Other Economics Commons^™

Segmentation And Morphometry Of Intracranial Internal Carotid Artery Calcification In Relation To Brain Atrophy, Xiao Xu, Nikhil N. Chaudhari, Phoebe E. Imms, Nahian F. Chowdhury, Fangyun C. Liu, Jorge A. Solis Galvan, Bavrina Bigjahan, Grant Schleifer, Maria Ashna, Blake Hannagan, Giuseppe Barisano, Daniel K. Cummings, Daniel Eid Rodriguez, Paul L. Hooper, Edmond Seabright, Randall C. Thompson, Benjamin C. Trumble, Michael D. Gurven, Jonathan Stieglitz, Caleb E. Finch, M. Linda Sutherland, James D. Sutherland, Helena C. Chui, Margaret Gatz, Wendy J. Mack, Hillard Kaplan, Andrei Irimia

ESI Publications

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Purpose

Intracranial internal carotid artery calcification (iICAC) is a form of intracranial arteriosclerosis and is associated with an elevated risk of stroke and dementia. However, iICAC’s relationship with brain atrophy remains poorly understood. We aimed to automatically quantify iICAC morphometric characteristics and evaluate their associations with regional brain volumes (BVs).

Methods

We developed an automated approach to compute iICAC surface area and thickness from CT brain scans in a sample of physically active South American subsistence farmers (n = 1,232, age range: 40 years to 92 years, 48.1% female, 794 Tsimane and 438 Moseten). Linear regression models were used …

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On The Origins Of Modern East Asia: Knowledge And The Economic Transformation Of Japan And China In The Late 19th Century, Debin Ma, Jared Rubin, Weiwen Yin

ESI Working Papers

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This paper revisits the old thesis of the contrasting paths of modernization between Japan and China. It develops a new analytical framework regarding the role of knowledge acquisition (propositional vs. prescriptive) and political centralization as the key drivers behind these contrasting paths. Our model and historical data highlight how the introduction of these elements contributed to Meiji Japan’s decisive turn towards the West and Qing China’s lethargic response to Western imperialism. Our analytical framework, developed from a comparative historical narrative and quantitative data, sheds new light on the importance of knowledge acquisition in enabling developing countries to reach the world’s …

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Markets, Agency, And Trust: Ai Agents And The Knowledge Problem, Brennan Mcdavid, Lynne Kiesling, David Chassin

Philosophy Faculty Articles and Research

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Artificial intelligence (AI) is transforming market participation, raising key epistemological questions: Do AI agents enhance or diminish the aggregation of local, private, and tacit knowledge Hayek saw as essential to market processes? How does trust in both markets and AI shape willingness to engage in AI-mediated exchange? This paper examines these issues through market epistemology, agency relationships, and trust epistemology, analyzing how agentic AI reshapes the knowledge problem and principal-agent dynamics. Applying this framework to transactive energy markets, we show that AI shifts decision-making from human cognition to algorithmic processes that require user trust despite epistemic opacity, although it is …

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The Poverty Of Algebra, Anwar Shaikh Phd

Archives of Anwar Shaikh

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This collection includes.

• Anwar Shaikh. (n.d.). The poverty of algebra: Critical notes on neo-Ricardian economics (Unpublished manuscript). Department of Economics, The New School for Social Research, New York, NY.

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Stated Preferences For Public Provision Of Services: Experimental Evidence From Latin America, Hernán Bejarano, Matias Busso, Juan Francisco Santos

ESI Working Papers

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We study how individuals in six Latin American countries value public versus private provision of education and healthcare using a survey experiment. Respondents were randomly assigned to vignettes that vary income, service quality, and provider type. Reported service quality is the main driver of choices: the probability of selecting a private provider roughly doubles when reported quality of the public option falls from 80 to 20 percent, while income has a smaller effect. Higher institutional trust lowers the likelihood of switching to private providers but does not affect willingness to pay once individuals choose private provision.

