Economic Theory Commons^™

Equal Predictive Ability Tests Based On Panel Data With Applications To Oecd And Imf Forecasts, Oguzhan Akgun, Alain Pirotte, Giovanni Urga, Zhenlin Yang

Research Collection School Of Economics

We propose two types of equal predictive ability (EPA) tests with panels to compare the predictions made by two forecasters. The first type, S-statistics, focuses on the overall EPA hypothesis, which states that the EPA holds, on average, over all panel units and over time. The second type, C-statistics, focuses on the clustered EPA hypothesis where the EPA holds jointly for a fixed number of clusters of panel units. The asymptotic properties of the proposed tests are evaluated under weak and strong cross-sectional dependence. An extensive Monte Carlo simulation shows that the proposed tests have very good finite sample properties, …

High-Dimensional Iv Cointegration Estimation And Inference, Peter C. B. Phillips, Igor L. Kheifets

Research Collection School Of Economics

A semiparametric triangular systems approach shows how multicointegrating linkages occur naturally in an I(1) cointegrated regression model when the long run error variance matrix in the system is singular. Under such singularity, cointegrated I(1) systems embody a multicointegrated structure that makes them useful in many empirical settings. Earlier work shows that such systems may be analyzed and estimated without appealing to the associated I(2) system but with suboptimal convergence rates and potential asymptotic bias. The present paper develops a robust approach to estimation and inference of such systems using high dimensional IV methods that have appealing asymptotic properties like those …

Eco 11, Karen David Prof.

Open Educational Resources

This the syllabus for the ECO 11 Microeconomics course taught by Prof. David. It is a ZTC course using an OpenStax OER textbook.

Circular Economy: The 4rs Reduce-Reuse-Recycle-Recover, Kevin Hom

Publications and Research

This article summarizes the lecture presented at the Net Built 2024 conference. The lecture addresses the unsustainability of the current linear economy, characterized by the "take, make, dispose" model, in light of environmental challenges. The inefficiencies of this system lead to increased energy consumption, elevated CO2 emissions, and the exacerbation of climate change. It examines the current state of design and construction with respect to climate change and sustainable resource management. Additionally, the lecture introduces a methodology that integrates technologies and design philosophies capable of driving significant positive change. By advocating for a transformative approach to the expected lifetime of …

Displaced Worker Angst And Far Right Populism, Thomas E. Lambert

Faculty and Staff Scholarship

Background

Nothing causes more anguish and frustration than downward social mobility such as that experienced by less-educated workers and especially by displaced workers. Those who lose economic status lose more than income because they become so socially isolated that they are further frustrated through loneliness (Case and Deaton 2020). Hanna Arendt points out that lonely men are susceptible to authoritarian influence (1973, p. 475).

There is yet another aspect to the downward social mobility of low skilled men, namely that they are losing ground not only relative to social norms but also relative to the wages of low-skilled women. In …

Impact Of Forest Plantations On Energy Poverty: An Assessment Of Reforestation Efforts In Uganda, Matilda Kabutey-Ongor

Graduate Student Theses, Dissertations, & Professional Papers

This study investigates the socio-economic impacts of reforestation initiatives on energy poverty in three Ugandan districts—Hoima, Dokolo, and Nakasongola. Implemented by the Ugandan National Forest Authority, these efforts aim to mitigate the adverse effects of deforestation, exacerbated by a growing population and increased demand for forest products. We hypothesize that through sustainable afforestation, access to biomass and other renewable energy sources can be improved, thereby alleviating energy poverty. The study establishes a causal relationship between reforestation and reductions in energy poverty and general poverty using advanced econometric methods, such as Ordinary Least Squares regression, Weighting, and matching techniques including Propensity …

Pengaruh Digital Marketing Dan Brand Image Terhadap Keputusan Pembelian Konsumen E-Commerce Shopee Di Kota Cilegon, Dini Fajar Lestari, Jihan Nur Azizah

Jurnal Administrasi Bisnis Terapan

This research aims to determine the influence of digital marketing and brand image on purchasing decisions of Shopee e-commerce consumers in Cilegon City. This type of research is quantitative with a sample size of 100 respondents. The data collection technique used was a questionnaire. The data analysis method in this research is multiple linear regression analysis using SPSS software. The research results show that the digital marketing variable has a significant effect on purchasing decisions with a t-count value of 2.613 > t-table 1.985, and a significance value of 0.010 < 0.05. The brand image variable does not have a significant effect on purchasing decisions with a t-value of 0.794 < t-table 1.985, and a significance value of 0.429 > 0.05. Furthermore, digital marketing and brand image simultaneously influence purchasing decisions …

