Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology Commons^™

Droughtscape, Fall 2016, National Drought Mitigation Center

DroughtScape: Quarterly Newsletter of the National Drought Mitigation Center (2007–2023)

Contents

NDMC welcome two to team

Third quarter drought summary: Drought still spreading

Third quarter drought impacts: It was a hot, dry summer

Drought management framework for Africa approved

MENA region update

US Virgin Islands one step closer to its own drought monitor

Montana looks to improve watershed resilience

Tournament tackles hazards

Web tool will help officials make drought-related decisions

Dry Horizons launches

Measuring Landfill Methane Emissions Using Satellite And Ground Data, Madjid Delkash, Bowen Zhou, Ramesh P. Singh

Mathematics, Physics, and Computer Science Faculty Articles and Research

Landfill methane emissions (LME) vary in short periods depending upon the meteorological and atmospheric conditions. In this paper, coupling the Atmospheric InfraRed Sounder (AIRS) with the tracer dilution method (TDM) is proposed during unmeasured emission days to have a better annual estimation of the LME. Some assumptions were made to develop this proposed model. The atmospheric model Advanced Regional Prediction System (ARPS) was employed to evaluate assumptions made during emission estimation using the proposed technique. Methane emissions of a landfill for 13 days during 2011–2013 were measured by the TDM and filtered to remove unreliable data. Then, the filtered data …

Climate Change Impacts On Freshwater Wetland Hydrology And Vegetation Cover Cycling Along A Regional Aridity Gradient, Philip A. Fay, Glenn R. Guntenspergen, Jennifer H. Olker, W. Carter Johnson

Natural Resource Management Faculty Publications

Global mean temperature may increase up to 6°C by the end of this century and together with precipitation change may steepen regional aridity gradients. The hydrology, productivity, and ecosystem services from freshwater wetlands depend on their future water balance. We simulated the hydrology and vegetation dynamics of wetland complexes in the North American Prairie Pothole Region with the WETLANDSCAPE model. Simulations for 63 precipitation × temperature combinations spanning 6°C warming and −20% to +20% annual precipitation change at 19 locations along a mid-continental aridity gradient showed that aridity explained up to 99% of the variation in wetland stage and hydroperiod …

Changing Trends In Wave Heights In The U.S. Mid-Atlantic Region, Hillary Lane

Civil & Environmental Engineering Theses & Dissertations

The pace and effects of climate change are an area of constant focus for coastal engineers as evolving patterns in the atmosphere worldwide affect the oceans and coasts on a regional and global scale. Surface waves respond to changing wind patterns both locally and from propagating swell, and the difficulty in predicting future wind patterns is well-established. Expectations that climate change will result in more frequent and intense coastal storms and consequently greater wave heights in the North Atlantic are still unrealized, and recent forecasts from a variety of atmosphere-ocean coupled global climate models instead predict decreasing wave heights through …

Coastal Groundwater Watch: A Citizen Science Project - Report No. 477, Alex Manda, Thomas Allen

Political Science & Geography Faculty Publications

The goals of this study were to utilize citizen scientists in groundwater research in a coastal community where groundwater plays a large role in sustainable water resources management, and assess the extent of groundwater and marine inundation in response to future sea-level rise scenarios. A total of 7 citizen scientists participated in the study by measuring water levels from 15 groundwater monitoring wells using water level meters once a week over a 10-week period. Automated water level loggers were deployed in three of the same wells to assess the quality of the data collected by the citizen scientists. Additional water …

The Effects Of Sub-Lethal Predation On The Reproductive Output Of Acanthaster Planci (Crown-Of-Thorns Starfish), Emily Mucha

Independent Study Project (ISP) Collection

Wide-scale declines in live coral cover have been observed throughout history. Modern day coral populations face a multitude of environmental disturbances, however one of the most devastating to the reefs in the Indo-Pacific is the crown-of-thorns starfish (Acanthaster planci), which feeds on the tissues of live corals. The rate at which these individuals feed combined with the explosion of populations in times of outbreak have been seen to exert some of the biggest pressures on coral reefs to date. Following recent episodes of crown-of-thorns starfish (COTS) outbreaks, research on the organism has become increasingly prevalent on the scientific …

The Effects Of Sub-Lethal Predation On The Reproductive Output Of Acanthaster Planci (Crown-Of-Thorns Starfish), Emily Mucha

