ratio. In general, results for the three storms analyzed (the 2016 Baton Rouge, Louisiana, flood event (Chapter 2); Hurricane Harvey in 2017 (Chapter 3); and an idealized storm event …

Do Dung Beetles Sink Or Swim: Exploring Dung Beetle Response To Precipitation, Lauren T. Cheshire

Graduate Theses, Dissertations, and Problem Reports (ETD)

Global climate change constitutes a major threat to biodiversity and ecosystem services of many taxa. The Mid-Atlantic region of the US is expecting to see an increase in extreme precipitation events and flooding. Dung beetles (Scarabaeinae) can tunnel below the soil surface allowing for water to dissipate into the soil rather than sit on the surface and add to flooding conditions. They also can decrease methane emission by burying dung and reduce outbreaks of pests that prefer the moist environment of dung. They contribute roughly $380 million in ecosystem services annually in the United States, yet their services may be …

Numerical Techniques For Improving Simulations Of Tropical Cyclones, Yassine Tissaoui

Dissertations

The increasing frequency and intensity of tropical cyclones (TCs) due to climate change pose significant challenges for forecasting and mitigating their impacts. Despite advancements, accurately predicting TC rapid intensification (RI) remains a challenge. Large eddy simulation (LES) allows for explicitly resolving the large eddies involved in TC turbulence, thus providing an avenue for studying the mechanisms behind their intensification and RI. LES of a full tropical cyclone is very computationally expensive and its accuracy will depend on both explicit and implicit dissipation within an atmospheric model. This dissertation presents two novel numerical methodologies with the potential to improve the efficiency …

Ocean Temperatures Do Not Account For A Record-Setting Winter In The U.S. West, Matthew D. Laplante, Liping Deng, Luthiene Dalanhese, Shih-Yu Wang

Journalism and Communication Faculty Publications

The record-setting winter of 2022–2023 came as an answer to both figurative and literal prayers for political leaders, policy makers, and water managers reliant on snowpacks in the Upper Colorado River Basin, a vital source of water for tens of millions of people across the Western United States. But this “drought-busting” winter was not well-predicted, in part because while interannual patterns of tropical ocean temperatures have a well-known relationship to precipitation patterns across much of the American West, the Upper Colorado is part of a liminal region where these connections tend to be comparatively weak. Using historical sea surface temperature …

Synoptic Drivers Of Extreme Precipitation In The Upper Yuba Watershed Of California, Emma Nichole Russell

Dissertations and Theses

The United States state of California is vulnerable to both droughts and extreme precipitation events due to the timing and processes of precipitation in the region. California's annual precipitation is dependent on a few strong storms and in addition to its Mediterranean climate, leads to great variability in precipitation both within and across years. While efforts to reduce the impacts of extreme precipitation events have been implemented, forecasting for these events remains a challenge in regions with complex terrain and dynamic meteorological drivers. In order to improve forecasting and preparedness for such events, it is important to understand the range …

Understanding The Zonal Variability In Cmip6 Projections Of Sahelian Precipitation, Emmanuel Ogwuche Audu

Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences: Dissertations, Theses, and Student Research

The uncertainty in model projections of future precipitation across the Sahel has persisted across many generations of Earth System Models (ESMs), with some models predicting drying and others moistening across this region. These discrepancies in future projections pose a challenge for stakeholders and decision makers. Many projections of Sahel precipitation found in the ESMs participating in the sixth phase of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) show a zonal dipole in precipitation trend, with moistening across the Central and Eastern Sahel and drying projected for the Western Sahel. Previous studies have connected precipitation variability across the Sahel to changes in various …

A Climatology Of North American Monsoon Precipitation Over Arizona From Mrms Data, Greta Graeler, Mark Sinclair, Curtis N. James

Publications

The North American Monsoon (NAM) is a seasonal shift in pressure and wind which accounts for over half of the southwest’s annual precipitation. North-central Arizona has variable terrain which influences the location and intensity of convective storms. Severe weather such as strong winds, lightning, and hail can cause loss of life, property, and fires. High spatial and temporal resolution data along with reanalysis data is used to identify convective cells and their motion for the 2015 to 2022 NAM seasons. The heaviest precipitation in north-central Arizona is found over the Bradshaw Mountains and is most active in July and August. …