Implementasi Social Entrepreneur Dalam Umkm: Studi Kasus Program Csr “Umkm Kopi Tarzzan” Pt Geo Dipa Energi (Persero), Denindra Dwiputra Margono, Feriska Ajeng Anantri

Jurnal Administrasi Bisnis Terapan

Social problems lead to situations or conditions that disrupt the welfare and harmony of society, social problems have a difference between expectations and reality or as a gap between the existing situation and the situation that should be. One of the social problems that occur in Indonesia is poverty. Poverty is a state of deprivation such as food & drink, housing, and clothing. Poverty is related to low levels of education, health, and employment. One solution to the problem of poverty is to carry out CSR programs carried out by the Company. One of the companies that implement the program …

Analisis Pengaruh Kebijakan Fiskal Dan Moneter Terhadap Tingkat Pengembalian Saham Indonesia Tahun 2015-2019, Annisa Ramadhanti, Muthia Pramesti

Jurnal Administrasi Bisnis Terapan

This study aims to analyze the effect of fiscal and monetary policies projected by variables of state revenue income, government spending, inflation rates, and interest rates on the projected rate of return on stocks in Indonesia through returns or returns on the JCI. The data used is secondary data taken from various source in the form of monthly data from 2015 to 2019. The analytical method used in this study is multiple regression analysis to see the effect of all the independent variables on the dependent variable. The results of the study show that the variables of fiscal policy in …

Financial Contagion And Financial Lockdowns, Gabriele Camera, Alessandro Gioffré

ESI Working Papers

Extreme financial shocks often elicit extraordinary policy interventions that preclude financial activity on a large scale, for example as the 1933 U.S. “bank holiday.” We study these interventions using a random matching framework where the financial contagion process is explicit and the diffusion of the initial shock can be analytically characterized. The study suggests that there is scope for forced closures of individual firms or even economy-wide financial lockdowns only when firms are financially vulnerable and policy institutions are not well-functioning. Here, ordinary policy alone cannot prevent or sufficiently mitigate contagion, while complementing it with a lockdown or individual closures …

The Evaluation Of Successful Implementation Of Human Resource Information In Private Organization, Sancoko Sancoko, Armeyta Widya Oryza, Niko Grataridarga

Jurnal Administrasi Bisnis Terapan

This study intend to evaluate the use of the Human Resources Information System (HRIS) in private organization. User satisfaction is one of the conditions for the successful implementation of information systems. To evaluate this system information, the author uses the conceptual Delone and Mclean information system success model(ISSM). This study employs a quantitative methodology and a survey method. The research sample consists of employees in private organizations engaged in software engineering. To analyze, SPSS is employed by the author in two stages: first validity-reliability examination, second multiple regression tests. The result demonstrated that quality system has a significant affect on …

Pull Strategy Marketing Public Relations Pt Gramedia Asri Media Dalam Menarik Perhatian Publik Terhadap Produk, Safrina Nur Samsiah, Meutia Nada Zahrany, Fathiya Amajida, Susie Perbawasari, Renata Anisa

Jurnal Administrasi Bisnis Terapan

A company or organization requires the use of Marketing Public Relations to stimulate sales. Marketing Public Relations is designed to stimulate purchases and provide satisfaction to consumers through the communication of reliable product or service information and through impressions that relate the company and its products according to consumers' needs, wants, concerns, and interests. The purpose of this study is to obtain an overview of the implementation of the Marketing Public Relations strategy to attract public attention to product excellence. This research methodology uses a qualitative descriptiveresearch method. The data collection method used was interviews with the company's Sales Superintendent, …

Evolution Of Primate Vocal Repertoires: Vocal Systems As Embodied Capital For Mediating Within-Group Conflict, Eric Schniter, Mateo Peñaherrera-Aguirre

ESI Working Papers

Life history traits constrain investments in costly neural and somatic embodied capital, potentially shaping the evolution of primate vocal communication systems. This study integrates life history theory with the social complexity hypothesis to test a sequential pathway from longevity to social dynamics to vocal repertoire size, using updated vocal repertoire data for McComb & Semple’s (2005) set of 42 non-human primate species, alongside measures of group size and within-group conflict. We compiled data on vocal repertoire size, within-group conflict, group size, endocranial volume, and maximum longevity, analysing these via Phylogenetic Sequential Canonical Cascade Model and ancestral character reconstructions. …

Human-Robot Interactions: Insights From Experimental And Evolutionary Social Sciences, Eric Schniter

