Economic Theory Commons^™

The Economics Of The U.S. Student Loan Market And The Case For The Education Development Financial Institution, Ian Akers

CMC Senior Theses

The United States student loan market is shaped by a variety of market failures–credit constraints, positive externalities, behavioral frictions including myopia, debt aversion, and misperception–that together justify government intervention in the market. Yet the design of federal intervention is just as important as its existence. This thesis details the economic theory underpinning the market for student loans, evaluates three historical federal student loan programs (the Perkins Loan Program, the Federal Family Education Loan Program, and the Federal Direct Loan Program) through the lens of that theory. The thesis then proposes a novel institutional model as a targeted response to the …

Trading Volume And Forecast Accuracy In Kalshi Prediction Markets, Nicholas Smole

CMC Senior Theses

This thesis examines the accuracy of Kalshi prediction markets and how different measures of trading volume shape their calibration and predictive power. Expanding upon previous models, use nonparametric calibration curves, pseudo-likelihood regressions, and Brier-score regressions on a large panel of Kalshi contracts to compare the effects of ex-post total volume and cumulative trading volume on market accuracy. Markets are typically well-calibrated near expiration; however, at longer horizons, low-volume markets exhibit substantially more miscalibration. Holding time to expiration fixed, greater cumulative volume is associated with higher accuracy. In comparison, higher ex-post total volume is associated with lower accuracy, highlighting the importance …

Forecasting The Unpredictable: The Bullwhip Effect In The Toy Industry, Mannat Sethi

CMC Senior Theses

This thesis investigates the bullwhip effect, the amplification of demand variability as it moves upstream in a supply chain, with a focus on the toy industry, and comparative analysis with the technology and consumer goods sectors. Using annual data from 1993 to 2024, the study analyzes production and retail growth for Mattel, Hasbro, Intel, and Procter & Gamble to assess how variance between consumer demand and firm output has changed over time. Bullwhip ratios are calculated as the variance of production growth divided by the variance of retail growth across two periods: 1993–2008 and 2009–2024.

The findings show that toy …

The Impact Of Student Achievement On Economic Growth: A Pisa-Based Analysis Of Gdp Per Capita, Emma Rose Nasr

Undergraduate Theses and Capstone Projects

This study investigates the extent to which international student achievement, measured through PISA assessments in mathematics, reading, and science, explains cross-country differences in economic development. Using an unbalanced panel data set combining PISA results from 2015, 2018, and 2022 with macroeconomic indicators from the World Development Indicators, I estimate multiple regression models, including pooled OLS, country and time fixed effects, and subsample analyses for developed and developing countries. Results from the pooled model indicate strong positive associations between PISA scores and GDP per capita, consistent with human capital theory. However, these relationships diminish under fixed effects specifications, suggesting that cross-country …

Board Attributes, Firm Performance, And The Moderating Role Of National Culture: A Meta-Analysis, Matthew Farrell, Chris H. Willis, Nathapon Siangchokyoo, Ryan L. Klinger, Jamil Kreugel, Hami Usta, Timiry R. Tian, Ying Thaviphoke, Samuel Wilson

Management Faculty Publications

Research Question/Issue

The impact of board structures on firm performance remains a contentious governance topic with competing theoretical paradigms and inconclusive empirical support. Scholars propose that national culture could reconcile contradictory evidence; yet, argumentation is fragmented and direct tests are rare. We meta‐analyzed 513 samples across 54 countries to examine relationships between board structures (i.e., board size, board independence, and CEO duality) and firm performance. We model national culture, using Hofstede's six cultural dimensions, as moderators to test whether these relationships align with agency or stewardship theory across different cultural settings.

Research findings/insights

Findings indicate a substantial moderating role of …

All Games Have Equilibria, M. Ali Khan, Arthur Paul Pedersen, Maxwell B. Stinchcombe

Publications and Research

Research on Nash equilibrium existence for infinite games has grown into a patchwork of technical preconditions and counterexamples. This paper presents a unified program in equilibrium theory by revising the predominant model of mixed strategies based on countable additivity. A game is specified by a nonempty set of players and, for each player, a nonempty action set and a bounded von Neumann-Morgenstern utility function. Every such game is shown to admit a Nash equilibrium in finitely additive mixed strategies. In addition, the equilibrium correspondence for any such game is shown to be nonempty, compact-valued, and upper hemicontinuous, and the same …

Review Of James K. Galbraith And Jing Chen, Entropy Economics: The Living Basis Of Value And Production (The University Of Chicago Press, 2025), Panos Tsoukalis

Emancipations: A Journal of Critical Social Analysis

No abstract provided.

