Economics Commons^™

Employment And Self-Rated Depression Among Older Persons In Thailand, Seung Chun Paek, Ning Jackie Zhang

Journal of Health Research

Background: Increasing attention has been paid to productive engagement as an important protective factor against depression in older persons. This study assessed the impact of employment on self-rated depression among older persons in Thailand using a matched sample obtained from a propensity score matching method.

Methods: This study involved a cross-sectional secondary data analysis using the 2019 Health and Welfare Survey dataset. Descriptive analysis and ordered logistic regressions were used.

Results: The effect of employment was negative for self-rated depression with an adjusted odds ratio (AOR) of 1.417. This indicates that employment could reduce self-rated depression among older …

Optimal Inference For Spot Regressions, Tim Bollerslev, Jia Li, Yuexuan Ren

Research Collection School Of Economics

Betas from return regressions are commonly used to measure systematic financial market risks. "Good" beta measurements are essential for a range of empirical inquiries in finance and macroeconomics. We introduce a novel econometric framework for the nonparametric estimation of time-varying betas with high-frequency data. The "local Gaussian" property of the generic continuous-time benchmark model enables optimal "finite-sample" inference in a well-defined sense. It also affords more reliable inference in empirically realistic settings compared to conventional large-sample approaches. Two applications pertaining to the tracking performance of leveraged ETFs and an intraday event study illustrate the practical usefulness of the new procedures.

St. Cloud Area Quarterly Business Report, Vol. 26, No. 1, King Banaian, Mana Komai Molle

St. Cloud Area Quarterly Business Report

Area employment is expected to experience only a normal seasonal increase through mid-year. Survey results were slightly better than the most recent quarter. Significant pressures exist to increase wages, and in some cases firms did not think they could raise prices as well. Firms were evenly split between thinking affordable childcare and workforce housing were the most needed policies to address workforce needs.

“Safe” Annuity Retirement Products And A Possible Us Retirement Crisis, Thomas E. Lambert, Christopher B. Tobe

Faculty Scholarship

This paper examines a looming possible crisis in many Americans’ retirement plans due to the proliferation of annuity products in their retirement investment portfolios. As defined benefit pension plans have almost completely disappeared as a means of retirement savings and have been replaced by defined contribution retirement plans over the last 40 to 50 years, a great number of private and public sector defined contribution retirement plans have become laden with insurance contracts called annuities. Of the remaining solid defined benefit plans many, through a process called Pension Risk Transfer are being converted to high-risk single entity annuities. Such products …

Collectible Pricing And Collector Utility: The Role Of Production Commitments, Corey J.M. Williams, Kole Reddig, Adam Nowak

Economics Faculty Working Papers Series

This paper investigates the effect of production commitments on consumers of collectable goods. Using data on prices for Magic: The Gathering trading cards, we estimate that the reprinting of certain card varieties caused a 34% decrease in the relative price of reprinted cards. We interpret this estimate with a model of a forward-looking consumer that views collectibles as both a source of enjoyment and a store of wealth. Using a mapping between structural parameters of the model and difference-in-differences regression parameters, we compute lifetime discounted utility decreased by as much as 14% for collectors holding mainly reprinted cards.

The Economic Costs Of Political Instability: Evidence From Pakistan, Shahid Hussain, Falik Shear

Business Review

This study analyses the impact of Political Instability (PI) on economic growth. PI is referred as the frequent regime or government changes in a country. PI affects economic growth due to inconsistent and uncertain government policies regarding investment and trade, tax system, government spending and fiscal balance, debt structure, monetary policy, exchange rates and inflation. PI coupled with these factors affects internal and external investments and ultimately future economic growth rates. Employing data from Pakistan for the period of 1984-2018, a country with a long history of various episodes of political instability under various democratic and non-democratic regimes, this study …

The Influence Of Societal Nationalist Sentiment On Trade Flows, Douglas Dow, Ilya Cuypers

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

In recent years, the world has witnessed a backlash against globalization and a rise in populist and nationalist movements around the world. However, there appears to be little empirical research concerning how these movements, and especially nationalist sentiment, actually influence trade. Therefore, we explore how and when nationalist sentiment within a country influences trade. Our results indicate that the effect of nationalist sentiment on imports is mediated by lower participation in free trade agreements (FTAs) but not via tariffs. Furthermore, we are unable to confirm support for a direct effect of nationalist sentiment on imports, as predicted by the consumer …

