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Deliberation Enhances The Confirmation Bias In Politics, David L. Dickinson 2020 Chapman University

Deliberation Enhances The Confirmation Bias In Politics, David L. Dickinson

ESI Publications

The confirmation bias, unlike other decision biases, has been shown both empirically and in theory to be enhanced with deliberation. This suggests that limited attention, reduced deliberation, or limited available cognitive resources may moderate this bias. We aimed to test this hypothesis using a validated confirmation bias task in conjunction with a protocol that randomly assigned individuals to one week of at-home sleep restriction (SR) or well-rested (WR) sleep levels. We also used a measure of cognitive reflection as an additional proxy for deliberation in our analysis. We tested the hypotheses that the confirmation bias would be stronger for WR ...


Antitrust And Platform Monopoly, Herbert J. Hovenkamp 2020 University of Pennsylvania Carey Law School

Antitrust And Platform Monopoly, Herbert J. Hovenkamp

Faculty Scholarship at Penn Law

Are large digital platforms that deal directly with consumers “winner take all,” or natural monopoly, firms? That question is surprisingly complex and does not produce the same answer for every platform. The closer one looks at digital platforms the less they seem to be winner-take-all. As a result, competition can be made to work in most of them. Further, antitrust enforcement, with its accommodation of firm variety, is generally superior to any form of statutory regulation that generalizes over large numbers.

Assuming that an antitrust violation is found, what should be the remedy? Breaking up large firms subject to extensive ...


Writing Tips For Economics Research Papers, Plamen Nikolov 2020 Harvard Institute for Quantitative Social Science

Writing Tips For Economics Research Papers, Plamen Nikolov

Economics Faculty Scholarship

No abstract provided.


Keeping A Clean Reputation: More Evidence On The Perverse Effects Of Disclosure, Cary Deck, J. Dustin Tracy 2020 Chapman University

Keeping A Clean Reputation: More Evidence On The Perverse Effects Of Disclosure, Cary Deck, J. Dustin Tracy

ESI Working Papers

When a principal relies on the advice of an agent, a conflict of interest can encourage the agent to provide advice that is biased in a self-serving manner. Conventional wisdom suggests that such behavior can be minimized with disclosure requirements. However, disclosure has been shown to exacerbate self-serving bias and actually lead to greater harm for the principal in one-shot interactions. In many naturally occurring market settings, agents form reputations, a mechanism that diminishes the incentive to provide biased advice. In this paper, we test for bias in the advice agents provide when faced with reputation concerns and examine the ...


Speed Traps: Algorithmic Trader Performance Under Alternative Market Structures, Yan Peng, Jason Shachat, Lijia Wei, S. Sarah Zhang 2020 Wuhan University

Speed Traps: Algorithmic Trader Performance Under Alternative Market Structures, Yan Peng, Jason Shachat, Lijia Wei, S. Sarah Zhang

ESI Working Papers

Using laboratory experiments, we illustrate that trading algorithms that prioritize low latency pose certain pitfalls in a variety of market structures and configurations. In hybrid double auctions markets with human traders and trading agents, we find superior performance of trading agents to human traders in balanced markets with the same number of human and Zero Intelligence Plus (ZIP) buyers and sellers only, thus providing a partial replication of Das et al. (2001). However, in unbalanced markets and extreme market structures, such as monopolies and duopolies, fast ZIP agents fall into a speed trap and both human participants and slow ZIP ...


The Costs Of Critical Habitat Or Owl’S Well That Ends Well, Jonathan Klick, J.B. Ruhl 2020 University of Pennsylvania Carey Law School

The Costs Of Critical Habitat Or Owl’S Well That Ends Well, Jonathan Klick, J.B. Ruhl

Faculty Scholarship at Penn Law

When the Fish and Wildlife Service designated land in four counties of Arizona as “critical habitat” necessary for the protection of the endangered cactus ferruginous pygmy‐owl, property values dropped considerably. When the owl was later delisted, property values jumped back up. We use difference-in-difference and synthetic control designs to identify this effect with Zillow property value data. The results provide an estimate of the costs of this critical habitat designation, and they are considerable, contrary to the regulators’ position that critical habitat protection imposes no incremental costs beyond the original endangered species listing.


