Systems Science Commons^™

Hitl Ai For Digital Transformation In Healthcare, Ntando S. Sibanda, Petronella Muziti, Priscilla Mataure

African Conference on Information Systems and Technology

Limited labor capacity, disjointed information flows and delays in clinical decision-making are among the ongoing issues that primary health care (PHC) systems in resource-constrained settings must deal with. These issues limit service delivery and impede efforts to undergo digital transformation. This study investigates how improved decision support at the primary care level can facilitate incremental digital transformation through human-in-the-loop (HITL) artificial intelligence (AI). In order to identify system gaps, design a context-sensitive HITL AI prototype and assess its viability, usability and integration within standard PHC workflows, the study employs a design-based implementation research approach that incorporates qualitative interviews, workflow observations …

Graph-Based Machine Learning For Multivariate Time Series Prediction In Scientific Domains: Streamflow Forecasting And Solar Flare Prediction, Kishore Ragul Alagarsamy

All Graduate Reports and Creative Projects, Fall 2023 to Present

Machine learning methods applied to multivariate time series data have emerged as powerful tools across a range of scientific domains. This report examines two distinct application areas in which such methods yield actionable predictive insights: hydrological streamflow forecasting and solar flare prediction in space weather.

In the domain of streamflow forecasting, a Two-Graph Spatio-Temporal Graph Neural Network (Two-Graph STGNN) was developed to predict river discharge across a 20-station network in the Upper Colorado River Basin. The architecture separates hydrological and meteorological feature streams into two complementary graph representations and fuses them through a learned attention mechanism. Systematic evaluation across 23 …

Emergency Risk Dispatch For Integrated Electricity-Heat Systems Under Typhoon Disasters, Tongchui Liu, Lian Tan, Dongxuan Bao, Lanting Zeng, Pengfei Hou, Ronghua Ling

Journal of System Simulation

Abstract: The spatiotemporal randomness of typhoon movement paths leads to uncertain operational risks for integrated electricity-heat systems (IEHS), making it difficult to balance system risk controllability and dispatch economy. To tackle this problem, an emergency risk dispatch (ERD) method for IEHS under typhoon disasters is proposed. An ERD model for IEHS under typhoon disasters is established within the model predictive control framework. Based on the uncertainty of typhoon wind speed prediction, a moment-based ambiguity set for uncertain equipment component failures is constructed, and a distributionally robust chance-constrained ERD model is formulated. An approximation method based on worst-case conditional value-at-risk (WC-CVaR) …

Bi-Level Coordinated Scheduling And Optimization Of Power Systems Based On Stackelberg-Gmo, Yuanxing Zhang, Jianfeng Li, Taoyong Li, Linjuan Zhang, Jincheng Liu, Bin Li

Journal of System Simulation

Abstract: , To balance the interests of the power grid and the demand side, and achieve coordinated improvements in system economic efficiency, environmental friendliness, and renewable energy accommodation capacity, this paper proposes a bi-level coordinated scheduling model based on the Stackelberg game and the GMO. A leader-follower game model incorporating carbon emission constraints and multi-scenario stochastic constraints for photovoltaic generation is constructed, with the grid operator as the leader and EVs/V2G and energy storage as the followers, resolving the core contradiction between global optimization and individual rationality. The spatio-temporal stochastic characteristics of EV travel, the cycle life of energy storage …

Energy Management Method For Integrated Energy Driven By Users’ Social Attributes, Yankai Zhu, Yujing Huang, Qinghua Wang, Xiaoning Zhang, Fang Fang, Yuguang Niu

Journal of System Simulation

Abstract: To explore a new interaction mechanism between an energy service provider (ESP) and multiple users, this paper proposes a complex modeling and energy management method for integrated energy systems driven by users' social attributes. A multi-agent interaction framework comprising an ESP and user clusters is established. To maximize the ESP's operational benefit and minimize users' energy costs, a leader-follower game-based energy management model is established within a reinforcement learning framework, and a distributed collaborative solution algorithm combining Q-learning and quadratic programming is proposed. Simulation results show that, compared with the traditional integrated demand response method, consideration of users' social …

