Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology Commons^™

Exploring Alternate Methods Of Flood Output Estimation During Natural Disasters, Finley Gardner

Honors College Theses

In April of 2025, extreme flooding damaged many homes and buildings of people across Kentucky. The Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) produces maps that show the potential for flooding in areas around water bodies, but many of the April flooding damaged areas were well outside of the FEMA classification zones. The main purpose of this thesis research was to create an accurate model of potential flood extent in Kentucky and compare it to FEMA maps. This model did not require extensive computing power and produced a map that accurately depicted flood extent through the use of Digital Elevation Model (DEM) …

2026 April - Tennessee Monthly Climate Report, Tennessee Climate Office, East Tennessee State University

Tennessee Climate Office Monthly Reports

Hi All,

The main story of April 2026 was the hot and dry pattern that impacted Tennessee for most of the month and which was a continuation of this same pattern from March. Temperature anomalies across the state in April were slightly less than what we observed in March, but mean temperatures still ranged from 4-8°F above normal for April. Based on mean temperatures for the month, April 2026 was the warmest April on record in Knoxville’s 153-year weather history (beating out April 2017 by 0.2°F) and Nashville’s 152-year weather history (beating out April 2017 by 1.2°F). April 2026 was …

2026 February 26 - Tennessee Weekly Drought Summary, Tennessee Climate Office, East Tennessee State University

Tennessee Climate Office Weekly Drought Summaries

No abstract provided.

2026 February 12 - Tennessee Weekly Drought Summary, Tennessee Climate Office, East Tennessee State University

Tennessee Climate Office Weekly Drought Summaries

No abstract provided.

2026 February 5 - Tennessee Weekly Drought Summary, Tennessee Climate Office, East Tennessee State University

Tennessee Climate Office Weekly Drought Summaries

No abstract provided.

2026 February - Tennessee Monthly Climate Report, Tennessee Climate Office, East Tennessee State University

Tennessee Climate Office Monthly Reports

Hi All

February 2026 began with a volatile combination of a mid-level low from the Central U.S. and a powerful system moving up the East Coast, trapping Tennessee in a deep freeze. This convergence brought heavy snowfall to East Tennessee while much of the rest of the state was still recovering from a major winter storm just a week prior. On the morning of February 2, record-breaking temperatures hit 15-20°F below normal across the state. In particular, the Bristol/Tri-Cities airport recorded a low of -7°F, breaking its daily record by seven degrees and marking its first sub-zero temperature since 2015. …

2026 February - Tennessee Climate Snapshot, Tennessee Climate Office, East Tennessee State University

Tennessee Climate Office Monthly Reports

No abstract provided.

2026 January 29 - Tennessee Weekly Drought Summary, Tennessee Climate Office, East Tennessee State University

Tennessee Climate Office Weekly Drought Summaries

No abstract provided.

2026 January 22 - Tennessee Weekly Drought Summary, Tennessee Climate Office, East Tennessee State University

Tennessee Climate Office Weekly Drought Summaries

No abstract provided.

2026 January - Tennessee Climate Snapshot, Tennessee Climate Office, East Tennessee State University

Tennessee Climate Office Monthly Reports

No abstract provided.

2026 January - Tennessee Monthly Climate Report, Tennessee Climate Office, East Tennessee State University

Tennessee Climate Office Monthly Reports

Hi All,

The main weather and climate story of January 2026 was the major winter storm that impacted the state from Saturday, January 24 through Monday, January 26 with rain, freezing rain, sleet, and snow, followed by extremely cold conditions. Winter storm warnings and winter weather advisories were in place across the state on Friday, January 23, as snow and sleet spread into Tennessee from the west in the overnight hours of Friday into Saturday. Most areas of the state saw an initial round of snow and sleet, before a layer of warm air aloft caused most locations to see …

A Composite Narxnn Approach To Photovoltaic Power Forecasting With Integrated Weather Inputs And Uncertainty Quantification, Denisse Urenda Castañeda, Sharmin Abdullah, Jackson Morgan, Honglun Xu, Michael Pokojovy, Tzu-Liang Tseng

Mathematics & Statistics Faculty Publications

Solar photovoltaics (PV) are a major source of sustainable energy. Yet, their power output is highly sensitive to environmental variability, particularly solar irradiance, cloud cover, wind, and temperature. Accurate forecasting of PV power is essential for efficient grid integration and energy planning, especially in applications requiring reliable longer-term forecasting rather than one-step-ahead predictions. This study presents a PV power forecasting approach using Nonlinear Autoregressive models with Exogenous Inputs (NARX), integrating large-scale numerical weather historical data as exogenous variables. Although NARX models effectively capture temporal dependencies, they can become overly dependent on historical power values, reducing responsiveness to real-time weather changes. …

2025 - Tennessee Climate Snapshot, Tennessee Climate Office, East Tennessee State University

Tennessee Climate Office Monthly Reports

No abstract provided.

