Macroeconomics Commons^™

Monetary And Fiscal Policies: Ordinary Recessions And Financial Crises, Svetoslav I. Semov

Gettysburg Economic Review

This paper uses two different samples to study the effects of monetary and fiscal policies on the profiles of recessions and recoveries. Several results emerge from the econometric analysis presented. First, monetary policy during ordinary recessions and banking crises is a powerful tool with lasting effects that extend to recovery growth rates. However, the effect of monetary policy during financial crises is strongly diminished in the case of forbearance – banks left to function despite being technically insolvent. Second, the effectiveness of fiscal policy is reversed – it is a powerful tool during banking crises, but it does not seem …

Macroeconomics After The Great Recession: Consensus Or Conflict?, Hailiang Xu

Electronic Theses and Dissertations

Unlike microeconomics where there are relatively few disagreements, the field of macroeconomics has always been the arena of several competing theories. Despite that history of conflict, in the late 1980s during the Great Moderation, the New Classicals and the New Keynesians reached an agreement, known as the New Consensus during the Great Moderation. For decades, the New Consensus has dominated macroeconomic theory and policymaking not only in the U.S., but also throughout the world. After many years of calm, however, the 2007-2008 subprime mortgage crisis and its consequent Great Recession demonstrated that how fragile that consensus was.

While the debate …

America's First Great Moderation, Ryan Shaffer

CMC Senior Theses

This paper identifies America's first Great Moderation, a period from 1841-1856 of unbroken economic expansion and low volatility comparable to the Great Moderation of the 1980s-2000s. This moderation occurred despite a lack of central banks, low governmental spending, and barriers to interstate commerce during the antebellum period. I demonstrate this moderation in industrial production and stock market indexes and compare the first Great Moderation with the second in these economic factors. These results also call into question the conventional wisdom of the National Bureau of Economic Research business cycle chronology that the antebellum period was volatile and fraught with recessions. …

Fiscal Impact Of Privatization In Developing Countries, Alexander H. Sunderland

CMC Senior Theses

This paper examines the fiscal impact of privatization revenues in 47 developing countries. There are many reasons that privatization is attractive for the central government of developing countries. If substantial, these revenues from the sale of state owned enterprises can present a potential solution to persistent deficits. On the other hand, the privatization revenues could be used to finance an even larger deficit. In this paper, I will discuss previous research on the fiscal impact of privatization revenues, the factors that contribute to persistent fiscal budget deficits and explain how empirical research on the fiscal impact of privatization in the …

The Impact Of Terrorism On Foreign Direct Investment: Which Sectors Are More Vulnerable?, Shivani Agrawal

CMC Senior Theses

The impact of conflict and violence on foreign direct investment (FDI) is not a topic that has been done justice by the literature, and what few studies exist have contradictory results. This paper studies the impact that transnational terrorism has on FDI inflows by economic sector, in developed countries. Results indicate a statistically significant negative correlation between terrorist events and total FDI inflows. Amongst a list of 12 broad industrial sectors, FDI inflows for manufacturing, trade and repair, and construction were found to have a statistically significant negative correlation with terrorist events.

The Economic Impact Of Oil Price Shocks On Emerging Markets, Aanchal Kapoor

CMC Senior Theses

Recent spikes in oil prices have thrown light on how economic activity in emerging markets may be impacted by oil price shocks. This paper conducts an empirical analysis of the effect of oil price shocks on emerging markets. It tests for the existence of an asymmetrical relationship between oil prices and economic activity using a model developed by James Hamilton. It also assesses the impact of structural shocks to the real price of oil on output as proposed by Lutz Kilian. While our models find no consistent pattern within emerging markets, they do suggest that oil price shocks have a …

Credit Market Imperfections, Financial Crisis And The Transmission Of Monetary Policy, Brett Spencer

CMC Senior Theses

This paper uses U.S. macroeconomic data drawn from 2001 to 2010 in order to test for the operation of a credit channel of monetary transmission. Using a combination of a VAR and ADL time series frameworks, evidence is found for the impairment of the credit channel during the crisis period relative to the period which preceded it. Evidence is also found against the presence of a "credit crunch" during the crisis, and supporting evidence is found for the existence of a "credit trap." This analysis indicates a significant role for credit market imperfections in the transmission of monetary policy, and …

Competition Red, Anwar Shaikh Phd

Archives of Anwar Shaikh

This collection includes:

• Classical definition of costs by Anwar Shaikh, PhD
• Notes on fixed capital and joint production by Anwar Shaikh, PhD
• Models of adjustment of mkt prices to POP by Anwar Shaikh, PhD
• Price, marginal cost and the business cycle by Jonathan Haskel, Christopher Martin, and Ian Small
• Four themes present in the discussion of PE by Anwar Shaikh, PhD
• Competition of capital mobility by Anwar Shaikh, PhD
• Profit rates within industry by Anwar Shaikh, PhD
• The structure of Kalecki's theory by Anwar Shaikh, PhD
• Average and incremental profit rates: US and OECD by Anwar Shaikh, PhD
• Correspondence to …

Microfoundations Revisions, Anwar Shaikh Phd

Archives of Anwar Shaikh

This collection includes:

• Shaikh, A. March 11, 2011. Chapter 3: microfoundations revisions (Handwritten folder notes). Unpublished work. New York, NY: New School for Social Research.
• Shaikh, A. December 2, 2009. What's left of microeconomics? Microfoundations and emergent macro properties (Unpublished manuscript draft). Unpublished work. New York, NY: New School for Social Research.
• Shaikh, A. July 4, 2012. Micro talk NSSR (Handwritten lecture notes). Unpublished work. New York, NY: New School for Social Research.
• Shaikh, A. December 2, 2009. Rethinking microeconomics: a proposed reconstruction (Unpublished manuscript draft). Unpublished work. New York, NY: New School for Social Research.
• Shaikh, A. December 2, …

Loose Magazines, Notes, Dissertation, Anwar Shaikh Phd

Archives of Anwar Shaikh

This collection includes:

• Shaikh, A. (n.d.). Turbulent dynamics in advanced societies (Unpublished manuscript table of contents) (22-16_Loos... p. 2).
• Shaikh, A. (n.d.). Turbulent dynamics and pattern recurrence: Economic analysis in a global context (Unpublished manuscript table of contents) (22-16_Loos... p. 3).
• Shaikh, A. (2011). Turbulent dynamics and hidden patterns: Economic analysis in a global context (Unpublished manuscript table of contents) (22-16_Loos... p. 4).
• Shaikh, A. (n.d.). Mathematical equation on cumulative output fractions (Unpublished manuscript note) (22-16_Loos... p. 6).
• Shaikh, A. (2011). Current summary table of contents (Unpublished manuscript table of contents) (22-16_Loos... p. 7).
• Shaikh, A. (2010). The economic analysis …

Can The Monetary Integration Of Ecowas Improve Intra-Regional Trade?, Chinweuba E. Ezekwesili

CMC Senior Theses

A gravity model is used to evaluate the effects of currency union on intra-regional trade of ECOWAS (Economic Community of West African States) member states. The panel data used includes bilateral observations for fourteen years spanning 1994 through 2006 for 16 countries. Controlling for determinants and deterrents of trade, I find the presence of a currency union three times as likely to increase intra-regional trade between ECOWAS member countries. In addition, I find that the effect on trade creation has been steadily falling since 1994.

Signal Extraction From The Components Of The Philippine National Accounts Statistics Using Arima Model-Based Methodology, Cesar C. Rufino

Angelo King Institute for Economic and Business Studies (AKI)

The state-of-the-art in signal extraction gradually evolved from the use of mechanical form of moving average filters to the present sophisticated model-based techniques capable of performing automatic modeling and signal extraction involving hundreds or even thousands of time series in one production run. The leading edge of technology is being shared by two ARIMA model-based systems – ARIMA X12 of the US Bureau of Census and the twin programs TRAMO-SEATS developed at the Bank of Spain. These specialized expert systems have been adopted by most statistical agencies of advanced OECD countries and the European community. The Philippines on the other …

The Great Indian Growth Puzzle: What Caused A Spike In 2003?, Aditya Bindal

CMC Senior Theses

This paper will employ unit root tests for finding structural breaks endogenously among India’s key macroeconomic aggregate series, as well as their components and subcomponents. The same analysis will be repeated, wherever data are available, for states. The results from these unit root tests will then be used in regression models for national and state level data to understand the causes behind structural breaks. We find that breakpoints cluster around 1982 and 2003 for most series at the national and state level. The services component appears to be a promising candidate for explaining the 2003 structural break in some of …

The Impact Of Oil Prices On The U.S. Economy, Jacob H. Bauch

CMC Senior Theses

Nine of the ten recessions since WWII have been preceded by relatively large and sudden increases in the price of oil. In this paper, I use time series analysis to forecast GDP growth using oil prices. I use the methodology from Hamilton (2009), and extend the dataset through 2010. Impulse response functions are used to analyze the historical performance of the model’s one-year-ahead forecasts. In April, 2011, the International Monetary Fund changed its forecast of 2011 GDP growth in the U.S. from 3.0% to 2.8% largely due to persistently high oil prices. My model suggests that the price increase in …

