Finance Commons^™

Feats And Failures Of Corporate Credit Risk, Stock Returns, And The Interdependencies Of Sovereign Credit Risk, Uche C. Isiugo

University of New Orleans Theses and Dissertations

This dissertation comprises two essays; the first of which investigates sovereign credit risk interdependencies, while the second examines the reaction of corporate credit risk to sovereign credit risk events. The first essay titled, Characterizing Sovereign Credit Risk Interdependencies: Evidence from the Credit Default Swap Market, investigates the relationships that exist among disparate sovereign credit default swaps (CDS) and the implications on sovereign creditworthiness. We exploit emerging market sovereign CDS spreads to examine the reaction of sovereign credit risk to changes in country-specific and global financial factors. Utilizing aVAR model fitted with DCC GARCH, we find that comovements of spreads …

B.E.I.B. And Financial Inclusion In Northwest Cameroon, Kareen Ngendape Atchala

Capstone Collection

The Bee Effect Initiative Bank uses an integrated approach to foster financial inclusion in the North West region of Cameroon. This paper has several services under three main themes; economic wellbeing, capacity building, and insurance. Its theory of change and objectives while seeking to make profit centers on creating social change. The mechanics in the paper seek to evoke sustainable economic change in cross sectors- savings, credit, capacity building, and insurance with ROSCAs as target clientele.

Lowering Regional Inflation? Improve Budget Absorption, Vid Adrison

Economics and Finance in Indonesia

The subnational government spending in Indonesia exhibit a highly skewed distribution, i.e., it is very low in the first two-quarters and then increases significantly in the last two-quarters. Such explosive pattern poses two disadvantages. First, the regional output will fall below its optimal level as the low government capital expenditure leads to a fewer provision of public goods. Second, a significant increase in government spending in the later quarter pushes the short run aggregate demand to the northeast and creates an inflationary pressure in the following quarters. In this study, we analyze the effect of quarterly regional government expenditure growth …

Portfolio Flows Into Indonesia: Push Or Pull?, Chaikal Nuryakin

Economics and Finance in Indonesia

This paper focuses on the dynamic of the portfolio flows into Indonesia. The result of Structural Vector Autoregression (SVAR) model reveals that push factors is more dominant than pull factors in explaining portfolio flows into Indonesia. Portfolio flows into Indonesia are positively correlated with regionals stock market performance and negatively correlated to the federal funds rate. On the pull factors, domestic risk (the Credit Default Swap spread) is more dominant than domestic return (the BI rate) in explaining the flows. Thus, it is important for authorities to have more focus on domestic risk relative to rate of return in managing …

Tail Risk In International Markets, Yanchu Wang

Open Access Dissertations

Tail risk, defined as extreme event risk in asset markets, is an important consideration for investors when making investment decisions. This paper empirically tests the role of tail risk in international market. Using sample of 40 countries from 1980 to 2014, I show that tail risk positively predicts future market returns. Across all countries, stocks with high sensitivity to past global tail risk on average will earn higher returns than stocks with low sensitivity. In addition, I show that tail risk act as a global transmission channel of contagion during crisis.

Mergers And Acquisitions In Food And Agribusiness: Returns, Drivers, And Long Run Performance, Josiah M. Ringelberg

Open Access Theses

Food and agribusiness in the U.S is a dynamic and ever changing business. The industry has seen booms and busts, considerable consolidation, and continued globalization in the past few decades. Businesses operating within its sectors have had to demonstrate flexibility and adaptability as the industry’s landscape consolidates at the consumer, supplier, and producer level. One strategy companies have used to grow and position themselves throughout years of industry consolidation has been merger and acquisition (M&A) transactions.

During the eleven years from 1985 and 1995, the food industry was listed in the top 10 M&A most active industries ten times. It …

Demand Uncertainty And Investment In The Restaurant Industry, Jayoung Sohn

Open Access Dissertations

Since the collapse of the housing market, the prolonged economic uncertainty lingering in the U.S. economy has dampened restaurant performance. Economic uncertainty affects consumer sentiment and spending, turning into demand uncertainty. Nevertheless, the highly competitive nature of the restaurant industry does not allow much room for restaurants to actively control prices, leaving most food service firms exposed to demand uncertainty. To investigate the impact of demand uncertainty in the restaurant industry, this study focused on the implications of demand uncertainty for investment.

The first essay in chapter 3 examined the impact of demand uncertainty on investment and how the impact …

Indebtedness And Subjective Financial Wellbeing Of Households In Indonesia, Dwini Handayani

Economics and Finance in Indonesia

Indebtedness is an element to foresee household financial wellbeing. This vulnerability could be determined objectively and subjectively. Objective financial vulnerability is the objective ability to make ends meet that is analyzed using household income and characteristics. Measurement in subjective welbeing is determined by household perceptions in their ability to make ends meet. Household behavior with different perceptions will behave differently. Indebtedness is analyzed using the Indonesian Family Life Survey (IFLS) 5 with the Ordinary Least Square method. The inferential shows that both objective and subjective financial wellbeing influence household indebtedness. Kedalaman hutang merupakan elemen untuk mengetahui kesejahteraan finansial rumah tangga. …

Lumpy Investment, Lumpy Inventories, Ruediger Bachmann, Lin Ma

Research Collection School Of Economics

The link between the microenvironment (frictions and heterogeneity) and the macroeconomic dynamics of general equilibrium macromodels is influenced by exactly how general equilibrium closes the model. We make this observation concrete using the recent literature on how nonconvex capital adjustment costs influence aggregate investment dynamics. We introduce inventories into a two-sector lumpy investment model and find that nonconvex capital adjustment costs dampen and propagate investment impulse responses, more so than without inventories. With two means of transferring consumption into the future, fixed capital and inventories, the tight link between aggregate saving and fixed capital investment is broken.

