Systems Science Commons^™

Graph-Based Machine Learning For Multivariate Time Series Prediction In Scientific Domains: Streamflow Forecasting And Solar Flare Prediction, Kishore Ragul Alagarsamy

All Graduate Reports and Creative Projects, Fall 2023 to Present

Machine learning methods applied to multivariate time series data have emerged as powerful tools across a range of scientific domains. This report examines two distinct application areas in which such methods yield actionable predictive insights: hydrological streamflow forecasting and solar flare prediction in space weather.

In the domain of streamflow forecasting, a Two-Graph Spatio-Temporal Graph Neural Network (Two-Graph STGNN) was developed to predict river discharge across a 20-station network in the Upper Colorado River Basin. The architecture separates hydrological and meteorological feature streams into two complementary graph representations and fuses them through a learned attention mechanism. Systematic evaluation across 23 …

Improving Urban Search And Rescue Team Coordination Through Adaptive Context Awareness, Daniel Reyes Duran

Doctoral Dissertations and Master's Theses

Modern multi-agent Urban Search and Rescue (USAR) operations heavily rely on mobile geospatial Common Operating Pictures (COPs) to maintain team coordination and Situational Awareness (SA). However, the proliferation of high-frequency sensor telemetry at the tactical edge has introduced a data saturation paradox challenge: while information theoretically drives informed decision-making, unmanaged data surges induce increased operator cognitive overload and alert fatigue on mobile End-User Devices (EUDs), while downstream data-broadcasting models inherently strain edge processing and viewport environments.

To resolve these constraints, this dissertation presents a context-aware Value of Information (VoI) data-management framework integrated directly with a custom, event-driven Android Team Awareness …

Plasmoid Vortex System Retrofit A Sustainability And Efficiency Study On Internal Combustion Engines, Walker Hall

Doctoral Dissertations and Master's Theses

The thesis addresses the persistent inefficiency and environmental degradation caused by internal combustion engines in modern vehicles, a major issue as the automotive industry faces increasing pressure to reduce fuel consumption and greenhouse gas emissions. Internal combustion engines, which power most cars today, convert only about 20-30% of fuel energy into useful work, with the remainder lost as heat and exhaust waste, including carbon monoxide (CO), carbon dioxide (CO₂), hydrocarbons (HC), and nitrogen oxides (NOx). This inefficiency contributes to global carbon emissions, with transportation accounting for approximately 29% of U.S. greenhouse gases in 2021 [1]. As regulatory standards tighten (e.g., …

An Integrated Bayesian Network-Based Zero Trust Model To Quantify Cyber Risk In Small-Medium Businesses, Ahmed Abdelmagid

Engineering Management & Systems Engineering Theses & Dissertations

Small-medium businesses (SMBs) play a pivotal role in the worldwide economy as they constitute the most considerable portion of businesses in developed countries like the UK and the US. As such, SMBs are likely targets of cybercrimes by malicious agents because of their vulnerable IT systems. The digital infrastructure of SMBs is more likely to be hit by cyberattacks than large businesses due to many factors that facilitate hackers’ missions. These factors include a limited financial budget devoted to cybersecurity, a lack of knowledge, an underrating of how dangerous cyber threats are, and a shortage of IT expertise. The enormous …

Identification Of Thruster Faults In Underwater Vehicles By Using Custom Encodings In Spiking Neural Networks, Donovan Gegg

LSU Master's Theses

Autonomous Underwater Vehicles (AUVs) are untethered robotic platforms used for tasks such as seafloor mapping, infrastructure inspection, and environmental monitoring. Recent technological advances have produced smaller, more affordable platforms, broadening access to research teams and small companies alike. This miniaturization comes at the cost of them handling drawbacks associated with a more compact machine such as reduced battery capacity as well as limited processing and sensing capabilities. These constraints make small-sized marine vehicle’s reliability critical as they can cause malfunctions, making the loss of a vehicle more likely. Actuator faults are particularly consequential as unintended and unstable control in an …

A Capability Maturity Model For Artificial Intelligence Integration In Supply Chain Management, Lordt Becklines

Dissertations

Artificial Intelligence (AI) is transforming Supply Chain Management (SCM), yet many organizations struggle to assess their readiness for AI adoption and to understand how AI capabilities develop across maturity stages. This dissertation addresses this gap by developing a Capability Maturity Model (CMM) for AI integration in SCM, grounded in Organizational Information Processing Theory (OIPT), the Resource-Based View, and related capability frameworks. The model provides a structured approach for evaluating an organization's information-processing requirements, resource configurations, and alignment needed for effective AI-enabled supply chain operations.