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Existence Of Equilibrium Mechanisms In Generalized Principal-Agent Problems With Interacting Teams, Brian Roberson

ESI Working Papers

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We study incentive design when multiple principals simultaneously design mechanisms for their respective teams in environments with strategic spillovers. In this environment, each principal’s set of incentive-compatible mechanisms—those that satisfy their own agents’ incentive compatibility constraints— depends on the mechanisms offered by the other teams. Following a classic example by Myerson (1982), such games may lack equilibrium due to discontinuities in the correspondence of incentive-compatible mechanisms. We establish general conditions for equilibrium existence by introducing a novel approach that involves tracking both the outcome distributions along the truthful-obedient path and the sets of outcome distributions achievable through unilateral deviations, thereby …

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Authoritarianism And Conspiracism Around The World, Valerie Capraro, Folca Panizza, Joseph A. Vitriol, Mikey Biddlestone, Andrè Krouwel, Yordan Kutiyski, Alberto López Ortega, Ana Ebert, Max Wan, Praveen Kujal, Karen M. Douglas, Christopher M. Federico, Jolanda Jetten, Sander Van Der Linden, Flávio Azevedo

ESI Working Papers

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Authoritarian leaders frequently deploy conspiracy narratives to justify power concentration and delegitimize opponents, yet the link between authoritarianism and conspiracism remains underresearched. Integrating data across six studies from multiple international surveys (N=63,403; 20 countries), expert-coded party systems (71 countries; 14 datasets), and longitudinal panel studies, we demonstrate that individuals with stronger authoritarian orientations are consistently more prone to conspiracism across diverse cultures, political contexts, and time. These results remain robust when controlling for populist attitudes and multiple political, psychological, and demographic variables. The link between authoritarianism and conspiracism appears to constitute a durable and generalizable psychological relationship. This may help …

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Kerentanan Kemiskinan Di Sulawesi Selatan: Analisis Vulnerability As Expected Poverty Dan Klaster Spasial, Nur Hilda Triany

Jurnal Ekonomi Kependudukan dan Keluarga

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This study aims to analyze the determinants of poverty vulnerability in South Sulawesi by integrating spatial dimensions into risk estimation models. Using micro-data from the March 2024 National Socio-Economic Survey (Susenas) with individuals as the unit of analysis, this study applies the Vulnerability as Expected Poverty (VEP) and Local Indicator of Spatial Association (LISA) methods, estimated through an integrated logistic regression model. Empirical results indicate that while the average vulnerability is relatively low, risk distribution is highly concentrated in specific regional clusters. Key findings reveal that health insurance ownership and household assets are the dominant protective factors that drastically reduce …

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High Prevalence Of Cerebrovascular Calcifications And Clinical Correlates In Indigenous Bolivian Forager‐Horticulturalists: A Population‐Based Observational Study, Giuseppe Barisano, Bavrina Bigjahan, Grant Schleifer, Maria Ashna, Wendy J. Mack, M. Linda Sutherland, James D. Sutherland, Helena C. Chui, Meng Law, Thomas J. Fischbach, Andrei Irimia, Nikhil N. Chaudhari, Daniel K. Cummings, Paul L. Hooper, Jacob E. Aronoff, Ellen E. Walters, Daniel Eid Rodriguez, Raul Quispe Gutierrez, Jesus Bani Cuata, Kenneth Buetow, Caleb E. Finch, Michael D. Gurven, Jonathan Stieglitz, Gregory S. Thomas, Randall C. Thompson, Benjamin Trumble, Hillard Kaplan, Margaret Gatz

ESI Publications

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Background

Intracranial arteriosclerosis (large‐ and small‐vessel disease) is considered a risk factor for major neurological disorders, such as stroke, cognitive impairment, and dementia. While most studies investigating intracranial arteriosclerosis include individuals from industrialized populations, the prevalence and clinical meaning of intracranial vascular calcifications in populations with a subsistence lifestyle is unknown.

