Economics Commons^™

Identifying Common Trend Determinants In Panel Data, Yoonseok Lee, Peter C. Phillips, Suyong Song, Donggyu Sul

Center for Policy Research

This paper develops a novel method for identifying observable determinants of latent common trends in nonstationary panel data, which are typically removed or controlled in two-way fixed effects regressions. By examining cross sectional dispersion processes, we assess whether panel series exhibit distributional convergence toward specific observed time series, revealing them as long run determinants of the underlying latent trend. The approach also offers a new perspective on cointegration between time series and panel data, focusing on the relative variation of the panel data with respect to the cointegration error. Applying this method to U.S. state-level crime rates demonstrates that the …

Learning From The Storm: The Impact Of Hurricane Experience On Future Disaster Preparedness, Eren Bilen, Tamara Sheldon, Crystal Zhan

Faculty Publications

Hurricanes and tropical cyclones have become more severe over the past 40 years and are expected to intensify in the future due to climate change. In this paper, we seek to understand how natural disaster experiences shape precautionary economic behaviors in response to future risks. We combine daily, household-level consumer goods purchase data from 2008-2018 with hurricane hit and warning data and use propensity score trimming to obtain a sample of households with a similar probability of receiving a hurricane warning to mitigate the problem of endogenous residential sorting. Using a triple difference-in-differences model, we find that past hurricane experience …

Learning From The Storm: The Impact Of Hurricane Experience On Future Disaster Preparedness, Eren Bilen, Tamara Sheldon, Yi Crystal Zhan

Faculty Publications

Hurricanes and tropical cyclones have become more severe over the past 40 years and are expected to intensify in the future due to climate change. In this paper, we seek to understand how natural disaster experiences shape precautionary economic behaviors in response to future risks. We combine daily, household-level consumer goods purchase data from 2008-2018 with hurricane hit and warning data and use propensity score trimming to obtain a sample of households with a similar probability of receiving a hurricane warning to mitigate the problem of endogenous residential sorting. Using a triple difference-in-differences model, we find that past hurricane experience …

Black Swans And Financial Stability: A Framework For Building Resilience, Daniel J. Barth, Stacey L. Schreft

Journal of Financial Crises

This article refines the concept of black swans, typically described as highly unlikely and catastrophic events, to be internally consistent. It explores features of the financial system that prevent the eradication of black swans. The main implication is the need to enhance the financial system’s resilience to withstand unforeseen events rather than focus on past crises. The article introduces a “resilience principle” for designing official-sector policies that can achieve such goals. The principle calls for policies that are adaptable, universal, and systemic. The article provides examples of policies with these features, assuming that the official sector is not better positioned …

Combating Iuu Fishing In The South American Pacific: An Opportunity To Counter Chinese Influence Closer To Home, Alexander E. Goodno

Joint Force Quarterly

A relatively small enterprise that began three decades ago in response to dwindling Chinese squid fisheries, China’s South American distant water fishing fleet has grown exponentially to now number nearly 500 vessels and creates a growing problem for the Pacific coastal nations of South America. By establishing itself at the forefront in combatting illegal, unregulated, and unreported fishing (IUUF) activities off the Pacific coast of South America, the United States can strengthen its role as a leader in the Western Hemisphere and counter growing Chinese influence in South America. This paper will demonstrate how America can achieve this end by …

The Irrelevance Of Filing Speed: Evidence From A Regulatory Reporting Discontinuity, Bryson Mumford

Undergraduate Honors Theses

Does faster financial reporting increase firm value? I exploit the $700 million public float threshold in SEC Rule 12b-2, which imposes a 60-day Form 10-K filing deadline for large accelerated filers relative to 75 days for accelerated filers. Using a fuzzy regression discontinuity design, I show that crossing the threshold sharply increases the likelihood of Large Accelerated Filer status and reduces filing lags by approximately one week, with no evidence of concurrent changes in mandated audit quality. Despite this exogenous acceleration in information disclosure, I fail to reject the null hypothesis that there are no effects on firm valuation (Tobin’s …