Missing-Data-Tolerant Diffusion-Based Wind Power Scenario Forecasting Method, Yingying Shi, Xiaochong Dong, Guobin Fu, Miaomiao Ma, Yanhe Li, Xuebin Wang

Journal of System Simulation

Abstract: To address the issue of error accumulation in traditional "imputation-then-forecasting" approaches, a missing data tolerant diffusion framework (MDTDF) is proposed. An XGBoost regression model is employed to map numerical weather prediction data into deterministic power forecasts. The encoder in the denoising network extracts temporal features, which are fused with the deterministic forecasts and fed into the decoder through a cross-attention mechanism to guide the denoising process. A historical constraint mechanism is introduced to directly utilize incomplete historical data and dynamically correct the denoising result at each step through sample gradient updates and noise injection guided by historical information. The …

Time-Step Relaxation Method For Simulation With Time-Sensitive Interactions, Zhaopeng Liu, Kaidi Jin, Xunyun Liu, Dongao Zhou, Xinhai Xu

Journal of System Simulation

Abstract: In time-driven military simulation, time-step setting is a key technology for balancing operational efficiency and simulation accuracy. Based on the current research on time-step setting in military simulation, a trajectory spatiotemporal intersection calculation model is designed to address the performance bottleneck caused by the minimum time step, thus removing the constraints imposed on the minimum time step by interactions such as high-speed target detection and jamming. Experiments involving detection interaction scenarios are designed to verify the effectiveness of the model in preventing missed interactions and improving simulation efficiency.

A Review Of Spatial Indexing Technologies For Large-Scale Combat Simulation, Kaidi Jin, Xunyun Liu, Dongao Zhou, Yang Wang, Zhaopeng Liu

Journal of System Simulation

Abstract: The real-time performance and scalability of large-scale combat simulations are constrained by performance bottlenecks in spatial queries caused by massive numbers of dynamic entities. Spatial indexing technology becomes the key to solving this problem by establishing an efficient mapping between locations and entities. This paper reviews spatial indexing technologies in large-scale combat simulations. Based on an analysis of the core requirements for index structures in combat simulations, various indexing technologies along three main lines are examined: static indexing, dynamic optimization, and distributed parallelism. The principles, evolution, and applicability boundaries of these technologies are also examined, and their query and …

Learning Evolution Modeling Of Multi-Cycle Nested Cloud Manufacturing Service Ecosystem, Fang Li, Deyu Zhou, Gang Wang, Guangjun Liu, Qi Hu

Journal of System Simulation

Abstract: In view of the lack of comprehensive consideration of the individual adaptability changes of enterprises caused by the collaborative governance mechanism among multiple manufacturing units and the overall evolution trend of the system in existing learning evolution models, this proposed a learning evolution model of multi-cycle nested cloud manufacturing service ecosystem. At the micro level, the adaptive linkage decision-making among multiple manufacturing units within the enterprise was achieved in the individual layer through the nesting of planning-readiness-execution-assessment (PREA) loops and OODA loops; at the macro level, the closed-loop simulation of the individual layer, organizational layer, and social layer was …

Study On Transient Electric Field Of Insulated Rail Joints In High-Speed Railway Stations Based On Dissado-Hill Model, Junli Li, Youpeng Zhang

Journal of System Simulation

Abstract: The transient electric field distribution of insulated rail joints in high-speed railway stations under lightning impulse voltages is critical to their normal operation. Under lightning impulse voltages, considering the relaxation polarization of the insulated rail joint material, a frequency-domain mathematical model of its transient electric field was established. Based on Dissado-Hill model, the measured frequency-domain dielectric spectra were fitted and analyzed to reveal the microstructural characteristics of insulated rail joints and the interaction characteristics between microscopic particles during the polarization process. The results indicate that the relative permittivity of insulated rail joints decreases with the increasing harmonic frequency of …

Intelligent Evaluation Method For Regional Air Superiority Based On Graph Convolutional Neural Network, Peng He, Yubo Tang, Jingde Liu, Yujia Tian

