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Midwest Social Sciences Journal

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There Is Turbulence In The Vuca World: A Path To Learning From The Micro- Environments Of Decision-Makers And Their Leadership Acumen, Bernard L. Simonin, Paul Lambert

Arab Economic and Business Journal

Decision-makers and researchers continue to ponder on how to cope with today’s volatile, uncertain, complex, and ambiguous environments (VUCA). The catch-all expression “it is a VUCA world” has gained popularity while raising some concerns on its applicability. To date, much of the focus has been in association with large-scale events of a negative nature; research has remained mostly conceptual with almost no extensive empirical investigation centered on the fully unpacked VUCA construct. This study examines the interplay between VUCA elements, turbulence, and disruption; it introduces a turbulence diagnostic tool for leadership and explores patterns of variability across types of triggering …

Examining The Influence Of Organisational And Leadership Knowledge On Resilience During Economic Downturns-A Case Study For Sme Success, Dr. Aloma Jayasundera, Dr. Rubhesh Jha

Arab Economic and Business Journal

This study investigates how organisational and leadership knowledge impacts the resilience of Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs) during economic downturns, focussing on a foreign-owned business processes and Information Consulting (IT) consulting company in Bahrain. This is a mixed-methods approach that integrates qualitative and quantitative data, including thematic analysis and Structural Equation Modelling (PLS-SEM). This study shows that an emphasis on external problems caused the company to disregard important internal challenges. The findings highlight the need for better crisis management and digital strategies to strengthen the organisation from within and create a better workplace culture. This study contributes new insights into …

Dual Mechanisms Of External Pressure: The Impact Of Sanctions And Aid On State Capacity In Iraq And Jordan, Emily P. White

Global Tides

This essay examines the influence of external economic pressures on state capacity in the Middle East through a comparative analysis of Iraq and Jordan. In the late twentieth century, both states faced fiscal shocks, including rising prices for staple goods, elevated unemployment, and revenue shortfalls that constrained regime distributive capacity. Against this backdrop of mounting domestic volatility, contrasting instruments of international economic statecraft were employed, namely, comprehensive UN sanctions against Iraq and sustained Western-led foreign aid to Jordan. Through exogenous state-building, foreign actors sought to exert punitive leverage in Iraq and pursue an agenda-setting partnership in Jordan. Despite pursuing different …

Relationship Between Change In Unrealized Gains Or Losses Of Afs Securities And Credit Spreads Of U.S. Life Insurance Companies, Kwang Liang Yeo

Dissertations and Theses Collection (Open Access)

This study evaluates the transmission of unrealized fair value accounting losses to credit default risk within the United States life insurance sector during a period of unprecedented monetary tightening. Integrating a pre-specified confirmatory econometric framework with a text-based exploratory analysis of regulatory filings, we examine how changes in Other Comprehensive Income (OCI) and benchmark interest rate dynamics shape market perceptions of insurer default probability. Our findings reveal that credit default swap markets do not price OCI variations contemporaneously; instead, they reflect a structural one-quarter pricing lag that aligns with the regulatory timeline of financial disclosures. Furthermore, the relationship between interest …

Research On The Impact Of Industrial-Financial Cooperation On Corporate R&D Investment, Jiayin Yin

Dissertations and Theses Collection (Open Access)

The national industrial-financial cooperation pilot policy represents a key strategic initiative to implement China's strategy of building a "financial powerhouse" and guide financial resources toward empowering high-quality development in the real economy. In December 2016, four central government departments in China jointly announced the first batch of national industrial-financial cooperation pilot cities. Leveraging this quasi-natural experiment, this study comprehensively evaluates the impact of the pilot policy on corporate R&D investment activities using a sample of Chinese A-share listed companies from 2014 to 2019.

Research findings indicate: (1) The industrial-financial cooperation pilot policy significantly increases enterprises' R&D investment levels. Specifically, compared …

Strategic Economic Evaluation Of Microsoft's Post-Acquisition Gaming Portfolio, Brett Hancock, Daniela Orta Castaneda, Travis Stevens, M. Affan Badar

Symposium Projects

Microsoft Gaming is a gaming and entertainment division of Microsoft. In 2023 Microsoft bought Activision Blizzard, another industry leader. Rapidly changing industry and increased operation costs have created challenges. Sound financial analysis required to maintain company profitability and health. The purpose of this study is to analyze the economic data to recommend potential areas of investment and consolidation.

