Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology Commons^™

A Statistical Analysis Of Current And Future Hurricane Activity In The North Indian Ocean, Basil Lund

2026 Symposium

A hurricane is defined as a tropical storm with winds sustained at 74 mph or greater. I examined major (category 3 and above) hurricane activity over the North Indian Ocean from the years 1972-2019 as reported by Colorado State University Hurricane Forecast Archive. Using RStudio, I conducted a binomial analysis of the CSU dataset to calculate probabilities of zero to ten years with one or more major North Indian Ocean hurricanes in the next decade. I conducted a geometric analysis to determine probabilities associated with waiting periods for the next year with a major hurricane, as well as a Poisson …

Evapotranspiration Everywhere, All The Time: Towards A Unified View From Earth Observation, Joshua B. Fisher, Martha C. Anderson, Diego G. Miralles, Kanishka Mallick, Paul C. Stoy, Youngryel Ryu, Wim G. M. Bastiaanssen

Biology, Chemistry, and Environmental Sciences Faculty Articles and Research

Scientists want to know everything, everywhere, and all the time. This is particularly true in Earth science, where we seek to understand processes that span from the molecular to the planetary scale in how the world works, how it affects us, and how we impact it—especially the water cycle. Evapotranspiration (ET) was the last component to be measured in closing the water cycle: for decades, closing the water budget meant adding up all the measurable components, then inferring ET as the residual. Early measurements relied on water loss from pans and weighing lysimeters, followed by sensors inserted into plants to …

Climate Policy Uncertainty And Housing Prices: Analyzing Bidirectional Transmission Across U.S. Metropolitan Areas, Sourav Batabyal, Alper Gormus

Finance and Economics

This study examines the relationship between climate policy uncertainty (CPU) and residential housing prices across U.S. metropolitan areas using the U.S. CPU index developed by Gavriilidis in 2021 and monthly S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Indices, covering January 1991 to May 2024. Employing a Fourier-augmented Toda–Yamamoto causality framework that accounts for both abrupt and gradual structural breaks, we document significant CPU → housing prices transmission in multiple metropolitan markets, with bidirectional transmission dynamics emerging in Los Angeles, New York, San Diego, and San Francisco, as well as at the U.S. national level. The results reveal substantial spatial heterogeneity across various …

2026 May 7 - Tennessee Weekly Drought Summary, Tennessee Climate Office, East Tennessee State University

Tennessee Climate Office Weekly Drought Summaries

No abstract provided.

Riki&Dolphin: Real Time Data Transmission From The Bottom Of A Cave To A Website, Luca Tringali, Giacomo Canciani Dr., Tecla Tripari, Alexander Debenjak, Caterina Bearzotti

International Journal of Speleology

Coming from over 10 years of experience in cave monitoring in northeast Italy, Gruppo Speleologico Talpe del Carso, has designed Riki and Dolphin: customizable, low cost, and easy to assemble tools for getting real time data transmission from the bottom of a cave, even underwater, to a webserver. Their use has been tested to monitor air temperature inside the Abisso Bonetti Cave (Classical Karst, Italy), proving for the first time that a cave in Gorizian Karst can systematically be colder than the outdoor temperature even in winter, recording an internal temperature even lower than 0°C. The Dolphin device can be …

Do National Parks Significantly Improve Air Quality?, Xinyi Liu

Honors Capstones

Healthy living has long been a goal pursued by individuals. In an era where PM2.5 concentrations and greenhouse gas levels are steadily increasing, many people prefer to live in areas with relatively lower levels of air pollution. National parks, as well-known protected areas, typically contain more vegetation and water resources, along with lower levels of human activity. This suggests two potential mechanisms: first, pollutant emissions are expected to be lower; second, vegetation, water bodies, and non-urban land may contribute to the removal or deposition of airborne pollutants, including particulate matter. In everyday experience, people often perceive the air to be …

Urban Heat Mitigation In Newark, New Jersey Using Remote Sensing And Spatial Analysis, Ama Akowa Rhule

Theses, Dissertations and Culminating Projects

This study examines urban heat patterns in Newark, New Jersey, using remote sensing and spatial analytics to support targeted mitigation strategies. Land Surface Temperature (LST) was derived from a Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager/Thermal Infrared Sensor (OLI/TIRS) scene acquired on July 28, 2025, representing a summer snapshot of surface thermal conditions. While urban heat island effects are typically considered long-term climatic phenomena, this study uses a single-date observation to capture spatial variability in temperature across the city. Land cover variables, including tree canopy and impervious surface fractions, were obtained from the National Land Cover Database (NLCD), and demographic variables, including …

