Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology Commons^™

Understanding And Predicting Precipitation Characteristics In The United States Through Machine Learning, Numerical Modeling And Measurements, Cody Luther Ratterman

All Graduate Theses and Dissertations, Fall 2023 to Present

Precipitation is one of the most important yet uncertain variables in the climate system. It varies dramatically in terms of timing, accumulation, rate, and phase, depending on location, season, circulation patterns, and atmospheric conditions. Precipitation forecasts, especially snowfall, are essential to supporting drought mitigation and water management in the Intermountain West. Because rainfall and snowfall lead to opposite effects on snowpack, accurately partitioning rain and snow is important to estimate snowpack levels, winter recreation, mountain ecosystems and runoff. The research findings in this dissertation have advanced the understanding and prediction of precipitation and snowpack in the U.S. by addressing the …

A Statistical Analysis Of Current And Future Hurricane Activity In The North Indian Ocean, Basil Lund

2026 Symposium

A hurricane is defined as a tropical storm with winds sustained at 74 mph or greater. I examined major (category 3 and above) hurricane activity over the North Indian Ocean from the years 1972-2019 as reported by Colorado State University Hurricane Forecast Archive. Using RStudio, I conducted a binomial analysis of the CSU dataset to calculate probabilities of zero to ten years with one or more major North Indian Ocean hurricanes in the next decade. I conducted a geometric analysis to determine probabilities associated with waiting periods for the next year with a major hurricane, as well as a Poisson …

Development And Evaluation Of An Mpas-Based Urban Modeling System For The New York City Region, Marco S. Yu, Kristian Rice

Publications and Research

Complex geometry and varying land cover make urban environments difficult to simulate accurately. This research presents a performance evaluation of the newly developed urban modeling system in the Model for Prediction Across Scales (MPAS). Weather over the New York metropolitan area during June 2018 was simulated using supercomputing resources and the new urban modeling system. Modeled 2-m air temperature was compared with historical hourly observations from five NYC Mesonet stations, one located in each of the five boroughs. Comparison showed that the model follows the timing of warming and cooling well, but overestimates the magnitude of temperature swings at peaks …

2026 April - Tennessee Monthly Climate Report, Tennessee Climate Office, East Tennessee State University

Tennessee Climate Office Monthly Reports

Hi All,

The main story of April 2026 was the hot and dry pattern that impacted Tennessee for most of the month and which was a continuation of this same pattern from March. Temperature anomalies across the state in April were slightly less than what we observed in March, but mean temperatures still ranged from 4-8°F above normal for April. Based on mean temperatures for the month, April 2026 was the warmest April on record in Knoxville’s 153-year weather history (beating out April 2017 by 0.2°F) and Nashville’s 152-year weather history (beating out April 2017 by 1.2°F). April 2026 was …

2026 February 26 - Tennessee Weekly Drought Summary, Tennessee Climate Office, East Tennessee State University

Tennessee Climate Office Weekly Drought Summaries

No abstract provided.

2026 February 12 - Tennessee Weekly Drought Summary, Tennessee Climate Office, East Tennessee State University

Tennessee Climate Office Weekly Drought Summaries

No abstract provided.

2026 February 5 - Tennessee Weekly Drought Summary, Tennessee Climate Office, East Tennessee State University

Tennessee Climate Office Weekly Drought Summaries

No abstract provided.

2026 February - Tennessee Monthly Climate Report, Tennessee Climate Office, East Tennessee State University

Tennessee Climate Office Monthly Reports

Hi All

February 2026 began with a volatile combination of a mid-level low from the Central U.S. and a powerful system moving up the East Coast, trapping Tennessee in a deep freeze. This convergence brought heavy snowfall to East Tennessee while much of the rest of the state was still recovering from a major winter storm just a week prior. On the morning of February 2, record-breaking temperatures hit 15-20°F below normal across the state. In particular, the Bristol/Tri-Cities airport recorded a low of -7°F, breaking its daily record by seven degrees and marking its first sub-zero temperature since 2015. …

2026 February - Tennessee Climate Snapshot, Tennessee Climate Office, East Tennessee State University

Tennessee Climate Office Monthly Reports

No abstract provided.

