Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology Commons^™

Results And Implications For Space Weather Forecasting Of Periodic Mesoscale Solar Wind Structures Responsible For Radiation Belt Particle Loss, Grace Gratton

Discovery Day - Daytona Beach

Highly dynamic and structured mesoscale solar wind continually buffets Earth's magnetosphere, the moon, and Mars. These mesoscale structures cause several significant risks to spacecraft and astronauts, including driving radiation belt depletion and amplifying the hazards of CMEs and SIRs through upstream solar wind preconditioning. Characterizing the solar origins and solar wind properties of geoeffective mesoscale structures is essential for eventually forecasting their arrival and space weather impact at various satellites. In this interdisciplinary work, we leverage modeling and data analysis to characterize a series of events observed by the Balloon Array for Radiation-belt Relativistic Electron Losses (BARREL) instrument – in …

Project Minerva, Lena Wang, Gannon English, Ethan Yemm, Gabrielle Guirguis, Jose Murphy

Discovery Day - Daytona Beach

Project Minerva is a multidisciplinary engineering initiative at Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University (ERAU) dedicated to the design, integration, and deployment of high-altitude balloon (HAB) systems for stratospheric research and aerospace hardware validation. The project challenges student researchers to engineer flight-ready payloads capable of maintaining structural and electronic integrity in extreme temperatures and low-pressure environments in the stratosphere. Typically utilizing 600g latex balloons filled with helium, Project Minerva missions aim to achieve altitudes exceeding 22,000 meters to facilitate vertical atmospheric profiling of variables such as CO₂ concentration, humidity, temperature, and pressure. Beyond its technical objectives, the project serves as a professional training …

The Impact Of Environmental Contributing Factors In Spatial Disorientation And Non-Spatial Disorientation Related General Aviation Accidents, Victoria Cornaro, Molly Mersinger

Discovery Day - Daytona Beach

The Impact of Environmental Contributing Factors in Spatial Disorientation and Non-Spatial Disorientation Related General Aviation Accidents   Spatial disorientation (SD) is an inherent risk of flying and with a high risk of resulting in a fatal accident (Gibbs et al, 2011). SD related accidents occur when a pilot’s perception of the aircraft altitude, position, or relative motion conflict with reality (Benson, 1999). SD accidents are significantly more likely to result in a fatality than non-SD cases. The purpose of this study was to investigate the role of different contributing factors on SD and non-SD general aviation accidents. We used the NTSB …

Stability Through Chaos: Atmospheric Impact And Control Strategies For Laser Communication, Om Acharya, Mykailla Harper, Mark Vanberschot, Aldir Moreira

Discovery Day - Daytona Beach

Study of Atmospheric Effects and Mitigation Strategies in Free-Space Optical Communication Systems examines the fundamental limitations imposed by atmospheric disturbances on point-to-point laser communication links and evaluates methods to improve link reliability and performance. Free-space optical communication offers high data rates and reduced spectral congestion compared to radiofrequency systems, but its effectiveness is constrained by atmospheric effects including turbulence-induced scintillation, beam wander, absorption, and scattering. These phenomena introduce fluctuations in signal intensity and pointing errors, leading to degraded link stability and increased bit error rates. The work analyzes these atmospheric effects and investigates mitigation strategies that enhance optical link robustness …

Project G.L.E.N., Alexis Peshehonoff, Makaylei Huggins, Bernard Muich, William John, Nicholas Fazzolari, Kai Hong, Nicholas Krasznavolgyi, Caitlyn A. Gabrinowitz, Grace Forbes, Harris Meyer, Jakob Graudons, Georgii Dubrov, Aditya Bhattacharya, Augustine Balish, Zachary Ort, Stephen Syvertson, Sajid Berhane

Discovery Day - Daytona Beach

Project G.L.E.N., formally known as “Refining Enhanced Fujita Wind Estimates via Unmanned Collection of In-Situ Tornadic Data Measurements,” is an ongoing initiative aimed at advancing tornado research through the development and deployment of an unmanned tornado probe. Through the Gale Level Environmental Navigator (G.L.E.N.) probe, a remote-controlled unit equipped with specialized meteorological sensors and innovative design features, we aim to collect real-time, onsite data from within tornadoes. This approach allows for direct measurement of internal atmospheric conditions such as wind speeds, pressure fluctuations, temperature, humidity, and other storm dynamics while removing human risk from tornado interception, significantly enhancing the safety …