Dendroclimatic Response Of The Wet Miombo Woodland Species: A Case Study Of Mufulira District, Copperbelt Province, Zambia, Collins Chibuye Malubeni

All-Inclusive List of Electronic Theses and Dissertations

Zambia is a tropical, landlocked country that lies in the South-Central part of Africa. The climate in Zambia includes distinct dry and rainy seasons, mainly influenced by the north-south movement of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), which shifts seasonally. This research is focused on understanding the relationship between tree growth and climate using dendrochronology. Forty-nine tropical species, including Julbernardia paniculata, Brachystegia longifolia, and Pericopsis angolensis, were analysed for dendroclimatic potential, and 70% showed clear ring formation, indicating that trees in this locality produce distinct annual ring boundaries. For the single species chronology, thirteen cores from eight trees that were initially …

Microplastic Composition And Exposure Pathways In Freshwater Systems: A Multi-Matrix Comparison Between Streams And Retention Ponds In Hamilton County, In, Mya Whaley

All-Inclusive List of Electronic Theses and Dissertations

Since the early 1900s, the use of plastics has increased exponentially. The breakdown of plastic materials has exposed all ecosystems to microplastics (small particles of plastic < 5 mm), which are now ubiquitous in natural settings. Microplastics have a relatively large surface area, and many chemicals adsorb to these small particles, impacting their fate and transport of pollution. While microplastics have been found in virtually every setting on Earth, research is necessary to understand their impact on freshwater ecosystems and biogeochemical cycles. The focus of this research was to investigate microplastic compositions in crayfish, sediments, and water samples collected in streams and retention ponds. We analyzed trends in microplastic counts across different land-cover classes, waterbody types, and species, and compared concentrations among matrices to improve our understanding of microplastic exposure pathways in freshwater ecosystems. As a secondary objective, lead and arsenic concentrations were analyzed from sediment samples to investigate metal burdens and compare them to microplastic concentrations. Our findings revealed that, in general, urban streams had the highest microplastic concentrations within land cover categories, and retention ponds had higher microplastic counts than streams. Crayfish, such as F. rusticus had higher microplastic concentrations than F. virilis and F. propinquus, although these results may be influenced by study design. The most common microplastic type was fibers, and most common color was transparent. There was no significant correlation between microplastic and metal concentrations in sediments. We found crayfish to be adequate bioindicators of microplastic pollution, because they were less impacted by environmental variability than sediment and water samples. This research presents the first evidence of microplastics in our study species, F. propinquus, F. rusticus, and F. virlis. This work presents new evidence of microplastic accumulation in crayfish, sediments, and water from freshwater systems in the Midwestern United States. Microplastics were found in every sample type—crayfish, water, and sediment—across urban, rural, and forested landscapes, highlighting their pervasive distribution. The findings provide foundational data for assessing emerging ecological and human-health risks and emphasize the importance of sustained monitoring and research on MP contamination in freshwater environments.

Modeling The Effects Of Low-Pressure Atmospheric Fronts On Sediment Transport Through Mississippi Sound Barrier Island Inlets, Nicholas J. Gagliano

Master's Theses

Coastal sediment dynamics in the Mississippi Sound are strongly influenced by tropical cyclones and the more frequent passage of low-pressure atmospheric fronts. While hurricanes are well recognized for reshaping barrier islands and altering sediment budgets, the cumulative role of recurrent fronts remains poorly quantified. This thesis investigates the impacts of six low-pressure atmospheric fronts (2015–2017) on sediment flux through six barrier island inlets in the Mississippi Sound.

A high-resolution application of the Regional Ocean Modeling System with the Community Sediment Transport Modeling System was developed to simulate tidal circulation, wind-driven currents, and sediment dynamics. Waves were excluded from the simulations. …

An Analysis Of The Rapid Intensification Of Hurricane Milton, Ayden Rodriguez, Mark Sinclair

Publications

Hurricane Milton (October 2024) provides a compelling case study of a multiscale pathway to rapid intensification (RI), highlighting the alignment of synoptic preconditioning, favorable environmental conditions, and rapid inner-core structural evolution. The storm originated from the interaction of multiple tropical waves embedded within a low-level trough associated with the Central American Gyre, which enhanced low-level vorticity and moisture convergence prior to development. Upon entering the Gulf of Mexico, Milton encountered an environment characterized by anomalously warm sea surface temperatures, high ocean heat content, and weak vertical wind shear, enabling steady intensification and the onset of explosive RI that exceeded conventional …

