From Riches To Rags: The Political Economy Of The Natural Resource Curse,
2011
Claremont McKenna College
From Riches To Rags: The Political Economy Of The Natural Resource Curse, Anum Malkani
CMC Senior Theses
The natural resource curse paradox has given rise to a wide range of explanations, which look at the economic, social and political characteristics of resource-rich countries. This paper focuses on the political economy of natural resources and finds that controlling for sociopolitical factors eliminates the natural resource curse. The analysis then turns to these sociopolitical factors and examines the significant, complex and varied effects of democratization on economic growth in general, as well as in resource-rich countries in particular. I conclude that the type of institutions needed for economic development in resource-rich countries are not specific to either democratic or …
The Economic Impact Of Oil Price Shocks On Emerging Markets,
2011
Claremont McKenna College
The Economic Impact Of Oil Price Shocks On Emerging Markets, Aanchal Kapoor
CMC Senior Theses
Recent spikes in oil prices have thrown light on how economic activity in emerging markets may be impacted by oil price shocks. This paper conducts an empirical analysis of the effect of oil price shocks on emerging markets. It tests for the existence of an asymmetrical relationship between oil prices and economic activity using a model developed by James Hamilton. It also assesses the impact of structural shocks to the real price of oil on output as proposed by Lutz Kilian. While our models find no consistent pattern within emerging markets, they do suggest that oil price shocks have a …
The Impact Of Oil Prices On The U.S. Economy,
2011
Claremont McKenna College
The Impact Of Oil Prices On The U.S. Economy, Jacob H. Bauch
CMC Senior Theses
Nine of the ten recessions since WWII have been preceded by relatively large and sudden increases in the price of oil. In this paper, I use time series analysis to forecast GDP growth using oil prices. I use the methodology from Hamilton (2009), and extend the dataset through 2010. Impulse response functions are used to analyze the historical performance of the model’s one-year-ahead forecasts. In April, 2011, the International Monetary Fund changed its forecast of 2011 GDP growth in the U.S. from 3.0% to 2.8% largely due to persistently high oil prices. My model suggests that the price increase in …
Alleviating Social Disadvantages Of Rapid Economic Growth: A Case For Conditional Cash Transfer (Cct) Application In Old Siam,
2011
Claremont McKenna College
Alleviating Social Disadvantages Of Rapid Economic Growth: A Case For Conditional Cash Transfer (Cct) Application In Old Siam, Anastasia Kostioukova
CMC Senior Theses
The ongoing conflict between Thailand’s red shirt and yellow shirt parties is not purely political. This tension is rooted in a renewed awareness of regional economic and social inequality, a byproduct of rapid economic growth in the past. This thesis seeks to understand the overall consequences of unequal economic development in Thailand, as the rationale for asserting that a conditional cash transfer (CCT) program is an appropriate policy tool for the ongoing reconciliation efforts.
A Natural Resource Curse: Does It Exist Within The United States?,
2011
Claremont McKenna College
A Natural Resource Curse: Does It Exist Within The United States?, Bryce Gerard
CMC Senior Theses
In this paper, we examine data on U.S. GDP/Capita and natural resource share of GDP by state. We then run growth regressions and build on a previous model of dynamic equations to account for the spatial equilibrium that exists between U.S. states. Our results show that there exists evidence that overinvestment in oil and mining sectors has negative effects on state TFP growth, thus giving positive evidence for the existence of a natural resource curse between U.S. states.
A Theory Of Mental Credit,
2011
Claremont McKenna College
A Theory Of Mental Credit, Jason Soll
CMC Senior Theses
Many philosophical subjects attempt to analyze the basis of human welfare. Theories of desert, distribution of property, and happiness tend to dominate philosophical discourse. Mental credit, which is the mental acquisition of credit for one’s accomplishments and the satisfaction one derives from this credit, is absent from this discourse despite its underlying role in the way people think about their lives. Mental credit is an eternal cognitive good that deserves thoughtful attention and pious decisions for implementation. The following theory of mental credit seeks to serve as a unifying theory for the mental calculations that guide life’s most imperative decisions, …
Can The Monetary Integration Of Ecowas Improve Intra-Regional Trade?,
2011
Claremont McKenna College
Can The Monetary Integration Of Ecowas Improve Intra-Regional Trade?, Chinweuba E. Ezekwesili
CMC Senior Theses
A gravity model is used to evaluate the effects of currency union on intra-regional trade of ECOWAS (Economic Community of West African States) member states. The panel data used includes bilateral observations for fourteen years spanning 1994 through 2006 for 16 countries. Controlling for determinants and deterrents of trade, I find the presence of a currency union three times as likely to increase intra-regional trade between ECOWAS member countries. In addition, I find that the effect on trade creation has been steadily falling since 1994.