Segmentation And Morphometry Of Intracranial Internal Carotid Artery Calcification In Relation To Brain Atrophy, Xiao Xu, Nikhil N. Chaudhari, Phoebe E. Imms, Nahian F. Chowdhury, Fangyun C. Liu, Jorge A. Solis Galvan, Bavrina Bigjahan, Grant Schleifer, Maria Ashna, Blake Hannagan, Giuseppe Barisano, Daniel K. Cummings, Daniel Eid Rodriguez, Paul L. Hooper, Edmond Seabright, Randall C. Thompson, Benjamin C. Trumble, Michael D. Gurven, Jonathan Stieglitz, Caleb E. Finch, M. Linda Sutherland, James D. Sutherland, Helena C. Chui, Margaret Gatz, Wendy J. Mack, Hillard Kaplan, Andrei Irimia

ESI Publications

Purpose

Intracranial internal carotid artery calcification (iICAC) is a form of intracranial arteriosclerosis and is associated with an elevated risk of stroke and dementia. However, iICAC’s relationship with brain atrophy remains poorly understood. We aimed to automatically quantify iICAC morphometric characteristics and evaluate their associations with regional brain volumes (BVs).

Methods

We developed an automated approach to compute iICAC surface area and thickness from CT brain scans in a sample of physically active South American subsistence farmers (n = 1,232, age range: 40 years to 92 years, 48.1% female, 794 Tsimane and 438 Moseten). Linear regression models were used …

Influential Factors In Agricultural Technology Adoption By Maize Farmers In Tanzania: Insights From The 2020–21 National Panel Survey, Rebecca Yauleni, Wiggins Kyatikila, Cornel Joseph

Journal of Humanities and Social Sciences

Abstract

In many developing countries, agriculture remains a vital source of food, employment, and income. The adoption of agricultural technologies can boost farm revenue and productivity, reduce food insecurity, and lessen poverty. This study investigates the main factors influencing farmers’ decisions to adopt fertilizers, improved seeds, soil conservation practices, and pesticides in Tanzania. The analysis uses cross-sectional data from the fifth wave of the Tanzania National Panel Survey (TNPS), and employs an ordered probit model. The findings revealed that access to extension services, higher household years of schooling, poor soil quality, livestock ownership, and use of hired labour significantly increase …

Cost-Effectiveness Of Blood-Based Fibrosis Screening In High-Risk Metabolic Liver Diseases With Emerging Therapies, Wanyi Chen, Stephanie T. Chang, Ramsey C. Cheung, Donald B. Chalfin, Kinpritma Sangha, Szu-Yu Zoe Kao, Artem T. Boltyenkov

College of Population Health Faculty Papers

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD) remains a global public health threat. With emerging effective pharmacologic therapies, early identification of significant fibrosis in primary care is critical. We evaluated the cost-effectiveness of blood-based noninvasive tests incorporating real-world diagnostic performance in the contemporary MASLD treatment era.

METHODS: We developed a decision-analytic model for MASLD natural history and treatment to compare 6 noninvasive test strategies using Fibrosis-4 (FIB-4) and/or enhanced liver fibrosis (ELF) tests at varying cutoffs. Patients identified with significant fibrosis were referred for hepatology staging (biopsy and/or imaging-based), and eligible individuals were considered for Resmetirom ($47,400/y; mean …

Retirement Rankings In The Mountain West, 2025, Isabelle G. Graham, Mia Tschan, Anthony Arroyo, Kristian Thymianos, Caitlin J. Saladino, William E. Brown Jr.

Demography

This fact sheet reports 2025 data on retirement rankings in the five Mountain West states of Arizona, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, and Utah. The Bankrate report, “America’s best states to retire in 2025: New Hampshire takes the top spot,” presents data on retirement rankings for all 50 U.S. states. This fact sheet focuses on the overall retirement rank and individual retirement category rankings for each Mountain West state.

Reared In Disaster: The Long-Run Harm From Childhood Storm Exposure, Lucas Kaplan

Center for Policy Research

I estimate how exposure to natural disasters in childhood shapes earnings and schooling later in life, using newly assembled county-date disaster records dating back to 1951 linked to residential histories in the NLSY79. I compare adult outcomes for children who are born in the same county but due to disaster timing experience different amounts of exposure, finding that severe and repeat disasters reduce earnings. I show that school-age disaster exposure drives long-run harm: exposure between ages 5 and 10 reduces educational attainment, while exposure between ages 10 and 15 reduces adult earnings. Finally, Black individuals suffer larger earnings losses than …

Esg, Institutional Investors, And Financing Constraints: Evidence From Chinese Listed Companies, Zhu Yinquan

Student Works (2020-2029)

This thesis examines the relationship between Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) performance and financing constraints, placing particular emphasis on the moderating role of institutional investors in listed Chinese firms. Drawing on information asymmetry theory, the study argues that ESG performance can reduce financing constrains by narrowing informational discrepancies between firms and external capital providers. While prior research has largely focused on the direct effects of ESG on financing, limited attention has been given to the ways in which institutional investors who are both major users of ESG information and active participants in corporate governance shape this relationship. China’s capital market …

How Do Minimum Wages Affect Workplace Injuries?, Michael Davies, R. Jisung Park, Anna Stansbury

Upjohn Institute Policy and Research Briefs

No abstract provided.