2026 January 29 - Tennessee Weekly Drought Summary, Tennessee Climate Office, East Tennessee State University

Tennessee Climate Office Weekly Drought Summaries

No abstract provided.

2026 January 22 - Tennessee Weekly Drought Summary, Tennessee Climate Office, East Tennessee State University

Tennessee Climate Office Weekly Drought Summaries

No abstract provided.

2026 January - Tennessee Climate Snapshot, Tennessee Climate Office, East Tennessee State University

Tennessee Climate Office Monthly Reports

No abstract provided.

2026 January - Tennessee Monthly Climate Report, Tennessee Climate Office, East Tennessee State University

Tennessee Climate Office Monthly Reports

Hi All,

The main weather and climate story of January 2026 was the major winter storm that impacted the state from Saturday, January 24 through Monday, January 26 with rain, freezing rain, sleet, and snow, followed by extremely cold conditions. Winter storm warnings and winter weather advisories were in place across the state on Friday, January 23, as snow and sleet spread into Tennessee from the west in the overnight hours of Friday into Saturday. Most areas of the state saw an initial round of snow and sleet, before a layer of warm air aloft caused most locations to see …

Recent Climatology And Changes In Precipitating Storm Characteristics Over Conus, Tyler Landsparger

Electronic Theses & Dissertations (2024 - present)

As anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions continue to warm the global climate system, improving our understanding of how precipitating storms are responding in the real world has become increasingly important.  This study leverages 22 years of high-resolution hourly precipitation data from the NCEP Stage IV dataset to produce a seasonal climatology and long-term trend analysis of precipitating storm frequency, duration, area, and intensity across the Contiguous United States (CONUS) from March 2002 through February 2024.  Storms were identified and tracked using an object-tracking algorithm and their characteristics were computed for each season, from which 22-year climatology and trends were derived.  The …

2025 - Tennessee Climate Snapshot, Tennessee Climate Office, East Tennessee State University

Tennessee Climate Office Monthly Reports

No abstract provided.

2025 - Tennessee Annual Climate Summary, Tennessee Climate Office, East Tennessee State University

Tennessee Climate Office Monthly Reports

Excerpt: 

The mean (average) temperature for 2025 across Tennessee was a bit warmer than normal for most of the state, with the majority of areas reporting temperatures that were 1-2°F above the 1991-2020 NOAA climate normals, with some areas, mostly in the northeastern section of the state within one degree of normal. However, there were a lot of temperature swings throughout the year with below normal temperatures for most regions of the state in January, July, August, and November, while well above normal temperatures were observed in parts of the state in February, April, May, and June [...]

2025 December - Tennessee Monthly Climate Report, Tennessee Climate Office, East Tennessee State University

Tennessee Climate Office Monthly Reports

Hi All,

December was defined by quite a bit of temperature variability (though the temperature swings resulted in near-normal monthly averages) and an overall dry pattern.

The month started out cooler than normal, with a slight moderation in the second week of the month, before a strong cold front sent temperatures tumbling into the teens or single-digits and wind chills into the single digits or below zero on December 14 and 15 - with many locations stuck in the 20’s or even teens for high temperatures. Following this cold weather, temperatures quickly rebounded into the normal and then well above …

2025 November - Tennessee Monthly Climate Report, Tennessee Climate Office, East Tennessee State University

Tennessee Climate Office Monthly Reports

Hi All,

The month of November 2025 averaged warmer than normal by 2-4°F across most of the state. The northeastern corner of TN was closer to average, with a few areas even slightly cooler than normal. Additionally, November was drier than normal for most areas, with the exception of a few parts of the Cumberland Plateau and in East TN where heavier bands of precipitation set up while most of the state recorded only light rainfall.