Atmospheric Remote Sensing Using X-Band Radar In The Marine Atmospheric Surface Layer, Daniel P. Greenway

Electronic Theses and Dissertations

Atmospheric remote sensors have always offered promising technological advancements for measuring atmospheric properties over large spatial areas at high spatiotemporal resolution – a feat not currently possible with present atmospheric measurement technologies. However, remote sensors do not measure these atmospheric properties directly; they rely on robust calibrations or conversions, complex mathematical inversion methods, and/or machine learning to retrieve these properties. These inverse methods rely on the selection of an objective function, a machine learning technique, and an accurate parameterization for atmospheric property estimation. By leveraging inverse methods to improve the characterization of properties measured by remote sensors, this work enables …

Examining Extremes: A Comparison Between Machine Learning Based Southwestern Conus Seasonal Drought And High Fire Risk Event Synoptic Climatologies, Ethan M. Greenberg

School of Natural Resources: Dissertations, Theses, and Student Research

The Southwestern United States (SW CONUS), comprised of California, Arizona, Nevada, and Utah, is a vast region that tens of millions of people call home. Hosting ecosystems ranging from grasslands and shrublands to temperate forests and climate zones ranging from Mediterranean climates to arid deserts, the region is nearly unanimously prone to intense droughts and devastating wildfires. While fire weather conditions and drought are often studied separately or mentioned as background conditions for the other, there are relatively few studies that compare the typical meteorological conditions between the two. This study aims to more closely understand the meteorological relationship between …

Spatiotemporal Variability Of Differential Reflectivity (Zdr) Columns Due To Environment In Tornadic And Nontornadic Supercells, Adrianne J. Engel

Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences: Dissertations, Theses, and Student Research

Polarimetric signatures have been of interest to researchers and operational forecasters since the completion of the WSR-88D network upgrade in 2013. Differential reflectivity (Z_DR) columns, which are collocated with supercell updrafts, are the focus of this study. Microphysical distributions within these signatures can be used to infer updraft strength and elucidate the processes responsible for updraft intensity and evolution. Z_DR column depth, areal extent, and variability of these metrics through space and time are assessed in a dataset of 114 nontornadic and tornadic supercells. Means of column metrics in nontornadic, non-tornado-producing, and tornado-producing analysis times are evaluated …

An Assessment Of The Deep And Coastal Responses To Hurricane Passage In The Gulf Of Mexico, Using Complementary Observational Records And Model Simulations, Senam Kofi Tsei

Dissertations

In this dissertation, I examine and discuss different ocean features and ocean processes essential to the intensification of tropical cyclones in the Gulf of Mexico, drawing on observations, theory, and numerical model analyses across both the deep ocean and continental shelf-regimes. In the deep ocean, I integrate in situ measurements, theoretical framework, a 1D shear driven mixed layer model, and a high resolution model outputs to evaluate how salinity-driven stratification, Loop Current warm core eddies, pre-existing warm mixed layer temperatures, and the governing mechanisms mixed layer adjustment shape the upper ocean response before, during, and after storm passage. In the …

Extreme Precipitation Events And Population Exposure: Site Recommendations For The Future Tennessee Mesonet, Victoria G. Redlund

Electronic Theses and Dissertations

This study examines frequency of and population exposure to extreme rainfall events in Tennessee to guide the placement of future mesonet weather stations. Using 1991-2021 daily nClimGrid precipitation records, extreme events were defined as events of rainfall ≥50 mm. These events were collated on an annual scale and normalized alongside square-root-scaled population densities derived from Landscan to develop extreme rainfall vulnerability maps. Results highlight where extreme rainfall is most frequent relative to population densities in each county. The findings were compared with models of mesonet suitability and feasibility to determine how meteorological needs correlate with siting needs such as land …

Comparing Awssi And Traditional Winter Metrics For Predicting Overwinter Survival Of Juvenile Walleye (Sander Vitreus), Camille N. Shifrin

Honors Program: Senior Projects (Public)

Winter conditions are an important driver of recruitment variability in freshwater fishes, yet winter severity is often characterized using single climate metrics. These simplified approaches may not capture the cumulative stress experienced by fishes during winter. The Accumulated Winter Season Severity Index (AWSSI) integrates multiple components of winter climate and may therefore provide a more biologically relevant indicator of overwinter survival. In this study, we compared AWSSI with traditional winter severity metrics to explain interannual variation in overwinter survival of juvenile Walleye (Sander vitreus) in Harlan County Reservoir, Nebraska. Model comparisons using Akaike’s Information Criterion (AIC) indicated that …