Minimum Wages And Workplace Injuries, Michael Davies, R. Jisung Park, Anna Stansbury

Upjohn Institute Working Papers

How do minimum wage changes affect workplace amenities? Using the universe of claims from California, the US’ largest workers’ compensation system, over 2000-2019, we exploit geographic variation in state- and city-level minimum wages and local occupation-level variation in exposure to minimum wage changes to estimate whether minimum wage increases affect the rate of workplace injuries. We find a large adverse effect of raising minimum wages on injuries. A 10% increase in the minimum wage increases the injury rate by 7.2% in an occupation-metro area labor market which is fully exposed to the minimum wage increase. Our results imply an elasticity …

Time Invariant Variables In The Mundlak And Hausman-Taylor Panel Data Models, Badi H. Baltagi, Long Liu

Center for Policy Research

This paper shows that the classic augmented Mundlak (1978) regression yields the between estimator for time-invariant variables. It is well known that the estimates of the time varying variables yield the fixed effects estimates. While the latter are consistent for this correlated random effects model, the between estimates are not. The between estimator is consistent only when the Hausman (1978) test does not reject the null based on between versus fixed effects. An alternative modified Hausman and Taylor (1981) estimator is proposed. Monte Carlo experiments are performed to compare various estimators under a correlated random effects as well as a …

Two Special Spatial Weight Matrices And Their Effects On Estimation And Testing In Spatial Regressions, Badi H. Baltagi, Long Liu

Center for Policy Research

This paper collects in one place some of the consequences of using two special spatial weight matrices in the spatial econometrics literature. The two weight matrices considered are the equal weight spatial matrix and the complete bipartite network. In particular, we summarize the effects of these special weight matrices on the statistical properties of commonly used spatial estimators as well as commonly used tests for spatial dependence.

How Changes In Mexican Immigration To The United States Affect Mexican Labor Markets, Gonzalo Ares De Parga-Regalado, Marta Prato

Upjohn Institute Policy and Research Briefs

No abstract provided.

Us‐China Trade War: Heterogeneous Effects On The Us Consumer, Michael Dedad, Sucharita Ghosh

University Research

This paper meticulously investigates how the US-China trade war of 2018–19 affected nondurable consumption patterns for households across the United States. Using highly granular NielsenIQ barcode scanner data, we find that a 1 percentage point (pp) increase in a county's tariff exposure growth was associated with a decrease in nondurable consumption growth ranging between 0.593 pp and 2.163 pp. Notably, this relationship existed for employed households but not for those without employment, and it was not confined to those working in manufacturing and farming. Additionally, households with children had lower consumption growth as tariff exposure increased, and the relationship was …

Flex, Pivot, Sustain: Adaptive Design Of Promise Programs, Michelle Miller-Adams, Jennifer Iriti

Reports

The design of a Promise program or place-based college scholarship requires community partners to make three key decisions: 1) Which students are eligible, 2) Where can students use the scholarship?, and 3) How should the scholarship be structured? Changes in available funding may affect all three decisions. This practice brief, developed in conjunction with the Kresge Foundation, lays out key principles for redesigning Promise programs when available funding changes, providing three case study examples to illustrate how program officials navigated redesign choices.

The Effects Of Declining U.S. Immigration On Local Labor Markets In Mexico, Gonzalo Ares De Parga-Regalado, Marta Prato

Upjohn Institute Working Papers

This paper examines how declining migration opportunities to the United States affect local labor markets in Mexico. Using novel micro-level data from consular identification cards and deportations, we link individuals’ Mexican municipalities of origin to their U.S. destination states. We implement a shift-share design based on historical migration networks and exploit regional variation in exposure to changes in U.S. migration flows between 2017 and 2022 to identify the local labor market effects of reduced emigration while controlling for involuntary repatriations. While we find no impact on overall employment rates, regions more exposed to the decline in migration experience an increase …