Finance Commons^™

Bayesian Methods In Economics And Finance: Editor's Introduction, Jun Yu

Research Collection School Of Economics

Modern days, Bayesian methods have gained prominence in theoretical work and applications in economics and finance due to the rapid development of computational technologies and their ability to learn. The special issue intends to examine central aspects in Bayesian analysis and applications, including prior choices, model selection with massive data and latent variables, hypothesis testing, Bayesian learning. In total, this special issue contains ten papers, all subject to the Journal of Econometrics (JOE)’s normal refereeing process. Most of these papers came from a conference held at the ESSEC Singapore campus on 10 December 2018.

Charging Drivers By The Gallon Vs. The Mile: An Equity Analysis By Geography And Income In California, Samuel Speroni, Asha Weinstein Agrawal, Michael Manville, Brian D. Taylor

Mineta Transportation Institute

This study used data from the 2017 National Household Travel Survey California Add-On sample to explore how replacing the current state vehicle fuel tax with a flat-per-mile-rate road-user charge (RUC) would affect costs for different kinds of households. We first estimated how household vehicle fuel efficiency, mileage, and fuel tax expenditures vary by geography (rural vs. urban) and by income. These findings were then used to estimate how much different types of households pay in the current per-gallon state fuel tax, what they would pay if the state were to replace fuel taxes with a flat-rate road-usage charge (RUC) that …

Overnight Returns, Daytime Reversals, And Future Stock Returns, Ferhat Akbas, Ekkehart Boehmer, Chao Jiang, Paul D. Koch

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

A higher frequency of positive overnight returns followed by negative trading day reversals during a month suggests a more intense daily tug of war between opposing investor clienteles, who are likely composed of noise traders overnight and arbitrageurs during the day. We show that a more intense daily tug of war predicts higher future returns in the cross section. Additional tests support the conclusion that, in a more intense tug of war, daytime arbitrageurs are more likely to discount the possibility that positive news arrives overnight and thus overcorrect the persistent upward overnight price pressure.

Political Connections, Informational Asymmetry, And The Efficient Resolution Of Financial Distress, Madhav S. Aney, Sanjay Banerji

Research Collection School Of Economics

We show that securities issued by a distressed firm, often through exchange offers, providethe most efficient resolution of financial restructuring. Information asymmetry between thefirm-bank coalition and small bondholders gives rise to other forms of distress resolutionsuch as refinancing, public workout, and the inefficiency of liquidation. We find that politicallobbying by the firm-bank amplifies these inefficiencies and inhibits the development of privatemarket for distressed securities. Cross-country evidence is consistent with this and indicatesthat improved creditor rights, and information facilitating credit bureaus interact in reducingthe likelihood of inefficient distress resolution.

Executive Compensation And The Potential For Additional Efficiency Gains: Evidence From The Indian Manufacturing Sector, Levent Kutlu, Usha Nair-Reichert

School of Economics and Finance Faculty Publications

We examine the relationship between executive compensation and technical efficiency. We highlight heterogeneity in this relationship, identify opportunities for within-sector efficiency gains, and the channels through which such gains occur. Previous research mainly focuses on excessive executive compensation that does not reflect firm performance. We develop unique measures for executive overcompensation and undercompensation, and account for endogeniety. Using firm-level data for the Indian chemical, textile, and pharmaceutical sectors during 2004–2015, we conclude that the median firm overcompensates and large firms undercompensate their executives. Overcompensation decreases firms’ profits as increased executive costs outweigh the benefits of efficiency gains. Firms in the …

Pharmacy Performance Based On Financial Perspective Before And During Covid-19 Pandemic : A Case Study, Eva Sartika Dasopang, Ida Fauziah, Fenny Hasanah, Desy Natalia Siahaan, Dina Yunisma Rasyida Lubis

Pharmaceutical Sciences and Research

A pharmacy, aside from being a pharmaceutical care provider is also a functioning business. Thus, in the scope of business, pharmacy performance can be analysed using liquidity, activity, and profitability ratios. This study aimed to determine the performance of Pharmacy X based on a financial perspective before and during the COVID-19 pandemic. This research is a descriptive cross-sectional study that employed data obtained from sales and purchase records. The data were analysed using financial ratio analysis methods, including liquidity, activity, and profitability ratios. This study was conducted at Pharmacy X based on the amount of prescription and non-prescription income from …

Can Geopolitics Help Restore Missing Tools To The U.S. Trade Toolbox?, Matthew Schaefer