The main weather and climate story of November 2025 was the early taste of winter that impacted the state November 9-12, which also coincided …

2025 October - Tennessee Monthly Climate Report, Tennessee Climate Office, East Tennessee State University

Tennessee Climate Office Monthly Reports

Hi All,

October 2025 was a quiet month for weather across Tennessee. The major stories included improving drought conditions across the western half of the state and relatively large temperature fluctuations. There were some days with heavy rainfall in West Tennessee but flooding was minimal due to the dry conditions in September. Tennessee experienced some pronounced temperature swings during the month with many areas reaching into the 80’s or even 90’s in the first week of October as well as in the middle of October, and then down into the 20’s or 30’s by the end of the month. This …

Understanding And Assessing Climate Change: Preparing For Nebraska’S Future, 2024 Climate Change Impact Assessment Report, Deborah J. Bathke, Eric Hunt, Heather Akin, Andrea D. Basche, Jesse E. Bell, Daniel R. Dileo, Ross Dixon, Martha Durr, Tonya Haigh, Francis John Hay, Kristina W. Kintziger, Nicholas A. Mcmillan, Hank Miller, Jerome Okojokwu-Idu, Crystal Powers, Tirthankar Roy, Zhenghong Tang, W. Ryan Wishart, Aaron R. Young, Sarah A. Sonsthagen, Jonathan J. Spurgeon

School of Natural Resources: Faculty Publications

Contents

Report Team

Acknowledgments

Executive Summary

Introduction

Climate Change Contexts: Global, National, and State

Observed Changes in Nebraska's Climate

Projections of Nebraska's Future Climate

Water Systems

Energy

Ecosystems

Agriculture

Human Health

Communities and the Built Environment

Indigenous Peoples

Climate Justice and Equity

The Response of Faith Communities

Nebraskans' Perceptions of Climate Change

Next Steps and Future Work

Supplemental Report: Adaptation, Risks, and Impacts

About the Authors

Faith-based Communities Survey

Evaluated Plans and Assessments

References

Stream Temperature Responses To Summer Urban Rain Events Along The Savannah River, Joseph E. Wermter, Vivian L. Turner, Max K. Appelbaum, James M. Shepherd, Jacob Z. Lott

Journal of South Carolina Water Resources

The hydrological urban heat island (HUHI) is a recent facet of the urban heat island (UHI), describing thermal enhancement of bodies of water in response to urbanization. Although the forefront of this work has been studied for large Metropolitan areas, this effect on developing cities is currently unknown. To locally measure and quantify HUHI effects in a developing city, we utilized Multi-Radar Multi Sensor (MRMS) radar-derived rainfall data to estimate rainfall in the Augusta Metropolitan Area (AMA) and the Savannah Metropolitan Area (SMA), two developing communities adjacent to the Savannah River. We analyzed mean temperature trends of two stream gauges …

2025 September - Tennessee Monthly Climate Report, Tennessee Climate Office, East Tennessee State University

Tennessee Climate Office Monthly Reports

Hi All,

The main weather and climate stories of September 2025 for Tennessee were the hot and dry conditions in West Tennessee that led to rapid drought expansion. While the month started out cool, warmer than normal conditions built back into the state from west to east in the second and third weeks of September. Daytime temperatures were especially high, with many locations in the western half of the state seeing high temperatures that were 5-15°F warmer than normal for this time of the year. This combined with a lack of rainfall over the summer season led to rapid drought …

2025 August - Tennessee Monthly Climate Report, Tennessee Climate Office, East Tennessee State University

Tennessee Climate Office Monthly Reports

No abstract provided.

