Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology Commons^™

Daily Meteorological Report, Cercom, Molloy University, John Tanacredi Ph.D., Kyle F. Maurelli

CERCOM Reports

Meteorological Methodologies and Equipment: - Davis 6152 Wireless Vantage Pro2 Weather Station - USGS Tide Gauge - NOAA Rain (precipitation) Gauge - Hand held salt water thermometer - Yard stick - NOAA anemometer CERCOM’s Research Assistant Mr. Kyle Maurelli is responsible for maintenance of co-op NWS weather station at CERCOM and submission of daily weather data to NOAA-NWS database 365 days per year.

Impact Of Sea Surface Temperature And Surface Air Temperature On Maximizing Typhoon Rainfall: Focusing On Typhoon Maemi In Korea, Jeonghyeon Choi, Jeonghoon Lee, Sangdan Kim

Civil and Environmental Engineering Faculty Publications

In this study, the effects of surface air temperature (SAT) and sea surface temperature (SST) changes on typhoon rainfall maximization are analysed. Based on the numerically reproduced Typhoon Maemi, this study tried to maximize the typhoon-induced rainfall by increasing the amount of saturated water vapour in the atmosphere and the amount of water vapour entering the typhoon. Using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, which is one of the regional climate models (RCMs), the rainfall simulated by WRF while increasing the SAT and SST to various sizes at initial conditions and boundary conditions of the model was analysed. As …

Carbon Dioxide Measurement In Irish Blanket Peatlands: An Assessment Of Pool-Soil Flux Variability, Mariya Radomski, Alan Gilmer, Vivienne Byers, Eugene Mcgovern

Articles

Peatlands have been recognised as having a significant role in the mediation of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) levels with direct implications for global climate change. Longitudinal in situ measurement systems for CO2 concentrations in blanket peatland ecosystems are difficult to implement where the nature of terrestrial–aquatic connectivity and hydrodynamics have a significant effect on the carbon cycle. The need for greater data on CO2 concentrations and flux monitoring in these settings has been well recognised. However, applying the most appropriate monitoring approach presents a special challenge. This paper sets out the development of a direct method for field based longitudinal …

The Evolution, Propagation, And Spread Of Flash Drought In The Central United States During 2012, Jeffrey B. Basara, Jordan I. Christian, Ryann A. Wakefield, Jason A. Otkin, Eric H. Hunt, David P. Brown

School of Natural Resources: Faculty Publications

During 2012, flash drought developed and subsequently expanded across large areas of the Central United States (US) with severe impacts to overall water resources and warm-season agricultural production. Recent efforts have yielded a methodology to detect and quantify flash drought occurrence and rate of intensification from climatological datasets via the standardized evaporative stress ratio (SESR). This study utilizes the North American Regional Reanalysis and applied the SESR methodology to quantify the spatial and temporal development and expansion of flash drought conditions during 2012. Critical results include the identification of the flash drought epicenter and subsequent spread of flash drought conditions …

Role Of Sea Surface Temperatures In Forcing Circulation Anomalies Driving U.S. Great Plains Pluvial Years, Paul X. Flanagan, Jeffrey B. Basara, Jason C. Furtado, Elinor R. Martin, Xiangming Xiao

High Plains Regional Climate Center: Staff Publications

In the U.S. Great Plains (GP), diagnosing precipitation variability is key in developing an understanding of the present and future availability of water in the region. Building on previous work investigating U.S. GP pluvial years, this study usesERAtwentieth century (ERA-20C) reanalysis data to investigate key circulation anomalies driving GP precipitation anomalies during a subset of GP pluvial years (called in this paper Pattern pluvial years). With previous research showing links between tropical Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies and GP climate variability, this study diagnoses the key circulation anomalies through an analysis of SSTs and their influence on the atmosphere. …

Prehistoric Chaco Canyon, New Mexico: Importation Of Meat And Mmaize, Larry V. Benson, Deanna Grimstead, John R. Stein, David A. Rith, Terry L. Plowman

United States Geological Survey: Staff Publications

In a recent paper, Benson and Grimstead (2019) determined that only minimal amounts of maize could have been grown in Chaco Canyon due to its aridity, short growing season, and frequent summer flooding of the valley floor. In this paper it is shown that deer and rabbit densities within semiarid regions such as the Canyon are such that 2300 Canyon residents would eliminate essentially all small and large mammals within a year. This implies that food (meat and maize) must have been imported from one or more outlying areas to feed the Canyon's residential population. This would have entailed ~18,000 …