Methods

In this population‐based study evaluating data collected between 2017 and 2019 from Tsimane and Moseten people, 2 indigenous populations of forager‐horticulturalists living in the Bolivian Amazon, we used computed tomography to determine the prevalence of vascular calcifications in the intracranial internal carotid arteries, vertebral arteries, and lenticulostriate arteries …

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For Whom Do Labels Work? Heterogeneous Effects Of Popularity And Environmental Information In Coffee Choice, Dede Long, Joaquín Gómez-Miñambres, Hongxing Liu

ESI Publications

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We examine the impact of two common food labels on consumers’ choices: environmental certification and popularity cues. In a randomized experiment, participants chose between two similar coffee products, with treatments varying the presence of environmental and/or popularity information. We also collected measures of conformity preferences, environmental concern, political identity, and demographics. At the aggregate level, the environmental and combined labels significantly increased the selection of the target coffee, whereas popularity information alone had no effect. These averages conceal substantial heterogeneity: high-conformity participants responded to all labels, especially popularity cues, while those with domain-specific environmental concerns responded only to environmental and …

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Higher Growth Rate In The California Manufacturing Sector In The First Quarter Of 2026, Anderson Center For Economic Research

Anderson Center Press Releases

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No abstract provided.

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Trading Volume And Forecast Accuracy In Kalshi Prediction Markets, Nicholas Smole

CMC Senior Theses

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This thesis examines the accuracy of Kalshi prediction markets and how different measures of trading volume shape their calibration and predictive power. Expanding upon previous models, use nonparametric calibration curves, pseudo-likelihood regressions, and Brier-score regressions on a large panel of Kalshi contracts to compare the effects of ex-post total volume and cumulative trading volume on market accuracy. Markets are typically well-calibrated near expiration; however, at longer horizons, low-volume markets exhibit substantially more miscalibration. Holding time to expiration fixed, greater cumulative volume is associated with higher accuracy. In comparison, higher ex-post total volume is associated with lower accuracy, highlighting the importance …

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The Economics Of The U.S. Student Loan Market And The Case For The Education Development Financial Institution, Ian Akers

CMC Senior Theses

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The United States student loan market is shaped by a variety of market failures–credit constraints, positive externalities, behavioral frictions including myopia, debt aversion, and misperception–that together justify government intervention in the market. Yet the design of federal intervention is just as important as its existence. This thesis details the economic theory underpinning the market for student loans, evaluates three historical federal student loan programs (the Perkins Loan Program, the Federal Family Education Loan Program, and the Federal Direct Loan Program) through the lens of that theory. The thesis then proposes a novel institutional model as a targeted response to the …

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Volatility Modeling With An Application To Risk Parity Portfolios, Kenneth Hou

CMC Senior Theses

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This thesis studies volatility modeling in the context of risk parity portfolio construction. I compare three risk parity portfolios that differ only in their underlying volatility model: a historical covariance baseline, a Bayesian stochastic volatility model, and a GRU–GARCH hybrid neural network. Using daily returns on Kenneth French’s five industry portfolios from January 2016 through December 2025, I construct monthly rebalanced portfolios under each model, with the SV and GRU forecasts embedded in hybrid covariance matrices that combine forecasted volatilities with rolling historical correlations. The results document a divergence between forecast accuracy and portfolio performance: the SV model is the …

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An Analysis Of How Adverse Weather Conditions Impact Concessions Revenue At Live College Sporting Events, Luke V. Eiermann

Honors Undergraduate Theses

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Previous literature finds that weather affects consumer behavior, though these findings are conflicting among sports fans. While there have been some studies into weather’s effects on attendance, there has not yet been research into its effects on concessions revenue. This is a topic of interest as adverse weather is increasingly prevalent in consumers’ lives, and learning more about their behavior in response to adverse weather is becoming more important. I performed a fixed effects panel data regression, using weather data sourced from the NOAA and sports and population data sourced from various locations. I did not find significant results for …