Independent Study Project (ISP) Collection

Wide-scale declines in live coral cover have been observed throughout history. Modern day coral populations face a multitude of environmental disturbances, however one of the most devastating to the reefs in the Indo-Pacific is the crown-of-thorns starfish (Acanthaster planci), which feeds on the tissues of live corals. The rate at which these individuals feed combined with the explosion of populations in times of outbreak have been seen to exert some of the biggest pressures on coral reefs to date. Following recent episodes of crown-of-thorns starfish (COTS) outbreaks, research on the organism has become increasingly prevalent on the scientific …

Alongcoast Structure And Interannual Variability Of Seasonal Midshelf Water Properties And Velocity In The Northern California Current System, B. Hickey, S. Geier, N. Kachel, S. Ramp, P. Kosro, Thomas Connolly

Faculty Publications

Moored sensors were maintained for ∼5 years on the northern California Current System (CCS) midshelf. The alongcoast sensor array spanned the area of influence of the plume from the Columbia River, several submarine canyons, as well as a coastal promontory where the equatorward coastal jet frequently separates from the shelf. Upwelling-favorable wind stress magnitude decreases poleward by more than a factor of three over the latitudinal range and shelf width varies by a factor of two. In spite of the alongcoast structure in setting, both seasonal and interannual patterns in subsurface layer water properties were remarkably similar at all sites. …

Distributions Of Euphausia Superba, Euphausia Crystallorophias, And Pleuragramma Antarcticum With Correlations To Environmental Variables In The Western Ross Sea, Antarctica, Linnea Brynn Davis

OES Theses and Dissertations

Antarctic krill (Euphausia superba), crystal krill (Euphausia crystallorophias), and Antarctic silverfish (Pleuragramma antarcticum) are key mid-trophic level species in the Ross Sea food web that provide connectivity between primary production and the upper trophic levels. Distributions of these species were constructed from net-based and acoustic observations collected in the western Ross Sea from 1988-2004. Distributions of environmental conditions in the Ross Sea were obtained from a high-resolution circulation model (temperature, mixed layer depth, surface speed) and satellite-derived observations (chlorophyll, sea ice cover). These distributions were analyzed with a range of statistical methods to determine …

Potential Impacts Of Climate Change On Photochemistry Of Zostera Marina L., Billur Celebi

OES Theses and Dissertations

Seagrasses account for approximately 10% of the ocean’s total carbon storage, although photosynthesis of seagrasses is carbon limited at today’s oceanic pH. Therefore, increasing atmospheric CO₂ concentration, which results in ocean acidification/carbonation, is predicted to have a positive impact on seagrass productivity. Previous studies have confirmed the positive influence of increasing CO₂ on photosynthesis and survival of the temperate eelgrass Zostera marina L., but the acclimation of photoprotective mechanisms in this context has not been characterized. This study aimed to quantify the long-term impacts of ocean acidification on photochemical control mechanisms that promote photosynthesis while simultaneously protecting …

Lessons From The Past: Unfolding The Dynamics Among Climate, Balkan Landscapes, And Humans Over The Past Millennium, Charuta J. Kulkarni

Dissertations, Theses, and Capstone Projects

The primary objective of this doctoral dissertation is to reconstruct the environmental history of the Central Balkans (Serbia) over the past millennium utilizing biological proxies (pollen, spores, and charcoal), geochemical signals through X-ray fluorescence (XRF), statistical analyses, and atomic mass spectrometry (AMS) ¹⁴C chronology. This dissertation establishes the first chronological framework for vegetation-landscape changes in Serbia and discusses the role of humans and climate as underlying processes.

Chapter 1 discusses the background and the nature of the research problem followed by the extensive literature review on the topic of the Holocene climate and paleoecology. The state of Holocene paleoecology …

Status Of Scientific Knowledge, Recovery Progress, And Future Research Directions For The Gulf Sturgeon, Acipenser Oxyrinchus Desotoi Vladykov, 1955, K.J. Sulak, F. Parauka, W. T. Slack, R. T. Ruth, M. T. Randall, K. Luke, M. E. Price

United States Geological Survey: Staff Publications

The Gulf Sturgeon, Acipenser oxyrinchus desotoi, is an anadromous species of Acipenseridae and native to North America. It currently inhabits and spawns in the upper reaches of seven natal rivers along the northern coast of the Gulf of Mexico from the Suwannee River, Florida, to the Pearl River, Louisiana, during spring to autumn. Next to the Alligator Gar (Atractosteus spatula), the Gulf Sturgeon is currently the largest fish species occurring in U.S. Gulf Coast rivers, attaining a length of 2.35 m and weights exceeding 135 kg, but historically attained a substantially larger size. Historically, the spawning populations existed in additional …

Cartographic Potential Of New Technologies: Hu:Care, William B. Moore

September 29, 2016: Adaptive Structures and Innovative Solutions

No abstract provided.

