Finance Commons^™

Modelling And Forecasting Methods In Financial Economics, Shuo Gao

Dissertations, Theses, and Capstone Projects

This dissertation consists of three chapters.

Chapter 1: Behavioral heterogeneity among investors has been shown to explain the volatile nature of stock markets. In this chapter, I investigate the different behaviors of investors by proposing a heterogeneous agent model based on Chiarella et al. (2012) which involves fundamentalists, chartists, and noise traders with two-state hidden-Markov regime switching expectations. By applying the S&P 500 and CPI data from January 1990 to December 2020, the model shows strong evidence of behavioral heterogeneity among different groups of traders. After an in-sample backtesting and out-of-sample forecasting which further evaluate the capability of the model, …

Residual State Ownership, Foreign Ownership And Firms' Financing Patterns, Yu Liu, Jian Xu

School of Economics and Finance Faculty Publications

Would different types of ownerships affect each other's effect on firm behavior? We investigate the effect of residual state ownership, foreign ownership, and the interaction between the two on firms' financing patterns, employing the World Bank Enterprise Survey (WBES) dataset, which covers over 130 thousand firms in 139 economies from 2006 to 2017. We find that neither firms with residual state ownership only nor firms with foreign ownership only are positively related with external finance. In comparison, firms with both state and foreign ownerships are associated with higher external finance. The coefficient of the state-foreign interaction is both statistically and …

Constructing Indonesian Digital Economy Index In Determining Economic Policy Priorities Amidst The Covid-19 Pandemic, Diah Rukmana Sari, Nasrudin Nasrudin

Economics and Finance in Indonesia

The constant increase in the number of internet users in Indonesia amid a sluggish economy caused by the Large-Scale Social Restriction (PSBB) policy is a great opportunity for a digital-based economy. However, the unavailability of relevant macroeconomic statistical measurements inhibits the digital economy from being determined as a policy priority amidst the Covid-19 pandemic. This study offers an alternative measurement of the digital economy of Indonesia by establishing Digital Economy Index (DEI). This study discovers that digital economic activities in Indonesia have grown rapidly with an average growth of almost nine percent quarterly. On the other hand, this study also …

Bayesian And Machine Learning Methods With Applications In Asset Pricing, Yaohan Chen

Dissertations and Theses Collection (Open Access)

The dissertation consists of three essays on asset pricing by constructing new data set and developing new methodologies. In the first chapter, we conduct empirical studies on the volatility-managed portfolios in the Chinese stock market. Using data from the Chinese stock market, we have found that the main empirical findings in Moreira and Muir (2017) break down. Based on the empirical findings, we exploit a comprehensive set of $99$ equity strategies in the Chinese stock market to analyze the value of managed portfolios. Based on these $99$ equity trading strategies, we find that there exists no systematic gain from scaling …

Effectiveness Of Foreign Aid In Poverty Reduction In Africa: The Role Of Fiscal Policy, Iwegbu Onyebuchi, Risikat O. S. Dauda

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This study examines foreign aid effectiveness in poverty reduction in Africa with focus on the role of regional fiscal policy on education and health. The study employs panel dynamic ordinary least squares (DOLS) estimation technique and covers the period 1980-2017. The results reveal that foreign aid augmented with effective fiscal policy on education significantly improves the income level in all the regions except Central Africa, and consumption in the Western and Central regions. When augmented with effective fiscal policy on health foreign aid enhances households’ income in West and Central Africa and consumption in West and Southern regions. Furthermore, foreign …

Effect Of Monetary Policy Rate On Market Interest Rates In Nigeria: A Threshold And Nardl Approach, Oluwafemi E. Awopegba, Joseph O. Afolabi, Lydia T. Adeoye, Godwin O. Akpokodje

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This study examines the effect of monetary policy rate (MPR) on market interest rates in Nigeria. For parsimony, we develop two indexes called the short-term interest rate (SINT) and Lending interest rate (LINT) to represent deposit and lending rates respectively. The nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) and threshold regression models are adopted. The study uses monthly data from 2002:M1 to 2019:M12. The results of the threshold regression model indicate that the degree of the effect of MPR on SINT and LINT above the estimated threshold of 11 and 13 percent respectively is greater and significant than if MPR were to …

Social Dimension Of Inclusive Growth In Ecowas: Implication For Poverty Reduction, Toriola K. Anu, Goerge O. Emmanuel, Ajayi O. Felix