America's First Great Moderation,
2011
Claremont McKenna College
America's First Great Moderation, Ryan Shaffer
CMC Senior Theses
This paper identifies America's first Great Moderation, a period from 1841-1856 of unbroken economic expansion and low volatility comparable to the Great Moderation of the 1980s-2000s. This moderation occurred despite a lack of central banks, low governmental spending, and barriers to interstate commerce during the antebellum period. I demonstrate this moderation in industrial production and stock market indexes and compare the first Great Moderation with the second in these economic factors. These results also call into question the conventional wisdom of the National Bureau of Economic Research business cycle chronology that the antebellum period was volatile and fraught with recessions. …
Performance Of The Indian Banking Industry Over The Last Ten Years,
2011
Claremont McKenna College
Performance Of The Indian Banking Industry Over The Last Ten Years, Saumya Lohia
CMC Senior Theses
This paper analyzes the performance of Indian banks over the period of the last ten years. It uses the CAMEL Framework to determine the performance of public and private banks in India. The paper also conducts an empirical analysis to determine the share price performance of Indian banks relative to the share price performance of banks in Hong Kong, Europe and the US. This paper finds that private banks perform better than public banks overall based on the CAMEL Framework. In addition it also finds that the Indian banks share price performance is dependent on the share price performance of …
Credit Market Imperfections, Financial Crisis And The Transmission Of Monetary Policy,
2011
Claremont McKenna College
Credit Market Imperfections, Financial Crisis And The Transmission Of Monetary Policy, Brett Spencer
CMC Senior Theses
This paper uses U.S. macroeconomic data drawn from 2001 to 2010 in order to test for the operation of a credit channel of monetary transmission. Using a combination of a VAR and ADL time series frameworks, evidence is found for the impairment of the credit channel during the crisis period relative to the period which preceded it. Evidence is also found against the presence of a "credit crunch" during the crisis, and supporting evidence is found for the existence of a "credit trap." This analysis indicates a significant role for credit market imperfections in the transmission of monetary policy, and …
How Did The Extension Of The U.S. Dividend Tax Cuts In 2010 Affect Stock Prices?,
2011
Claremont McKenna College
How Did The Extension Of The U.S. Dividend Tax Cuts In 2010 Affect Stock Prices?, Gayle Lim
CMC Senior Theses
The efficacy of the 2001 and 2003 Bush tax cuts was a major topic of discussion in the 2010 midterm elections. I investigate the effect of the possible expiration and eventual extension of the dividend tax cut on US stock market performance in 2010 based on the methodology used by Amronin, Harrison and Sharpe (2008). I compare aggregate performance of US common stocks relative to foreign stocks using equity indices, and examine cross-sectional performance amongst US stocks by creating different stock portfolios based on their dividend yield. This comparison is done over two event windows, (1) 20-24 September 2010 and …
Has The Franco-German Power Balance In The European Union Tipped In Favor Of Germany?,
2011
Claremont McKenna College
Has The Franco-German Power Balance In The European Union Tipped In Favor Of Germany?, Stephanie C. Haffner
CMC Senior Theses
The power balance between France and Germany in the European Union has been one of great discussion and debate. Countless journalists and scholars have argued that Germany’s power has risen gradually against the seemingly perpetually stronger France over the past sixty years, and is now finally set to surpass France; but how true are these claims? How can power within the EU truly be measured? Through an analysis of Franco-German collaboration through unionization, a critique of the contemporary discourse on the relationship, and an examination of changing contributions to the EU budget, my paper argues that the Franco-German power balance …
An Analysis Of Remittance Tendencies Of Philippine Migrant Workers,
2011
Claremont McKenna College
An Analysis Of Remittance Tendencies Of Philippine Migrant Workers, Maryan S. Samson
CMC Senior Theses
In developing countries, remittances play a key role as a source of external finance. Remittances are a form of aid that migrant workers send back to their families, located in their home countries, in order to support the needs of the household. In about 25% of developing countries, remittances are larger than public and private capital flows combined (International Monetary Fund, 2009). In 2008, the Philippines economy was the 47th largest economy in the world with a GDP of $322 billion dollars (Asian Development Bank, Fact Sheet). Remittances accounted for over 10% of the Philippine economy, making the Philippines …
The Impact Of A Conditional Cash Transfer Program On Credit Behavior In Colombia,
2011
Claremont McKenna College
The Impact Of A Conditional Cash Transfer Program On Credit Behavior In Colombia, Brittany Pineros
CMC Senior Theses