Working Paper No. 104, An Gorta Mór: The ‘Great Hunger’ And Irish Immigrant Labor In 19th Century America, Amanda Bergeson

Working Papers in Economics

This inquiry seeks to establish that portions of the population of Ireland -- responding to what has been referred to in their Celtic language as An Gorta Mór, or in the English language as the ‘Great Hunger -- took to emigrating en masse and therewith contributed bigly to the expansion of America’s labor supply. Bolsterd by Irish immigrants, this expanding mid-nineteenth century labor force provided for an abundance of workers needed for a broadly based industrialization, that would also lead to large-scale urbanization as well as a host of changes in this nation’s social fabric. Of note is that …

Working Paper No. 105, John Locke And The American Experiment, Riley Sharps

Working Papers in Economics

This inquiry seeks to establish that ideas advanced by the Englishman John Locke, regarding private property, natural rights, as well as a social contract for relations between authorities and governed, influenced the American experiment at its founding. Locke’s novel understanding regarding private property greatly influenced leaders railing against British dominance. His ideas were picked up by founding figures such as John Adams, Thomas Jefferson, as well as James Madison, and Thomas Paine. Through their leadership, in particular, Locke’s ideas were carried forward and served as the inspiration behind key concepts appearing in this new nation’s founding documents. First appearing in …

Working Paper No. 106, The Rise And Fall Of Whaling In Early America, Miranda Rehaume

Working Papers in Economics

This inquiry seeks to establish that whaling activities -- and later a whaling industry -- would play important roles in the economic development of the colonies that would, with time, form into the United States of America. Drawing from historical accounts, this inquiry explores how whaling emerged as a cornerstone of the colonial, New England economy as well as the early American transatlantic trade. It shall be argued that the industry’s prosperity was driven by capital investments that included the development of specialized ships and equipment, driven by the colonists’ determination to make the whaling industry prosper. However, repeated disruptions …

Oxytocin Varies Across The Life Course In A Sex-Specific Way In A Human Subsistence Population, Abigail E. Colby, Dominik C. Jud, Valerie Baettig, Jordan S. Martin, Camila Scaff, Michael D. Gurven, Benjamin C. Trumble, Bret A. Beheim, Paul L. Hooper, Daniel K. Cummings, Hillard Kaplan, Jonathan Stieglitz, Arnulfo Cary Ista, Adrian V. Jaeggi

ESI Publications

Oxytocin, a hormone linked to reproduction and health, may mediate life-history trade-offs across the human life course. Yet, how oxytocin naturally varies with age remains poorly understood. Here, working with the Tsimane, forager-horticulturalists of lowland Bolivia, we collected the largest sample of oxytocin measurements to date (n = 1,242 samples, n = 405 individuals, age = 2 to 84 y, 51% female), and i) examined how oxytocin varies throughout the life course in females and males, and ii) investigated potential drivers of age- and sex-specific variation. Our sample provides rare insight into the relationship between oxytocin and age in a …

Genetically Modified Crops In Africa: Evidence On Adoption, Economic Benefits, Environmental Effects, And Constraints, Aloyce Hepelwa, Innocensia John

Tanzanian Economic Review

Africa faces deep food insecurity with over 300 million undernourished people driven by, low agricultural productivity, and climate shocks. To enhance food production and sustainable development, there is potential seen in genetically modified (GM) crops. To explore the potential of GM crops, this paper examines their production, adoption, economic and environmental impacts, adoption barriers, and policy implications in Africa and globally. This is done using a structured narrative review of peer-reviewed literature, reports, and policy documents (2014–2024) sourced from different databases complemented by stakeholder consultations. The findings show that GM has expanded considerably worldwide driven by high productivity, reduced pesticide …

Contests With Ambiguous Prizes, Cary Deck, Aidan Hathaway, Emma Kate Henry, Tigran Melkonyan, Samuel Redinger

ESI Working Papers

This paper examines behavior in contests where the prize value is ambiguous. We develop a theoretical model of bidding in a Tullock contest with an ambiguous prize where contestants account for the ambiguity attitude of their rival. Ambiguity affects optimal behavior via two countervailing channels - a direct effect arising from contestants’ ambiguity about the value of the prize and an indirect effect corresponding to the effect of ambiguity on the opponent’s behavior. Using a controlled laboratory experiment, we elicit individual risk and ambiguity attitudes and compare predicted and observed behavior in contests with an ambiguous prize, a risky prize …

The Bandwagon Model, Dean A. Williams

All Dissertations

Professional sports teams are in the entertainment market where owners of teams invest in players with the hopes of converting their talents into wins, and in turn, added revenues for their team. To gain an understanding of the incentives that shape these team talent investment decisions, prior economists have created theoretical models of professional sports leagues that give predictions regarding the cost to acquire talent, and the winning percentage of teams from different market sizes. These models are then used to show how team talent investment decisions change once professional sports leagues implement policies such as first-year player drafts, salary …