Using a design science research approach, the AI-SCM CMM and its associated assessment instrument were derived …

Feasibility Of Corn Stover For Biogas Production In Northwestern Illinois: A Case Study Of Jo Daviess And Carroll Counties, Anthony Amotoe-Bondzie

Masters Theses

The growing demand for renewable energy and sustainable waste management has intensified interest in agricultural residues such as bioenergy feedstocks. This study evaluated the feasibility of converting corn stover into biogas through anaerobic digestion (AD) in Jo Daviess and Carroll Counties, Illinois, with consideration of the Savanna Industrial Park as a potential centralized processing hub. Although corn stover represents one of the largest biomass resources in the United States, this research identifies a critical gap between theoretical availability and practically recoverable feedstock. Using a mixed-methods framework, the study integrates biomass quantification, methane yield modeling, economic analysis, and policy assessment. Results …

Probing The Mechanisms Of Reinforcement Learning: Reinforcement Learning, Ventral Striatal Astrocytes, And The Dynamic Coordination Of Information Seeking With Learning, Fatih Sogukpinar

McKelvey School of Engineering Graduate Student Theses & Dissertations

While reinforcement learning has been a vital component in artificial intelligence and machine learning, there exist many open questions about its implementations and how to improve them, in both minds and machines. Among these are i) the contribution of non-neuronal cell types to reinforcement learning, and ii) information-seeking behavior during reinforcement learning. In this thesis, we studied these main topics pertaining to reinforcement learning. In the first chapter, we examined the role of astrocytes in reinforcement learning, and in the second, we investigated human information seeking during reinforcement learning. Neurons in the human and animal brain have been known to …

Modeling The Mojave: A Multiphase, Mixed Methods Phenomenological Investigation Of Novice Understanding Of A Complex Ecological System, Nicole Juliana Thomas

UNLV Theses, Dissertations, Professional Papers, and Capstones

This research explores early college science majors’ conceptions of the Mojave Desert ecosystem as a complex system. A multi-level, explanatory sequential mixed methods design was employed to study college science majors’ understanding of the Mojave Desert ecosystem to better inform science pedagogy. The first level, the quantitative phase of the study, consisted of developing a mathematical representation of twelve ecosystem variables present within the Mojave Desert. The second level, the qualitative phase of the study, consisted of phenomenological semi-structured interviews with 23 early college science majors. The findings of this research suggest that the Mojave Desert operates as a complex, …

An Innovative Hdm Model For Assessing Renewable Heat Energy Resources In Utility Energy Systems, Mark Alan Ryan

Dissertations and Theses

Renewable Heat Energy projects exhibit numerous unique, complex, and often conflicting characteristics, including varying project sizes, diverse energy resources, stakeholder demands, and significant challenges in energy conversion applications. Traditionally, cash flow analysis and return on investment are the most widely recognized metrics for evaluating remote energy projects. However, numerous quantitative and qualitative factors influence the overall performance and success of Renewable Heat Energy System (RHES) projects. A comprehensive approach using advanced tools is essential for assessing the factors and criteria that significantly impact these projects.

This research investigates the key quantitative and qualitative factors that contribute to the successful implementation …

Mbse For Process Analytical Technology- Bwon Analysis Case Study, Arnaldo Garcia Cervantes

Open Access Theses & Dissertations

Volatile Organic Compound (VOC) emissions from industrial sources, particularly Benzene, present significant environmental and public health challenges. Regulatory frameworks, such as the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s Benzene Waste Operations NESHAP (BWON), mandate strict monitoring of control devices, specifically carbon adsorption canisters, to prevent emission breakthrough. However, current industry practices rely heavily on manual Method 21 testing, a labor-intensive process that creates lagging indicators and increases the risk of non-compliance events. This thesis proposes the design and development of an on-line, automated fugitive emissions monitoring system tailored for carbon canisters using Model-Based Systems Engineering (MBSE). Utilizing the Object-Oriented System Engineering Method …

Evaluating Large Language Models For Requirements Engineering And Verification: A Comparative Analysis Of Gpt-5 And Gemini 3 Pro, Guadalupe Nevarez