Taking Pleasure In Distinction: Unlocking Specialty Coffee Preference, Ondrej Mitas, Danny D. Han, Belle Struijer, Lotte Willems, Thomas H. Chatwick

Journal of Global Business Insights

Specialty coffee, comprising a tenth of the global coffee trade, is distinguished by its strict quality requirements and traceable origins. The diverse flavor profiles of specialty coffee raise demands on providers to serve individual taste preferences. Prior research has not sufficiently explored how to predict customer preferences for specific flavor profiles or how these preferences influence behavioral intentions such as revisiting or recommending a café. This study hypothesized that customer involvement, the extrinsic factors of coffee experience, and culinary risk-taking would predict flavor preference, which would in turn affect behavioral intentions. In an experiment involving 47 participants, individuals tasted and …

Broadly Shared Local Economic Success Since 2000: New Measures And New Lessons For Communities, Timothy J. Bartik, Brad J. Hershbein, Kathleen Bolter, Kyle Huisman, W.E. Upjohn Institute For Employment Research

Reports

In recent decades, many local labor markets—especially those in former industrial areas—have experienced lagging employment rates, hourly wages, and annual earnings. Even in places that have thrived, disadvantaged racial and ethnic groups and those with less education have often fared poorly, and long-term growth has bypassed many Americans at the middle and bottom of the income distribution. This report examines the relative economic success over the past two decades (prior to the COVID pandemic) of different local labor markets throughout the United States, both for residents overall and for those of different demographic groups. We construct a new, publicly available …

Bootstrap Inference For Quantile Treatment Effects In Randomized Experiments With Matched Pairs, Liang Jiang, Xiaobin Liu, Peter C B Phillips, Yichong Zhang

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper examines methods of inference concerning quantile treatment effects (QTEs) in randomized experiments with matched-pairs designs (MPDs). Standard multiplier bootstrap inference fails to capture the negative dependence of observations within each pair and is therefore conservative. Analytical inference involves estimating multiple functional quantities that require several tuning parameters. Instead, this paper proposes two bootstrap methods that can consistently approximate the limit distribution of the original QTE estimator and lessen the burden of tuning parameter choice. Most especially, the inverse propensity score weighted multiplier bootstrap can be implemented without knowledge of pair identities.

Migration And Resource Misallocation In China, Xiaolu Li, Lin Ma, Yang Tang

Research Collection School Of Economics

We structurally estimate the firm-level frictions across prefectures in China and quantify their aggregate and distributional implications. Based on a general equilibrium model with input and output distortions and migration, we show that the firm-level frictions are less dispersed and less correlated with firm productivity in richer prefectures. Counterfactual exercises show that reducing the within-prefecture misallocation increases aggregate welfare, discourages migration toward large prefectures, and reduces spatial inequality. Moreover, internal migration alleviates micro-frictions’ impacts on aggregate welfare and worsens their effects on spatial inequality.

The Distributional Impacts Of Transportation Networks In China, Lin Ma, Yang Tang

Research Collection School Of Economics

We document that the quality of roads and railroads vary substantially over time and space in China, and neglecting these variations biases the distributional impacts of transportation networks. To account for quality differences, we construct a new panel dataset and approximate quality using the design speed of roads and railroads that varies by vintage, class, and terrain at the pixel level. We then build a dynamic spatial general equilibrium model for multiple modes, transportation routes, and forward-looking migration decisions. Our findings demonstrate that disregarding quality differences leads to a median bias of approximately 31% in estimating real wage growth rates …

Robust Inference On Correlation Under General Heterogeneity, Liudas Giraitis, Yuefei Li, Peter C. B. Phillips

Research Collection School Of Economics

Considerable evidence in past research shows size distortion in standard tests for zero autocorrelation or zero cross-correlation when time series are not independent identically distributed random variables, pointing to the need for more robust procedures. Recent tests for serial correlation and cross-correlation in Dalla, Giraitis, and Phillips (2022) provide a more robust approach, allowing for heteroskedasticity and dependence in uncorrelated data under restrictions that require a smooth, slowly-evolving deterministic heteroskedasticity process. The present work removes those restrictions and validates the robust testing methodology for a wider class of innovations and regression residuals allowing for heteroscedastic uncorrelated and non-stationary data settings. …