Journal of System Simulation

Abstract: To address the dual challenges of the lack of quantification standards and sparse air combat samples in the superiority evaluation of modern air combat, an intelligent evaluation method for regional air superiority based on a graph convolutional neural network was proposed. The spatial grid method was employed to encode the air situation of the entire battlefield airspace into a new data representation, namely the air superiority matrix. A novel air superiority quantification model was applied to quantify the air superiority label values of spatial grids, and four key operational capabilities closely related to air superiority contention were selected as …

Sensorless Control Of Pmsm Based On An Improved Super-Twisting Sliding-Mode Observer, Shiyu Chen, Xinmin Chen, Xionglong Hu, Heng Wang, Yepeng Han, Jiajie Chen

Journal of System Simulation

Abstract: To address the chattering in back electromotive force estimation and the gain mismatch across a wide speed range when using a conventional super-twisting sliding-mode observer in the sensorless control system of a permanent-magnet synchronous motor, this paper proposed an improved adaptive-gain super-twisting sliding-mode observer. A linear correction term was introduced into the super-twisting algorithm and integrated with a gain adaptation law based on speed feedback, enabling the system to achieve finite-time convergence and high-precision back electromotive force estimation over a wide speed range. A variable-gain adaptive complex-coefficient filter was constructed to effectively suppress the harmonic components in the observed …

Line Spectrum Enhancement Technology Based On Second-Order Vector Hydrophone, Zhengkai Wang, Yirong Yu, Qing Hu

Journal of System Simulation

Abstract: In view of the problem of limited detection of line spectrum signals in low signal-to-noise ratio underwater environments, a spatial-temporal cooperative line spectrum enhancement technology based on a two-dimensional second-order vector hydrophone was proposed. A receiving signal model of the two-dimensional second-order vector hydrophone was established to clarify the spatial characteristics of its output signals. For spatial signal processing, the signals from each channel of the vector hydrophone were fused to suppress noise, and a channel combination method with high spatial directivity gain was proposed to achieve spatial processing gain. For temporal signal processing, an adaptive line spectrum enhancer …

Dodaf-Opm-Sd Cross-Layer Automated Mapping Method Based On A Unified Semantic Bridge, Lei Cheng, Gang Xiao, Binbin Wang, Siming Peng, Haozhe Liang, Xiangwu Gong

Journal of System Simulation

Abstract: To address the problems of the inability of DoDAF views to directly drive simulations and the insufficient cross-layer semantic alignment and consistency verification, a DoDAF-OPM-SD cross-layer semantic automated/semi-automated mapping and verification method was proposed in this paper. Targeting tactical/operational-level problems dominated by "conservation+feedback+time delay", the proposed method reduced manual mapping under expert adjudication based on a "minimal executable view set". The object-process methodology served as a semantic bridge to map architectural elements into the stock-flow-feedback structures of system dynamics; semantic embedding disambiguation, integer programming harmonization, and K-nearest neighbor parameter completion were integrated; end-to-end traceability was connected through traceability identifiers, …

Design And Implementation Of Hdrt Real-Time Simulation System, Huiji Zheng, Guangsen Wang, Qing Liu, Kang Wang, Zhiwei Wang, Zhenyu Zhang, Shuo Wang, Zhu Liu

Journal of System Simulation

Abstract: In view of the real-time simulation requirements of large-scale complex systems such as power electronics, a hidden dragon real-time(HDRT) simulation system was developed. The strict time constraints of simulation tasks were guaranteed based on a resource-dedicated real-time scheme, supporting fixed-step and multi-rate simulations from the second level to the hundred-nanosecond level. A hybrid CPU-field programmable gate array(FPGA) architecture was adopted to accelerate computation. The system could utilize multiple simulators for parallel simulation and realized microsecond-level real-time data interaction between simulators through a dedicated PCIe switch. A single simulator could be expanded through I/O interface equipment, supporting a maximum input …

