Finance Commons^™

Tail Risk In International Markets, Yanchu Wang

Open Access Dissertations

Tail risk, defined as extreme event risk in asset markets, is an important consideration for investors when making investment decisions. This paper empirically tests the role of tail risk in international market. Using sample of 40 countries from 1980 to 2014, I show that tail risk positively predicts future market returns. Across all countries, stocks with high sensitivity to past global tail risk on average will earn higher returns than stocks with low sensitivity. In addition, I show that tail risk act as a global transmission channel of contagion during crisis.

Mergers And Acquisitions In Food And Agribusiness: Returns, Drivers, And Long Run Performance, Josiah M. Ringelberg

Open Access Theses

Food and agribusiness in the U.S is a dynamic and ever changing business. The industry has seen booms and busts, considerable consolidation, and continued globalization in the past few decades. Businesses operating within its sectors have had to demonstrate flexibility and adaptability as the industry’s landscape consolidates at the consumer, supplier, and producer level. One strategy companies have used to grow and position themselves throughout years of industry consolidation has been merger and acquisition (M&A) transactions.

During the eleven years from 1985 and 1995, the food industry was listed in the top 10 M&A most active industries ten times. It …

Demand Uncertainty And Investment In The Restaurant Industry, Jayoung Sohn

Open Access Dissertations

Since the collapse of the housing market, the prolonged economic uncertainty lingering in the U.S. economy has dampened restaurant performance. Economic uncertainty affects consumer sentiment and spending, turning into demand uncertainty. Nevertheless, the highly competitive nature of the restaurant industry does not allow much room for restaurants to actively control prices, leaving most food service firms exposed to demand uncertainty. To investigate the impact of demand uncertainty in the restaurant industry, this study focused on the implications of demand uncertainty for investment.

The first essay in chapter 3 examined the impact of demand uncertainty on investment and how the impact …

Indebtedness And Subjective Financial Wellbeing Of Households In Indonesia, Dwini Handayani

Economics and Finance in Indonesia

Indebtedness is an element to foresee household financial wellbeing. This vulnerability could be determined objectively and subjectively. Objective financial vulnerability is the objective ability to make ends meet that is analyzed using household income and characteristics. Measurement in subjective welbeing is determined by household perceptions in their ability to make ends meet. Household behavior with different perceptions will behave differently. Indebtedness is analyzed using the Indonesian Family Life Survey (IFLS) 5 with the Ordinary Least Square method. The inferential shows that both objective and subjective financial wellbeing influence household indebtedness. Kedalaman hutang merupakan elemen untuk mengetahui kesejahteraan finansial rumah tangga. …

State Based Financial Liberalization, Robert J. Kulzick

Open Access Dissertations

In the last 40 years, states around the globe have increased the role of markets in their financial systems. Using newly collected information on the educational backgrounds of Central Bankers, I demonstrate that the beliefs of state officials about the proper role of markets in the financial system influence the extent to which state's liberalize their financial systems. By tracing the liberalization experiences in both France and China through secondary sources, I show that bureaucrats within the state suggest reforms that conform to their neoliberal training when political leaders turn to them for solutions to what are perceived as technical …

Local Investment And The Relationship Between Prices And Earnings, Michael Hyman

Dissertations - ALL

This paper examines how local stock ownership influences the relationship between stock prices and future earnings. Prior finance literature has found that local investment leads to superior returns and has suggested that these returns are a result of an informational edge for those who invest locally. However, the literature has yet to examine which types of information local investors have access to and how that impacts the informativeness of stock prices. This paper shows that local investors have access to earnings-relevant information which results in stock prices which better lead future earnings for companies with larger local ownership bases. This …

Lumpy Investment, Lumpy Inventories, Ruediger Bachmann, Lin Ma

Research Collection School Of Economics

The link between the microenvironment (frictions and heterogeneity) and the macroeconomic dynamics of general equilibrium macromodels is influenced by exactly how general equilibrium closes the model. We make this observation concrete using the recent literature on how nonconvex capital adjustment costs influence aggregate investment dynamics. We introduce inventories into a two-sector lumpy investment model and find that nonconvex capital adjustment costs dampen and propagate investment impulse responses, more so than without inventories. With two means of transferring consumption into the future, fixed capital and inventories, the tight link between aggregate saving and fixed capital investment is broken.