Chaco Canyon, New Mexico: A Caretaker City And A Pilgrimage Destination, Larry Benson, Deanna N. Grimstead, John R. Stein, David A. Roth, Terry I. Plowman

United States Geological Survey: Staff Publications

Some Southwestern archaeologists continue to ascribe to the hypothesis that Chaco was agriculturally productive to the point that it could support at least a few thousand full-time residents. This paper suggests an alternative hypothesis; i.e., Chaco was marginally productive and could only support a few hundred permanent residents. Isotopic analysis of mammal teeth found in trenches cut through platform mounds fronting Pueblo Bonito indicate the possibility that much of the meat consumed by Chacoan residents and visitors came from higher elevation sites bordering the San Juan Basin. We suggest that resident population estimates based on great house room numbers and …

Spatial Conservation Planning Under Uncertainty: Adapting To Climate Change Risks Using Modern Portfolio Theory, Mitchell J. Eaton, Simeon Yurek, Zulqarnain Haider, Julien Martin, Fred Johnson, Bradley J. Udell, Hadi Charkhgard, Changhyun Kwon

United States Geological Survey: Staff Publications

Climate change and urban growth impact habitats, species, and ecosystem services. To buffer against global change, an established adaptation strategy is designing protected areas to increase representation and complementarity of biodiversity features. Uncertainty regarding the scale and magnitude of landscape change complicates reserve planning and exposes decision makers to the risk of failing to meet conservation goals. Conservation planning tends to treat risk as an absolute measure, ignoring the context of the management problem and risk preferences of stakeholders. Application of risk management theory to conservation emphasizes the diversification of a portfolio of assets, with the goal of reducing the …

Improved Flow Frequency Techniques With Frequency-Based Storms And Bulletin 17c, Katherine M. Werner

United States Geological Survey: Water Reports and Publications

This paper summarizes the hydrologic evaluation performed by the United States Army Corps of Engineers (USACE), Omaha District as part of the Elkhorn Basin Flood Plain Management Services (FPMS) Flood Risk Identification Study. The Elkhorn Basin FPMS Study is a collaborative effort between the Nebraska Department of Natural Resources (NeDNR), the USACE, and the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) Region VII. The Elkhorn River is located in northeastern Nebraska, covers approximately 7,000 square miles, and includes 11 Federally Constructed Levees, 5 high hazard dams, and dozens of NFIP participating communities. Previous flood risk information in the basin was developed specific …

Life In Hampton Roads Survey Press Release #4: Neighborhood Flooding And Flood Insurance, Social Science Research Center, Old Dominion University

Life in Hampton Roads Survey Report

[Introductory paragraph]

Respondents were asked whether or not they own or are in the process of buying their home, rent, or have some other arrangement. Similar to past years, the majority of residents reported that they own or are in the process of buying their home (66.8%), marking the second highest percentage in the past five years, only behind last year’s percentage of 67.7. Another 28.6 percent indicated that they rent, while only 2.8 percent reported having another arrangement.

Odu Receives $3 Million For Resilience From Philanthropist Joan Brock, Noell Saunders

News Items

No abstract provided.

Effects Of Shoal Margin Collapses On The Morphodynamics Of A Sandy Estuary, M. R. Hiatt

Faculty Publications

Shoal margin collapses of several million cubic meters have occurred in the Western Scheldt estuary, the Netherlands, on average five times a year over the last decades. While these collapses involve significant volumes of material, their effect on the channel-shoal morphology is unknown. We hypothesize that collapses dynamicize the channel-shoal interactions, which could impact the ecological functioning, flood safety, and navigation in the estuary. The objective is to investigate how locations, probability, type, and volume of shoal margin collapse affect the channel-shoal dynamics. We implemented an empirically validated parameterization for shoal margin collapses and tested its effect on simulated estuary …

Great South Bay, Long Island, New York Summer Phytoplankton Identification & Monitoring Program, Cercom, Molloy University, John Tanacredi Ph.D., Kyle F. Maurelli

CERCOM Reports

Phytoplankton Collection Methodologies: 80 micron Plankton Tow Net with sample bottle attachment

Phytoplankton Protocol: 1.Gather Samples 2.Make one slide per sample 3.View slides using microscope connected with computer 4. Record findings using “ Row # “ and “ Colum letter “ 5. Record using “ Tally’s “ per species found within sample 6. Capture anything interesting “ Take Picture “ 7.Duplicate pictures taken 8.Make sure measurement of species found is taken 9. Email Jennifer Maucher at [email protected] , include pictures, questions and names of the species you “guess” you found.