Currant Theory, Anwar Shaikh Phd

Archives of Anwar Shaikh

This collection includes:

• Shaikh, A. (2011). Current theory (Handwritten note by Anwar Shaikh, PhD). New School University Archives.
• Foley, D. (2010, November 27). Re: circuiste theory (Email). New School University Archives.
• Cardim de Carvalho, F. J. (2003). Circuit theory. In J. E. King (Ed.), The Elgar companion to post Keynesian economics (pp. 60–61). Edward Elgar Publishing.
• Realfonzo, R. (2003). Circuit theory. In J. E. King (Ed.), The Elgar companion to post Keynesian economics (pp. 61–64). Edward Elgar Publishing.
• Shaikh, A. (2011, January 19). Circuitist models comments.doc (Manuscript with handwritten notes). New School University Archives.
• Shaikh, A. (2004, March 12). Comments …

Godley Conference Paper, Anwar Shaikh Phd

Archives of Anwar Shaikh

This collection includes:

• Godley conference paper (file folder). Anwar Shaikh, PhD, manuscript in progress, 2011.
• Economic policy in a growth context. Anwar Shaikh, Macroeconomics and Growth, 2008, Palgrave Macmillan.
• Notes on New Cambridge and Ruggles (unpublished manuscript). Anwar Shaikh, PhD, May 01, 2011.
• Effect of depletion rates on KGC and KNC estimates (data analysis commentary). Anwar Shaikh, PhD, February 22, 2011.
• I have spent many a happy hour here at the Levy (handwritten notes). Anwar Shaikh, PhD, 2011.
• On Godley & KK (handwritten notes). Anwar Shaikh, PhD, 2011.
• The role of the savings rate in Godley's macroeconomics (manuscript outline). …

Alleviating Social Disadvantages Of Rapid Economic Growth: A Case For Conditional Cash Transfer (Cct) Application In Old Siam, Anastasia Kostioukova

CMC Senior Theses

The ongoing conflict between Thailand’s red shirt and yellow shirt parties is not purely political. This tension is rooted in a renewed awareness of regional economic and social inequality, a byproduct of rapid economic growth in the past. This thesis seeks to understand the overall consequences of unequal economic development in Thailand, as the rationale for asserting that a conditional cash transfer (CCT) program is an appropriate policy tool for the ongoing reconciliation efforts.

Real-Time Forecasting, Dean D. Croushore

Economics Faculty Publications

This chapter will discuss real-time forecasting in a macroeconomic policy context. I will begin by talking about the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF), a survey of private-sector forecasters. Next, I will discuss research on real-time data analysis and its importance in forecasting. Finally, I will discuss real-time forecasting in the 1990s.

Cps, Anwar Shaikh Phd

Archives of Anwar Shaikh

This collection includes:

• Wage Equivalents (WEQ) and Sectoral Account Inquiries, by A. Shaikh (2010, August 24). Personal communication.
• Income and Outlays of Households and of Nonprofit Institutions Serving Households, by C. I. Mead, C. P. McCully, and M. B. Reinsdorf (2003, April). Survey of Current Business, 83(4), 13–17. Bureau of Economic Analysis.
• Housing Services in the National Economic Accounts, by N. Mayerhauser and M. Reinsdorf (2007, September 11). Bureau of Economic Analysis.
• Measurement of Gross Operating Surplus (GOS), by A. Shaikh (2009). Unpublished manuscript.
• Gross Operating Surplus, Imputed Interest, and Measures of Profitability, by …

Estimating Kg, Anwar Shaikh Phd

Archives of Anwar Shaikh

This collection includes:

• Route 91,841 Estimating KG, by A. Shaikh (2000, November 12). Unpublished manuscript.
• Figure 4: Nominal Depletion Rates (Based on BEA 1993 Data), by A. Shaikh (2006, October 10). Unpublished manuscript.
• Effect of Initial Points on KGC Estimates (BEA 1993 vs. Gorman SCB 1985), by A. Shaikh (2011, March 9). Unpublished manuscript.
• Chapter 7: Measurement of Profit, Capital and the Rate of Profit, by A. Shaikh (2011, March 9). Unpublished manuscript.
• Effect Sudden Retirement KGH and KHN, by A. Shaikh (2010, July 25). Unpublished manuscript.
• Effect of Initial Values on Corp Nonfin KG …