Numerical Analysis Of Non-Constant Pure Rate Of Time Preference: A Model Of Climate Policy,
2010
Singapore Management University
Numerical Analysis Of Non-Constant Pure Rate Of Time Preference: A Model Of Climate Policy, Tomoki Fujii, Larry Karp
Research Collection School Of Economics
When current decisions affect welfare in the far-distant future, as with climate change, the use of a declining pure rate of time preference (PRTP) provides potentially important modeling flexibility. The difficulty of analyzing models with non-constant PRTP limits their application. We describe and provide software (available online) to implement an algorithm to numerically obtain a Markov perfect equilibrium for an optimal control problem with non-constant PRTP. We apply this software to a simplified version of the numerical climate change model used in the Stern Review. For our calibration, the policy recommendations are less sensitive to the PRTP than widely believed.
Managing Capital Flows: The Case Of Singapore,
2010
Singapore Management University
Managing Capital Flows: The Case Of Singapore, Hwee Kwan Chow
Research Collection School Of Economics
The resurgence of private capital inflows into Asia in recent years has raised the question of whether the region is susceptible to yet another financial crisis. While a sudden large-scale reversal of capital flows is not likely to result in a liquidity crunch or balance of payments crisis, the attendant sharp corrections in asset prices will have an adverse impact on the economy particularly through indirect channels. We present, in this study, Singapore’s experience in managing the risks posed by capital flows as well as the retention of control over exchange rates and monetary conditions. It is the overall package …
Enhancing Income Opportunities,
2010
Singapore Management University
Enhancing Income Opportunities, Rashiel Verlarde, Tomoki Fujii, Ulrich Lächler
Research Collection School Of Economics
Accelerating growth is essential for poverty reduction. As argued earlier, poverty has failed to decline significantly since the East Asian Crisis due to insufficiently dynamic growth, a high degree of income inequality that reduces the income elasticity of poverty reduction, and an apparent worsening of the income distribution. The first step toward addressing this failure is to accelerate growth, which will not be easy in the short run while the global slowdown continues to run its course. Moreover, even though the global crisis is gradually bottoming out, the post-crisis external environment is likely to be much less favorable than before, …
Contingent Valuation Studies And Health Policy,
2010
Duke Law School
Contingent Valuation Studies And Health Policy, Matthew D. Adler
Faculty Scholarship
No abstract provided.
Price And Pretense In The Baby Market,
2010
Duke Law School
Price And Pretense In The Baby Market, Kimberly D. Krawiec
Faculty Scholarship
Throughout the world, baby selling is formally prohibited. And throughout the world babies are bought and sold each day. As demonstrated in this Essay, the legal baby trade is a global market in which prospective parents pay, scores of intermediaries profit, and the demand for children is clearly differentiated by age, race, special needs, and other consumer preferences, with prices ranging from zero to over one hundred thousand dollars. Yet legal regimes and policymakers around the world pretend that the baby market does not exist, most notably through prohibitions against “baby selling” – typically defined as a prohibition against the …
Testing Linearity In Cointegrating Relations With An Application To Purchasing Power Parity,
2010
Korea University - Korea
Testing Linearity In Cointegrating Relations With An Application To Purchasing Power Parity, Seong Hyun Hong, Peter C. B. Phillips
Research Collection School Of Economics
This article shows that when applied to nonstationary time series, the conventional Regression Error Specification Test (RESET) leads to severe size distortion and its asymptotic distribution involves a mixture of noncentral chi(2) distributions. Nonstationarity introduces bias terms in the limit distribution, and appropriate corrections for the bias are presented leading to a modified RESET test that has a central chi(2) limit distribution. In simulations, this modified test is shown to have power not only against nonlinear cointegration but also against the absence of cointegration. In an empirical illustration, the linear purchasing power parity (PPP) specification is tested using five Organization …
Coastal Empire Economic Monitor, 1st Quarter, 2010,
2010
Georgia Southern University
Coastal Empire Economic Monitor, 1st Quarter, 2010, Armstrong Atlantic State University Center For Regional Analysis
Coastal Empire Economic Monitor
The Coastal Empire Economic Indicators are designed to provide continuously updating quarterly snapshots of the Savannah Metropolitan Statistical Area economy. The coincident index measures the current economic heartbeat of the region. The leading index provides a short term forecast of the region’s economic activity in six to nine months.