Numerical Simulation Of Water Tank Solidification In A Firefighting Aircraft Under High-Altitude Cold-Soak Conditions, Guanmian Liu, Zhihang Cheng, Hejun Qin, Kangzhi Yang, Qing Wen, Kun Gao

Journal of System Simulation

Abstract: A systematic numerical simulation study was conducted to address the issue of internal water tank solidification in firefighting aircraft under high-altitude low-temperature conditions. Based on computational fluid dynamics methods, a solidification-melting model considering fluid-structure interaction heat transfer and phase change processes was adopted. Through reasonable simplification of the complex geometric model, a quasi-three-dimensional computational model suitable for engineering analysis was developed. The influence laws of key parameters, including high-altitude cold-soak temperature, ground initial water temperature, and cold-soak time, on the freezing characteristics of the water tank were investigated. Combining with the parameter influence laws, a safety criterion using the …

Combat Effectiveness Evaluation Of Anti-Ship Missiles For Intelligent Autonomous Recognition, Long Zhang, Xuanming Feng, Zhen Lei, Bo Yang, Ying Wang

Journal of System Simulation

Abstract: To address the core issues of poor adaptability of static fusion strategies in existing recognition models, as well as the simplistic evaluation system and its disconnection from dynamic confrontation requirements, a practical four-dimensional evaluation system encompassing "recognition accuracy, antijamming stability, decision timeliness, and modal complementarity" was constructed, and an operational effectiveness composite index (OECI) capable of dynamically adapting to tactical scenarios was proposed. A multimodal dynamic attention fusion network (MDA-Net) for anti-ship missiles in complex confrontation environments was designed. Through heterogeneous feature decoupling, dynamic weighting of cross-modal attention, and a hierarchical gating decision mechanism, the autonomous evaluation and adaptive …

Infrared Image Generation Method Based On Improved Cyclegan, Qiqi Jin, Xiang Zhang, Li Gao, Lin Zhang, Junliang Yan, Peiyao Li

Journal of System Simulation

Abstract: To address the problems in current infrared image generation such as insufficient contrast between target and scene, excessively large discrepancies from real scenes, indistinct thermal source features, and great difficulty in constructing measured infrared image datasets, an improved CycleGAN-based infrared image generation method was proposed. By optimizing the network structure of the generator and adding a non-local module and a CBAM convolutional attention mechanism into the generator, the extraction capability of CycleGAN for infrared features was enhanced, enabling the network to capture the subtle features of targets more accurately; a perceptual loss function was introduced to improve the detail …

Optimal Scheduling Of Virtual Power Plants Considering Photothermal Power Stations And Hydrogen Energy Utilization, Yousong Chen, Ruofa Cheng, Yi Liu, Yi Zhang, Zhihao Zuo

Journal of System Simulation

Abstract: To enhance the operational stability and low-carbon performance of virtual power plants (VPPs) with high shares of renewable energy, a coordinated dispatch model integrating concentrated solar power (CSP) plants with power-to-gas (P2G) and carbon capture is developed. An optimal VPP scheduling strategy is proposed, combining a stepped carbon trading mechanism with a compensation coefficient and dynamic hydrogen blending. To address multi-source uncertainties in wind power, CSP power, and loads, an envelope boundary model is used for simulation. Information gap decision theory (IGDT) is applied to provide customized solutions for decision-makers with different risk preferences. A bi-objective optimization model is …

Fault-Tolerant Control Method For All-Type Actuator Faults Of Evtol Aircraft, Juan Wang, Guorui Li, Zhiyong Fan, Huijie Chen

Journal of System Simulation

Abstract: To address all-type actuator faults, especially nonlinear distortion issues, in multi-rotor eVTOL aircraft, a novel fault-tolerant control method was proposed. A fault function was established at the rotor speed level, and a fault-tolerant control algorithm combining dynamic robust nonsingular fast integral terminal sliding mode with a high-order finite-time disturbance observer was designed to achieve fault-tolerant control through rotor redundancy allocation. The nonsingular fast integral terminal sliding mode algorithm was improved, and a dynamic system containing actuator faults and their derivatives was constructed via a dynamic surface to achieve system convergence within finite time, avoiding the singularity and chattering problems …