Seasonal Variability And Predictability Of Monsoon Precipitation In Southern Africa, Matthew F. Horan, Fred Kucharski, Moetasim Ashfaq

Faculty Publications

Rainfed agriculture is the mainstay of economies across Southern Africa (SA), where most precipitation is received during the austral summer monsoon. This study aims to further our understanding of monsoon precipitation predictability over SA. We use three natural climate forcings, El Niño–Southern Oscillation, Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), and the Indian Ocean Precipitation Dipole (IOPD)—the dominant precipitation variability mode—to construct an empirical model that exhibits significant skill over SA during monsoon in explaining precipitation variability and in forecasting it with a five-month lead. While most explained precipitation variance (50%–75%) comes from contemporaneous IOD and IOPD, preconditioning all three forcings is key …

Evaluating Future Water Availability In Texas Through The Lens Of A Data-Driven Approach Leveraged With Cmip6 General Circulation Models, Wenzhao Li, Dongfeng Li, Hesham El-Askary, Joshua B. Fisher, Zheng N. Fang

Mathematics, Physics, and Computer Science Faculty Articles and Research

Climate change is escalating the frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation events, significantly influencing the spatial and temporal distributions of water resources. This is particularly evident in Texas, a rapidly growing state with a pronounced west-east gradient in water supply. This study utilizes Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) data and data-driven methodology to improve projections of Texas's future water resources, focusing on actual evapotranspiration (AET) and water availability through enhanced Multi-Model Ensembles. The results reveal that the data-driven model significantly outperforms the CMIP5 and CMIP6 models across all skill metrics, underscoring the potential of data-driven methodologies in advancing …

A Proxy System Modeling Approach To Combining Tree-Ring And Sediment-Based Paleotempestological Records, Elizabeth J. Wallace, Sylvia Dee, Joshua Bregy, Kerry A. Emanuel

OES Faculty Publications

The short and biased observational record of tropical cyclones (TCs) limits scientific understanding of how these destructive storms respond to climate forcing. Paleohurricane records use natural archives (tree rings, coarse-grained sediment) to reconstruct TC properties (frequency and intensity of rainfall, wind) over the past few hundreds to thousands of years. However, different sensitivities and sampling biases in the various paleohurricane proxies restrict our ability to compile these records into regional or basin-scale TC estimates. Here we test how well pseudo tree-ring records of paleohurricanes capture TC rainfall and occurrence. Using a large set of statistically downscaled storms forced with the …

Using Phenology To Unravel Differential Soil Water Use And Productivity In A Semiarid Savanna, Blake Steiner, Russell L. Scott, Jia Hu, Natasha Mcbean, Andrew Richardson, David J. P. Moore

University Administration Publications

Savannas are water-limited ecosystems characterized by two dominant plant types: trees and an understory primarily made up grass. Different phenology and root structures of these plant types complicate how savanna primary productivity responds to changes in water availability. We tested the hypothesis that productivity in savannas is controlled by the temporal and vertical distribution of soil water content (SWC) and differences in growing season length of understory and tree plant functional types. To quantify the relationship between tree, understory, and savanna-wide phenology and productivity, we used PhenoCam and satellite observations surrounding an eddy covariance tower at a semiarid savanna site …

Deconstructing The Mangrove Carbon Cycle: Gains, Transformation, And Losses, M. F. Adame, N. Cormier, P. Taillardat, N. Iram, A. Rovai, T. M. Sloey, E. S. Yando, J. F. Blanco-Libreros, M. Arnaud, T. Jennerjahn, C. E. Lovelock, D. Friess, G. M. S. Reithmaier, C. A. Buelow, S. M. Muhammad-Nor, R. R. Twilley, R. A. Ribeiro