Agenda, Hampton Roads Sea Level Rise/Flooding Adaptation Forum, Hr Adaptation Forum

September 29, 2016: Adaptive Structures and Innovative Solutions

Agenda for the Hampton Roads Sea Level Rise/Flooding Adaptation Forum on September 29, 2016 at the Hampton University Conference Room 204, the Bemis Laboratories, 713 Orchard Road, Hampton, VA.

On The Importance Of Stratigraphic Control For Vertebrate Fossil Sites In Channel Islands National Park, California, Usa: Examples From New Mammuthus Finds On San Miguel Island, Jeffrey S. Pigati, Daniel R. Muhs, John P. Mcgeehin

United States Geological Survey: Staff Publications

Quaternary vertebrate fossils, most notably mammoth remains, are relatively common on the northern Channel Islands of California. Well-preserved cranial, dental, and appendicular elements of Mammuthus exilis (pygmy mammoth) and Mammuthus columbi (Columbian mammoth) have been recovered from hundreds of localities on the islands during the past half-century or more. Despite this paleontological wealth, the geologic context of the fossils is described in the published literature only briefly or not at all, which has hampered the interpretation of associated 14C ages and reconstruction of past environmental conditions. We recently discovered a partial tusk, several large bones, and a tooth enamel plate …

Investigating The Spatial Distribution And Effects Of Nearshore Topography On Acropora Cervicornis Abundance In Southeast Florida, Nicole D'Antonio, David S. Gilliam, Brian K. Walker

Marine & Environmental Sciences Faculty Articles

Dense Acropora cervicornis aggregations, or patches, have been documented within nearshore habitats in Southeast Florida (SE FL) despite close proximity to numerous anthropogenic stressors and subjection to frequent natural disturbance events. Limited information has been published concerning the distribution and abundance of A. cervicornis outside of these known dense patches. The first goal of this study was to conduct a spatially extensive and inclusive survey (9.78 km²) to determine whether A. cervicornis distribution in the nearshore habitat of SE FL was spatially uniform or clustered. The second goal was to investigate potential relationships between broad-scale seafloor topography and …

The Changshu Declaration On Wetlands, R. Eugene Turner, Jos T. A. Verhoeven, Ania Grobicki, Jenny Davis, Shuqing An

Faculty Publications

No abstract provided.

Assessing Aquatic System Metabolism Response To Disturbance, Traci Carmen Hudson

Student Theses and Dissertations

Until recently, agricultural drainage ditches and urban stream systems have been underrepresented within aquatic research studies. This underrepresentation has led to gaps in knowledge within the area of ecosystem structure and function, characteristics of agriculture and urban stream stressors, and management strategies for those streams. Many of the factors (increased nutrients, changes to the quantity and composition of organic carbon inputs, light alterations, and sedimentation) that impair water bodies associated with agricultural drainage and urbanization also influence stream processes. Stream organic matter production and consumption measured as ecosystem metabolism, is a fundamental process comprised of gross primary production (GPP) and …

Increasing Shipping Traffic Through The Bering Strait: Challenges Of International Policy In A Rapidly Changing Climate And Managing Impacts To Regional Cetacean Populations, Laura Morse

HCNSO Student Capstones

The Arctic region is experiencing growth in marine traffic as seasonal ice conditions shift to longer periods of open water and vessel improvements that have allowed for transit in heavier ice conditions. Regionally, Russia is improving existing transportation infrastructure to support increased traffic along the Northern Sea Route. As a result of these and other factors, shipping traffic is increasing through the Bering Strait and Bering Sea. Regulating traffic in these areas is more complex than most other areas in US waters given the presence of an international strait subject to international regulation through the International Maritime Organization. The US …

Water Quality Monitoring At Impaired Sites On The Cache River, Ar, Usa, Molly Elaine Kennon-Lacy

