Systems Science Commons^™

Structure Meets Context: A Simulation Study Of Centralized And Decentralized Decision-Making In Complex Environments, Murat Balci

Engineering Management & Systems Engineering Theses & Dissertations

The question of when to centralize or decentralize decision-making authority is a foundational problem in organizational theory and management science. Yet existing research often favors decentralized structures, frequently treating them as universally superior, and provides limited guidance on when centralization may be more effective. Leaning toward decentralization without thoroughly exploring options leaves organizational designers without clear direction under varying environmental conditions. This study addresses that gap by developing and applying a simulation-based framework to evaluate the context-dependent effectiveness of centralized and decentralized decision-making structures.

Drawing on contingency theory and decision science, the study conceptualizes environmental complexity along two dimensions: dynamism …

Drones In Wildfire Airspace Management: Developing A Scalable Framework For Mid-Sized Cities, Victoria Denise Tanner Williamson

Engineering Management & Systems Engineering Theses & Dissertations

Wildfires are becoming increasingly frequent and severe, creating growing risks for mid-sized communities with limited emergency response resources. The January 2025 Los Angeles wildfires—which burned more than 57,000 acres and destroyed over 18,000 structures—underscore the urgent need to strengthen wildfire response strategies through the integration of unmanned aerial systems (UAS) (Hardy, 2025).

This study develops a scalable framework for drone-assisted wildfire response in resource-constrained environments. Using the city of Waynesboro, Virginia, as a case study, the research examines how mid-sized jurisdictions can integrate unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) to improve preparedness, response, and recovery. A three-round, mixed-methods Delphi study engages emergency …

Physics-Guided Deep Learning For Predictive Modeling Of Spatiotemporal Dynamical Systems, Niharika Deshpande

Engineering Management & Systems Engineering Theses & Dissertations

Many physical and networked systems evolve under continuously changing spatial and temporal conditions. Transportation networks respond to fluctuating demand, atmospheric fields reorganize as storms intensify, and coastal response depends on localized forcing pathways. Modeling such systems requires learning formulations that adapt to evolving structure, operate on irregular geometries, and provide interpretable measures of predictive uncertainty. This dissertation develops a physics-guided spatiotemporal learning framework designed for structured dynamical systems whose governing interactions are neither static nor Euclidean. The central premise is that spatial relationships in these systems are dynamic and geometry-dependent. To represent this behavior, system states are modeled on time-varying …

Security Risks Of Ai-Generated Code In Software Development, Maame Agyekum

Cybersecurity Undergraduate Research Showcase

Artificial Intelligence(AI) has recently forced change globally, public Institutions and as well as national security. Advancement in machine learning, mixed datasets have enabled significantly powerful systems while being capable of operating at a large scale. As innovation and technological advancement increases at rapid pace, issues like a regulation gap where scientific development far exceeds the government’s ability to regulate and establish an effective oversight. As a result, Artificial Intelligence has been controlled by private companies, leading to an industry where speed and profit often outweigh safety and ethical responsibility.

An Integrated Bayesian Network-Based Zero Trust Model To Quantify Cyber Risk In Small-Medium Businesses, Ahmed Abdelmagid

Engineering Management & Systems Engineering Theses & Dissertations

Small-medium businesses (SMBs) play a pivotal role in the worldwide economy as they constitute the most considerable portion of businesses in developed countries like the UK and the US. As such, SMBs are likely targets of cybercrimes by malicious agents because of their vulnerable IT systems. The digital infrastructure of SMBs is more likely to be hit by cyberattacks than large businesses due to many factors that facilitate hackers’ missions. These factors include a limited financial budget devoted to cybersecurity, a lack of knowledge, an underrating of how dangerous cyber threats are, and a shortage of IT expertise. The enormous …

A Causal Inference Methodology For Root-Cause Diagnosis In Nonstationary Industrial Time Series, Cansu Yalim

Knowledge and Creativity Expo

Industrial fault diagnosis lacks a procedure that learns time-varying causal structure from observational time series, makes identifiability limits explicit, and uses intervention-based reasoning to support root-cause assessment under industrial constraints. Although predictive maintenance can reduce downtime, diagnosis is often expert-rule-based or association-driven; pipelines may elevate downstream symptoms alongside true drivers and provide limited guidance on which feasible action would change a fault trajectory under current operating conditions. Because operating phases and fault progression create regime shifts, industrial systems rarely follow a single stable mechanism. This study develops and evaluates a three-stage, regime-aware causal diagnostic protocol based on a time-varying Dynamic …