2026 May - Tennessee Monthly Climate Report, Tennessee Climate Office, East Tennessee State University

Tennessee Climate Office Monthly Reports

Hi All,

The main weather and climate story for May 2026 across Tennessee was the weather whiplash that many experienced with severe and extreme drought conditions giving way to flash flooding later in the month. Additionally, many saw large and rapid temperature swings with two strong blasts of cold air sending temperatures into the 30’s or low 40’s for many early in the month and again on May 14-15. Followed by a heat wave that brought an early taste of summer to the state from May 16-21. The Bristol/Tri-Cities airport experienced a 2-day span between freezing temperatures and 90-degree heat …

2026 May - Tennessee Climate Snapshot, Tennessee Climate Office, East Tennessee State University

Tennessee Climate Office Monthly Reports

No abstract provided.

Modeling Water Quality And Cyanobacteria Blooms In St. Lucie Estuary, Florida, Mohmmad Masudur Rahman

Electronic Theses and Dissertations

The St. Lucie Estuary (SLE) on Florida’s east coast is vital for diverse aquatic life and provides essential services to local communities. However, the estuary’s health is threatened by water quality deterioration due to nutrient-driven phytoplankton blooms, particularly cyanobacteria, which have increased in frequency over recent decades. These blooms may worsen water quality by reducing dissolved oxygen, altering pH, and increasing turbidity. Moreover, some phytoplankton species, including Microcystis aeruginosa, a freshwater cyanobacteria species, produce harmful toxins, posing risks to both marine aquatic life and human health in this area. Primary nutrient sources in this estuary include watershed freshwater discharges, …

Clear-Air Turbulence Climatology And Trends, Liam Rodgers, Mark Sinclair

Publications

Clear‑air turbulence (CAT) is a major aviation hazard that occurs near airline cruising altitudes in both cloud and cloud‑free environments. Its lack of a distinct visual signature makes detection and avoidance difficult. CAT is associated with wind shear near jet streams, gravity waves, and Kelvin–Helmholtz instability and may be further enhanced by climate change. This study examines the climatology, spatial distribution, seasonal variability, and trends of CAT over the contiguous United States.

Pilot Reports (PIREPs) from 2001–2025 between 100 and 400 hPa are analyzed alongside jet stream, shear, and stability diagnostics derived from NCEP–NCAR Reanalysis data. Proxies such as inverse …

A Climatology Of Sudden Stratospheric Warmings And Their Tropospheric Response, Joe Lovelien, Mark Sinclair

Publications

Sudden Stratospheric Warmings (SSWs) are major disruptions of the wintertime polar vortex that can significantly influence surface weather, including cold air outbreaks (CAOs) across the midlatitudes. This study presents a climatology of SSWs from 1948-2024 using NCEP-NCAR reanalysis data and examines their temporal distribution, relationships with large-scale climate variability, and impacts on surface temperatures in the United States. SSWs are identified using previously published definitions based on the reversal of zonal-mean winds at 60°N and 10 hPa. A total of 44 SSW events were identified, with a strong seasonal preference for January through March. Some decadal variability is observed, though …

Warming Climate Amplifies Vapor Pressure Deficit Limits On Gross Primary Productivity, Shiqin Xu, Nate G. Mcdowell, Tim R. Mcvicar, Diego G. Miralles, Stephen Sitch, Pablo Sanchez-Martinez, Joshua B. Fisher, Pierre Friedlingstein, Hylke E. Beck, Matthew F. Mccabe

Biology, Chemistry, and Environmental Sciences Faculty Articles and Research

Ongoing climate warming may profoundly impact terrestrial gross primary productivity (GPP), a key component of the global carbon cycle. However, uncertainty in the relative roles of atmospheric water demand (vapor pressure deficit, VPD) and root-zone soil moisture (SM) limits predictions of drought impacts on GPP. Here, we show that growing-season GPP was more strongly constrained by VPD than SM globally, based on observation-constrained model estimates, satellite retrievals and Dynamic Global Vegetation Model simulations. The importance of VPD increased with higher temperatures and more severe and prolonged droughts. This pattern reflects VPD’s critical role in regulating stomatal conductance and plant hydraulic …

2026 April 30 - Tennessee Weekly Drought Summary, Tennessee Climate Office, East Tennessee State University

Tennessee Climate Office Weekly Drought Summaries

No abstract provided.