This paper investigates the impact of Familias en Acción, a conditional cash transfer program in Colombia, on participant credit behavior. The motivation of the research is derived from previous studies which indicate that conditional cash transfer programs have effects on households aside from those directly intentioned by the programs. While the direct impacts of Familias en Acción have been measured by the research team responsible for evaluating the program, potential indirect effects remain uninvestigated. My research specifically focuses on the impacts of the program on credit behavior. I compute estimates on the percent change in loan balance outstanding and …
The Impact Of Weather Forecasts On Day-Ahead Power Prices,
2011
Claremont McKenna College
The Impact Of Weather Forecasts On Day-Ahead Power Prices, Noah Levin
CMC Senior Theses
1. Introduction Power industry deregulation and electricity market restructuring, which began in Chile in the 1980s and then spread to Norway, New Zealand and the UK, were introduced in the United States with the passage of the Energy Policy Act (EPA) of 1992 (Jameson, 1997). The EPA and subsequent Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) Orders led to the restructuring of vertically integrated electric utilities, the establishment of Independent System Operators (ISO) and Regional Transmission Organizations (RTO) and the development of competitive wholesale power markets. Deregulation also led to the creation of various electricity contract–based financial derivative products. In 1996, the …
Does The Provision Of Healthcare Vary With Race? Evidence From Health Shocks To Patients Far From Home,
2011
Claremont McKenna College
Does The Provision Of Healthcare Vary With Race? Evidence From Health Shocks To Patients Far From Home, Ajay Sridhar
CMC Senior Theses
A vast literature acknowledges that minority groups, particularly African-Americans, receive less, and lower-quality treatment than Caucasians in U.S. health facilities. It remains an open question as to how much of this disparity is a result of poverty, and how much, a result of more overt discrimination. Former empirical studies are far from conclusive given the endogeneity of hospital quality, as minorities are overrepresented in areas served by poor health facilities. To remedy this endogeneity issue, we observe visitors to the state of Florida, as well as travelers within Florida. When an individual experiences a health shock far from home, her …
Take Me Out Of The Ball Game: The Efficacy Of Public Subsidies In The Success Of Professional Sports Stadiums,
2011
Claremont McKenna College
Take Me Out Of The Ball Game: The Efficacy Of Public Subsidies In The Success Of Professional Sports Stadiums, Jonah Chodosh
CMC Senior Theses
This paper weights the relative advantages of multiple factors that lead to the success of professional sports stadiums in major markets, though a discussion of the arguments for and against public subsidies towards these projects. Using a logit statistical model, the paper determines that the two factors determining the highest likelihood of venue success include multiple tenants and access to mass transit. The analysis demonstrates that public subsidies towards stadiums don’t generate sufficient economic returns, and that successful stadiums can be created without using taxpayer funds.
The Effect Of Culture On Female Labor Force Partcipation,
2011
Claremont McKenna College
The Effect Of Culture On Female Labor Force Partcipation, Joycelyn J. Ho
CMC Senior Theses
This article looks at the effect of culture on female labor force participation. Proxies of culture used are Globe cultural social practice dimensions, and Hofstede cultural dimensions. This article finds that globe cultural dimensions have a stronger explantory value that Hofstede cultural dimensions. It confirms that gender eglaitarianism is a predictor of female labor force participation. It also suggests that assertiveness and uncertainty avoidance are also predictors of female labor force participation.
Strategic Significance: A Model Of G-20 Membership,
2011
Claremont McKenna College
Strategic Significance: A Model Of G-20 Membership, Patrick Eagan-Van Meter
CMC Senior Theses
The membership of the Group of 20 was selected without any official criteria. This paper investigates whether group membership can be explained through the consideration of several different factors that coincide with the mission of the organization. I found strong evidence that membership in the Group of 20 was based on some combination of land mass and economic output. The results demonstrate that these factors are highly predictive of group membership.
Democratic Strength And Terrorism: An Economic Approach,
2011
Claremont McKenna College
Democratic Strength And Terrorism: An Economic Approach, Brian P. Winter
CMC Senior Theses
There has been much literature about the economic effects of terrorism in democratic countries, but this literature often considers democracy to be a binary variable. This paper sought to explore how the effects might differ depending on the strength of a democracy. In the end, I found that the numbers of attacks and the effects of those attacks do not follow a linear path. The results for autocracies and anocracies require further analysis, but democracies have revealed interesting results. It seems that democracies as a whole have more terrorist attacks, but, within this group, the more democratic a country is …