A New Model For Lifting Condensation Levels Estimation, Nihad E. Daidzic

Aviation Department Publications

Knowledge of and the ability to predict lifting condensation levels (LCL) is important ingredient in weather predictions, cloud formation, planetary albedo and Earth’s energy balance. It is also essential topic in aviation safety and flight operations. In this article, we derive a new model of LCL and compare it to some older commonly-used models. This includes also the recently published Romps’ (2017) model. The new model presented here includes dependence, however weak, of the surface atmospheric pressure and the specific humidity on the LCL height and temperature. Such is not the case with widely used models and expressions by Espy …

Aviation Weather Products In General Aviation: Interpretability And Usability Research Trends, Jacqueline Mcsorley, Jayde King, Beth Blickensderfer

General Aviation Weather Display Interpretation

As a result of advances in weather forecasting and technology, today’s General Aviation (GA) pilots have access to a wealth of aviation weather information. During pre-flight planning, GA pilots may access weather radar images, satellite pictures, winds, and forecast maps. During flight, pilots can access in-cockpit weather displays, as well as, handheld portable weather devices. Despite the increasing advancement and accessibility of weather displays, there is limited research addressing the interpretability of both in-cockpit and preflight weather displays. This is particularly concerning considering that preflight planning and poor product interpretability have been cited as possible contributing factors for GA weather …

Usability Analysis Of Convective Sigmets, Jackie Mcsorley, Beth Blickensderfer

General Aviation Weather Display Interpretation

• Introduction
• Methods
• Results

○ Interface Analysis: System Usability Scale

○ Workload Analysis: NASA-TLX

• Discussion
• Current Investigations

Preflight Weather Worksheet, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University

Weather Training Modules

Preflight Weather Worksheet

• Big Picture
• Hazards
• Visibility

Climate Policy Implications Of Nonlinear Decline Of Arctic Land Permafrost And Other Cryosphere Elements, Dmitry Yumashev, Chris Hope, Kevin Schaefer, Kathrin Riemann-Campe, Fernando Iglesias-Suarez, Elchin Jafarov, Eleanor J. Burke, Paul J. Young, Yasin Elshorbany, Gail Whiteman

USF St. Petersburg Campus Faculty Publications

Arctic feedbacks accelerate climate change through carbon releases from thawing permafrost and higher solar absorption from reductions in the surface albedo, following loss of sea ice and land snow. Here, we include dynamic emulators of complex physical models in the integrated assessment model PAGE-ICE to explore nonlinear transitions in the Arctic feedbacks and their subsequent impacts on the global climate and economy under the Paris Agreement scenarios. The permafrost feedback is increasingly positive in warmer climates, while the albedo feedback weakens as the ice and snow melt. Combined, these two factors lead to significant increases in the mean discounted economic …

Characterizing Freshwater Phytoplankton Dynamics With Electro-Optical Remote Sensing, Michael Sayers

Dissertations, Master's Theses and Master's Reports

Freshwater lakes are an important component contributing to ecosystem health and biodiversity on local, regional, and global scales. And while lakes only represent <5% of the global surface area, they are often very productive systems which contribute significantly to carbon cycling dynamics and freshwater fish production on a number of spatial scales. Due to the remote location and sheer size of some of these lakes it has proven difficult to adequately document changes in water quality. Significant challenges exist to adequately monitor water quality, and in particular phytoplankton dynamics, over large spatial and temporal scales using traditional in situ methods. Satellite electro-optical remote sensing offers a potential tool to provide better characterization of phytoplankton dynamics for a variety of freshwater systems. This work resulted in an approach to quantify global summer phytoplankton abundance using a newly developed remote sensing derived chlorophyll-a product. This product was also used in conjunction with a newly created carbon fixation model to assess global freshwater phytoplankton production which provided new insights into the role freshwater systems play in the …

Influence Of Land Cover And Soil Moisture Based Brown Ocean Effect On An Extreme Rainfall Event From A Louisiana Gulf Coast Tropical System, Udaysankar S. Nair, Eric Rappin, Emily Foshee, Warren Smith, Roger A. Pielke Sr., Rezaul Mahmood, Jonathan L. Case, Clay B. Blankenship, Marshall Shepherd, Joseph A. Santanello, Dev Niyogi