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This study investigates the implication of the social dimension of inclusive growth on poverty reduction in Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) countries. It specifically examines how social indices of inclusive growth comprising of income inequality, education, and health outcomes affect poverty reduction. The study uses a panel dataset of the six (6) lower-middle income countries in ECOWAS which was analysed via panel Difference Generalised Method of Moment (D-GMM). The results show that GDP per capita exerts significant negative effect on poverty while inequality, education and health outcomes do not show significant effect on poverty. Although, the estimates of …

Effect Of Fdi Inflows On Employment Generation In Selected Ecowas Countries: Heterogeneous Panel Analysis, Timothy A. Aderemi, Olawunmi Omitogun, Bukonla G. Osisanwo

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

The aim of this study is to examine the effect of FDI on employment in ECOWAS sub region between 1990 and 2019. The study utilizes a panel autoregressive distributed lag model to analyse the short run and long run relationship between FDI and employment across ECOWAS sub region. In the short run, the impact of FDI on employment is negative and statistically not significant. Meanwhile, in the long run FDI has a positive and statistically significant impact on employment rate. This implies that FDI has the capacity to generate employment in countries in ECOWAS sub region. Therefore, this study recommends …

Impact Of Covid-19 Pandemic On The Nigeria Stock Market: A Sectoral Stock Prices Analysis, Peter A. Adekunle, Yakubu A. Bello, Udochukwu G. Nwachukwu

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This study examines the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on sectoral stock prices in Nigeria stock market using daily data covering from February 28, 2020 to June 26, 2020. Applying the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds test, the study finds that COVID-19 pandemic had adverse impact on the stock market indices in the short run. Furthermore, the study documents negative response of sectoral stock prices to the pandemic while the stock prices of the banking sub-sector are the worst hit. Compared to the consumer goods, and industrial subsector indices, the speed of adjustment to long run equilibrium is faster for …

Internal Capital Markets And Predictability In Complex Ownership Firms, Ran Chang, Angelica Gonzalez, Sergei Sarkissian, Jun Tu

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

Using global cross-firm ownership data, we find that both stock returns and cash-flow news of ownership-linked firms predict focal firm's returns for all types of ownership structures: subsidiary-parent, parent-subsidiary, subsidiary-subsidiary, and parent-parent. This effect, observed only after the establishment of cross-firm ownership, is not subsumed by focal firm or industry momentum, or alternative inter-firm relations, including customer-supplier links and shared analyst coverage. Our findings are explained by mispricing due to internal capital markets - a mechanism unique to complex ownership firms. Higher internal capital market activity among ownership-linked firms also induces larger investments and lower external financing of the focal …

Youth Entrepreneurship Dynamics In Benin: Was Access To Finance The Missing Piece For Opportunistic Self-Employment?, Modeste Melain Senou, Kolotioloman Soro

The Journal of Entrepreneurial Finance

Young people in developing countries and more especially in Sub-Saharan African countries are seeking employment opportunities in challenging economic and social environments. Entrepreneurship appears then as a key factor in reducing unemployment, grasping for a sustainable job and reducing poverty. Both national and international authorities are taking steps to facilitate youth entrepreneurship. In that context, this study aims at reexamining the effect of access to finance on the dynamics of entrepreneurship of young people in transition from School to work in Benin. Using a SURE Probit procedure on data from the International Labor Organization (ILO) we estimated jointly the predicted …

Representation Learning In Finance, Ajim Uddin

Dissertations

Finance studies often employ heterogeneous datasets from different sources with different structures and frequencies. Some data are noisy, sparse, and unbalanced with missing values; some are unstructured, containing text or networks. Traditional techniques often struggle to combine and effectively extract information from these datasets. This work explores representation learning as a proven machine learning technique in learning informative embedding from complex, noisy, and dynamic financial data. This dissertation proposes novel factorization algorithms and network modeling techniques to learn the local and global representation of data in two specific financial applications: analysts’ earnings forecasts and asset pricing.

Financial analysts’ earnings forecast …

Book Review Of Mind Over Money: The Psychology Of Money And How To Use It Better By Claudia Hammond, Stephen Molchan

Journal of Social, Behavioral, and Health Sciences

Mind Over Money: The Psychology of Money and How to Use It Better, by Claudia Hammond, explores research in psychology, neuroscience, biology, and behavioral economics related to how individuals interact with and manage money. Hammond is a broadcaster on the BBC, writer, and professor of psychology. In Mind Over Money: The Psychology of Money and How to Use It Better, Hammond uses captivating interviews, presents stories a broad audience can relate to, and cites multiple research studies to show the psychology of money. Throughout the book, Hammond not only presents readers with the research, 263 studies are mentioned, …