2025 - Tennessee Annual Climate Summary, Tennessee Climate Office, East Tennessee State University

Tennessee Climate Office Monthly Reports

Excerpt: 

The mean (average) temperature for 2025 across Tennessee was a bit warmer than normal for most of the state, with the majority of areas reporting temperatures that were 1-2°F above the 1991-2020 NOAA climate normals, with some areas, mostly in the northeastern section of the state within one degree of normal. However, there were a lot of temperature swings throughout the year with below normal temperatures for most regions of the state in January, July, August, and November, while well above normal temperatures were observed in parts of the state in February, April, May, and June [...]

Smart Pireps: Leveraging Technology To Simplify Pilot Weather Reporting In General Aviation, Emma Hellwege

Honors Projects

This honors project examines how emerging aviation technologies can support or automate components of Pilot Weather Reports (PIREPs) to improve reporting accuracy, reduce pilot workload, and increase participation within the general aviation (GA) community. PIREPs provide essential real-time weather observations—such as turbulence, icing, and visibility—that supplement automated systems and enhance situational awareness for pilots, air traffic control, and meteorologists. However, reports are vastly underutilized due to workload constraints, inconsistent training, voice-only submission methods, and technological disparities across the GA fleet.

Through a structured analysis of federal aviation documentation, sensor capabilities, human factors research, and recent advancements in automation, this study …

2025 December - Tennessee Monthly Climate Report, Tennessee Climate Office, East Tennessee State University

Tennessee Climate Office Monthly Reports

Hi All,

December was defined by quite a bit of temperature variability (though the temperature swings resulted in near-normal monthly averages) and an overall dry pattern.

The month started out cooler than normal, with a slight moderation in the second week of the month, before a strong cold front sent temperatures tumbling into the teens or single-digits and wind chills into the single digits or below zero on December 14 and 15 - with many locations stuck in the 20’s or even teens for high temperatures. Following this cold weather, temperatures quickly rebounded into the normal and then well above …

2025 November - Tennessee Monthly Climate Report, Tennessee Climate Office, East Tennessee State University

Tennessee Climate Office Monthly Reports

Hi All,

The month of November 2025 averaged warmer than normal by 2-4°F across most of the state. The northeastern corner of TN was closer to average, with a few areas even slightly cooler than normal. Additionally, November was drier than normal for most areas, with the exception of a few parts of the Cumberland Plateau and in East TN where heavier bands of precipitation set up while most of the state recorded only light rainfall.

The main weather and climate story of November 2025 was the early taste of winter that impacted the state November 9-12, which also coincided …

2025 October - Tennessee Monthly Climate Report, Tennessee Climate Office, East Tennessee State University

Tennessee Climate Office Monthly Reports

Hi All,

October 2025 was a quiet month for weather across Tennessee. The major stories included improving drought conditions across the western half of the state and relatively large temperature fluctuations. There were some days with heavy rainfall in West Tennessee but flooding was minimal due to the dry conditions in September. Tennessee experienced some pronounced temperature swings during the month with many areas reaching into the 80’s or even 90’s in the first week of October as well as in the middle of October, and then down into the 20’s or 30’s by the end of the month. This …

Understanding And Assessing Climate Change: Preparing For Nebraska’S Future, 2024 Climate Change Impact Assessment Report, Deborah J. Bathke, Eric Hunt, Heather Akin, Andrea D. Basche, Jesse E. Bell, Daniel R. Dileo, Ross Dixon, Martha Durr, Tonya Haigh, Francis John Hay, Kristina W. Kintziger, Nicholas A. Mcmillan, Hank Miller, Jerome Okojokwu-Idu, Crystal Powers, Tirthankar Roy, Zhenghong Tang, W. Ryan Wishart, Aaron R. Young, Sarah A. Sonsthagen, Jonathan J. Spurgeon

School of Natural Resources: Faculty Publications

Contents

Report Team

Acknowledgments

Executive Summary

Introduction

Climate Change Contexts: Global, National, and State

Observed Changes in Nebraska's Climate

Projections of Nebraska's Future Climate

Water Systems

Energy

Ecosystems

Agriculture

Human Health

Communities and the Built Environment

Indigenous Peoples

Climate Justice and Equity

The Response of Faith Communities

Nebraskans' Perceptions of Climate Change

Next Steps and Future Work

Supplemental Report: Adaptation, Risks, and Impacts

About the Authors

Faith-based Communities Survey

Evaluated Plans and Assessments

References

2025 September - Tennessee Monthly Climate Report, Tennessee Climate Office, East Tennessee State University

Tennessee Climate Office Monthly Reports

Hi All,

The main weather and climate stories of September 2025 for Tennessee were the hot and dry conditions in West Tennessee that led to rapid drought expansion. While the month started out cool, warmer than normal conditions built back into the state from west to east in the second and third weeks of September. Daytime temperatures were especially high, with many locations in the western half of the state seeing high temperatures that were 5-15°F warmer than normal for this time of the year. This combined with a lack of rainfall over the summer season led to rapid drought …

2025 August - Tennessee Monthly Climate Report, Tennessee Climate Office, East Tennessee State University

Tennessee Climate Office Monthly Reports

No abstract provided.