Real-Time Fused Sensor System For Early Onboard Detection Of Weather Phenomena, Sanjana Singh

Discovery Day - Daytona Beach

Weather-related hazards continue to be a major cause of operational interruptions and safety issues in the aviation sector. Atmospheric phenomena, including turbulence, microbursts, convective storms, and rapidly changing boundary-layer conditions, can arise quickly and often occur on spatial scales that are not adequately addressed by regional forecasting systems. These phenomena particularly endanger aircraft flying at low altitudes, such as general aviation planes, unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), and those during takeoff and landing Although meteorological forecasting systems and ground-based radar networks offer important regional insights, they may fail to detect localized atmospheric variations encountered along specific flight routes. Consequently, pilots and …

Investigating The Spatial Scales Of Ionospheric Irregularities Using Wavelet Analysis, Nash Mcleod

Discovery Day - Daytona Beach

Investigating the Spatial Scales of Ionospheric Irregularities Using Wavelet Analysis:   Ionospheric radio wave scintillation arises from plasma density irregularities in Earth’s ionosphere. Consequently, rapid fluctuations occur in the phase and amplitude of Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) signals and can impact communication and navigation systems. These irregularities span from a wide range of spatial and temporal scales and evolve dynamically under the influence of magnetosphere-ionosphere (MI) processes. We investigate phase and amplitude scintillation events using Continuous Wavelet Transform (CWT) to study the spatial evolution of ionospheric irregularities. These irregularities are thought to be formed via different plasma mechanisms such as …

Bounded Thunderstorm Tracking Of Lightning Events With Muon Detection, Skylar Wardlaw, Ainsley Helgerson, Maria Kaminska, Logan Velvet, Georgii Dubrov, Jackson Stewart, Aaron Jung, Nathaniel O’Hara, Amelia Koth, Nash Mcleod, Emaleth Wyckoff

Discovery Day - Daytona Beach

The muon is a high-energy particle that can be produced by cosmic rays and trigger upper-atmospheric particle cascades and energetic processes. It has been hypothesized that such cascades are at the onset of lightning. As such, muons serve as a valuable probe for investigating the underlying mechanisms of its initiation, whose full governing dynamics remain vastly unknown despite extensive research. Traditional approaches to lightning research involve simulations and observations of the discharge itself, but the role of high-energy particle interactions has yet to be fully constrained. The CosmicWatch Muon Detector design enables the detection of atmospheric muons through scintillation events, …

Stormtrack: A Regime-Aware Classifier-Router Architecture For Multi-Horizon Kp Index Forecasting, John Rendleman

Discovery Day - Daytona Beach

STORMTRACK: A Regime-Aware Classifier-Router Architecture for Multi-Horizon Kp Index Forecasting Current algorithms in operational space weather face extreme difficultly predicting the Kp geomagnetic index beyond 24 hours, a lead time that is critical for protecting high-frequency communications and infrastructure. Most regression models are optimized for quiet conditions, which dominate the data, leading to systematic underpredictions of storm events that cripple space infrastructure. Probabilistic approaches and physics-based numerical models also falter due to the same class imbalance plaguing standard regressors at multi-day lead times. The ICARUS 6 architecture addresses this by splitting the forecasting component into quiet and storm regimes, which …

Modeling Seiche Oscillations Using Damped Vibration Differential Equations, Bianca Gerity, Arineh Shahbazi

Discovery Day - Daytona Beach

A seiche oscillation is a standing wave that oscillates in an enclosed body of water, like a lake or pool. Seiches are caused by strong winds, earthquakes, and rapid atmospheric changes. Seiches are an excellent real-world example of damped harmonic motion. The physics of these unique vibrations can actually be modeled using a second-order differential equation for damped oscillators of the general form mx''+cx'+kx=0, where m represents the mass of the vibrating water column, c represents the energy dissipation due to friction and viscosity, and k represents the force governed by gravity and the basin's geometry. The objective of this …