Young Adults And Money: The Covid-19 Pandemic, Michael Mariano

Honors Projects in Finance

This study looks to explore the relationship between the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on the economy and young investors. More specifically, this research looks to answer the question: how have young adults, ages 18-25, responded to the economic distress caused by the COVID-19 pandemic with their investing decisions? Through analyzing a sample of young adults, ages 18-25, this study will develop a deeper and broader perspective on the unique impact that the COVID-19 pandemic has had on the investing decisions of young adults. Using a mix of literary studies on similar historical events and a sample study of young …

Reforming The United States’ Currency Production, William Cather

Departmental Honors & Graduate Capstone Projects

Since the 1980s, the debate about the one-cent piece’s production and use has been discussed throughout relatively recent Congressional history; and has involved economic, financial, industry-based, as well as numismatic groups to weigh in on the topic. The question arises: Why have other countries successfully changed their lower-denomination currency and converted their economic system into one that incorporates cash-rounding while the United States has struggled to do so?

By observing international examples of the obsoletion of low-denomination coinage and the implementation of cash-rounding, the proposed economic and financial reform has proved to work as an economically-sound alternative to the current …

Save, Gamble, Or Both? The Relationship Between Premium Bond Sales And Lottery Sales In The United Kingdom, Kaden Grace

Honors Theses

Four out of every ten Americans are unable to pay for an unexpected $400 bill out of their savings accounts. To ameliorate this problem, one policy to incentivize saving is a Prize-Linked Savings Account (PLSA). Unlike a traditional savings account that pays out a consistent rate of return, a PLSA pools the interest on all deposits and distributes the returns in randomly drawn prizes (similar to a lottery). However, PLSAs remain illegal in many areas due to a concern that the introduction of a private or public PLSA could cannibalize revenue from an existing state-sponsored lottery, thus restricting the state’s …

The Evolution Of Fiscal Impact Analysis And Where It Needs To Go, L. Carson Bise, Colin Mcaweeney

Journal of Comparative Urban Law and Policy

Communities need analytical tools and technical support to assess and balance multiple priorities when making land use and development decisions. For many communities, priorities to be considered regarding land use decisions include resource conservation and climate adaptation, economic development, investing in new versus existing communities, and maintaining fiscal responsibility. This article examines the historical use of fiscal impact analysis and some thoughts on where the field should go in the future.

Heterogeneous Decision-Making And Market Power: An Application To Eurozone Banks, Levent Kutlu, Robin C. Sickles, Mike G. Tsionas, Emmanuel Mamatzakis

School of Economics and Finance Faculty Publications

We provide a structural model wherein the decision-makers are payoff maximizers in a general game theoretic setting in which heterogeneity is formally factored into the decisions of the players. The decision-makers are allowed to have different groups; and parameters are the same within each group but they differ across group. Using insights from our treatment of heterogeneous and strategic decision-making, we estimate the conducts (market powers) of Eurozone banks for years 2002–2015. We find that Eurozone banks are fairly competitive. However, banks in peripheral countries have more market power compared to the core of Eurozone.

Economic Opportunity And Community Development Financial Institutions In Clark County, Ar And Beyond: An Analysis, Magdalena Hopkins

Economics Undergraduate Honors Theses

Arkansas is home to one of the greatest projects in the world of Community Development Financial Institutions: Southern Bancorp. Founded with the help and support of Bill Clinton, it pre-dates The Riegle Community Development and Regulatory Improvement Act of 1994, which is now used to fund similar Community Development Financial Institutions. According to the Opportunity Finance Network (2022), there are more than 1,200 Community Development Financial Institutions in the United States. These institutions span the country and operate in unique communities. The CDFI Coalition (2017) cites Arkansas as having 19 Community Development Financial Institutions in the state. It is important …

Laissez-Faire, Social Networks, And Race In A Pandemic, Roland Pongou, Guy Tchuente, Jean-Baptiste Tondji

School of Economics and Finance Faculty Publications

We study the effects of race, network centrality, and policies that tolerate some level of virus spread (laissez-faire) on COVID-19 deaths in nursing homes in the United States. Our analysis uses unique data on nursing home networks and calibration-based estimates of states' preferences for health relative to short-term economic gains. Our findings suggest that laissez-faire policies increase deaths. Nursing homes with a larger share of Black residents experience more deaths, but they are less vulnerable to laissez-faire policies, especially when not central in social networks. Our findings highlight significant interactions between COVID-19 policies, race, and network structure among US seniors.