Iuse: A Gamified Virtual Learning Platform For Connected Vehicle Applications To Enhance Undergraduate Transportation Education, Tianyu Shen, Di Yang, Kai Sun, Hong Yang, Kun Xie, Mansoureh Jeihani

Civil & Environmental Engineering Faculty Publications

Emerging transportation technologies are rapidly reshaping transportation systems and industry practice. However, most transportation undergraduate curricula still emphasize foundational topics such as geometric design, travel demand forecasting, pavements, and soil properties, typically delivered through lecture-centric instruction. While these subjects remain essential to the discipline, they do not fully reflect the pace of technological change or provide sufficient opportunities for experiential learning with modern tools and data. This gap limits students’ exposure to CV concepts and their ability to translate theory into practice.

Focusing on a key emerging technology, connected vehicles (CVs), this paper bridges the above gap by introducing a …

A Transition Framework For Hybrid Tls In Enterprise-Level Systems, William Hadd

Cybersecurity Undergraduate Research Showcase

Enterprises face an immediate need to protect long-lived data against harvest-now, decrypt-later threats while maintaining interoperability across layered systems. With NIST’s first post-quantum standards finalized (ML-KEM, ML-DSA, SLH-DSA) and TLS hybridization drafts defining concrete ECDHE + ML-KEM groups, adoption can begin at the TLS termination layer even before full ecosystem support for post-quantum signatures arrives (NIST, 2024; IETF, 2025). In this paper, we propose an enterprise-oriented transition framework and maturity model for hybrid TLS across email, internal API gateways, and object storage. We specify where to enforce, which hybrid groups to select, and how to prevent silent downgrade with policy …

Comparative Analysis Of Emergent Behaviors Of Three Drone Swarm System Models For Targeting Using Agent-Based Modeling And Simulation, Arsenio T. Gumahad Ii

Engineering Management & Systems Engineering Theses & Dissertations

This dissertation introduces a novel computational simulation framework for evaluating the emergent behaviors of three swarm drone models using Agent-Based Modeling and Simulation (ABMS). The three swarm models are a Leader-Follower swarm model based on Bruckstein's antline theory, a Flocking model based on a simplified Reynolds 'Boids’ model, and a Stigmergic model with pheromone-based coordination. The primary objective of the simulation is to evaluate the performance of these models in delivering a user-defined number of drones of each type to a target area of interest in four separate scenarios, resulting in 50,000 separate simulation trials. Each scenario was structured to …

Component Model Development Of Heat Exchangers, Expanders, And Control Valves For Autonomous Cryogenics Plant Cool-Down, William Harris Buhrig Iv

Mechanical & Aerospace Engineering Theses & Dissertations

The traditional method of cryogenic plant cool-down involves having continuous on-call staff to head into the office at any time to modify the existing multi-layered PID control systems if the on-call staff member detects a significant deviation from the cool-down plan. This thesis aims to outline an effective method for modeling the structure of systems with performance characteristics that deviate from design requirements and from ideal inlet-outlet correspondence, enabling the adjustment and modification of existing control structures across all Thomas Jefferson National Accelerator Facility (JLab) cryogenic refrigeration plants. Analytical Modeling and Gaussian Process Regression (GPR) are applied to model the …

A Methodology For Model-Based Certification, Jay Albert Silverman

Engineering Management & Systems Engineering Theses & Dissertations

A need for a single source of knowledge for design decisions has led to the development of a new field of systems engineering, model-based systems engineering (MBSE) (Delligati, 2014). System certification is defined as affirming that regulatory requirements for a system have been met (Goodwin & Juzaitis, 2006). System certification is a specific application of system validation. System verification can be defined as ensuring that the system of interest (SOI), as designed, is in accordance with the design inputs/requirements. System validation can be defined as ensuring that the SOI, as designed, meets the defined system needs (Wolfgand, Katz, & Wheatcraft, …

Human Activity Recognition And Identification Driven Automated Deep Learning For Time-Series Classification, Justin Alan Gamble

Engineering Management & Systems Engineering Theses & Dissertations

The growing emphasis on Digital Engineering (DE) within the U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) demands advanced methods for leveraging vast time-series data generated by sensor-rich environments. Deep learning models offer promising solutions for complex timeseries classification tasks, however their design and optimization remain highly resource intensive, requiring specialized expertise. This dissertation addresses this challenge by developing and evaluating an Automated Machine Learning (AutoML) framework specifically tailored for the time-series classification task of Human Activity Recognition and Identification (HARI).