State Based Financial Liberalization, Robert J. Kulzick

Open Access Dissertations

In the last 40 years, states around the globe have increased the role of markets in their financial systems. Using newly collected information on the educational backgrounds of Central Bankers, I demonstrate that the beliefs of state officials about the proper role of markets in the financial system influence the extent to which state's liberalize their financial systems. By tracing the liberalization experiences in both France and China through secondary sources, I show that bureaucrats within the state suggest reforms that conform to their neoliberal training when political leaders turn to them for solutions to what are perceived as technical …

Local Investment And The Relationship Between Prices And Earnings, Michael Hyman

Dissertations - ALL

This paper examines how local stock ownership influences the relationship between stock prices and future earnings. Prior finance literature has found that local investment leads to superior returns and has suggested that these returns are a result of an informational edge for those who invest locally. However, the literature has yet to examine which types of information local investors have access to and how that impacts the informativeness of stock prices. This paper shows that local investors have access to earnings-relevant information which results in stock prices which better lead future earnings for companies with larger local ownership bases. This …

2015 Statistical Bulletin: Domestic Production, Consumption And Prices, Central Bank Of Nigeria

CBN Statistical Bulletin

Statistics of Gross Domestic Product and Expenditure at current Purchaser's prices for the year 2015.

The Role Of Central Banks In Assisting Regional Economic Policy Making, Randall W. Eberts

Presentations

No abstract provided.

An Event Study Of Patent Verdicts And Judicial Leakage, Bryan Engelhardt, Zachary Fernandes

Economics Department Working Papers

To check for the impartiality of the United States judicial system, we investigate whether judicial decisions are leaked prior to their public release. Utilizing an event study methodology, we test for leaked information by analyzing the effect of patent infringement verdicts on the stock prices of the firms involved before and after the public release of the verdict. We find evidence that at least some of the decisions are leaked prior to their public release.

The Integrity Of Financial Analysts: Evidence From Asymmetric Responses To Earnings Surprises, Rui Lu, Wenxuan Hou, Henry Oppenheimer, Ting Zhang

Economics and Finance Faculty Publications

This paper investigates the integrity of financial analysts by examining their recommendation responses to large quarterly earnings surprises. Although there is no significant difference in recommendation changes between affiliated and unaffiliated analysts in response to positive earnings surprises, affiliated analysts are more reluctant than unaffiliated analysts to downgrade stock recommendations in response to negative earnings surprises. The evidence implies that conflicts of interest undermine the integrity of financial analysts. We further examine the effects of reputation concern and the Global Research Analyst Settlement as informal and formal mechanisms, on restoring analysts’ integrity. The results show that the positive bias in …

Mexico Consensus Economic Forecast, Volume 19, Number 3, Thomas M. Fullerton Jr., Adam G. Walke

Border Region Modeling Project

No abstract provided.

Institutional Ownership Stability And Real Earnings Management, Hamid Sakaki, Dave Jackson, Surendranath Jory

Economics and Finance Faculty Publications

We examine the relationship between institutional ownership stability and real earnings management. Our findings indicate that firms held by more stable institutional owners experience lower real activities manipulation by limiting overproduction. We further examine how the stability in the shareholdings of pressure-sensitive and insensitive institutional investors affect target firms’ use of real earnings management, respectively. Unlike pressure-sensitive institutional investors, the stability in the share ownership of pressure-insensitive institutional investors (i.e., investment advisors, pension funds and endowments) mitigates target firms’ use of real earnings management. Overall, our results are consistent with the view that institutional investors presence acts as a monitor …

Long-Run Equilibrium Shift And Short-Run Dynamics Of U.S. Home Price Tiers During The Housing Bubble, Damian S. Damianov, Diego Escobari

Economics and Finance Faculty Publications

We use vector error correction models to examine the interdependence between the high and the low price tiers during the latest housing market boom and bust. For 118 of the 364 US statistical areas analyzed, the tiered price indexes are bound by a long-run relationship. In general, low tier homes appreciated more than high tier homes in the past two decades. In contrast to previous periods of high volatility, however, low tier homes appreciated more during the boom and lost more value during the bust of the market. We find a shift in the long-run equilibrium during the bubble —the …

Reducing Asymmetric Information In Venture Capital Backed Ipos, Diego Escobari, Alejandro Serrano

Economics and Finance Faculty Publications

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to model asymmetric information and study the profitability of venture capital (VC) backed initial public offerings (IPOs). The mixtures approach endogenously separates IPOs into differentiated groups based on their returns’ determinants. The authors also analyze the factors that affect the probability that IPOs belong to a specific group.

Design/methodology/approach

The authors propose a new method to model asymmetric information between investors and firms in VC backed IPOs. The approach allows the authors to identify differentiated companies under incomplete information. The authors use a sample of 2,404 US firms from 1980 through 2012 to …

"Gravity Models" Applied To Projections For New Casinos: Techniques And Results, Will E. Cummings

International Conference on Gambling & Risk Taking

All developers of new casinos prepare, or have prepared for them, projections for the likely gaming-revenue performance of those casinos; in many cases; regulatory authorities in North America also require or commission independent third-party assessments of such performance. These projections are very frequently based on "gravity models," applying techniques pioneered by Reilly and Huff to analyze other retail activities in relation to the geographic distribution of competitors and potential customers. In this paper, I review roughly 80 examples of such applications from recent casino-licensing procedures in the U.S., and compare their results.