Open Access Theses & Dissertations

Large Language Models (LLMs) are increasingly viewed as viable tools for Systems Engineering, yet empirical data regarding their effectiveness in generating engineering-quality requirements remains limited. This thesis compares the performance of GPT-5 and Gemini 3 Pro in generating system functional requirements for the Miner Guardian Drone, a prototype UAV designed for minefield remediation. Both models were provided with identical prompts and tasked with producing 15 functional requirements. Two independent raters evaluated the outputs using a nine-dimensional quality rubric aligned with IEEE 29148 and INCOSE guidelines to ensure rigorous assessment. The difference between the models was analyzed using descriptive statistics and …

Comparative Analysis Of Emergent Behaviors Of Three Drone Swarm System Models For Targeting Using Agent-Based Modeling And Simulation, Arsenio T. Gumahad Ii

Engineering Management & Systems Engineering Theses & Dissertations

This dissertation introduces a novel computational simulation framework for evaluating the emergent behaviors of three swarm drone models using Agent-Based Modeling and Simulation (ABMS). The three swarm models are a Leader-Follower swarm model based on Bruckstein's antline theory, a Flocking model based on a simplified Reynolds 'Boids’ model, and a Stigmergic model with pheromone-based coordination. The primary objective of the simulation is to evaluate the performance of these models in delivering a user-defined number of drones of each type to a target area of interest in four separate scenarios, resulting in 50,000 separate simulation trials. Each scenario was structured to …

Component Model Development Of Heat Exchangers, Expanders, And Control Valves For Autonomous Cryogenics Plant Cool-Down, William Harris Buhrig Iv

Mechanical & Aerospace Engineering Theses & Dissertations

The traditional method of cryogenic plant cool-down involves having continuous on-call staff to head into the office at any time to modify the existing multi-layered PID control systems if the on-call staff member detects a significant deviation from the cool-down plan. This thesis aims to outline an effective method for modeling the structure of systems with performance characteristics that deviate from design requirements and from ideal inlet-outlet correspondence, enabling the adjustment and modification of existing control structures across all Thomas Jefferson National Accelerator Facility (JLab) cryogenic refrigeration plants. Analytical Modeling and Gaussian Process Regression (GPR) are applied to model the …

Secret Key Generation Based On The Physical Layer Characteristics For Iot Networks, Abdullah Dakhlallah Alshamdayn

Doctoral Dissertations

The rapid expansion of low-resource devices, coupled with advances in telecommunications, has significantly increased the number of connected devices and enabled the development of affordable, energy-efficient, portable, and high-performance sensors for diverse applications. However, this convenience comes with security and privacy concerns related to the reliability of hardware, software, and communication infrastructure. The extensive interconnectivity of limited-resource devices and the transmission of large data volumes pose significant security challenges in wireless networks. The future wireless technologies, such as 5G, will enable the transfer of critical data, including personal, financial, military, and industrial information, necessitating secure communication in wireless networks. Generally, …

From Model To Behavior: Methodological Challenges In Using Fuzzy Cognitive Maps To Represent Mental Models, Catherine Elizabeth Moore

Dissertations and Theses

This dissertation examines the use of Fuzzy cognitive maps (FCMs) as representations of mental models and how these representations connect to individual behavior. Fuzzy cognitive maps (FCMs) are semi-quantitative models that encode cause-and-effect structures as directed graphs. They are frequently used to represent individuals' knowledge structures/mental models and should in theory correlate to actions and decisions of individuals; however, this correlation has yet to be explored in a systematic manner. This dissertation represents the first step in experimental research on the connection between FCMs and individual behavior. It examines two theories of how humans use mental models, one based on …

An Envisioned And Efficient Design Of Next Generation Decentralized Iot Bot Detection Model, Ahmed Abdullah Almalki

Doctoral Dissertations

The Industrial Internet of Things (IIoT) and Internet of Medical Things (IoMT) are revolutionizing critical infrastructures, but their expansion has also introduced severe cybersecurity vulnerabilities. Traditional IoT Bot Detection Systems (IBDS) struggle to scale in environments characterized by high-dimensional, large-scale, and redundant network traffic. These challenges hinder the development of reliable cloud-based intrusion detection systems. The limitations of static and rulebased methods in detecting evolving IoT botnet attacks—such as those launched by Mirai and Gafgyt—underscore the need for intelligent, adaptive approaches. To address this, the present study proposes a machine learning and deep learning-driven IoT Botnet Detection Model, validated through …

A Control Theoretic Approach To The Stochastic Multi-Armed Bandit Problem With Applications In Hyperparameter Optimization, Jonathan Gornet