Yeutter Institute International Trade Policy Review

When U.S. trade negotiators and trade litigators seek to increase market access for U.S. goods and services abroad, they look in their toolbox to see what might be the best tool. The more well-stocked the toolbox, the more possibilities for increasing foreign market access. Today, when U.S. trade negotiators look in their toolbox, they see several traditional tools missing, specifically legally-binding, comprehensive (including tariff-cutting) regional and bilateral free trade agreements (FTAs) and large package deals within the World Trade Organization (WTO). Their trade litigator colleagues face a similar circumstance of missing traditional tools, specifically the loss of binding two-level dispute …

Repairing Provincial Finance, Ishrat Husain Dr.

Faculty Research - Newspaper and Magazine Articles

Most of the discussion and discourse on public finances has remained focused on the federal government and FBR. The analysis of provincial finances has been sketchy and shallow, although it should occupy a salient place in the aftermath of the 18th Amendment and 7th National Finance Commission Award. It has been a decade now since the provincial governments have enjoyed both administrative, legal, and political autonomy and a large dose of injection of financial resources out of the divisible tax pool.

Does Microcredit Reduce Poverty? An Empirical Exploration In India, Aneel Karnani, Seema Sahai

Markets, Globalization & Development Review

Microcredit has grown dramatically over the last few decades and its supporters have made extravagant promises about its potential impact on reducing poverty. However, much recent research has shown that microcredit has no significant impact on reducing poverty. In this exploratory study we interview 205 clients of for-profit microcredit to better understand the causes of why microcredit has not lived up to its promise. We find the basic problem is that the lending policies of the microcredit organizations are designed to lower the costs and risks, and hence increase the profits of the organization, and are not responsive to the …

Systematic And Idiosyncratic Risks Of The U.S. Airline Industry, Rafiqul Bhuyan, André Varella Mollick, Md Ruhul Amin

School of Economics and Finance Faculty Publications

Understanding the risky nature of the airline industry has received attention in the tourism literature from separate angles. Although the systematic risk of the airline industry has been examined before, idiosyncratic risk has largely been ignored. This study fills this gap in the tourism literature by investigating the effect of passengers’ air travel on systematic and idiosyncratic risks of the U.S. airline industry. Using historical air travel data and utilizing both OLS and fixed-effect models, this paper documents negative relationships between the occupancy of airline seats and idiosyncratic risks for 21 U.S. airline companies. This negative effect of occupancy is …

Full Disclosure: Model Uncertainty In Adjusting For Confounders, Dieudonne Dusenge

Graduate Theses and Dissertations

This study examines the role of knowledge about underlying causal relationships in classifying controls in order to mitigate omitted- and included-variable biases. Using simulations and accounting examples, the study shows that the researcher may not distinguish good and bad controls because the underlying causal relationships are unobservable, and remedying strategies (such as the relative timing of measurement) may not remove the uncertainty in the classification. Because of the uncertainty about which controls to use, two or more models will be credible as will the distinct estimates derived from them. Next, the study shows that the current standard practice of singling …

Three Chapters On Investments And Financial Institutions, Cao Fang

Graduate Theses and Dissertations

Only the stock selection (“alpha”) decisions of fund managers who trade on firm-specific information should have predictive return content. Faced with the same information, skilled fund managers make similar stock selection decisions. In Chapter one, we introduce a new measure - stock investment quality - which uses fund quality to weight asymmetries in private information reflected in deviations of fund from peer group ownership on stocks in a style segment. We show stocks ranked high on investment quality generate significantly higher excess returns that persist through the ensuing year. The positive investment quality–future return relationship is robust to alternative fund …

Inflation Expectations Can Be A Self-Fulfilling Prophecy, Aurobindo Ghosh, Khyati Chauhan, Muskan Bagrodia

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

In a commentary, SMU Assistant Professor of Finance (Education) Aurobindo Ghosh, SMU postgraduate student and Research Assistant for the SInDEx Project Muskan Bagrodia and International Monetary Fund Economic Research Assistant Khyati Chauhan weighed in on why inflation expectations matter as much as economic data. They discussed how inflation expectations can be a self-fulfilling prophecy, and shared the key takeaways of the quarterly DBS-Sim Kee Boon Institute’s Singapore Index of Inflation Expectations (DBS-SKBI SInDEx) survey. They concluded that effective communication on inflation control measures, in addition to credible policy decisions, will help consumers feel assured and refrain from basing purchasing decisions …