Biological Sciences Faculty Publications

Mangroves are one of the most carbon-dense forests on the Earth and have been highlighted as key ecosystems for climate change mitigation and adaptation. Hundreds of studies have investigated how mangroves fix, transform, store, and export carbon. Here, we review and synthesize the previously known and emerging carbon pathways in mangroves, including gains (woody biomass accumulation, deadwood accumulation, soil carbon sequestration, root and litterfall production), transformations (food web transfer through herbivory, decomposition), and losses (respiration as CO₂ and CH₄, litterfall export, particulate and dissolved carbon export). We then review the technologies available to measure carbon fluxes in …

Quantifying Seasonal And Annual Precipitation Variability On San Salvador Island, Bahamas Using Surface Observations And Satellite Estimates., John Bryson Wells

Theses and Dissertations

San Salvador Island is a small Bahamian island located in the subtropics just north of the Tropic of Cancer. Due to its subtropical location, the island is influenced by both mid-latitude and tropical weather patterns. These weather patterns vary in scale from localized convective uplift to synoptic-scale systems. This study compares satellite-derived estimates of precipitation and rain gauge observations from June 2019 through September 2021 to evaluate the relationship between the two datasets. This study then uses the satellite-derived estimates of precipitation over a 20-year period to quantify annual and seasonal variability in precipitation on San Salvador. Corroborating past research, …

Atmospheric Impacts From The 2010 Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill, Charles Philip Johnson

LSU Master's Theses

Although the ecological devastations induced by an oil spill are well studied, the hydrometeorological impacts from a long-term slick have gone unnoticed. The ocean-surface alterations stemming from the lasting oil footprint increase solar radiation absorption which in turn alters the surface pressure and moisture gradients and wind speeds thereby influencing precipitation surrounding the oil spill. Revealing the potential impacts from these could better aid in the safety of crews cleaning spills and provide a better understanding of how humans alter the landscape. This thesis examines the changes in local hydrometeorology brought on by the 2010 summer Deepwater Horizon (DWH) oil …

Hydroclimate Effects On Great Salt Lake Decline Since 1980, Siiri Joy Bigalke

All Graduate Plan B and other Reports, Spring 1920 to Spring 2023

As a terminal basin lake, the Great Salt Lake (GSL) is known to act as a barometer for low frequency climate variability for the Western United States. As thus, there are naturally occurring large changes to GSL elevation levels that vary on time scales from years to decades. However, amongst these naturally occurring interannual changes there has been a significant declining trend in the elevation levels since a string of anomalous pluvial years in the early 1980s. In the summer of 2022, the Great Salt Lake reached its lowest levels in recorded history, which coincided with a two-decades long regional …

A Stable Isotopic Profile Of Atmospheric River Precipitation Impacting Northern California, Erika Clarise Ornouski

LSU Master's Theses

Atmospheric river (AR) storms are an integral part of California’s hydrologic cycle, providing 30–50% of the state’s annual precipitation. However, “too much of a good thing” can swell

rivers beyond capacity leading to widespread flooding, erosion, and environmental damage. Northern California’s steep topography coupled with its seasonal Sierra Nevada snowpack puts this region at risk for floods and extreme weather hazards that can be triggered by strong ARs. Identifying AR contributions in the water cycle is crucial for informing water resource and emergency management decisions Stable isotope analysis provides a means to understand the movement of precipitation based on fractionation …

Storm In A Glass Lesson Plan, Admin Stem For Success

STEM for Success Showcase

Lesson Plan and Video Demonstration for the "Storm in a Glass" Activity, which teaches students about precipitation.

Timing And Magnitude Of Drought Impacts On Carbon Uptake Across A Grassland Biome, Andrew Felton, Gregory R. Goldsmith

Biology, Chemistry, and Environmental Sciences Faculty Articles and Research

Although drought is known to negatively impact grassland functioning, the timing and magnitude of these impacts within a growing season remains unresolved. Previous small-scale assessments indicate grasslands may only respond to drought during narrow periods within a year; however, large-scale assessments are now needed to uncover the general patterns and determinants of this timing. We combined remote sensing datasets of gross primary productivity and weather to assess the timing and magnitude of grassland responses to drought at 5 km² temporal resolution across two expansive ecoregions of the western US Great Plains biome: the C₄-dominated shortgrass steppe and …