A Theory Of Cultural Revivals, Murat Iyigun, Jared Rubin, Avner Seror 2020 University of Colorado, Boulder

A Theory Of Cultural Revivals, Murat Iyigun, Jared Rubin, Avner Seror

ESI Working Papers

Why do some societies have political institutions that support productively inefficient outcomes? And why does the political power of elites vested in these outcomes often grow over time, even when they are unable to block more efficient modes of production? We propose an explanation centered on the interplay between political and cultural change. We build a model in which cultural values are transmitted inter-generationally. The cultural composition of society, in turn, determines public good provision as well as the future political power of elites from different cultural groups. We characterize the equilibrium of the model and provide sufficient conditions for ...


Data For "An Experimental Investigation Of Health Insurance Policy And Behavior", Josef Dustin Tracy, Hillard Kaplan, Kevin James, Stephen Rassenti 2020 Chapman University

Data For "An Experimental Investigation Of Health Insurance Policy And Behavior", Josef Dustin Tracy, Hillard Kaplan, Kevin James, Stephen Rassenti

Economic Science Institute Data Sets

We introduce a new experimental approach to measuring the effects of health insurance policy alternatives on behavior and health outcomes over the life course. Cash-motivated subjects are placed in a virtual environment where they earn income and allocate it across multi-period lives. We compare behavior across age, income and insurance plans---one priced according to an individual's expected cost and the other uniformly priced through employer-implemented cost sharing. We find that 1) subjects in the employer-implemented plan purchased insurance at higher rates; 2) the employer-based plan reduced differences due to income and age; 3) subjects in the actuarial plan engaged ...


Application Of Hydroprocessing, Fermentation, And Anaerobic Digestion In A Carbon-Negative Pyrolysis Refinery, Arna Ganguly, Irene M. Martin, Robert C. Brown, Mark M. Wright 2020 Iowa State University

Application Of Hydroprocessing, Fermentation, And Anaerobic Digestion In A Carbon-Negative Pyrolysis Refinery, Arna Ganguly, Irene M. Martin, Robert C. Brown, Mark M. Wright

Mechanical Engineering Publications

This study investigates the economic and environmental benefits of integrating hydroprocessing, fermentation, and anaerobic digestion into a pyrolysis refinery. Two scenarios were developed for upgrading and/or utilizing the primary products of pyrolysis (bio-oil, gas, and char). The first (hydroprocessing) scenario hydroprocesses whole bio-oil into gasoline and diesel. The second (fractionation) scenario fractionates bio-oil into sugars for fermentation to cellulosic ethanol and residual phenolic oil as the primary product. Both scenarios use the gaseous product of pyrolysis for process heat in the plant and employ biochar to enhance anaerobic digestion of manure for power generation. The fast pyrolysis plant processes ...


The Effect Of Sleep On Public Good Contributions And Punishment: Experimental Evidence, Jeremy Clark, David L. Dickinson 2020 University of Canterbury

The Effect Of Sleep On Public Good Contributions And Punishment: Experimental Evidence, Jeremy Clark, David L. Dickinson

ESI Publications

We investigate the effect of a full week of sleep restriction (SR) vs. well-restedness (WR) on contributions in a common public good experiment, the voluntary contributions mechanism (VCM). We examine the effect of sleep manipulation on decisions regarding both contributions and punishment of non-contributors. Actigraphy devices are used to confirm that our random assignment to sleep condition generates significant differences in objective nightly sleep duration and sleepiness. We find that when punishment is unavailable public good contributions do not differ by SR/WR assignment. When punishment is available, we find evidence that SR subjects contribute more than WR subjects, respond ...