Strategic Interactions And Gender Cues: Evidence From Social Preference Games, Hernán Bejarano, Matias Busso, Juan Francisco Santos

ESI Working Papers

This paper studies trust, reciprocity, and bargaining using a large-scale online experiment conducted in six Latin American countries. Participants played trust and ultimatum games under randomly assigned conditions in which the gender of their counterpart was either disclosed or withheld. On average, disclosing counterpart gender does not yield statistically detectable effects in either game. However, statistically significant differences emerge by participants' own gender: on average men exhibit higher levels of trust, reciprocity, and generosity in bargaining than women. When disaggregating by participant-counterpart gender pairings, point estimates differ in sign across groups but are generally imprecisely estimated, and differences between interacting …

5th International Annual Conference Proceedings: A New Global Order, Yet Again, Centre For Business And Economic Research (Cber), School Of Economics And Social Sciences (Sess)

Conference Proceedings

The School of Economics and Social Sciences (SESS) and the Center for Business and Economics Research (CBER) at the Institute of Business Administration (IBA), Karachi, are pleased to announce the 5th International Annual Conference on "A New Global Order, Yet Again" In an era marked by geopolitical realignments, technological innovations, green transitions, climate change, and evolving trade dynamics, the global economic landscape is undergoing an unprecedented transformation. Developing economies today face multifaceted challenges: leveraging new opportunities in a decentralized global system while managing debt insolvency risk, uncertainties in international trade, climate change vulnerabilities, and rising socioeconomic inequality.

This conference seeks …

Investigating The Relationship Between Noun Classes And Plant Folk Taxonomy In Chasu Language Of Kilimanjaro Region In Tanzania, Peter Rabson Mziray

Journal of Humanities and Social Sciences

The current study investigates the relationship between noun classes and plant folk taxonomy in Chasu (G 22). The study focuses on two objectives: the first objective is to describe the plant folk taxonomy in Chasu and the second objective is to determine the relationship between noun classes and plant folk taxonomy in Chasu. Data were collected from rural villages in Same and Mwanga districts by using free listing, field interviews (jungle-walk-and-identify), and written texts containing Chasu plant names. The findings reveal that Chasu folk taxonomy reflects different ethnobotanical categories; including a unique beginner which is mmea/mimea ‘plant(s)’, and three life …

Dictators And Lying Dictators: An Experimental Investigation Of Preference Based-Group Biases In Chinese And American Interactions, Aaron S. Berman, Saika Cer Askin, Shapeng Jiang, David Porter, Jason Shachat

ESI Working Papers

This study examines group-conditional generosity and behavior using students from Chapman University in the United States and Wuhan University in China. Participants make allocation decisions in either a standard Dictator Game (DG) or a Lying Dictator Game (LDG), where a privately reported die roll determines the allocation. We vary whether participants interact with members of their own or the other university community. The LDG game, through the possibility of plausible deniability, allows for the moderation of image concerns that potentially influence DG behavior. We complement these tasks with individual decision benchmarks that exclude the Receiver to control for group differences …

Identifying Effective Corporate Financial Strategies For Overcoming Economic Shocks: A Literature Review, Selvi Permata Groda, Muazila Norisnita

Jurnal Administrasi Bisnis Terapan

The current era of heightened global economic uncertainty necessitates a thorough understanding of corporate financial strategies that enable firms to weather economic shocks. This literature review systematically identifies and analyzes financial strategies and practices that have demonstrated effectiveness in mitigating the negative impacts of events such as geopolitical instability. The methodology involves a comprehensive synthesis of existing scholarly articles focusing on corporate finance responses to global economic volatility. This study examines strategies related to funding, capital structure, cash management, and investment, evaluating their success in fostering financial resilience. Furthermore, the review integrates relevant financial theories, including the pecking order, trade-off, …

Robust Implementation In Rationalizable Strategies In General Mechanisms, Takashi Kunimoto, Rene Saran

Research Collection School Of Economics

A social choice function (SCF) is robustly implementable in rationalizable strate-gies if every rationalizable strategy profile on every type space results in outcomes consistent with it. First, we establish an equivalence between robust implementation in rationalizable strategies and “weak rationalizable implementation”. Second, using the equivalence result, we identify weak robust monotonicity as a necessary and al-most sufficient condition for robust implementation in rationalizable strategies. This exhibits a contrast with robust implementation in interim equilibria, i.e., every equilib-rium on every type space achieves outcomes consistent with the SCF. Bergemann and Morris (2011) show that strict robust monotonicity is a necessary and …