Macroeconomics Commons^™

Lessons Learned: Lewis "Lee" Sachs, Yasemin Esmen

Journal of Financial Crises

Lewis “Lee” Sachs was counselor to Treasury Secretary Timothy F. Geithner and head of the Obama administration’s Financial Crisis Response Team in the US Department of the Treasury. Mr. Sachs led the development and coordination of the Obama administration’s Financial Stability Plan to stabilize the financial system during the Global Financial Crisis of 2007–09 (GFC). He was tasked with continued coordination with the outgoing Bush administration, as well as putting together a team to develop further restructuring plans and oversee their execution. This “Lessons Learned” is based on an interview with Mr. Sachs.

Lessons Learned: William Nelson, Sandra Ward

Journal of Financial Crises

William Nelson was deputy director, Division of Monetary Affairs, at the Federal Reserve Board during the Global Financial Crisis of 2007–09 (GFC). As the nation’s central bank, chief financial regulator, and lender of last resort, the Federal Reserve Board took the lead in setting monetary policy and stabilizing the financial system during the crisis.

Nelson’s responsibilities at the Fed during the crisis included analysis of monetary policy and discount window policy as well as financial institution supervision, and he regularly briefed the board and the Federal Open Market Committee. He developed special expertise in designing liquidity facilities and was a …

Lessons Learned: Timothy Massad, Yasemin Esmen

Journal of Financial Crises

Timothy Massad was assistant secretary for financial stability at the US Department of the Treasury between 2009 and 2014. He oversaw the $700 billion Troubled Assets Relief Program (TARP), which was passed by Congress in October 2008 to enable the Treasury to buy assets of and invest in banks and companies to stem the financial crisis. Massad was involved in the implementation of TARP as well as its winding down; it ultimately invested $439 billion. This “Lessons Learned” is based on a phone interview with Mr. Massad.

Lessons Learned: Andreas Lehnert, Mercedes Cardona

Journal of Financial Crises

Andreas Lehnert was chief of the Federal Reserve’s Household and Real Estate Finance Section at the onset of the Global Financial Crisis of 2007–09 (GFC) and played a key role in implementing the Fed’s research and policy agenda on financial stability. He developed and helped run the Fed’s first regulatory bank stress tests in 2009, and in 2010 played a role in launching the Office of Financial Stability Policy and Research, which became the Division of Financial Stability. This “Lessons Learned” is based on an interview with Mr. Lehnert.

The Effect Of A Financial Crisis On Household Finances: A Case Study Of Iceland’S Financial Crisis, Axel Hall, Andri S. Scheving, Gylfi Zoega

Journal of Financial Crises

Iceland experienced a financial crisis in 2008–2009 when its banking system collapsed, the currency lost half its value, most businesses became technically insolvent, house prices fell, and household debt increased due to indexation to foreign currencies or the price level. This paper tells the story of the crisis and maps the losses to households using a dataset from tax returns that includes all taxpayers in the country and contains the value of housing, mortgage debt, disposable income, and net worth. For relative losses in net worth, the results show that families with children, especially those with parents aged between 24 …

Growth Likely In A Time Of Uncertainty, Eric Thompson

Business in Nebraska

The United States economy continues to recover from the recession which occurred during March and April of 2020. Demand has been strong for both goods and services. At the same time, supply constraints are a concern in the economy, contributing to both higher prices and in some cases lost production within industries. Supply constraints are evident in both inputs (supplies) and labor. Labor force growth has been anemic in the last two years given slow population growth and a roughly 2 percent decline in the labor force participation rate. Looking forward, the baseline outlook is for the U.S. economic recovery …

Examining The Current Role Of Out-Of-State Buyers In The Tri-Cities Within The Confines Of Residential Real Estate, Paul Arrowood

Undergraduate Honors Theses

We are seeing an influx of out-of-state buyers into Tennessee, and the Tri-Cities area specifically. As a major emerging housing market in the US, the Tri-Cities is being inundated by people from all states and walks of life seeking a better life in Appalachia. Although the reasons vary by person, many agree that political alignment, taxation levels, and the quietness of this area lends itself to population growth. While most members of the housing industry have noticed this uptick in out-of-state buyers, few have taken the time to analyze their own records or review the empirical evidence that is present …

An Alternative Class Of Ratio-Regression-Type Estimator Under Two-Phase Sampling Scheme, Muhammad Isah, Zakari Yahaya, Audu Ahmed