High Plains Regional Climate Center: Staff Publications

Extreme flooding over southern Louisiana in mid-August of 2016 resulted from an unusual tropical low that formed and intensified over land. We used numerical experiments to highlight the role of the ‘Brown Ocean’ effect (where saturated soils function similar to a warm ocean surface) on intensification and it’s modulation by land cover change. A numerical modeling experiment that successfully captured the flood event (control) was modified to alter moisture availability by converting wetlands to open water, wet croplands, and dry croplands. Storm evolution in the control experiment with wet antecedent soils most resembles tropical lows that form and intensify over …

The Total Solar Eclipse Of 2017: Meteorological Observations From A Statewide Mesonet And Atmospheric Profiling Systems, Rezaul Mahmood, Megan Schargorodski, Eric Rappin, Melissa Griffin, Patrick Collins, Kevin Knupp, Andrew Quilligan, Ryan Wade, Kevin Cary, Stuart Foster

High Plains Regional Climate Center: Staff Publications

A total solar eclipse traversed 37 the continental United States on August 21, 2017. It 38 was the first such event in 99 years and provided a rare opportunity to observe the atmospheric response from a variety of instrumented observational platforms. This paper discusses the high quality observations collected by the Kentucky Mesonet (www.kymesonet.org), a research-grade meteorological and climatological observation network consisting of 72 stations and measuring air temperature, precipitation, relative humidity, solar radiation, wind speed, and wind direction. The network samples the atmosphere, for most variables, every three seconds and then calculates and records observations every five minutes. During …

Irrigation Impacts On Minimum And Maximum Surface Moist Enthalpy In The Central Great Plains Of The Usa, Tianyi Zhang, Rezaul Mahmood, Xiaomao Lin, Roger A. Pielke Sr.

High Plains Regional Climate Center: Staff Publications

Agricultural activities notably alter weather and climate including near-surface heat content. However, past research primarily focused on dry bulb temperature without considering the role of water vapor (dew point temperature) on surface air heat content. When using dry bulb temperature trends to assess these changes, for example, not including concurrent trends in absolute humidity can lead to errors in the actual rate of warming or cooling. Here we examined minimum and maximum surface moist enthalpy, which can be expressed as “equivalent temperature.” Using hourly climate data in the Central Great Plains (Nebraska and Kansas) from 1990 to 2014, the averages …

Enhancing Acis Maps: Increasing Usability Through A Gis Portal, Natalie Umphlett, Warren Pettee, Bill Sorensen, Crystal J. Stiles

High Plains Regional Climate Center: Staff Publications

The High Plains Regional Climate Center (HPRCC) is one of six NOAA Regional Climate Centers (RCCs) in the United States that aims to provide timely climate data and information to the public for cost-effective decision-making. As part of a three-tiered approach to climate services, the RCCs address needs on the national, regional, state, and local scales for a variety of sectors including agriculture, energy, natural resource management, research, transportation, and water resources. Working together, the RCCs develop and disseminate a wide range of valueadded climate products and services.

One of the HPRCC’s most popular products is the Applied Climate Information …

Conducting A Drought-Specific Thira (Threat And Hazard Identification And Risk Assessment): A Powerful Tool For Integrating All-Hazard Mitigation And Drought Planning Efforts To Increase Drought Mitigation Quality, Elliot Wickham, Deborah J. Bathke, Tarik Abdel-Monem, Tonya K. Bernadt, Denise Bulling, Lisa M. Pytlikzillig, Crystal J. Stiles, Nicole Wall

High Plains Regional Climate Center: Staff Publications

In the United States, drought is the second costliest natural disaster, which leads to the need for increased drought mitigation efforts over time. However, drought planning has lagged behind other hazard mitigation efforts, which is likely due to the lack of a national drought planning policy. Although the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) requires all jurisdictions have a hazard mitigation plan (HMP) to receive pre-disaster mitigation funds, drought has only recently been a requirement in HMPs. In 2012, Nebraska witnessed its worse drought in recent history, which exposed the gaps in drought planning effectiveness at all jurisdictional levels. To address …

Looking Past, Looking Forward: America's National Parks, Archaeology And Climate Change, Rachel Marie Blumhardt