2015 Statistical Bulletin: Domestic Production, Consumption And Prices, Central Bank Of Nigeria

CBN Statistical Bulletin

Statistics of Gross Domestic Product and Expenditure at current Purchaser's prices for the year 2015.

The Role Of Central Banks In Assisting Regional Economic Policy Making, Randall W. Eberts

Presentations

No abstract provided.

An Event Study Of Patent Verdicts And Judicial Leakage, Bryan Engelhardt, Zachary Fernandes

Economics Department Working Papers

To check for the impartiality of the United States judicial system, we investigate whether judicial decisions are leaked prior to their public release. Utilizing an event study methodology, we test for leaked information by analyzing the effect of patent infringement verdicts on the stock prices of the firms involved before and after the public release of the verdict. We find evidence that at least some of the decisions are leaked prior to their public release.

The Integrity Of Financial Analysts: Evidence From Asymmetric Responses To Earnings Surprises, Rui Lu, Wenxuan Hou, Henry Oppenheimer, Ting Zhang

Economics and Finance Faculty Publications

This paper investigates the integrity of financial analysts by examining their recommendation responses to large quarterly earnings surprises. Although there is no significant difference in recommendation changes between affiliated and unaffiliated analysts in response to positive earnings surprises, affiliated analysts are more reluctant than unaffiliated analysts to downgrade stock recommendations in response to negative earnings surprises. The evidence implies that conflicts of interest undermine the integrity of financial analysts. We further examine the effects of reputation concern and the Global Research Analyst Settlement as informal and formal mechanisms, on restoring analysts’ integrity. The results show that the positive bias in …

Institutional Ownership Stability And Real Earnings Management, Hamid Sakaki, Dave Jackson, Surendranath Jory

Economics and Finance Faculty Publications

We examine the relationship between institutional ownership stability and real earnings management. Our findings indicate that firms held by more stable institutional owners experience lower real activities manipulation by limiting overproduction. We further examine how the stability in the shareholdings of pressure-sensitive and insensitive institutional investors affect target firms’ use of real earnings management, respectively. Unlike pressure-sensitive institutional investors, the stability in the share ownership of pressure-insensitive institutional investors (i.e., investment advisors, pension funds and endowments) mitigates target firms’ use of real earnings management. Overall, our results are consistent with the view that institutional investors presence acts as a monitor …

Long-Run Equilibrium Shift And Short-Run Dynamics Of U.S. Home Price Tiers During The Housing Bubble, Damian S. Damianov, Diego Escobari

Economics and Finance Faculty Publications

We use vector error correction models to examine the interdependence between the high and the low price tiers during the latest housing market boom and bust. For 118 of the 364 US statistical areas analyzed, the tiered price indexes are bound by a long-run relationship. In general, low tier homes appreciated more than high tier homes in the past two decades. In contrast to previous periods of high volatility, however, low tier homes appreciated more during the boom and lost more value during the bust of the market. We find a shift in the long-run equilibrium during the bubble —the …

Mexico Consensus Economic Forecast, Volume 19, Number 3, Thomas M. Fullerton Jr., Adam G. Walke

Border Region Modeling Project

No abstract provided.

Reducing Asymmetric Information In Venture Capital Backed Ipos, Diego Escobari, Alejandro Serrano

Economics and Finance Faculty Publications

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to model asymmetric information and study the profitability of venture capital (VC) backed initial public offerings (IPOs). The mixtures approach endogenously separates IPOs into differentiated groups based on their returns’ determinants. The authors also analyze the factors that affect the probability that IPOs belong to a specific group.

Design/methodology/approach

The authors propose a new method to model asymmetric information between investors and firms in VC backed IPOs. The approach allows the authors to identify differentiated companies under incomplete information. The authors use a sample of 2,404 US firms from 1980 through 2012 to …

"Gravity Models" Applied To Projections For New Casinos: Techniques And Results, Will E. Cummings

International Conference on Gambling & Risk Taking

All developers of new casinos prepare, or have prepared for them, projections for the likely gaming-revenue performance of those casinos; in many cases; regulatory authorities in North America also require or commission independent third-party assessments of such performance. These projections are very frequently based on "gravity models," applying techniques pioneered by Reilly and Huff to analyze other retail activities in relation to the geographic distribution of competitors and potential customers. In this paper, I review roughly 80 examples of such applications from recent casino-licensing procedures in the U.S., and compare their results.