Search Costs, Intermediation, And Trade: Experimental Evidence From Ugandan Agricultural Markets, Lauren Falcao Bergquist, Craig Mcintosh, Meredith Startz

Discussion Papers

We study the large-scale experimental rollout of a platform that reduced search and matching frictions in Ugandan agricultural markets by connecting buyers and sellers. Market integration improved substantially: trade increased and price gaps fell. Interpreting the experiment through a trade model, we estimate treatment effects accounting for equilibrium changes that impact control markets. The intervention reduced fixed trade costs by 20% and increased trade flows between treated markets by 7% and across all markets by 1%. Scale economies shaped engagement:few farmers used the platform, but equilibrium price convergence from improved arbitrage by larger traders passed through to farm revenue.

The Impact Of Legalized Sports Betting On Divorce, Alvaro Muniz-Fernandez, Brad Humphreys, Jane E. Ruseski

Economics Faculty Working Papers Series

This paper estimates the causal effect of legalization of sports betting on marital dissolution. We exploit the staggered legalization of sports betting in states following the Murphy v. NCAA (2018) Supreme Court as a source of exogenous variation, using a U.S. state-year panel from 2012 to 2023. Implementing a difference-in-differences design, we find that legalization increases both the flow and stock of divorces: the annual divorce rate and the share of divorced men rise by 0.107 and 0.276 percentage points, respectively. These effects accumulate gradually over the post-treatment period, consistent with a mechanism operating through the slow deterioration of household …

Wage Gap Disclosure In The Tropics, Pablo Castro, Mayara Felix, Ieda Matavelli, Bobak Pakzad-Hurson

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

We evaluate the effects of mandatory disclosures of firm-specific gender wage gaps in Brazil—the first developing country to enact a large-scale pay transparency law. The mandate took effect in 2023, automatically releasing to the public government-curated reports showing firm-specific gender wage gaps, separately by major occupational groups, for formal sector firms with 100 employees or more. Regression discontinuity estimates on outcomes one year after the release show that the mandated disclosures had no effects on the gender wage ratio, average wages for men or women, or the number of occupations within firms. We document that gender wage gaps persist in …

How Wasteful Is Signaling?, Alex Frankel, Navin Kartik

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

Signaling is wasteful. But how wasteful? We study the fraction of surplus dissipated in a separating equilibrium. For isoelastic environments, this waste ratio has a simple formula: β/(β + σ), where β is the benefit elasticity (reward to higher perception) and σ is the elasticity of higher types’ relative cost advantage. The ratio is constant across types and is independent of other parameters, including convexity of cost in the signal. We show that the directional effects of β and σ on waste extend to non-isoelastic environments.

From Conversations To Mechanisms: Aligning Advertiser Incentives In Ai-Powered Product Recommendations, Dirk Bergemann, Marek Bojko, Paul Dütting, Renato Paes Leme, Haifeng Xu, Song Zuo

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

We study the design of efficient dynamic recommendation systems, such as AI shopping assistants, in which a platform interacts with a user over multiple rounds to identify the most suitable product among those offered by advertisers. Advertisers have multi-dimensional private information: their private value from a purchase and private information about the user’s preferences. In each round, the platform displays recommendations; the user learns product characteristics of the shown items and then chooses whether to purchase, exit without purchasing, or submit a new query. These actions generate a stream of feedback—purchase, exit, and follow-up queries—that is informative about the user’s …

Cross-Border Product Adoption: Individual Imports, Migrant Networks, And Domestic Retailers, David Argente, Esteban Méndez, Diana Van Patten

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

This paper studies how new varieties enter markets and become locally available. We provide causal evidence of demand externalities that operate in two steps. First, information about new varieties diffuses directly through real-world social ties among consumers. Second, early purchases generate an indirect spillover to firms: local retailers learn from 'pioneer' consumers which new varieties are most likely to succeed and adjust their product offerings accordingly. We study this process in the context of direct-to-consumer imports. Using customs records on individuals' purchases matched to population-wide social networks, international migrant links, and retailer catchment areas, we document economically meaningful demand externalities. …

Financial Literacy And Fraud Vulnerability In Digital Finance: Evidence From The 2024 Nfcs, Mercedes Palacios Diaz

Posters - 2026

Digital finance has expanded rapidly through fintech platforms and cryptocurrency markets, increasing access to financial services while also exposing individuals to higher levels of financial fraud. Most research treats fraud vulnerability as a single outcome, without distinguishing between financial loss and the ability to recognize scams. This study examines how financial literacy shapes fraud vulnerability through its effects on fraud victimization and scam awareness, highlighting its dual role in reducing financial losses and improving scam recognition. Fraud vulnerability is therefore analyzed across two distinct dimensions: realized financial loss and scam awareness.