Rapidly Declining Body Temperature In A Tropical Human Population, Michael Gurven, Thomas Kraft, Sarah Alami, Juan Copajira Adrian, Edhitt Cortez Linares, Daniel Cummings, Daniel Eid Rodriguez, Paul L. Hooper, Adrian Jaeggi, Raul Quispe Gutierrez, Ivan Maldonado Suarez, Edmond Seabright, Hillard Kaplan, Jonathan Stieglitz, Benjamin C. Trumble 2020 University of California, Santa Barbara

Rapidly Declining Body Temperature In A Tropical Human Population, Michael Gurven, Thomas Kraft, Sarah Alami, Juan Copajira Adrian, Edhitt Cortez Linares, Daniel Cummings, Daniel Eid Rodriguez, Paul L. Hooper, Adrian Jaeggi, Raul Quispe Gutierrez, Ivan Maldonado Suarez, Edmond Seabright, Hillard Kaplan, Jonathan Stieglitz, Benjamin C. Trumble

ESI Publications

Normal human body temperature (BT) has long been considered to be 37.0°C. Yet, BTs have declined over the past two centuries in the United States, coinciding with reductions in infection and increasing life expectancy. The generality of and reasons behind this phenomenon have not yet been well studied. Here, we show that Bolivian forager-farmers (n = 17,958 observations of 5481 adults age 15+ years) inhabiting a pathogen-rich environment exhibited higher BT when first examined in the early 21st century (~37.0°C). BT subsequently declined by ~0.05°C/year over 16 years of socioeconomic and epidemiological change ...


Seasonality In Fed Cattle Transactions And The Role Of Negotiated Cash, Elliott James Dennis 2020 University of Nebraska - Lincoln

Seasonality In Fed Cattle Transactions And The Role Of Negotiated Cash, Elliott James Dennis

Extension Farm and Ranch Management

First paragraph:

Alternative Marketing Arrangements (AMA) have once again taken center stage in the cattle market over the last several weeks. It is common knowledge that the use of AMAs varies by geographical region with Southern Plains feedlots using a larger share relative to Northern Plains feedlots. A long-standing issue is whether each geographical region is contributing a perceived appropriate amount of negotiated cash trade to aid in price discovery. This issue has intensified as the national level of negotiated cattle continues to decline. Lower cash prices and increased volatility due to COVID-19 government quarantine measures and the Holcomb Fire ...


Nonparametric Bounds On Treatment Effects With Imperfect Instruments, Kyunghoon Ban, Desire Kedagni 2020 Iowa State University

Nonparametric Bounds On Treatment Effects With Imperfect Instruments, Kyunghoon Ban, Desire Kedagni

Economics Working Papers

This paper extends the identification results in Nevo and Rosen
(2012) to nonparametric models. We derive nonparametric bounds on the average
treatment effect when an imperfect instrument is available. As in Nevo and
Rosen (2012), we assume that the correlation between the imperfect instrument
and the unobserved latent variables has the same sign as the correlation
between the endogenous variable and the latent variables. We show that the
monotone treatment selection and monotone instrumental variable restrictions,
introduced by Manski and Pepper (2000, 2009), jointly imply this assumption.
We introduce the concept of comonotone instrumental variable, which also
satisfies this assumption ...


A Model To Explain Statewide Differences In Covid-19 Death Rates, James L. Doti 2020 Chapman University

A Model To Explain Statewide Differences In Covid-19 Death Rates, James L. Doti

Economics Faculty Articles and Research

COVID-19 death rates per 100,000 vary widely across the nation. As of September 1, 2020, they range from a low of 4 in Hawaii to a high of 179 in New Jersey. Although academic research has been conducted at the county and metropolitan levels, no research has rigorously examined or identified the demographic and socioeconomic forces that explain state-level differences. This study presents an empirical model and the results of regression tests that help identify these forces and shed light on the role they play in explaining COVID-19 deaths.

A stepwise regression model we tested exhibits a high degree ...


Japan's Outright Purchases Of Commercial Paper (Japan Gfc), Alec Buchholtz 2020 Yale Program on Financial Stability

Japan's Outright Purchases Of Commercial Paper (Japan Gfc), Alec Buchholtz

The Journal of Financial Crises

Following the collapse of Lehman Brothers in September 2008, the global commercial paper (CP) market began to tighten as interest rates rose and investors sought more-liquid money market securities. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) introduced several operations in late 2008 to promote liquidity in the CP market. In January 2009, the BOJ began to purchase CP and asset-backed CP outright from banks and other financial institutions. The BOJ could purchase up to ¥3 trillion of CP with a residual maturity of up to three months, among other short-term securities, via 10 purchases of up to ¥300 billion each. The BOJ ...