Historical And Future Projections Of Supercell Precipitation Contributions To The Hydroclimate Of The United States, Aaron Zeeb

Graduate Research Theses & Dissertations

Rotating storms, or supercells, are frequent producers of significant tornadoes, hail, and nontornadic winds and an underappreciated genitor of extreme precipitation rates and flash floods. Little research has examined the precipitation contributions from supercells to the overall hydroclimate of the CONUS and, provided that these storms and their precipitation rates may shift in the future due to climate change, it is important to understand their characteristics from both historical and future perspectives. This research seeks to understand supercell precipitation characteristics across the CONUS using high-resolution, convection-permitting, dynamical-downscaled simulations for three, 15-year epochs. Epochs include a historical end-of-20th-century period (1990–2005) and …

The Impacts Of Atlantic And Pacific Sea Surface Temperature Variability On South American And Arctic Climate, Zhaoxiangrui He

Legacy Theses & Dissertations (2009 - 2024)

Atlantic and Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) variations mainly include El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on interannual timescales and Pacific multidecadal variability (PMV) and Atlantic multidecadal variability (AMV) on decadal-interdecadal timescales. Understanding their impacts on South American and Arctic climate is crucial for studying climate variability and helpful to constrain climate model projections for these regions on multidecadal timescales. Prior studies focused mainly on their impacts on global climate, but multidecadal impacts on South American climate are poorly understood due to the lack of long observational records. Furthermore, earlier research investigated primarily the isolated impacts on global climate from the Atlantic …

The Response Of Sea Ice And High-Salinity Shelf Water In The Ross Ice Shelf Polynya To Cyclonic Atmosphere Circulations, Xiaoqiao Wang, Zhaoru Zhang, Michael S. Dinniman, Petteri Uotila, Xichen Li, Meng Zhou

CCPO Publications

Coastal polynyas in the Ross Sea are important source regions of high-salinity shelf water (HSSW) – the precursor of Antarctic Bottom Water that supplies the lower limb of the thermohaline circulation. Here, the response of sea ice production and HSSW formation to synoptic-scale and mesoscale cyclones was investigated for the Ross Ice Shelf Polynya (RISP) using a coupled ocean–sea ice–ice shelf model targeted on the Ross Sea. When synoptic-scale cyclones prevailed over RISP, sea ice production (SIP) increased rapidly by 20 %–30 % over the entire RISP. During the passage of mesoscale cyclones, SIP increased by about 2 times over …

Precipitation Recorded In The Turkana Basin From 2005 To 2022., Acacia Leakey, Greg Henkes, Mae Saslaw, Dino Martins

Geosciences Research Data

This is a dataset of precipitation recorded at three sites in northern Kenya near Lake Turkana using standard rain gauges. The data was recorded at the Koobi Fora Research Station (3.947736, 36.186166) from March 2003 until 2006, at the Turkana Basin Institute’s Ileret facility (4.28510, 36.262158) from 2006 to 2022 and at the Turkana Basin Institute’s Turkwel facility (3.140825, 35.864599) from 2012 to 2022. The data was collected manually by TBI staff observing gradation lines on the collectors following rainfall events and recorded as a single total for each 24 hour period.

An Integrative Salt Marsh Conceptual Framework For Global Comparisons, Erik S. Yando, Scott F. Jones, W. Ryan James, Denise D. Colombano, Diana I. Montemayor, Stefanie Nolte, Jacqueline L. Raw, Shelby L. Ziegler, Luzhen Chen, Daniele Daffonchio, Marco Fusi, Kerrylee Rogers, Liudmila Sergienko

Biological Sciences Faculty Publications

Salt marshes occur globally across climatic and coastal settings, providing key linkages between terrestrial and marine ecosystems. However, salt marsh science lacks a unifying conceptual framework; consequently, historically well-studied locations have been used as normative benchmarks. To allow for more effective comparisons across the diversity of salt marshes, we developed an integrative salt marsh conceptual framework. We review ecosystem-relevant drivers from global to local spatial scales, integrate these multi-scale settings into a framework, and provide guidance on applying the framework using specific variables on 11 global examples. Overall, this framework allows for appropriate comparison of study sites by accounting for …