A systematic investigation was conducted using the Design Science Research Methodology (DSRM) comparing traditional search strategies of grid search and random search …

Complex System Governance And Cyber Operations, Willie Gernard Mccallister

Engineering Management & Systems Engineering Theses & Dissertations

This dissertation examines the potential integration of Complex System Governance (CSG) within cybersecurity, emphasizing the development of a reference model for Cybersecurity Infrastructures. Traditional strategies for securing digital environments have struggled to address the intricate and dynamic layers inherent in modern cybersecurity systems. The purpose of this research is to explore the applicability of CSG as a framework to assess cybersecurity infrastructure using a case study research design. The research addresses two key questions: (1) How can the CSG reference model be adapted to explore cybersecurity infrastructure? (2) What results from CSG based exploration of cybersecurity infrastructure through a case …

Mission Engineering Competencies Workshop Report: Roles, Responsibilities, And Skills, James D. Moreland, Jr. (Editor), Thomas Irwin, Robert-Allen Baker

Center for Mission Engineering (CME) Publications

This report summarizes the findings of a two-day Old Dominion University Mission Engineering Workshop involving the U.S. Navy, U.S. Marine Corps, U.S. Air Force, National Aeronautics and Space Administration, the University of New South Wales, and Old Dominion University, focused on defining the roles, competencies, and skills essential to Mission Engineering. It presents a structured competency framework and offers recommendations to guide workforce development, training, and cross-agency collaboration in support of complex, mission-driven systems.

Network Analysis Of Sociotechnical Systems, Siva Kadiresan

Engineering Management & Systems Engineering Theses & Dissertations

Sociotechnical networks have become integral frameworks in the accomplishment of organizational objectives by increasingly diverse, cross-functional, and technology-enabled modern teams. In cross-disciplinary teamwork, multiple mediating and moderating factors appear to lend context to the effects of team diversity faultlines on team outcomes. In the several decades of research into teamwork from a network perspective, there has been a paucity of empirical studies that examine how team transition processes and cross-disciplinary connections influence the impact of faultlines on team performance. This study investigates the association among perceived teamwork effectiveness, transition processes, cross-functional team connections, and faultlines in the context of sociotechnical …

A Theoretical Framework For Examination Of Context In Complex System Governance, Meggan M. Schoenberg

Engineering Management & Systems Engineering Theses & Dissertations

“A complex system’s identity and viability are directly related and affected by its context. It is important to identify, monitor, and manage (or mitigate risk) system contextual elements” (Keating C. B. et al., 2022, p. 209). Despite this importance, there is very limited research and literature on complex systems context. This research seeks to expand our understanding of complex system context and improve our ability to govern complex technology development programs effectively. The ability to analyze complex systems and their problems is necessary for this improvement.

A “clear understanding of the specific complex system context is fundamental to the process …

A Sysml V2 Implementation Of A Traceability And Verification Metamodel For “-Ilities”, Pacifique Munezero

Engineering Management & Systems Engineering Theses & Dissertations

Multidisciplinary knowledge and exchange of information are two of the most important aspects of complex system design within the Model-Based Systems Engineering (MBSE) domain. The next generation of systems modeling language, SysML v2, is being developed to improve the precision, expressiveness, interoperability, consistency, integration of the language concepts relative to SysML v1, and the implementation and maturation of MBSE approaches. This research focuses on using SysML v2 to model structured notations for -ilities, referred to as non-functional requirements (NFRs), to address how they can be treated with the same rigor as functional requirements and mapped directly and explicitly from the …

Thermal Management For Optimal Performance Of Polymer Electrolyte Membrane Unitized Regenerative Fuel Cells, Mythy Tran, Ayodeji Demuren

Mechanical & Aerospace Engineering Faculty Publications

Hydrogen is an excellent carrier for energy storage and can be produced from various green and renewable sources. However, the cost of producing hydrogen and converting it to useful energy is much higher than fossil fuel and traditional energy generation and storage systems. Unitized regenerative fuel cells (URFC) maximize utilization of high-cost cells and their components, thus, lowering system capital cost. Improving the URFC efficiency is an effective way to lower its operating cost. This study evaluates utilization of waste heat during operation and recovery strategy to improve system efficiency of Proton Exchange Membrane (PEM) URFC. A COMSOL Multiphysics 3-D …