Assessment Of Morphological Differences And Genetic Variation In Head Shape Of Florida Pompano Trachinotus Carolinus, Neriah Nicholas

Electronic Theses and Dissertations

Genomics research can inform selective breeding programs to improve broodstock and seedstock quality for the U.S. warmwater marine finfish aquaculture industry. Florida pompano Trachinotus carolinus serves as a model species for the industry due to its commercial value and ability to spawn in captivity. This study examined a growth abnormality observed in commercially produced juveniles in partnership with Aquaco Farms LLC. Twenty fish were collected, culled, and euthanized by Aquaco staff, then classified into two head types: “normal” and “concaved”. Eleven morphological measurements were recorded before and after freezing to assess head variation and storage effects. DNA from pectoral fin …

Assessing Hyperlocal And Local Air Quality Through Passive Samplers And Low-Cost Monitors, Yan He

McKelvey School of Engineering Graduate Student Theses & Dissertations

Air pollution is a major environmental health concern and has been associated with respiratory disease, cardiovascular morbidity, metabolic disorders, premature mortality, and additional adverse health outcomes. Air pollution often exhibits substantial variability at fine spatial scales, yet conventional regulatory monitoring networks are too sparse to resolve neighborhood-level exposure gradients that may exist in many urban and rural communities. Hyperlocal differences in pollutant concentrations—driven by local emission sources, land use characteristics, atmospheric chemistry, and meteorological conditions—can lead to systematic differences in long-term exposure among populations living only short distances apart. Improving exposure characterization therefore requires dense monitoring strategies and spatial modeling …

The Atmospheric Effects On The Extratropical Transition Of Hurricane Sandy, Natalie Paone

Ocean Engineering and Marine Sciences Student Publications

• Hurricane Sandy formed in the Caribbean in late October 2012 and intensified to a Category 3 hurricane before making landfall in Cuba and later New Jersey (Blake et al., 2013). Sandy caused approximately $68.7 billion in damages and over 250 fatalities, making it one of the most impactful storms in U.S. history. 
• During extratropical transition (ET), tropical cyclones interact with midlatitude systems, leading to structural changes such as expansion of the wind field, development of frontal boundaries, and increased baroclinicity (Hart and Evans, 2001). Sandy is a key example of a hybrid cyclone where ET did not weaken impacts but …

Tiny Engineers: How Polycheateworms Can Extend Sedimentary Oxic Layers And Create Better Seagrass Habitats, Natalie Spohn

Ocean Engineering and Marine Sciences Student Publications

The Indian River Lagoon (IRL) is a shallow, well mixed estuary on the East Coast of Florida. Presently, the IRL is suffering eutrophication due to a cycle of harmful algal blooms (HABs) that deplete the water column of oxygen (2,5). Deposition of organic matter from HABs in the sediment leads to reduced sedimentary oxygen, continuing to support the cycle of eutrophication through benthic-pelagic coupling (1,5). Anaerobic sedimentary conditions can increase concentrations of ammonium and sulfide, leading to seagrass loss (3,4,6,7,10). Bioturbation by infauna can extend the oxic layer of sediments, promoting aerobic processes and helping to remove nitrogen and sulfur …

Ontogeny Of Microbial Community Structure In Shoal Grass Grown In Biochar-Amended Sediments, Sajeda Slhoub, Nicole Katz, Joey Ciocher, Jack Denvir, Jenisse Louis, Katelynn Zagami

Ocean Engineering and Marine Sciences Student Publications

The Indian River Lagoon (IRL) is one of the most biologically diverse estuaries in the United States and contributes over $55.4 billion annually to Florida’s economy. Since 2010, more than 52% of the IRL seagrass meadows have been lost, reducing both the ecological and the economic potential of this ecosystem. Biochar, a stable carbon material produced by pyrolysis, added to soil enhance organic productivity perhaps because of increased microbial activity in the soil (Lehmann et al., 2017). Our study evaluates the use of biochar to grow resilient strains of seagrass for ecosystem restoration in the IRL.

N.A.U.T.I.L.U.S.: Natural Aquaculture Using Technology In Living Underwater Systems, Joey Ciocher, Abby Vallejo, Will Marble, Martin Pham, Roger Jiang

Ocean Engineering and Marine Sciences Student Publications

Marine protected areas (MPAs) are small subsets of marine ecosystems with limited to no access to exploitation to promote sustainability and growth of healthy populations of marine organisms. Factors that affect the performance of MPAs include Size, Age, Level of Protection, Enforcement and Compliance, Isolation and Connectivity, and Habitat Quality and Diversity.