2025 July - Tennessee Monthly Climate Report, Tennessee Climate Office, East Tennessee State University

Tennessee Climate Office Monthly Reports

Hi All,

The main story for July was the high heat and humidity that spread across the state for the second half of the month. Most counties in the state saw at least 1 day with a heat advisory or extreme heat warning issued by the National Weather Service due to a combination of high temperatures and humidity that sent heat index values above advisory/warning criteria. The western half of the state saw higher heat index values and were impacted by the heat wave for a longer period of time than the eastern half of the state. Some part of …

2025 June - Tennessee Monthly Climate Report, Tennessee Climate Office, East Tennessee State University

Tennessee Climate Office Monthly Reports

Hi All,

The main story of June 2025 was the first major heat wave of the year that sent temperatures into the mid-to-upper 90’s and heat index values over 100°F for most locations in the state from June 22nd to 28th. This included the first day of the year with a high over 90°F for many parts of the state. The National Weather Service offices covering Tennessee issued heat advisories for most counties in the state for at least 1 day during this period and several areas of West and Middle Tennessee had multiple days in a row with these …

2025 May - Tennessee Monthly Climate Report, Tennessee Climate Office, East Tennessee State University

Tennessee Climate Office Monthly Reports

Hi All,

For May 2025, the main weather/climate stories were the continued pattern of severe weather impacting Tennessee as well as Chattanooga recording their wettest May in the 147-year weather history of the city. Starting with the record rainfall in Chattanooga, the Chattanooga airport weather station recorded a total of 12.02-inches of rainfall over May 2025, 8.08-inches above normal and 0.02-inches above the previous record wettest May in 1929. Many other areas of East Tennessee and the Cumberland Plateau also had well above normal rainfall this month, but they were emerging out of a drought from last fall and winter …

2025 April - Tennessee Monthly Climate Report, Tennessee Climate Office, East Tennessee State University

Tennessee Climate Office Monthly Reports

Hi All,

April was a very active weather month across Tennessee! Consequently, this is one of our longer monthly reports. The main weather and climate stories for April 2025 were the deadly severe weather, extreme rainfall and associated flooding, and record-setting heat that all occurred in the first week of the month. A series of weather systems set up across the central U.S. in the first week of April, with warm, moist air funneled into Tennessee from the Gulf. This pattern produced severe thunderstorms, heavy rainfall, and high temperatures from April 2nd to 6th. The series of storms began on …

2025 March - Tennessee Monthly Climate Report, Tennessee Climate Office, East Tennessee State University

Tennessee Climate Office Monthly Reports

Hi All, March and April were very eventful weather months across the state. We're starting to work through April data but below are the highlights for March. March continued the pattern of extremes in weather that Tennessee has seen in 2025, with high winds and fires, record-setting rainfall, and severe storms impacting the state. Several small to moderate sized grass, brush, and forest fires popped up around the state driven by days with high winds and low relative humidity in early March. One of the largest fires was in Sevier County, where the Pittman Center/Webb Mountain fire burned over 1,000 …

Spatiotemporal Prediction Of Atmospheric Events Through Recurrent Deep Learning Model, Brian W. F. Popick

Theses and Dissertations

The main contributions of this research is to add to the growing library of literature on the use of deep learning algorithms for the spatiotemporal prediction of dangerous atmospheric and hydrologic phenomena. Specifically, we develop novel attention-based and non-attention-based recurrent neural network frameworks to produce short-range sequential forecasts for lightning and tornado occurrences. Additionally, we introduce methods that account for and include error in the model tuning process to generate more reliable models. Furthermore, we have created a lightweight spatiotemporal tornadic prediction dataset that we plan to make publicly available. The first component of this research develops three novel spatiotemporal …

2025 February - Tennessee Monthly Climate Report, Tennessee Climate Office, East Tennessee State University

Tennessee Climate Office Monthly Reports

Hi All,

February 2025 brought a wide range of weather to Tennessee including severe storms, snow, flooding, and large temperature fluctuations. Warm temperatures in the first week of the month brought a taste of spring after a much colder than normal January across the state, with high temperatures climbing into the upper 70’s for many locations on February 4th. This warm airmass set the stage for severe weather to impact northern areas of the state on February 6th, with six reports of tornadoes (four EF1 tornadoes and two EF2 tornadoes). Cooler and wetter weather then returned to the state for …

2025 January - Tennessee Monthly Climate Report, Tennessee Climate Office, East Tennessee State University

Tennessee Climate Office Monthly Reports

No abstract provided.

A Wall Of Smoke: Understanding The Drivers Of The June 2023 Canadian Wildfire Smoke Event For New York City, Gregory S. Randazzo

Dissertations and Theses

The 2023 Canadian wildfire season was notable for its extent and the dense smoke it produced. Motivated by the resulting air quality impacts in the New York City region, we explore how the total particulate matter output from the Quebec fires influenced PM2.5 concentrations downstream in New York City. Using injection height data from the Regional Advanced Baseline Imager + VIIRS Emissions dataset, we relate the tropospheric injection heights of the fires with the broader synoptic context and surface PM2.5 concentrations. Using data from the NYS Mesonet Profiler Network, radiosondes, and ERA5 reanalysis, we document the connection between an anomalous …