A Theoretical Framework For Resilience In Complex System Governance (Csg), Susan A. Caskey

Engineering Management & Systems Engineering Theses & Dissertations

This dissertation addresses a critical gap in resilience research within complex systems by developing a theoretical framework for governance resilience—an underexplored area despite governance's crucial role in maintaining system resilience. Using the Complex System Governance (CSG) framework (Keating, Katina, Chesterman, et al., 2022; Keating & Katina, 2019), resilience is conceptualized as a system's ability to absorb disturbances while sustaining performance and enabling adaptive transformation. This involves three main capabilities: persistence, adaptability, and transformation in response to both internal and external pressures.

Through a constructivist grounded theory approach involving iterative coding, memoing, and theory development, this study inductively constructs a governance …

An Agent-Based Approach For Designing A Sustainable Supplier Selection In Stochastic Environment: A Simulation Study, Sheida Etemadidavan

Engineering Management & Systems Engineering Theses & Dissertations

In the 21st century, businesses are constantly striving for competitive advancement and increasing their economic performance in the rapidly changing market. Collaboration with other businesses and partnerships with them are becoming more common. As such, businesses are starting to invest in finding the right partners to stay competitive in an ever-changing business landscape. Suppliers play a crucial role in businesses' decision-making as they provide the materials, goods, and services necessary for a company to operate and succeed. Therefore, their selection, management, and relationship must be carefully considered to ensure optimal performance and profitability. A sustainable framework in a business's relationship …

An Exploratory Case Study Of Complex System Governance Diagnostics, Satya N. Moorthy

Engineering Management & Systems Engineering Theses & Dissertations

The purpose of this study was to conduct an initial diagnosis of the state of Complex System Governance (CSG) using a case study research design. The field of Complex System Governance (CSG), rooted in systems theory and management cybernetics, is the “design, execution, and evolution of the metasystem functions necessary to provide control, communication, coordination, and integration of a complex system.” This research explored literature in the fields of CSG, Organizational Diagnostics, and Performance Measurement as contributing literature streams for CSG Diagnostics and identified a gaps in the literature. This research addresses those gaps by exploring what results from applying …

A Systems Theory-Based Framework For Uncertainty In Complex System Governance, Teresa Anne Crater

Engineering Management & Systems Engineering Theses & Dissertations

Complex systems are all around. A complex system is a system whose collective behavior is more than the behavior exhibited by the individual parts. Such a system is characterized by an exponential increase in information, complexity, ambiguity, emergence, and high levels of uncertainty (Jaradat, 2015). Uncertainty is intrinsic to complex systems. Uncertainty refers to epistemic situations involving imperfect or unknown information. Uncertainty can refer to the chance of certain anticipated outcomes occurring, or it can refer to the unknown events that are not foreseeable as to when or if one might occur. It applies to predictions of future events, to …

Development Of A Conceptual Framework For Complex System Governance (Csg) Performance Measurement, James Hartwell Rutherford

Engineering Management & Systems Engineering Theses & Dissertations

Within the Complex System Governance (CSG) paradigm, system performance is regulated by nine metasystem governance functions, which provide control, communication, coordination, and integration. However, CSG has lacked a fully developed model or language to richly articulate system performance at a conceptual level. The purpose of this research was to develop a systems theory-based conceptual framework to measure the performance of CSG metasystem governance using an inductive research design.

Although ‘good performance’ may seem like an obvious idea, the current literature on performance measurement across many disciplines and contexts contains vastly inconsistent uses of the word ‘performance.’ Both researchers and practitioners …

Reinforcing Digital Trust For Cloud Manufacturing Through Data Provenance Using Ethereum Smart Contracts, Trupti Narayan Rane

Engineering Management & Systems Engineering Theses & Dissertations

Cloud Manufacturing(CMfg) is an advanced manufacturing model that caters to fast-paced agile requirements (Putnik, 2012). For manufacturing complex products that require extensive resources, manufacturers explore advanced manufacturing techniques like CMfg as it becomes infeasible to achieve high standards through complete ownership of manufacturing artifacts (Kuan et al., 2011). CMfg, with other names such as Manufacturing as a Service (MaaS) and Cyber Manufacturing (NSF, 2020), addresses the shortcoming of traditional manufacturing by building a virtual cyber enterprise of geographically distributed entities that manufacture custom products through collaboration.