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

In this study, a new exponential ratio-regression estimator is developed using an auxiliary variable for estimating the finite population mean under a two-phase sampling system. The Bias and Mean Square Error (MSE) of the proposed estimator are derived and compared with some of the estimators in extant literature. Thus, the conditions under which the proposed estimator is better than some existing estimators are provided. Empirically, using four real datasets and simulation study, the proposed estimator performs better than the classical ratio, classical regression, exponential ratio, and exponential regression cum ratio estimator when compared using the criteria of bias, mean square …

Insurgency, Political Risk, And Foreign Direct Investment Inflows In Nigeria: A Sectorial Analysis, Danjuma Iyaji

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This study examines, among others, the effect of terrorism, political violence, corruption, and religious tension on FDI inflows to the banking, construction, manufacturing, oil and gas, and telecommunication sectors in Nigeria. Thus, empirical models were estimated using the fully modified ordinary least squares (FMOLS) technique. The study spans from 2008Q1 to 2017Q4. Findings show that terrorism adversely affects FDI inflow to telecommunication sector, while corruption positively impacts on the oil and gas sector. Thus, this study among other things, recommends the intensification of effort in the war against terrorism and strengthening of relevant anti-graft agencies to adequately fight corruption in …

Monetary Policy Transmission And Bank Interest Rates In Nigeria, Eleam Victor E., Ekwom Chinyelu G., Ariolu Chibueze C., Umebali Chukwubuzo J., Balogun Adewale T.

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

The paper examines the adjustment of retail and money market interest rates to changes in discount corridor of the monetary policy in Nigeria. A vector error correction model was adopted for this study, using monthly data from 2007:06 to 2019:12. We further accounted for structural breaks in the dataset to improve its policy reliability. The adjustment parameters were found to be significant but with slow speed of adjustment. This finding provides evidence of the weakness of the discount corridor in monetary policy transmission in Nigeria. Furthermore, the results showed no asymmetric adjustment of retail rates to long run equilibria. Lastly, …

Inflations And Its Uncertainty In Some Ecowas Member States: Transfer Entropy Approach, Otoakhia Eric I.

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This study examines the information flow between inflation and inflation uncertainty (IU) and intrastate inflationary trend among some ECOWAS member states. IU is measured using GARCH models and stochastic volatility model (SV). Transfer entropy was adopted to quantify the extent of information flow. The result showed information flow exists from inflation to the GARCH measure of IU. On the reverse flow from inflation uncertainty to inflation, there is no information flow except for Burkina Faso and Gambia which have asymmetric bidirectional flow between inflation and IU. Adopting SV measure for IU, there are no support for causality from inflation to …

Relationship Between Real Exchange Rate And Consumption In Nigeria: A Nonlinear Approach, Babangida Jamilu S., Sanusi Aliyu R., Yusuf Isah M.

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This study analyses the relationship between real exchange rate and domestic consumption in Nigeria using the Smooth Transition Autoregressive (STAR) model from 1981Q1 to 2019Q4. Findings show that domestic consumption determines the regime shift in real exchange rate, suggesting a nonlinear linkage with clearly distinct regimes. The lagged exchange rate is shown to have a significant linear effect on the current exchange rate. On the other hand, current foreign consumption is positive but has no significant impact on the exchange rate in the linear part of the model. In the nonlinear part of the model, evidence of a significant negative …

Essays On The Housing Market In China And Some Evidence On Inflation Targeting, Yanchao Li

All Dissertations

The housing market in China enjoys great prosperity after a continuously rapid development for more than a decade. However, there are growing concerns about possible bubbles as the price continues to rise while ordinary workers cannot afford a house. The government of China has implemented different kinds of regulations to slow rapid price increases and stabilize the market since 2007. The first paper looks at the characteristics and determinants of housing prices in different tiers of cities in China over the period 2002–2017, and then the second paper examines the impact of different types of regulations on the real estate …

Oil Price Fluctuations Impact On The Lebanese Economic Well Being, Hanadi Taher

BAU Journal - Health and Wellbeing

This paper investigates the impact of oil price fluctuation on the Lebanese economic well being during the period from 1988 to 2018 using multivariable ordinary least square method with annual time series. taking the Lebanese GDP per capita as proxy for the economic wellbeing as dependent variable and the crud oil average annual prices as proxy for oil price fluctuations with Labor and gross fixed capital formation as two control variables. The test results show a significant and positive impact for the oil price fluctuations on the Lebanese economic well being and the significant results for control variables. In testing …