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Education And The Maternal Childcare Gap: Evidence From The Uk Covid-19 Pandemic, Lara Bakhaya

Honors Theses

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This paper examines whether college education shapes working mothers’ access to remote work, flexible working, and childcare hours in the United Kingdom, and whether COVID-19 school closures amplified these inequalities. Using data from the UK Time Use Survey (2016–2021), a repeated cross-sectional diary dataset spanning the pre-pandemic period and five COVID-19 waves, this paper estimates weighted logistic and ordinary least squares regressions on a sample of married or cohabiting, employed mothers. School closures serve as a natural experiment, providing an exogenous shock to caregiving demands that affected all mothers simultaneously regardless of education level. College education significantly predicted working from …

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Spillover Effects Of Medicare Advantage On Fee-For-Service Post-Acute Care Spending, Nyel Bangash

Honors Theses

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Does the growth of Medicare Advantage reduce fee-for-service post-acute care spending through practice-pattern spillovers, or do observed spending differences primarily reflect favorable selection? Using a county-level panel of roughly 2,700 counties (2014–2023) and a two-way fixed effects specification, I find that a one percentage-point increase in MA penetration is associated with $9.54 less per-capita standardized FFS spending. Spending per episode falls while participation rates remain stable, consistent with practice-pattern spillovers rather than compositional changes from selection. Welfare indicators from County Health Rankings, CDC PLACES, and CMS Care Compare show no evidence that spending reductions harm health or care quality. The …

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Performance Of Digital Economic Indicators During The Covid-19 Pandemic: Payment System Case Of Indonesia, Darjana Darjana, Yanti Rusmawati

Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking

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We explore the performance of digital payment system instruments during both the pre-COVID-19 period and during the pandemic. We focus on four main digital economic indicators in Indonesia; namely, electronic money, Automated Teller Machine (ATM), digital banking, and Real Time Gross Settlement (RTGS) transactions. Using monthly data covering the period 2013:01 to 2023:04 obtained from Bank Indonesia, we employ the Difference-in-Differences method to assess the impact of the pandemic on digital economic indicators. The results show that during the pandemic, generally, the transaction value of electronic money, digital banking and RTGS are continuously upward trending, while the number of electronic …

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Oxytocin Varies Across The Life Course In A Sex-Specific Way In A Human Subsistence Population, Abigail E. Colby, Dominik C. Jud, Valerie Baettig, Jordan S. Martin, Camila Scaff, Michael D. Gurven, Benjamin C. Trumble, Bret A. Beheim, Paul L. Hooper, Daniel K. Cummings, Hillard Kaplan, Jonathan Stieglitz, Arnulfo Cary Ista, Adrian V. Jaeggi

ESI Publications

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Oxytocin, a hormone linked to reproduction and health, may mediate life-history trade-offs across the human life course. Yet, how oxytocin naturally varies with age remains poorly understood. Here, working with the Tsimane, forager-horticulturalists of lowland Bolivia, we collected the largest sample of oxytocin measurements to date (n = 1,242 samples, n = 405 individuals, age = 2 to 84 y, 51% female), and i) examined how oxytocin varies throughout the life course in females and males, and ii) investigated potential drivers of age- and sex-specific variation. Our sample provides rare insight into the relationship between oxytocin and age in a …

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Explaining Pension Trends And Recent Pension Performance, Nathan Jeppson, John A. Ruddy, David F. Salerno

Pennsylvania Economic Review

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Due to significant unfunded liabilities, many employer-sponsored retirement plans both domestically and internationally are shifting away from defined benefit (DB) pension plans to defined contribution (DC) plans. This is especially the case in private industry. Many expected that the COVID-19 pandemic would cause the funding status of DB plans to worsen. However, the opposite occurred. This is primarily due to decreased life expectancies and improved financial market performance. We utilize a 2004-2021 dataset that contains state level GDP, revenue, pension, and life expectancy data to study U.S. state DB pension plans. We are able to explain over 80% of the …

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