Self-Correcting Kelly Strategies For Skeptical Traders, Aaron C. Brown

International Conference on Gambling & Risk Taking

The Kelly criterion gives the appropriate bet size in idealized situations with known parameters. In financial trading situations parameters are generally unknown and the mathematical assumptions underlying the Kelly proof are not met precisely. Moreover a risk manager typically must cooperate with a trader who may be skeptical about both the Kelly criterion specifically and the concept of mathematical optimization of bet size in general.

This presentation tackles the problem of designing a Kelly-based system for setting trade risk management parameters that is both self-correcting (the system delivers good results even if initial parameter are misestimated or parameters change) and …

الملكية والدولة الاقتصاد المتناغم أم المتناقض…؟ العراق انموذجا مع اشارة لبعض الدول مقارنة للمدة 2003-2014, غسان طارق ظاهر

Muthanna Journal of Administrative and Economics Sciences

تواجه الاقتصادات النامية ضغوطا على الانفاق التشغيلي، لتلبية متطلبات البنية التحتية العامة فضلا عن ان قيود التمويل في هذه البلدان أكثر حدة منها في الاقتصادات المتقدمة، مما يجعلها عرضة لعجز دائم في موازناتها العامة، لذا دعت المنظمات الدولية الدول النامية الى ضبط الانفاق العام واحترام الحدود الموضوعة للضرائب والاقتراض بما يتناغم مع الية الرأسمالية الجديدة، فقد فرضت معاهدة الاستقرار والنمو التي عقدها الاتحاد الاوروبي “على جميع الاقتصادات غنية كانت أم فقيرة، أن توزع مواردها المحدودة بين احتياجاتها المتنافسة بما يحقق التوازن بين الاستثمار المادي والاستثمار في رأس المال البشري كالتعليم والرعاية الصحية والقطاعات الاجتماعية الاخرى مع التأكد من كفاية الموارد …

فرض الاستمرارية وإمكانية استخدام بعض المؤشرات المالية للإبلاغ عن التعثر المالي في الشركات العامة “دراسة تطبيقية في الشركة العامة للإسمنت الجنوبية”, علي عباس كريم

Muthanna Journal of Administrative and Economics Sciences

يعتبر فرض الاستمرارية أحد الفروض الأساسية في إعداد القوائم المالية. ويعني فرض الاستمرارية النظر إلى المنشاة على أنها مستمرة في مزاولة نشاطها في المستقبل القريب، وان المنشاة ليست مضطرة-كما لا يوجد لديها النية_ لتصفية او تقليص حجم أعمالها أو البحث عن وسائل للحماية من الدائنين بما يتوافق مع القوانين أو اللوائح. ويجب على المراقب دراسة مدى ملائمة تطبيق الإدارة لفرض الاستمرارية عند إعداد القوائم المالية، مع مراعاة انه إذا كان هناك شك كبير في قدرة المنشاة على الاستمرارية ان يتم الإفصاح عن ذلك في القوائم المالية .وقد جاءت هذه الدراسة لتسلط الضوء على الإلية التي يجب ان يعتمد عليها مراقب …

Daniel Defoe’S Literary Economies: The Shifting Role Of Narrative Uncertainty, Speculation, And Providence In Robinson Crusoe And Roxana., Terese J. Swords

Lawrence University Honors Projects

In my honors project, I analyze how Daniel Defoe’s first novel, Robinson Crusoe (1719), and his last, Roxana (1724), offer shifting economic commentary regarding England’s emerging 18^th century credit economy. This shift does not come as too much of a surprise, as his first and last novel straddle the historic moment of the South Sea Bubble’s burst. Therefore, Defoe’s works, when analyzed sequentially, capture the evolving attitude towards value and credit that was occurring throughout all of England.

In my first chapter, “Crusoe’s Post Facto Journal Editing: ‘How wonderfully we are delivered when we are aware of it,’” I …