The Role Of Dispersal And School Attendance On Reproductive Dynamics In Small, Dispersed Populations: Choyeros Of Baja California Sur, Mexico, Shane Macfarlan, Ryan Schacht, Eric Schniter, Juan José Garcia, Diego Guevara Beltran, Jory Lerback 2020 University of Utah

The Role Of Dispersal And School Attendance On Reproductive Dynamics In Small, Dispersed Populations: Choyeros Of Baja California Sur, Mexico, Shane Macfarlan, Ryan Schacht, Eric Schniter, Juan José Garcia, Diego Guevara Beltran, Jory Lerback

ESI Publications

Individuals from small populations face challenges to initiating reproduction because stochastic demographic processes create local mate scarcity. In response, flexible dispersal patterns that facilitate the movement of individuals across groups have been argued to reduce mate search costs and inbreeding depression. Furthermore, factors that aggregate dispersed peoples, such as rural schools, could lower mate search costs through expansion of mating markets. However, research suggests that dispersal and school attendance are costly to fertility, causing individuals to delay marriage and reproduction. Here, we investigate the role of dispersal and school attendance on marriage and reproductive outcomes using a sample of 54 ...


Public And Private (Dis)Incentives For Animal Identification, Elliott James Dennis 2020 University of Nebraska - Lincoln

Public And Private (Dis)Incentives For Animal Identification, Elliott James Dennis

Extension Farm and Ranch Management

First paragraph:

There has been a growing global trend towards automating data collection and using captured data to inform decision-making. This has spilled over into the beef complex where packers, feedlots, and cow-calf producers seek to leverage information on animal performance, health, and welfare. The technology to automate data collection, commonly advocated as a way to manage and identify cattle, diverges from the traditional means of identifying cattle through brands. This article reviews how common different animal identification practices are for feedlots and cow-calf producers in the United States and the public and private (dis)incentives for animal identification.


An Experimental Investigation Of Health Insurance Policy And Behavior, J. Dustin Tracy, Hillard Kaplan, Kevin A. James, Stephen Rassenti 2020 Chapman University

An Experimental Investigation Of Health Insurance Policy And Behavior, J. Dustin Tracy, Hillard Kaplan, Kevin A. James, Stephen Rassenti

ESI Working Papers

We introduce a new experimental approach to measuring the effects of health insurance policy alternatives on behavior and health outcomes over the life course. Cash-motivated subjects are placed in a virtual environment where they earn income and allocate it across multi-period lives. We compare behavior across age, income and insurance plans—one priced according to an individual’s expected cost and the other uniformly priced through employer-implemented cost sharing. We find that 1) subjects in the employer-implemented plan purchased insurance at higher rates; 2) the employer-based plan reduced differences due to income and age; 3) subjects in the actuarial plan ...


An Elementary Humanomics Approach To Boundedly Rational Quadratic Models, Michael J. Campbell, Vernon L. Smith 2020 Chapman University

An Elementary Humanomics Approach To Boundedly Rational Quadratic Models, Michael J. Campbell, Vernon L. Smith

ESI Working Papers

We take a refreshing new look at boundedly rational quadratic models in economics using some elementary modeling of the principles put forward in the book Humanomics by Vernon L. Smith and Bart J. Wilson. A simple model is introduced built on the fundamental Humanomics principles of gratitude/resentment felt and the corresponding action responses of reward /punishment in the form of higher/lower payoff transfers. There are two timescales: one for strictly self-interested action, as in economic equilibrium, and another governed by feelings of gratitude/resentment. One of three timescale scenarios is investigated: one where gratitude /resentment changes much more ...


Introduction To The Special Issue On The Economics Of Religion, Jared Rubin 2020 Chapman University

Introduction To The Special Issue On The Economics Of Religion, Jared Rubin

Economics Faculty Articles and Research

"The economics and political science of religion have blossomed into full-fledged fields in the last decade and a half. What was once a field on the far outskirts of economics and political science now regularly publishes in its top journals (see Figure 1).1 By 1998, the field was large enough for Iannaccone (1998) to write a survey of the shape of the field. The field was very much at its infancy at that time, and most of the best work was done by sociologists and/or published in sociology journals. This has changed significantly in the 22 years since ...


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