With manufacturing venturing into cyberspace, Digital Trust issues concerning product quality, data, and intellectual …

Systemic Risk Analysis Of Human Factors In Phishing, Mark Guilford

Engineering Management & Systems Engineering Theses & Dissertations

The scope of this study is the systemic risk of the role of humans in the risk of phishing. The relevance to engineering managers and systems engineers of the risks of phishing attacks is the theft of data which has significantly increased in the past couple of years. Phishing has become a systemic persistent threat to all internet users. Understanding the role of humans in phishing from a systemic perspective is a critical objective towards creating a strong defense against complex and manipulative phishing attacks. The systemic view of phishing concentrates on how phishing affects the entire organizational system, not …

Modeling Wealth Distribution In A Society, Dylan Berns, Peihsien Sun, Adrian V. Gheorghe

Engineering Management & Systems Engineering Faculty Publications

The interconnectedness of social mood, changing dynamics, income inequality, and wealth distribution underscores the complexity of understanding and addressing these issues. This complexity inspires researchers to develop models and conduct further research to gain insights into the mechanisms driving income inequality and wealth distribution. By studying these phenomena more comprehensively, one can aim to develop strategies and policies that promote a more equitable distribution of wealth and opportunities, thereby fostering social stability and economic prosperity. In the present paper, there was build a model on wealth distribution and income inequality to help people understand the complexities of wealth inequality and …

Machine-Assisted Discovery Of Integrable Symplectic Mappings, T. Zolkin, Y. Kharkov, S. Nagaitsev

Physics Faculty Publications

We present a new automated method for finding integrable symplectic maps of the plane. These dynamical systems possess a hidden symmetry associated with an existence of conserved quantities, i.e., integrals of motion. The core idea of the algorithm is based on the knowledge that the evolution of an integrable system in the phase space is restricted to a lower-dimensional submanifold. Limiting ourselves to polygon invariants of motion, we analyze the shape of individual trajectories thus successfully distinguishing integrable motion from chaotic cases. For example, our method rediscovers some of the famous McMillan-Suris integrable mappings and ultradiscrete Painlevé equations. In total, …

Computational Decision Support For Socio-Technical Awareness Of Land-Use Planning Under Complexity—A Dam Resilience Planning Case Study, Andreas Tolk, Jennifer A. Richkus, F. Leron Shults, Wesley J. Wildman

VMASC Publications

Land-use planning for modern societies requires technical competence as well as social competence. We therefore propose an integrative solution enabling better land-use planning and management through better-informed decision-making. We adapt a method developed for cross-disciplinary team building to identify the stakeholders and their various objectives and value systems. We use these results to populate artificial societies embedded into a dynamic data analytics framework as a tool to identify, explore, and visualize the challenges resulting from the different objectives and value systems in land-use planning and management. To prove the feasibility of the proposed solution, we present two use cases from …

A Systems Theory-Based Framework For Environmental Scanning In Complex System Governance, Dale E. Baugh

Engineering Management & Systems Engineering Theses & Dissertations

The purpose of this research was to develop a Systems Theory-based framework for Environmental Scanning (ES) in Complex System Governance (CSG) using an inductive research design. Complexity and uncertainty are normal for external environments in which today’s systems (organizations) exist. These environmental characteristics provide impetus for researchers to focus on organizational planning for disruptive external forces that could threaten system stability and future system existence. The ES function supports the requisite governance metasystemic functions to be enabled, executed, and evolved sufficiently well to promote continuous system viability. In this research the functioning of ES was examined from a diverse literature-based …

Learning Curve Characterization Within Complex Low-Rate Production Environments, Robert J. Gies

Engineering Management & Systems Engineering Theses & Dissertations

Traditional and current learning curve approaches, methods, and theories were deficient when addressing complex low-rate production systems. The purpose of this research was to address this problem and develop a learning curve approach that characterizes learning in low-rate production environments such as naval ship construction. This research identified the principal aspects that influence learning within this environment and developed a learning characterization more reflective of this environment.

There obviously exists a large body of knowledge covering learning. However, the research contained herein addresses learning as it relates to learning curves in low-rate production environments, such as naval shipbuilding. The various …