The Interplay Of Interdependence And Correlation In Bilateral Trade, Takashi Kunimoto, Cuiling Zhang

Research Collection School Of Economics

Crémer and McLean (1988) show that the seller can extract full surplus almost always by an incentive compatible, individually rational mechanism in a single-unit auction model with a finite type space in which agents' beliefs are correlated and their valuations can be interdependent. We first show that this paradoxically positive result can be extended to a model of bilateral trades. To make it more realistic, we investigate when ex-post efficiency and ex-post budget balance in bilateral trades can also be achieved by an incentive compatible, individually rational mechanism. We identify a necessary condition for the existence of such mechanisms and …

Borderplex Business Barometer, Volume 8, Number 3, Thomas M. Fullerton Jr., Steven L. Fullerton

Border Region Modeling Project

No abstract provided.

Robust Implementation In Rationalizable Strategies In General Mechanisms, Takashi Kunimoto, Rene Saran

Research Collection School Of Economics

A social choice function (SCF) is robustly implementable in rationalizable strate-gies if every rationalizable strategy profile on every type space results in outcomes consistent with it. First, we establish an equivalence between robust implementation in rationalizable strategies and “weak rationalizable implementation”. Second, using the equivalence result, we identify weak robust monotonicity as a necessary and al-most sufficient condition for robust implementation in rationalizable strategies. This exhibits a contrast with robust implementation in interim equilibria, i.e., every equilib-rium on every type space achieves outcomes consistent with the SCF. Bergemann and Morris (2011) show that strict robust monotonicity is a necessary and …

Horse Racing And Historical Horse Racing’S Impact On The Kentucky Economy: Possible Hhr Saturation?, Thomas E. Lambert

Faculty Scholarship

The Commonwealth of Kentucky currently has 5 thoroughbred racing tracks and 3 harness racing tracks (Kentucky Horse Racing Commission 2023 and Mint Julep Louisville 2021). As Table 1 below shows, the industry employees roughly 7,000 people (direct jobs), and these jobs annually support another 2,000 jobs or so throughout the state. These 2,000 jobs are jobs that are provided by the suppliers to the horse race tracks (indirect jobs) and jobs that are created by the spending of the race track employees and the employees of suppliers on food, housing, transportation, and clothing by vendors and retailers throughout the state …

Policies For Place: How To Make Sustainable Investments In Communities, Kathleen Bolter, Timothy J. Bartik, Brad J. Hershbein, Michelle Miller-Adams, Lee Adams, Brian J. Asquith, Alfonso Hernandez, Kyle Huisman, Iryna V. Lendel, Gabrielle Pepin, Bridget F. Timmeney, Beth C. Truesdale, Yulya Truskinovsky

Reports

No abstract provided.

Covid-19 And Its Impact On Multinational Enterprises: A Modified Value At Risk Approach, Kashi Khazeh, Leonard Arvi, Robert C. Winder

Journal of Global Business Insights

Multinational enterprises (MNEs) operating across different currencies are exposed to exchange rate risk. They may utilize a variety of tools to mitigate that risk. While there are different types of exchange rate risk, this study focuses specifically on the ongoing exposure of cash flow transactions denominated in the currencies of seven different developed countries. Since other types of risk (i.e., economic and translation) are evaluated based on yearly results, they are not considered in this study. The modified value-at-risk (MVaR) model is employed to estimate the maximum one-period losses during the eighteen months before the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic …

Panel Data Models With Time-Varying Latent Group Structures, Yiren Wang, Peter C. B. Phillips, Liangjun Su

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper considers a linear panel model with interactive fixed effects and unobserved individual and time heterogeneities that are captured by some latent group structures and an unknown structural break, respectively. To enhance realism, the model may have different numbers of groups and/or different group memberships before and after the break. With preliminary nuclear norm regularized estimation followed by row- and column-wise linear regressions, we estimate the break point based on the idea of binary segmentation and the latent group structures together with the number of groups before and after the break by sequential testing K-means algorithm simultaneously. It is …