Student Theses and Dissertations

Cache River Watershed, AR has several impairments, including: dissolved lead (Pb) and copper (Cu), and total dissolved solids (TDS). Eight sites were monitored monthly measuring: pH, conductivity, DO, total suspended solids (TSS), TDS, turbidity, hardness, dissolved and total nutrients and metals (Pb and Cu), to add to ADEQ’s database. Flow was measured to determine if there was a relationship between measured parameters and periods of low or high flow. Filtration size (0.45 vs 0.20 µm) was compared to conclude if using different size filters on water samples affected concentrations of metals in water. Bioassays were performed using aquatic organisms on …

Future Changes In Propagating And Non-Propagating Diurnal Rainfall Over East Asia, Wan-Ru Huang, Shih-Yu (Simon) Wang

Plants, Soils, and Climate Faculty Publications

The characteristics of diurnal rainfall in the East Asian continent consist of a propagating regime over the Yangtze River and a non-propagating regime in southeast China. Simulations of these two diurnal rainfall regimes by 18 CMIP5 models were evaluated from the historical experiment of 1981–2005. The evaluation led to the identification of one model, the CMCC-CM that replicated the key characteristics of diurnal rainfall regimes including the propagation of moisture convergence. Using the CMCC-CM to assess the future (2076–2100) change of diurnal evolution and propagation projected by the RCP4.5 experiment, it was found that propagating diurnal rainfall will enhance and …

Dynamics Of Orographic Gravity Waves Observed In The Mesosphere Over Auckland Islands During The Deep Propagating Gravity Wave Experiment (Deepwave), Stephen D. Eckermann, Dave Broutman, Jun Ma, James D. Doyle, Pierre-Dominique Pautet, Michael J. Taylor, Katrina Bossert, Bifford P. Williams, David C. Fritts, Ronald B. Smith

Publications

On 14 July 2014 during the Deep Propagating Gravity Wave Experiment (DEEPWAVE), aircraft remote sensing instruments detected large-amplitude gravity wave oscillations within mesospheric airglow and sodium layers at altitudes z ~ 78–83 km downstream of the Auckland Islands, located ~1000 km south of Christchurch, New Zealand. A high-altitude reanalysis and a three-dimensional Fourier gravity wave model are used to investigate the dynamics of this event. At 0700 UTC when the first observations were made, surface flow across the islands’ terrain generated linear three-dimensional wave fields that propagated rapidly to z ~ 78 km, where intense breaking occurred in a narrow …

An Exploration Of Wind Stress Calculation Techniques In Hurricane Storm Surge Modeling, Kyra M. Bryant, Muhammad Akbar

Mechanical and Manufacturing Engineering Faculty Research

As hurricanes continue to threaten coastal communities, accurate storm surge forecasting remains a global priority. Achieving a reliable storm surge prediction necessitates accurate hurricane intensity and wind field information. The wind field must be converted to wind stress, which represents the air-sea momentum flux component required in storm surge and other oceanic models. This conversion requires a multiplicative drag coefficient for the air density and wind speed to represent the air-sea momentum exchange at a given location. Air density is a known parameter and wind speed is a forecasted variable, whereas the drag coefficient is calculated using an empirical correlation. …

Breakdown Of Itcz-Like Pv Patterns, Ajay Raghavendra, Thomas A. Guinn

Beyond: Undergraduate Research Journal

The Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) is a zonal belt of intense convection, responsible for the genesis of over 80% of all tropical cyclones. This region of intense diabatic heating and shear results in a maximum of Ertel's potential vorticity (PV) meeting Rayleigh's necessary condition for barotropic instability. A fundamental issue is understanding the necessary precursor events leading to the breakdown of the ITCZ and subsequent formation of tropical cyclones. Our research examines the non-linear PV dynamics of the breakdown of both finite-length and infinite-length vorticity strips of varying widths and shapes, simulating the ITCZ found near the tropical eastern Pacific …

Hydroclimatic Contrasts Over Asian Monsoon Areas And Linkages To Tropical Pacific Ssts, Hai Xu, Jianghu Lan, Enguo Sheng, Bin Liu, Keke Yu, Yuanda Ye, Zhengguo Shi, Peng Cheng, Xulong Wang, Xinying Zhou, Kevin M. Yeager

Earth and Environmental Sciences Faculty Publications

Knowledge of spatial and temporal hydroclimatic differences is critical in understanding climatic mechanisms. Here we show striking hydroclimatic contrasts between northern and southern parts of the eastern margin of the Tibetan Plateau (ETP), and those between East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) and Indian summer monsoon (ISM) areas during the past ~2,000 years. During the Medieval Period, and the last 100 to 200 years, the southern ETP (S-ETP) area was generally dry (on average), while the northern ETP (N-ETP) area was wet. During the Little Ice Age (LIA), hydroclimate over S-ETP areas was wet, while that over N-ETP area was dry …