Coastal Empire Economic Monitor, 3rd Quarter, 2010,
2010
Georgia Southern University
Coastal Empire Economic Monitor, 3rd Quarter, 2010, Armstrong Atlantic State University Center For Regional Analysis
Coastal Empire Economic Monitor
The Coastal Empire Economic Indicators are designed to provide continuously updating quarterly snapshots of the Savannah Metropolitan Statistical Area economy. The coincident index measures the current economic heartbeat of the region. The leading index provides a short term forecast of the region’s economic activity in six to nine months.
Estimation Of High-Frequency Volatility: An Autoregressive Conditional Duration Models Approach,
2010
Singapore Management University
Estimation Of High-Frequency Volatility: An Autoregressive Conditional Duration Models Approach, Yiu Kuen Tse, Tao Yang
Research Collection School Of Economics
We propose a method to estimate the intraday volatility of a stock by integrating the instantaneous conditional return variance per unit time obtained from the autoregressive conditional duration (ACD) models. We compare the daily volatilities estimated using the ACD models against several versions of the realized volatility (RV) method, including the bipower variation realized volatility with subsampling, the realized kernel estimate and the duration-based realized volatility. The ACD volatility estimates correlate highly with and perform very well against the RV estimates. Our Monte Carlo results show that our method has lower root mean-squared error than the RV methods in most …
Simulated Maximum Likelihood Estimation Of Continuous Time Stochastic Volatility Models,
2010
University of Bergen
Simulated Maximum Likelihood Estimation Of Continuous Time Stochastic Volatility Models, Tore Selland Kleppe, Jun Yu, Hans J. Skaug
Research Collection School Of Economics
In this chapter we develop and implement a method for maximum simulated likelihood estimation of the continuous time stochastic volatility model with the constant elasticity of volatility. The approach does not require observations on option prices, nor volatility. To integrate out latent volatility from the joint density of return and volatility, a modified efficient importance sampling technique is used after the continuous time model is approximated using the Euler–Maruyama scheme. The Monte Carlo studies show that the method works well and the empirical applications illustrate usefulness of the method. Empirical results provide strong evidence against the Heston model.
Forecasting Realized Volatility Using A Nonnegative Semiparametric Time Series Model,
2010
Singapore Management University
Forecasting Realized Volatility Using A Nonnegative Semiparametric Time Series Model, A. Eriksson, D. Preve, Jun Yu
Research Collection School Of Economics
This paper introduces a parsimonious and yet flexible nonnegative semiparametric model to forecast financial volatility. The new model extends the linear nonnegative autoregressive model of Barndorff-Nielsen & Shephard (2001) and Nielsen & Shephard (2003) by way of a power transformation. It is semiparametric in the sense that the distributional form of its error component is left unspecified. The statistical properties of the model are discussed and a novel estimation method is proposed. Asymptotic properties are established for the new estimation method. Simulation studies validate the new estimation method. The out-of-sample performance of the proposed model is evaluated against a number …
Tournament Incentives, League Policy, And Nba Team Performance Revisited,
2010
Brigham Young University - Utah
Tournament Incentives, League Policy, And Nba Team Performance Revisited, Joseph Price, Brian P. Soebbing, David Berri, Brad R. Humphreys
Faculty Publications
Taylor and Trogdon found evidence of shirking under some, but not all, draft lottery systems used in three different National Basketball Association (NBA) seasons. The authors use data from all NBA games played from 1977 to 2007 and a fixed effects model to control for unobservable team and season heterogeneity to extend this research. The authors find that NBA teams were more likely to intentionally lose games at the end of the regular season during the seasons where the incentives to finish last were the largest.
Lawyers, Guns & Public Monies: The U.S. Treasury, World War One, And The Administration Of The Modern Fiscal State,
2010
Indiana University Maurer School of Law
Lawyers, Guns & Public Monies: The U.S. Treasury, World War One, And The Administration Of The Modern Fiscal State, Ajay K. Mehrotra
Articles by Maurer Faculty
The First World War was a pivotal event for American political and economic development, particularly in the realm of public finance. For it was during the war years that the federal government ended its traditional reliance on regressive import duties and excise taxes as principal sources of revenue and began a modern era of fiscal governance, one based primarily on the direct and progressive taxation of personal and corporate income. Like other aspects of war mobilization, this fiscal revolution required an enormous infusion of national administrative resources. Nowhere was this more evident than within the corridors of the U.S. Treasury …