A Statistical Analysis Of Current And Future Hurricane Activity In The North Indian Ocean, Basil Lund

2026 Symposium

A hurricane is defined as a tropical storm with winds sustained at 74 mph or greater. I examined major (category 3 and above) hurricane activity over the North Indian Ocean from the years 1972-2019 as reported by Colorado State University Hurricane Forecast Archive. Using RStudio, I conducted a binomial analysis of the CSU dataset to calculate probabilities of zero to ten years with one or more major North Indian Ocean hurricanes in the next decade. I conducted a geometric analysis to determine probabilities associated with waiting periods for the next year with a major hurricane, as well as a Poisson …

Prediction Of Future Mushroom Fruiting Success And Dispersion Based On Models Of Changing Surface Air Temperature In Oaxaca, Mexico, Frida Martinez

ATU Scholars Symposium

Mushrooms serve various purposes, including medicinal, culinary, and cultural significance for indigenous groups, as well as recreational and ecosystem services. Oaxaca, Mexico, is a hotspot for mushroom biodiversity including the following varieties: Amanita muscaria, Schizophyllum commune and Coprinellus disseminates. The purpose of this study is to determine if a changing Mean Surface Air Temperature will have an influence on these mushrooms. We obtained, analyzed, and compared historical and future climate data from the World Bank Group Climate Change Knowledge Portal to identify if any of the mushroom species would be impacted. The study revealed a general trend of warming Mean …

Assessing The Effect Of A Human-Made Reservoir On The Mussel Community In Caney Creek, Trakker Estes

ATU Scholars Symposium

Freshwater mussels are one of the most threatened taxonomic groups globally, with less than 32% of North American taxa considered secure. In Arkansas, over half of the state’s 85 species are endangered, threatened, or of special concern. Small impoundments may contribute to these declines through reduced hydrological connectivity and the resulting decline of fish community movement. This study examines the effects of Tri-County Lake, a small impoundment of Caney Creek in southern Arkansas, on mussel abundance and diversity. In total, eight sites were surveyed upstream, within, and downstream of the impoundment across various habitat types. A timed-search approach utilizing scuba …

Norfolk Flooding And Its Effect On Nutrient And Enterococcus Levels, Malachi R. Stephens

Knowledge and Creativity Expo

Tidal flooding is common in the City of Norfolk, VA due to high rates of sea rise in the region, as well as the region’s subsidence. This has led to increases in flooding at high tide, especially during the spring tide portion of the tidal cycle.  At high tide water from the Elizabeth and Lafayette Rivers can flood the landscape directly or can rise out of storm drains. This floodwater often stays on land for long periods of time and can deliver contaminants back into the rivers. To determine the amounts of nutrients and Enterococcus, a fecal indicator, delivered to …

Reconstructing 5000 Years Of Hurricane Activity In Holyrood Pond Using Sediment Core Analysis, Jamie Mclaulin, Arielle Nogueira, Elizabeth Wallace

Knowledge and Creativity Expo

Hurricanes are hazardous and costly events that annually negatively impact people that live in coastal areas in North America.  The current observational record of hurricanes is short (1970- present) and does not offer insight into the effects of climate change on hurricane frequency.  One method of improving and extending our observational record of hurricanes is to reconstruct paleohurricanes using sediment cores.  These cores record hurricane activity in the form of coarse-grained overwash layers that are deposited when hurricanes move sand from beaches into backbarrier ponds.  In this project, we analyzed sediment cores from Atlantic Canada to locate coarse-grained storm layers …

Is The Chesapeake Bay Browning?, Samantha Williamson, Jessie Turner

Knowledge and Creativity Expo

Brownification is when water bodies turn brown over time. It occurs due to high amounts of color-dissolved organic matter (CDOM). CDOM is organic material, such as decaying leaves and organisms, that leaches into the water column like tea. It absorbs ultraviolet and blue light more than red light, causing the water to appear brown. After comparing surveys from 1987 and 2018, scientists discovered the Adirondack lakes underwent brownification as they recovered from acid rain. However, while increased CDOM can signify an ecosystem’s recovery, it can also hinder seagrass growth. Although scientists have studied this phenomenon in lakes, estuaries have not …