Drought In A Human-Modified World: Reframing Drought Definitions, Understanding, And Analysis Approaches, Anne F. Van Loon, Kerstin Stahl, Giuliano Di Baldassarre, Julian Clark4, Sally Rangecroft, Niko Wanders, Tom Gleeson, Albert I. J. M. Van Dijk, Lena M. Tallaksen, Jamie Hannaford, Remko Uijlenhoet, Adriaan J. Teuling, David M. Hannah, Justin Sheffield, Mark D. Svoboda, Boud Verbeiren, Thorsten Wagener, Henny A. J. Van Lanen

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

In the current human-modified world, or Anthropocene, the state of water stores and fluxes has become dependent on human as well as natural processes.Water deficits (or droughts) are the result of a complex interaction between meteorological anomalies, land surface processes, and human inflows, outflows, and storage changes. Our current inability to adequately analyse and manage drought in many places points to gaps in our understanding and to inadequate data and tools. The Anthropocene requires a new framework for drought definitions and research. Drought definitions need to be revisited to explicitly include human processes driving and modifying soil moisture drought and …

Estimation Of Temporal Variations In Path-Averaged Atmospheric Refractive Index Gradient From Time-Lapse Imagery, Santasri Basu, Jack E. Mccrae, Steven T. Fiorino, Jared Przelomski

Faculty Publications

The sea level vertical refractive index gradient in the U.S. Standard Atmosphere model is −2.7×10⁻⁸  m⁻¹ at 500 nm. At any particular location, the actual refractive index gradient varies due to turbulence and local weather conditions. An imaging experiment was conducted to measure the temporal variability of this gradient. A tripod mounted digital camera captured images of a distant building every minute. Atmospheric turbulence caused the images to wander quickly, randomly, and statistically isotropically and changes in the average refractive index gradient along the path caused the images to move vertically and more slowly. The temporal variations of …

Quantifying The Toxicity Of 1-Methylnaphthalene To The Shallow-Water Coral, Porites Divaricata, For Use In The Target Lipid Model, Nicholas Turner

HCNSO Student Theses and Dissertations

The proximity of coral reefs to coastal urban areas and shipping lanes predisposes corals to petroleum pollution from multiple sources. Previous research has evaluated petroleum toxicity to coral using a variety of methodologies, including monitoring effects of acute and chronic spills, in situ exposures, and ex situ exposures with both adult and larval stage corals. Variability in toxicant, bioassay conditions, species and other methodological disparities among studies prevents comprehensive conclusions regarding the toxicity of hydrocarbons to corals. This research evaluated the 48-hour toxicity of 1-methylnaphthalene to Porites divaricata using a continuous-flow passive dosing system. The range-finding exposure evaluated the dosing …

Tibetan Plateau Geladaindong Black Carbon Ice Core Record (1843–1982): Recent Increases Due To Higher Emissions And Lower Snow Accumulation, Matthew Jenkins, Susan Kaspari, Kang Shi-Chang, Bjorn Grigholm, Paul A. Mayewski

Student Published Works

Black carbon (BC) deposited on snow and glacier surfaces can reduce albedo and lead to accelerated melt. An ice core recovered from Guoqu glacier on Mt. Geladaindong and analyzed using a Single Particle Soot Photometer (SP2) provides the first long-term (1843–1982) record of BC from the central Tibetan Plateau. Post 1940 the record is characterized by an increased occurrence of years with above average BC, and the highest BC values of the record. The BC increase in recent decades is likely caused by a combination of increased emissions from regional BC sources, and a reduction in snow accumulation. Guoqu glacier …

Icelandic Fisheries: Scenario Planning For Climate Change, Tara Sorrels

Mahurin Honors College Capstone Experience/Thesis Projects

This study aimed to develop an understanding of how a scenario planning process could be used to assist businesses to adapt to climate change. The focus of this study was on the Icelandic fishing industry since Iceland is experiencing firsthand climate change impacts. Mitigation strategies are the main focus in climate change research, but this study focused on a possible adaptation method that requires changing management practices in order to reduce the impact of climate change on the economy. Tours of Icelandic fisheries and interviews with individuals within the Icelandic fishing industry were conducted to assess the current adaptive capacity …