Undergraduate Theses, Professional Papers, and Capstone Artifacts

America’s National Parks are rich with cultural history, flora, fauna and some of nature’s most impressive landscapes. As climate change continues to accelerate, these parks and their cultural and natural resources are being threatened. In this project, I will present a colorful, informational booklet that concentrates on 4 specific parks: Yellowstone National Park, National Park of American Samoa, Glacier Bay National Park and Mesa Verde National Park. I will focus on the archaeology and cultural significance of these parks, while also examining the ways that climate change is putting these, and other associated assets of the parks, at risk. I …

Spatial Conservation Planning Under Uncertainty: Adapting To Climate Change Risks Using Modern Portfolio Theory, Mitchell J. Eaton, Simeon Yurek, Zulqarnain Haider, Julien Martin, Fred A. Johnson, Bradley J. Udell, Hadi Charkhgard, Changhyun Kwon

United States Geological Survey: Staff Publications

Climate change and urban growth impact habitats, species, and ecosystem services. To buffer against global change, an established adaptation strategy is designing protected areas to increase representation and complementarity of biodiversity features. Uncertainty regarding the scale and magnitude of landscape change complicates reserve planning and exposes decision makers to the risk of failing to meet conservation goals. Conservation planning tends to treat risk as an absolute measure, ignoring the context of the management problem and risk preferences of stakeholders. Application of risk management theory to conservation emphasizes the diversification of a portfolio of assets, with the goal of reducing the …

A Recent Systematic Increase In Vapor Pressure Deficit Over Tropical South America, Armineh Barkhordarian, Bahareh Saatchi, Ali Behrangi, Paul C. Loikith, Carlos R. Mechoso

Geography Faculty Publications and Presentations

We show a recent increasing trend in Vapor Pressure Deficit (VPD) over tropical South America in dry months with values well beyond the range of trends due to natural variability of the climate system defined in both the undisturbed Preindustrial climate and the climate over 850–1850 perturbed with natural external forcing. This trend is systematic in the southeast Amazon but driven by episodic droughts (2005, 2010, 2015) in the northwest, with the highest recoded VPD since 1979 for the 2015 drought. The univariant detection analysis shows that the observed increase in VPD cannot be explained by greenhouse-gas-induced (GHG) radiative warming …

Predictability Of Non-Phase-Locked Baroclinic Tides In The Caribbean Sea, Edward D. Zaron

Civil and Environmental Engineering Faculty Publications and Presentations

Abstract.

The predictability of the sea surface height expression of baroclinic tides is examined with 96h forecasts produced by the AMSEAS operational forecast model during 2013–2014. The phase-locked tide, both barotropic and baroclinic, is identified by harmonic analysis of the 2-year record and found to agree well with observations from tide gauges and satellite altimetry within the Caribbean Sea. The non-phase-locked baroclinic tide, which is created by timevariablemesoscalestratificationandcurrents,maybeidentified from residual sea level anomalies (SLAs) near the tidal frequencies. The predictability of the non-phase-locked tide is assessed by measuring the difference between a forecast – centeredat T+36, T+60,or T+84h–andthemodel’slater verifying analysis …

Classification Of Aerosol Population Type And Cloud Condensation Nuclei Properties In A Coastal California Littoral Environment Using An Unsupervised Cluster Model, Samuel A. Atwood, Sonia M. Kreidenweis, Paul J. Demott, Markus D. Petters, Gavin Cornwell, Andrew C. Martin, Kathryn A. Moore

Geography Faculty Publications and Presentations

Aerosol particle and cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) measurements from a littoral location on the northern coast of California at Bodega Bay Marine Laboratory (BML) are presented for approximately six weeks of observations during the boreal winter–spring as part of the CalWater-2015 field campaign. The nature and variability of surface (marine boundary layer, MBL) aerosol populations were evaluated by classifying observations into periods of similar aerosol and meteorological characteristics using an unsupervised cluster model to derive distinct littoral aerosol population types and link them to source regions. Such classifications support efforts to understand the impact of changing aerosol properties on precipitation …

Winter Snow Depth In Arctic Alaska Results In Complex Changes In Caribou Forage Quality, Jessica C. Richert

Electronic Theses and Dissertations

Caribou (Rangifer tarandus) rely on the short growing season for much of their annual nutrition, making them susceptible to even small changes in forage quantity and quality. Body condition in the summer and fall is linked to winter survival rates and fecundity in cows, critical factors in the robustness of caribou populations. Due to a warmer, wetter climate, snowfall is predicted to increase over Alaska’s North Slope in the next several decades. Deeper snow results in higher soil temperatures, allowing microbial mineralization of nitrogen to continue throughout the winter and increasing the availability of nitrogen for plants in spring and …