McKelvey School of Engineering Graduate Student Theses & Dissertations

Decision-making under uncertainty is a fundamental problem encountered frequently in many real-world applications. This challenge has been rigorously formulated as the Stochastic Multi-Armed Bandit (SMAB) problem, which consists of a learner interacting with an environment. For each interaction, the learner selects an action and then receives a reward from the environment based on the chosen action. The learner's objective is to maximize the accumulated reward over a set number of rounds. This thesis addresses the SMAB problem by leveraging the field of Control Theory and dynamical systems. We specifically focus on a SMAB environment where the rewards are the output …

Moment Ensemble Approaches For Estimation And Robust Quantum Control, Andre Luiz Paes De Lima

McKelvey School of Engineering Graduate Student Theses & Dissertations

Large-scale population dynamics governed by ensemble systems present significant challenges due to their inherently high dimensionality. Recent advances have demonstrated the effectiveness of moment-based methods (particularly those employing polynomial bases such as Legendre and Chebyshev polynomials) when integrated with optimization techniques for control design in ensemble systems. However, these methods have not been extensively explored for enhancing robustness against systematic noise, nor have they been widely applied to complex quantum systems involving multi-parameter configurations and entanglement phenomena. In this work, we extend the application of moment methods in ensemble systems through two projects. Initially by developing a Kalman filter analogue, …

Emergence Of Norms In The Presence Of Social Network Structure In A Stochastic Evolutionary Game Theory Model, Parker Foresman

Dissertations and Theses

In their 2000 paper, The Emergence of Classes in a Multi-Agent Bargaining Model, Axtell, Epstein, and Young introduced an agent-based bargaining model to study how social norms can emerge and persist from the decentralized, asynchronous interactions of individual agents in the presence of noise, even when these agents have no predefined preferences or advantages. This thesis extends their model by incorporating structured interaction networks, allowing us to investigate how the topology of agent interactions influences long-run dynamics and norm formation. Using a custom simulation package built in the Julia programming language, we replicate the original results under a complete …

Understanding The Elements Of Sterile Processing Workflow: Or, Sterilization And Personnel, Sayed Rezwanul Islam

All Dissertations

The Sterile Processing Department (SPD), also known as the Central Sterile Services Department (CSSD), is an essential part of hospitals and healthcare facilities and is responsible for ensuring the cleanliness, sterility, and proper functioning of medical instruments. Sterile processing departments (SPDs) are key drivers of productivity, effectiveness, safety, and infection control in hospitals. A well-designed SPD workflow can enhance patient safety, reduce operating room (OR) delays, and improve productivity. To understand the flow of sterile processing and interactions between the OR and SPD, process maps and task analyses were developed through direct observations of the basic SPD functions: decontamination, assembly, …

A Digital Engineering Framework For Ai-Driven Trade-Off Evaluation And Predictive Component Classification, Alejandro Silva Au

Open Access Theses & Dissertations

This thesis introduces a digital engineering tool designed to help engineers make smarter decisions when choosing actuators. At its core, the system brings together machine learning (specifically XGBoost) and a decision-making method called Multi-Utility Attribute Theory (MUAT). The goal is to support engineers in picking components based on what really matters for their designs, whether that's speed, cost, durability, or any other performance factor. What makes this tool stand out is its user-friendly interface that lets people interact with the system directly. It takes a set of actuator performance data, classifies each one into a relevant use category, and then …

Model-Based Systems Engineering For Aerospace Applications: Strategic Requirements Prioritization In Complex Adaptive Systems And Digital Integration, Iqtiar Md Siddique

Open Access Theses & Dissertations

Ineffective systems engineering practices continue to jeopardize aerospace missions, resulting in multi-billion-dollar losses, delays, and fragmented development outcomes. As complexity intensifies and timelines shrink, conventional document-based methods increasingly fail to support early validation, cross-domain traceability, and synchronized tool usage. This research presents an integrated approach that addresses three critical gaps: synchronizing executable and traceable MBSE models across structural, behavioral, and requirements domains; applying scalable requirements prioritization techniques tailored for Complex Adaptive Systems; and establishing automated simulation feedback loops through digital toolchain integration. Central to this strategy is the Digital Trinity, which connects system models, simulations, and lifecycle data through a …

Complex System Governance And Cyber Operations, Willie Gernard Mccallister

Engineering Management & Systems Engineering Theses & Dissertations

This dissertation examines the potential integration of Complex System Governance (CSG) within cybersecurity, emphasizing the development of a reference model for Cybersecurity Infrastructures. Traditional strategies for securing digital environments have struggled to address the intricate and dynamic layers inherent in modern cybersecurity systems. The purpose of this research is to explore the applicability of CSG as a framework to assess cybersecurity infrastructure using a case study research design. The research addresses two key questions: (1) How can the CSG reference model be adapted to explore cybersecurity infrastructure? (2) What results from CSG based exploration of cybersecurity infrastructure through a case …