Seeking Structure In Complex Systems: From Feature Analysis To Space-Time Causal Discovery With Earth Science Applications, Jeffrey J. Nichol

Computer Science ETDs

Complex systems are difficult to study because of their many interacting parts, emergent phenomena, and feedback loops. These systems underpin all life on Earth. We need improved tools for seeking an understanding of them. This body of research presents my investigations into data-driven methods for understanding complex systems, including my invention of a novel causal discovery meta-algorithm for space-time gridded data. I demonstrated machine learning feature importance and causal discovery capabilities for comparing simulated and observed climate data. I developed a new benchmark for modeling space-time dynamics of locally driven phenomena and examined a prominent causal discovery algorithm. Finding that …

2025 July - Tennessee Monthly Climate Report, Tennessee Climate Office, East Tennessee State University

Tennessee Climate Office Monthly Reports

Hi All,

The main story for July was the high heat and humidity that spread across the state for the second half of the month. Most counties in the state saw at least 1 day with a heat advisory or extreme heat warning issued by the National Weather Service due to a combination of high temperatures and humidity that sent heat index values above advisory/warning criteria. The western half of the state saw higher heat index values and were impacted by the heat wave for a longer period of time than the eastern half of the state. Some part of …

Late Holocene To Modern Dust Increases In Antarctic Ice Cores, Lillian D. Tipton

Dartmouth College Master’s Theses

Dust aerosols impact global climate by influencing direct and indirect radiative forcing, serving as cloud condensation nuclei, and supplying trace nutrients to the ocean that affect the marine biological pump. Antarctic ice core dust records show dust deposition changing in step with global climate over the past eight ice-age cycles. However, fewer studies have focused on Antarctic dust deposition during the late Holocene-to-modern period. Notably, 20^th-century increases in dust deposition have been observed in ice cores from James Ross Island (JRI) and Dronning Maud Land, with the JRI record hypothesized to reflect desertification and land-use changes in Patagonia. …

2025 June - Tennessee Monthly Climate Report, Tennessee Climate Office, East Tennessee State University

Tennessee Climate Office Monthly Reports

Hi All,

The main story of June 2025 was the first major heat wave of the year that sent temperatures into the mid-to-upper 90’s and heat index values over 100°F for most locations in the state from June 22nd to 28th. This included the first day of the year with a high over 90°F for many parts of the state. The National Weather Service offices covering Tennessee issued heat advisories for most counties in the state for at least 1 day during this period and several areas of West and Middle Tennessee had multiple days in a row with these …

2025 May - Tennessee Monthly Climate Report, Tennessee Climate Office, East Tennessee State University

Tennessee Climate Office Monthly Reports

Hi All,

For May 2025, the main weather/climate stories were the continued pattern of severe weather impacting Tennessee as well as Chattanooga recording their wettest May in the 147-year weather history of the city. Starting with the record rainfall in Chattanooga, the Chattanooga airport weather station recorded a total of 12.02-inches of rainfall over May 2025, 8.08-inches above normal and 0.02-inches above the previous record wettest May in 1929. Many other areas of East Tennessee and the Cumberland Plateau also had well above normal rainfall this month, but they were emerging out of a drought from last fall and winter …

2025 April - Tennessee Monthly Climate Report, Tennessee Climate Office, East Tennessee State University

Tennessee Climate Office Monthly Reports

Hi All,

April was a very active weather month across Tennessee! Consequently, this is one of our longer monthly reports. The main weather and climate stories for April 2025 were the deadly severe weather, extreme rainfall and associated flooding, and record-setting heat that all occurred in the first week of the month. A series of weather systems set up across the central U.S. in the first week of April, with warm, moist air funneled into Tennessee from the Gulf. This pattern produced severe thunderstorms, heavy rainfall, and high temperatures from April 2nd to 6th. The series of storms began on …

The Impact Of Drought And Socio-Economic Factors On Attitudes Toward Immigrants In South Africa, Pamela Antwi-Nimarko

Graduate Program in International Studies Theses & Dissertations

Estimates of the global migrant population have steadily increased, with current data from the International Organization for Migration (IOM) reporting approximately 281 million migrants worldwide. Alongside this growth, anti-immigrant sentiments have risen in many host countries. This study seeks to contribute to the research on attitudes toward immigrants by exploring climate-related factors, particularly drought, as a key influence.

Leveraging a unique dataset combining the World Values Survey (WVS) and Afrobarometer, the study examines how drought, along with individual and contextual factors, affects attitudes toward immigrants. This dataset allows for an in-depth analysis of the direct impact of drought on public …