Living Shorelines As A Solution To Saltwater Marsh Erosion, Elizjah Eddy, Richard Hale

Knowledge and Creativity Expo

In recent years, saltwater marshes fringing the Lafayette River, a tributary of the Elizabeth River, have experienced degradation in response to increased inundation and ocean energy . These marshes provide critical ecological and economic benefits to the City of Norfolk, and prioritizing their long term health and sustainability is an important challenge. An emerging restoration tactic involves enhancing marsh elevation through the application of dredge material that would otherwise require disposal offshore (known as thin-layer placement or TLP). An important first step in TLP projects is characterizing the textural and geochemical properties of the existing marsh sediment. The goal of …

How Much Does Shape Matter: Investigating The Impact Of Marine Particle Morphological Features On In-Situ Settling Velocities Using Pca And Various Ml Models, Huanqing Huang, Alexander B. Bochdansky

Knowledge and Creativity Expo

Particle settling velocity serves as an essential component in ocean biological pump, as it determines particle retention time in the water column. Stokes’ law has been widely used to predict particle settling velocities by particle size and excess density in aquatic environments. However, an increasing number of studies suggest that Stokes’ law fits poorly in the size-velocity relationship of observations on small oceanic particles. Here, we present a series of novel approaches to investigate the relative contribution of settling velocities by the particle shape and optical densities using machine learning (ML) models and principal component analysis (PCA), based on 3906 …

How Does Vertical Hydroponic Farming Compare To Traditional Soil Farming In Terms Of Crop Yield, Energy Efficiency, And Cost?, Grace Morgan, Grace Henry, Rebecca Meenach, Jeana Odom

Student Scholar Symposium

Vertical hydroponics (hydro “water;” ponics “labor”) is a method of year-round farming that uses water in place of soil and supplies vegetables’ nutrients in a space-efficient setting. It dates back to 500 BC when it was used in the Hanging Gardens of Babylon, a wonder of the ancient world. Thousands of years later, vertical hydroponics has expanded across the globe to supply leafy greens, herbs, and grains. It is typically implemented in dense urban environments where green space is hard to come by as a form of sustainable farming. Our research seeks to answer the question “How does vertical hydroponic …

Culture Mediates Climate Opinion Change: A System Dynamics Model, Louis (Lou) Gross, Yoon Ah Shin, Sara M. Constantino, Ann Kinzig, Katherine Lacasse, Brian Beckage

Annual Symposium on Biomathematics and Ecology Education and Research

No abstract provided.

Machine Learning-Based Variance Analysis Of Brightness Temperature In Simulated Satellite Footprints, Chhaya R. Kulkarni, Nikki Prive, Vandana P. Janeja

I-GUIDE Forum

This study investigates the variance in brightness temperature (BT) within simulated satellite footprints for Observing System Simulation Experiments (OSSE), focusing specifically on Channels 5 and 11 of the Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit (AMSU-A). High-resolution atmospheric simulations from the DYnamics of the Atmospheric general circulation Modeled On Non-hydrostatic Domains (DYAMOND) dataset were utilized to generate brightness temperature data using the Python interface for the Community Radiative Transfer Model (PyCRTM). A computational design map incorporating Random Forest and Association Rule Mining was employed to identify and validate key atmospheric variables influencing BT variance. This ensemble approach facilitated a deeper understanding of atmospheric …

How Potential Is Potential Evapotranspiration For Representing Droughts In The Western U.S.?, Adison Davis, Grace Affram, Cody Ratterman

Student Research Symposium

The U.S. Drought Monitor (USDM) identifies areas in drought and labels them by severity.