Monetary Transmission In Money Markets: The Not-So-Elusive Missing Piece Of The Puzzle, Zhengyang Chen, Victor Valcarcel

Faculty Publications

We investigate the effects of U.S. monetary policy shocks from alternative policy indicators for a modern sample encompassing 1988–2020. The choice of the Wu and Xia (2016) shadow federal funds rate leads to persistent price puzzles. These puzzles arise despite inclusion of the usual suspect fixes such as commodity prices, federal funds futures and forward rate data. We find they occur at monthly and quarterly frequencies. We consider alternative indicators with the same broad monetary aggregates Keating et al. (2019) employed in their investigation of a historical sample. They provide a consistent resolution of the price puzzle and they do …

The Macroeconomic Impacts Of Entitlements, Ateeb Akhter Shah Syed, Kaneez Fatima, Riffat Naseer

The Hilltop Review

The worries expressed by Alan Greenspan that the long run economic growth of the United States will fade away due to increasing burden of entitlements motivated us to empirically investigate the impact of entitlements of key macroeconomic variables. To examine this contemporary issue, we estimate a vector error-correction model to analyze the impact of entitlements on the price level, real output, and the long-term interest rate. The results show that a shock to entitlements leads to decrease in output and lends support to the assertion made by Alan Greenspan. Several robustness checks verify that the results remain unchanged qualitatively.

Central Bank Of Nigeria And The Developmental Function: Some Thoughts On Policy Measurement Perceptions, Xavier-Itam Antigha Okon, Igonibo D. Abili

Bullion

The developmental function is one prominent contribution of the Central Bank of Nigeria to the Nigerian economy. Routine reporting of this function focuses on volume of projects funded, disbursements, and repayments. Exploring the possibility of expanding the reporting scope, this paper conceptualized and illustrated handy measures of policy anchored on macroeconomic aggregates, to track this function relative to other macroeconomic policy ends. Descriptive and inferential analyses suggested that the financial, economic and market intensity measures were quite responsive to developments in the economy and could be useful tools for policy reporting purposes. The pricing intensity indicator suggested distortions in the …

Bibliometric Review On Gold Currency And The Islamic Perspective, Muhammad Isa Mustafa, Aam Slamet Rusydiana, Muhammad Syamsul Bahri, Abdillah Arif Nasution

Library Philosophy and Practice (e-journal)

The use of gold is the beginning of the development of the monetary system in the world. The development of gold currency which has long been practiced, has undergone several evolutions from time to time. As a consequence, this evolution has implications for the development of research using gold currency. Therefore, this study aims to provide quantitative information on the development of gold currency literature. There are 917 papers in journals, books, book chapters, conference papers, and review papers indexed and indexed by the Scopus database from 1899-2021. We employed VOSViewer and Excel software to synthesize and analyze the data. …

Asymmetric Trade Flows, Monetary And Business Cycle Asynchronization Among Ecowas Member Countries: Feasibility Of Ecowas Monetary Union Formation Beyond 2020, Joseph Okwori, Walter O. Ugwuoke

Bullion

The formation of the West African Monetary Union which was initially slated for 2003 was postponed severally in 2005, 2009, 2015 and 2020. This raises the curiosity of investigating the possibility of its formation beyond 2020. It is against this backdrop that this paper investigated asymmetric trade flows, monetary policy and business cycle asynchronization among ECOWAS member countries: Feasibility of ECOWAS Monetary union formation beyond 2020. The objective was addressed using Pearson correlation analysis on computed zscores and the seemingly unrelated regression estimation (SURE). The finding shows that the flow of trade within ECOWAS member countries were highly asymmetric indicating …

Fluctuations Of Macroeconomic Variables And Manufacturing Output: Issues, Challenges And Prospects Of The Growth Of Manufacturing Output In Nigeria, Chris Ac-Ogbonna

Bullion

The study examined the impact of fluctuations of macroeconomic variables such as exchange rate, lending rates and inflation rates on the manufacturing output in Nigeria. The paper used descriptive analysis to investigate the relationship between manufacturing output and macroeconomic stability in Nigeria. The findings revealed that macroeconomic instability impacted negatively on the manufacturing output. The paper therefore recommended that policies that will streamline the multiple and volatile exchange rates, interest rate and inflation control should be designed and implemented to ensure their predictability to aid planning and attract both domestic and foreign investors to the, manufacturing sector. This is expected …