A Method For Assessing The Contribution Degree Of An Aviation Delivery System And Identifying Key Equipment, Xiaofeng Liu, Chengze Jiang, Xingyu Chen, Deyin Jiang, Bolin Shang, Bifeng Song

Journal of System Simulation

Abstract: Based on the delivery efficiency and delivery quality, a general aviation delivery system effectiveness evaluation model was constructed, and a calculation method of system contribution degree based on efficiency was given. By combining the system calculation experiment and simulation experiment based on agent-based modeling and simulation (ABMS), the design idea of the Monte Carlo simulation experiment for key equipment identification and equipment technology development trend analysis was sorted out, and the key equipment identification method based on ABMS and contribution evaluation was proposed. By taking the intercontinental long-range aviation delivery mission as an example, a variety of simulation experiments …

Optimization Of Node Deployment For Three-Dimensional Heterogeneous Wsn In Elongated Structural Space, Jiguang Yang, Jiuyuan Huo, Fang Cao, Cong Mu

Journal of System Simulation

Abstract: To achieve effective coverage of key monitoring points in an elongated structural space, a heterogeneous wireless sensor network(HWSN) deployment optimization method combining the virtual force algorithm(VFA) and multi-strategy improved whale optimization algorithm(MSIWOA), namely HVF-MSIWOA, was proposed. A dynamic adaptive weight mechanism and a t-distribution perturbation operator with heterogeneous degrees of freedom were designed, enabling the whale optimization algorithm(WOA) to balance global exploration and local exploitation and jump out of local optima; combining the topological characteristics of the elongated space and node density distribution, an adaptive virtual force distance threshold between heterogeneous nodes was constructed; the mapping relationship between network …

Three-Dimensional Gaussian Reconstruction Of Large-Scale Scenes Under Multi-View Geometry Constraints, Haohao Cui, Yanqiang Di, Qing Liu, Xianguo Meng

Journal of System Simulation

Abstract: To enhance the geometry reconstruction quality of the GS algorithm in large-scale scene reconstruction, an optimization method constrained by multi-view geometry reconstruction results was proposed. 2D Gaussian planes were used as geometric primitives to overcome depth anisotropy, and dense depth maps generated by DUSt3R and aligned by sparse point clouds were introduced as constraints. By designing a multi-stage optimization strategy that decouples geometry and rendering, the gradient conflict problem in multi-objective training was solved. Experiments on the MatrixCity dataset indicate that the method surpasses comparison methods in related indicators of geometry reconstruction quality and rendering quality in large-scale scenes. …

Structure Meets Context: A Simulation Study Of Centralized And Decentralized Decision-Making In Complex Environments, Murat Balci

Engineering Management & Systems Engineering Theses & Dissertations

The question of when to centralize or decentralize decision-making authority is a foundational problem in organizational theory and management science. Yet existing research often favors decentralized structures, frequently treating them as universally superior, and provides limited guidance on when centralization may be more effective. Leaning toward decentralization without thoroughly exploring options leaves organizational designers without clear direction under varying environmental conditions. This study addresses that gap by developing and applying a simulation-based framework to evaluate the context-dependent effectiveness of centralized and decentralized decision-making structures.

Drawing on contingency theory and decision science, the study conceptualizes environmental complexity along two dimensions: dynamism …

Drones In Wildfire Airspace Management: Developing A Scalable Framework For Mid-Sized Cities, Victoria Denise Tanner Williamson

Engineering Management & Systems Engineering Theses & Dissertations

Wildfires are becoming increasingly frequent and severe, creating growing risks for mid-sized communities with limited emergency response resources. The January 2025 Los Angeles wildfires—which burned more than 57,000 acres and destroyed over 18,000 structures—underscore the urgent need to strengthen wildfire response strategies through the integration of unmanned aerial systems (UAS) (Hardy, 2025).