Modulation Of The Pacific Meridional Mode On The Dipole Pattern Of The Conus Summertime Precipitation, Grace Affram

Student Research Symposium

Historically, the precipitation trend over the past few decades in the Contiguous United States (CONUS) exhibits a "Dry-West Wet-East" pattern; this is manifested by recent droughts/floods in the western/eastern US. However, it remains elusive what atmospheric phenomenon has potentially driven such a remarkable, and impactful precipitation pattern. Here we found that a coupled climate mode—the Pacific Meridional Mode (PMM) exerted strong impacts on the precipitation pattern over the CONUS during the summer season. We discovered a significant association between the PMM index and precipitation across the CONUS; this was manifested as a zonal dipole pattern—negative correlations in the western U.S. …

08 - Blue Carbon Sequestration And Sediment Storage In Seagrass Meadows Of South Bay, Luke C. Clements, Adriana Amrhein, Richard P. Hale

Undergraduate Research Symposium

Blue carbon is stored in coastal and marine ecosystems like seagrass meadows and salt marshes, which helps combat climate change by preventing greenhouse gas emissions. This study examines the role of seagrass in carbon storage by comparing sediment cores from a mud channel and a seagrass meadow in South Bay.

We collected a 100 cm core from the mud channel and a 55 cm core from the seagrass area, taking samples every 10 cm to analyze grain size and organic carbon content. Using a wet sieving method, we separated sand from mud and measured organic carbon through loss on ignition. …

Soft Law, Activism, And Climate Displacement: Rethinking International Protections For The Environmentally Displaced, Guljannat Huseynli, Andrea G. Brown

Graduate Research Conference (GSIS)

Climate change is displacing millions of people globally, yet those forced to migrate due to environmental factors remain unprotected under existing international refugee law. This paper argues that legal recognition for climate refugees can emerge not through immediate treaty reform but through the evolution of soft law and norm creation. Drawing on constructivist theory, it examines how activism, international organizations, and legal precedents contribute to shifting global norms. Through case studies such as Ioane Teitiota v. New Zealand and the Fridays for Future movement, the paper shows how strategic litigation and advocacy can build momentum for future legal protections. It …

Understanding The Plastic Issue (Poster Presentation), Regan Bossie, Peter Nguyen, John Mcswiggin, Adam Meadows

Sustainability Conference

The Plastic-Free Campus Initiative is an Embry-Riddle initiative advocating for the reduction and elimination of single-use plastics on the Daytona Beach campus.

Our poster presentation aims to highlight current issues and concerns by presenting plastic production trends, quantifying how plastic pollution has affected global ecosystems, and discussing the material characteristics of plastics and their consequences. The poster will provide an overview of the current state of global recycling and will outline key concerns that microplastics, and plastics in general, pose to public health. By presenting the current facts and concerns related to plastic and recycling, we hope to encourage individuals …

A Paradigm For Ecological Dynamics In Predator-Prey Systems: Applications To Climate Change, Grayson D. Adams, Aditi Ghosh Dr.

Annual Symposium on Biomathematics and Ecology Education and Research

No abstract provided.

Statistical Downscaling Of Climate Datasets With Deep Generative Model And Bayesian Inference, Guiye Li, Guofeng Cao

I-GUIDE Forum

Facing the challenges of global climate change, precise and high spatial resolution climate data are crucial and in pressing need for scientific research and analysis. However, most existing datasets are only available with very coarse spatial resolution and demand large-scale resolution enhancement. Meanwhile, climate datasets own much more intricate textures than natural images. Statistical downscaling or super-resolution (SR) with the deep-learning-based generative model might be a promising approach to address these challenges. It is worth noting that a learned Bayesian reconstruction with generative models (L-BRGM) method was proposed recently. The proposed Bayesian deep learning framework employs a single pre-trained generative …

Typology Of Atmospheric Conditions Leading To Dam Overtopping In The Eastern Us, Hodo I. Orok, Deanna Hence

I-GUIDE Forum

Statistical characterization of reanalysis datasets during over 300 hydrologic dam incidents between 2003 and 2022 will create a detailed typology of weather systems associated with dam overtopping in the eastern United States. Dam overtopping poses significant risks to infrastructure and public safety, necessitating a comprehensive understanding of the multi-scale atmospheric conditions that lead to such events. To better account for the natural flow of water to the affected dams, we will adopt a watershed-focused Principal Component Analysis (PCA) on regional atmospheric data collected from ERA5 alongside USGS streamflow and Stage IV precipitation observations to enhance understanding of high-risk weather conditions. …

High Mountain Ecosystems And Snow Cover In A Changing Climate: For Better Or For Worse, Philippe Choler

FRONTIERS UNBOUND: Exploring Extreme Environments

No abstract provided.