The Cryptocurrency Participation Puzzle, Ran Duchin, David H. Solomon, Jun Tu, Xi Wang

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

We show that ongoing zero portfolio weights in cryptocurrency are surprisingly difficult to generate in a standard Bayesian portfolio theory framework. With ten years of prior data, equity market investors would need very pessimistic priors on mean returns to justify never having bought cryptocurrency: -10.6% per month for Bitcoin, and -19.6% per month for a diversified portfolio of cryptocurrencies. Moreover, most priors that involve never purchasing cryptocurrency imply that investors should short cryptocurrency. Optimal absolute weights are generally small but non-trivial (1-5%), frequently positive, and fairly smooth despite returns being volatile. Under a wide range of priors, the certainty equivalent …

International Asset Pricing With Strategic Business Groups, Massimo Massa, Hong Zhang, Hong Zhang

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

Firms in global markets often belong to business groups. We argue that this feature can have a profound influence on international asset pricing. In bad times, business groups may strategically reallocate risk across affiliated firms to protect core “central firms.” This strategic behavior induces co-movement among central firms, creating a new intertemporal risk factor. Based on a novel data set of worldwide ownership for 2002–2012, we find that central firms are better protected in bad times and that they earn relatively lower expected returns. Moreover, a centrality factor augments traditional models in explaining the cross section of international stock returns.

Customer Concentration And Corporate Carbon Emissions, Saiying Deng, Tinghua Duan, Frank Weikai Li, Xiaoling Pu

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

This paper examines whether economic links with major corporate customers curb corporate carbon emissions. We show that supplier firms with a concentrated customer base have significantly lower carbon emissions. The baseline results are robust to alternative measures of carbon emissions and customer concentration, and various approaches that mitigate endogeneity concerns due to omitted variables and reverse causality. Moreover, the curbing effect of customer concentration on supplier carbon emissions is more pronounced in firms facing lower customer switching costs, with less (more) supplier (customer) bargaining power, fewer redeployable assets, operating in more carbon-intensive industries, and after the Paris Agreement of 2015. …

Social Security As Markov Equilibrium In Olg Models: Clarifications And New Insights, Armando R. Lopez-Velasco

School of Economics and Finance Faculty Publications

Forni (2005) is the first author to study the politico-economic sustainability of pay-as-you-go social security in the canonical 2-period OLG model that uses Cobb-Douglas production and logarithmic utility under Markovian voting strategies. This paper (1) shows that equilibria can only exist if the economy in absence of social security is dynamically inefficient, (2) derives the exact parametric conditions that lead to existence of equilibria, (3) shows that among all the admissible arbitrary constants that produce a Markov perfect equilibrium, the maximum constant in such set produces the only equilibrium that can solve dynamic inefficiency and produces a single steady state. …

Does The Financial Experience Of Sec Regional Directors Impact Sec Investigations Into Reporting Entities?, James Justin Blann

Graduate Theses and Dissertations

The SEC’s Division of Enforcement is frequently criticized for its lack of oversight effectiveness, and certain vocal critics attribute this to a lack of financial experience within the SEC. Using hand-collected data on SEC regional directors, I find that the majority of these SEC officials lack financial experience. I then examine whether the financial experience of SEC regional directors impacts SEC investigations into reporting entities. Consistent with financial experience equipping directors to better process complex financial transactions and reports, I find that directors with financial experience open public company investigations 29 percent more often and conduct these investigations 34 percent …

Student Loan Debt In Mountain West States, Zachary Walusek, Caitlin J. Saladino, William E. Brown Jr.

Higher Education

This fact sheet summarizes findings on student loan debt across Mountain West states from “Student Loan Debt by State,” a report by the Education Data Initiative.

Protecting The Sovereign's Money Monopoly, Gary B. Gordon, Jeffery Zhang

Law & Economics Working Papers

Sovereign states have had a monopoly over the production of circulating currencies for well over a century. Governments, not private entities, issue circulating currencies. Indeed, in 1986, Milton Friedman and Anna Schwartz declared that “[t]he question of government monopoly of hand-to-hand currency is likely to remain a largely dead issue.” The advent of stablecoins—privately issued digital money that are pegged to fiat currencies like the U.S. dollar or the Euro—raises the question of the money monopoly from the grave.

Why did sovereign money monopolies come into existence in the 19th and 20th centuries? Should circulating private money coexist once again …