This study develops a scalable framework for drone-assisted wildfire response in resource-constrained environments. Using the city of Waynesboro, Virginia, as a case study, the research examines how mid-sized jurisdictions can integrate unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) to improve preparedness, response, and recovery. A three-round, mixed-methods Delphi study engages emergency …

Physics-Guided Deep Learning For Predictive Modeling Of Spatiotemporal Dynamical Systems, Niharika Deshpande

Engineering Management & Systems Engineering Theses & Dissertations

Many physical and networked systems evolve under continuously changing spatial and temporal conditions. Transportation networks respond to fluctuating demand, atmospheric fields reorganize as storms intensify, and coastal response depends on localized forcing pathways. Modeling such systems requires learning formulations that adapt to evolving structure, operate on irregular geometries, and provide interpretable measures of predictive uncertainty. This dissertation develops a physics-guided spatiotemporal learning framework designed for structured dynamical systems whose governing interactions are neither static nor Euclidean. The central premise is that spatial relationships in these systems are dynamic and geometry-dependent. To represent this behavior, system states are modeled on time-varying …

Stop Blaming My Users: Illumination Of The Technocentric Mythos Bias, Ervin H. Frenzel, Richard Lightcap

Journal of Cybersecurity Education, Research and Practice

 Abstract -This conceptual essay addresses the need for systemic and systematic transdisciplinary analytical techniques within cybersecurity and technical security. This conceptual essay is contingent upon recognition that cybersecurity is not simply technical in nature, it does not need an adversary, and more importantly it is based upon systems engineering and systems thinking.  The essay contributes a socio-technical attribution chain and field-specific ontology/taxonomy which distinguish user-triggered events from root causes, latent conditions, technical debt, validation failures, governance failures, and attribution bias before assigning responsibility to end users. It systematically defines an ontology inclusive of developer technical debt, organizational debt arising from …

Online Ppo-Based Multi-Hop Task Offloading Strategy For Vehicular Edge Computing, Wenzhu Zhang, Yuewei Bian, Fuli Xiong, Siqi Cai

Journal of System Simulation

Abstract: To address the problems of frequent communication link interruptions caused by dynamic network topologies and the sharp increase in computational complexity triggered by high-dimensional decision spaces in the vehicular edge computing (VEC) environment, a multi-hop task offloading strategy for VEC based on an online PPO algorithm was proposed. A multi-hop task offloading optimization model simultaneously considering link effective time, transmission rate, and computing resource constraints was constructed; a multi-hop A* path search algorithm integrating link stability and end-to-end delay was designed; an online offloading decision framework based on PPO was proposed, which transformed the 0-1 mixed integer nonlinear programming …

Research On Temporal Action Localization Methods For Cross-Modal Understanding, Jinwei Li, Xiaoyang Liu, Rusheng Ju

Journal of System Simulation

Abstract: To address the problems of insufficient localization accuracy and high model complexity in the temporal action localization (TAL) task for video-text cross-modal understanding, an anchor-free action transformer (AFAT) model was proposed. Based on the anchor-free framework, the local self-attention mechanism of Transformer was introduced to enhance the global modeling capability of temporal features. A multi-scale feature pyramid structure was combined to strengthen the representation of actions with different durations, and a lightweight predictor was adopted to reduce computational redundancy. Experimental results show that the average precision of this model on the THUMOS14 dataset is significantly improved compared with the …

Resilience Modeling Method For Combat System-Of-Systems Based On Hypernetwork And Game Theory, Yuxian Duan, Hanqiang Deng, Jiarui Zhang, Jian Huang, Shijia Zhang

Journal of System Simulation

Abstract: In view of the difficulties in dynamic reconfiguration and resilience evaluation faced by modern combat system-of-systems in a highly adversarial environment, and the deficiencies of existing studies in depicting high-order interaction relationships and cluster evolution mechanisms, this paper proposed a resilience modeling method for combat system-of-systems integrating hypernetwork and game theory, aiming to analyze the resilience mechanism of the system-of-systems in all dimensions from micro, mesoscopic, to macro levels. At the micro level, a high-order motif structure was introduced to represent the complex interaction modes among combat units, which overcame the information loss of traditional binary relationships in depicting …