A Methodology For Model-Based Certification, Jay Albert Silverman

Engineering Management & Systems Engineering Theses & Dissertations

A need for a single source of knowledge for design decisions has led to the development of a new field of systems engineering, model-based systems engineering (MBSE) (Delligati, 2014). System certification is defined as affirming that regulatory requirements for a system have been met (Goodwin & Juzaitis, 2006). System certification is a specific application of system validation. System verification can be defined as ensuring that the system of interest (SOI), as designed, is in accordance with the design inputs/requirements. System validation can be defined as ensuring that the SOI, as designed, meets the defined system needs (Wolfgand, Katz, & Wheatcraft, …

Human Activity Recognition And Identification Driven Automated Deep Learning For Time-Series Classification, Justin Alan Gamble

Engineering Management & Systems Engineering Theses & Dissertations

The growing emphasis on Digital Engineering (DE) within the U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) demands advanced methods for leveraging vast time-series data generated by sensor-rich environments. Deep learning models offer promising solutions for complex timeseries classification tasks, however their design and optimization remain highly resource intensive, requiring specialized expertise. This dissertation addresses this challenge by developing and evaluating an Automated Machine Learning (AutoML) framework specifically tailored for the time-series classification task of Human Activity Recognition and Identification (HARI).

A systematic investigation was conducted using the Design Science Research Methodology (DSRM) comparing traditional search strategies of grid search and random search …

Data-Driven Constrained Control, Ali Kashani

Mechanical Engineering ETDs

Ensuring safety is a fundamental challenge. Traditional methods often rely on precise mathematical models, which are difficult, impractical, or costly to obtain for real-world systems with complex, nonlinear dynamics. This dissertation develops direct data-driven control approaches that enable safe and efficient operation of nonlinear systems without requiring explicit models or performing system identification. This effort leverages machine learning, optimization, and control theory to bridge theoretical rigor and practical applicability. Deterministic guarantees are provided based on the Lipschitz continuity of the system, and probabilistic guarantees through scenario optimization. The computation of safe sets is performed using one-shot approaches with broad neural …

Evolutionary Influences On Oceanic Islands Parasites: Phylogeography, Genetic Structure, And The “Island Rule” Of Common Ground Doves (Columbina Passerina) And Their Lice, Paige Jordan Brewer

Student Theses and Dissertations

Organisms on oceanic island archipelagos often exhibit strong genetic signatures and adaptations. Here, we focus on Common Ground Doves (Columbina passerina) and their parasitic lice, Physconelloides body lice and Columbicola wing lice, across the Caribbean islands to examine phylogeography, population genetics, and the “Island rule”. We used genome-wide sequences and found C. passerina doves and their lice exhibited unique dispersal patterns and phylogenetic relationships; however, similar population structure. We also found distinct patterns of genetic diversity between Physconelloides and Columbicola, likely caused by variations in their dispersal abilities. Additionally, we measured C. passerina specimens and their lice to compare island …

Model-Based Design Of Compressed Lithium-Metal Pouch Cell Battery Modules For Evtol Applications, Scott J. Stirling

Master's Theses

Batteries with higher specific energy and power are essential for extending the range and performance of electric vertical takeoff and landing aircraft (eVTOLs). Anode-free lithium-metal pouch cells offer strong potential at the cell-level but require high compressive pressures to enhance cycle life and discharge performance. These pressures necessitate heavier structural components, reducing packaging efficiency at the module level.

To evaluate this tradeoff, a full-factorial enumeration model was developed to explore viable module designs within a constrained packaging volume. The model scales subsystem masses, enforces design rules and material limits, and accounts for large (~20%) cell thickness changes during cycling.

Results …

New York City Misses The Exit To Traffic Safety, Joseph Caffrey

Capstones

New York City Misses the Exit to Traffic Safety investigates New York City’s mounting traffic violence crisis through the lens of a devastating crash that killed a Brooklyn mother and her two daughters. It examines the city’s inconsistent enforcement of reckless driving and the failure of the Dangerous Vehicle Abatement Program (DVAP), which aimed to reform recidivist speeders. The piece investigates the imperfections of Vision Zero, public backlash to automated enforcement, and the broader failure to prevent recidivist speeding. It also explores policy alternatives like Intelligent Speed Assistance (ISA), highlighting legislative efforts to revive accountability and save lives, while advocating …