Essays On Family Economics, Culture, Inequality, And Growth, Rouzhi Liang

Economics Theses and Dissertations

This dissertation consists of essays on how family resource allocation and cultural values shape innovation, inequality, and long-run economic development. Across the chapters, I combine quantitative modeling and empirical analysis to understand the determinants of inequality and long-run growth.

Chapter 1 studies how parental fertility and bequest decisions affect children’s potential to become entrepreneurs when financial barriers exist. Motivated by evidence that high-income parents tend to have fewer children and leave larger bequests and allocate more resources per child, I develop an overlapping-generations model with endogenous fertility, bequests, and occupational choice, calibrated to U.S. data. The model shows that, when …

Essays Of Culture Economics: The Economic Consequences Of Cultural Change, Javier Gonzalez

Economics Theses and Dissertations

This dissertation contributes to the field of Cultural Economics by exploring the relationship between cultural transmission and economic outcomes. Across three distinct essays, this research investigates how mass media narratives shape economic preferences and labor decisions, and conversely, how economic fundamentals drive the evolution of cultural markers like language.   The first two chapters focus on the cultural and economic impact of television in Latin America, utilizing a novel dataset of telenovelas aired between 1960 and 2024. Chapter 1 extends the analysis of media influence to labor economics, studying the effect of televised female empowerment on female labor market outcomes. By …

Wildfires, Smoke Pollution, And Household Purchasing Behaviors, Tamara Sheldon, Crystal Zhan

Faculty Publications

In this paper, we investigate households’ behavioral responses to wildfires in California to understand their mitigation and adaptation strategies. We combine daily household-level consumer purchase data from the NielsenIQ Consumer Panel with detailed wildfire incident and smoke exposure data from various sources. Our analysis reveals that wildfires reduce retail trips and overall spending, both in-store and online, likely due to evacuations. However, wildfire-driven smoke increases purchases of essential goods, indicating adaptive behavior. More experienced households tend to respond more cautiously, and we observe heterogeneity in responses based on income, age, and pre-existing health conditions. These findings highlight the complexity and …

A Labor Market Unleashed: College Football Labor Substitution In The Transfer Portal Era, Adrian M. Simion, Jeremy M. Losak, Catalina Bush

Sport Management - All Scholarship

College football's labor market has been transformed by litigation-driven regulatory change eliminating long-standing mobility restrictions. Central to this transformation is a new roster construction dilemma — whether to acquire experienced collegiate talent through the transfer portal or invest in traditional high school recruiting. Using a fixed effects panel of 127 Football Bowl Subdivision programs across six recruiting cycles (2019–2024), we examine whether schools substitute transfers for high school recruits. Three findings emerge. First, portal activity is associated with reduced three-star recruiting but no relationship with four-star or five-star prospects, with substitution driven by quantity rather than quality. Second, substitution is …

Hitler Must Be Killed: A Wwii Case Study, Jeffrey Byford, Presley Shilling, Alisha Milam

The Councilor: A National Journal of the Social Studies

Social studies education during the 1960s experienced an educational renaissance known as the new social studies movement. Over 50 projects were funded by the National Science Foundation or private corporations to interject a student-centered curriculum into K-12 classrooms during this period. Nearly 60 years later, can student-centered decision-making activities be used in an era of high-stakes testing and planned curriculum? This article attempts to rekindle students' interest in decision-making and discussion by exploring elements in Moral Reasoning: The Value of Life from the Harvard Social Studies Project (HSSP). The activity called "Hitler Must Be Killed" helped students bring the content …

An Austrian Approach To Accounting Regulation: How Policy Intervention Distorts The Market For Assurance Services, Kyan Howe

Student Scholarship

This thesis applies the causal-realist method of the Austrian School of Economics to the market for assurance services in the United States. The central argument is that post-crisis accounting regulation has systematically distorted the incentive structures of independent public accounting firms in ways regulators do not predict and cannot fully control. Financial crises, properly understood through Austrian Business Cycle Theory, originate in monetary distortions rather than market failure. Post-crisis regulatory responses nonetheless target the profession rather than the underlying distortion, introducing rules that alter the institutional constraints within which auditors exercise professional judgment.

The thesis develops a judgment-based equation of …