ESI Working Papers

"Experimental research in the realm of human-robot interactions has focused on the behavioral and psychological influences affecting human interaction and cooperation with robots. A robot is loosely defined as a device designed to perform agentic tasks autonomously or under remote control, often replicating or assisting human actions. Robots can vary widely in form, ranging from simple assembly line machines performing repetitive actions to advanced systems with no moving parts but with artificial intelligence (AI) capable of learning, problem-solving, communicating, and adapting to diverse environments and human interactions. Applications of experimental human-robot interaction research include the design, development, and implementation of …

Enlightenment Ideals And Belief In Progress In The Run-Up To The Industrial Revolution: A Textual Analysis, Ali Almelhem, Murat Iyigun, Austin Kennedy, Jared Rubin

ESI Working Papers

We trace the evolution of the language of science, religion, and political economy in the centuries leading to the British Industrial Revolution. Using textual analysis of 264,443 works printed in England between 1500 and 1900, we test whether British culture manifested a belief in progress associated with science and industry. Our analysis yields three main findings. First, there was a separation in the languages of science and religion beginning in the mid-18th century. Second, volumes using language at the nexus of science and political economy became more progress-oriented during the Enlightenment. Third, volumes using industrial language—especially those at the science-political …

Bitcoin And South African Stock Market Returns During Covid-19 Pandemic: A Test Of The Safe-Haven Hypothesis, Akaninyene U. Udom, Sopuru W. Nnamani

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This paper tests the safe-haven property of Bitcoin for South African stocks using Full and Diagonal BEKK-GARCH models. The study uses the Johannesburg stock exchange Top40 index, and bitcoin returns data before COVID-19 (August 2018 to December 2019) and during COVID-19 (January 2020 to June 2021). The results show that bitcoin cannot be considered as safe-haven for stocks in South Africa since it is weakly correlated with stock and had a high volatility during the Pandemic. Therefore, the safe-haven hypothesis of bitcoin on South African stocks is not true for the period under study. The policy implication is that bitcoin …

Modelling The Naira Exchange Rate Dependence Using Static And Time-Varying Copula, Kabir Katata

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This paper examines the dependence structure of different currencies versus the Nigerian Naira using constant and time-varying copula. Daily Naira/USD, Naira/Yuan, Naira/Pound, and Naira/Euro exchange rates from 23 December 2011 to 12 May 2020 were utilised. We fitted eight constant and time-varying copula families using the exchange rate standardised residuals. The study finds that the Naira exchange rate may be estimated with student t-copula, Symmetrized Joe-Clayton (SJC), or Rotated Gumbel copula models and Autoregressive (AR)– Glosten Jagannathan RunkleGeneralized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedastic (GJR-GARCH) (1,1) models with skewed t residuals for margins. The Naira exchange rate returns is timevarying, tail-dependent, and asymmetric. …

External Debt Pass-Through To Inflation In Nigeria, Emmanuel A. Asue, James V. Ikyaator

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This study examines external debt pass-through to inflation in Nigeria using annual data from 1981 to 2020 based on structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) model. The results reveal that an increase in external debt service leads to a significant depreciation of the exchange rate, which leads to a contemporaneous increase in inflation, while the direct response of inflation to external debt is statistically not significant. The impulse response confirms these results. The forecast error variance decomposition depicts that future values of official exchange rate depend on external debt, inflation and external debt service. The study recommends that the Nigerian government should …

Financial Inclusion And Poverty Reduction In Nigeria: The Role Of Microfinance Institutions, Okwudili W. Ugwuoke, Oliver E. Ogbonna, Aye-Agele Freeman

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This study investigates the role of microfinance institutions as a vehicle for driving financial inclusion and alleviating poverty in Nigeria using the EFinA 2018 household survey data. The probit model, propensity score matching, and average treatment effect methods are applied for the analyses. The study finds that financial inclusion driven by access to, and usage of products/services provided by microfinance institutions reduces poverty. The study recommends among others the need for increased access to microfinance products/services and an integrated poverty reduction policies that identifies microfinance institutions as a critical enabler

Inflation, Monetary Policy, And The Sacrifice Ratio, Leef H. Dierks

CBER Conference

Motivated by the 2022 uptick in headline inflation and the marked shift towards globally more restrictive monetary policies, this paper examines the sacrifice ratio, i.e., the percentage cost of actual production lost to every one percentage point decrease in (trend) inflation, for selected Southeast Asian economies. Results indicate that upon adopting a contractive monetary policy, GDP growth dropped by up to 0.5 per cent, confirming that monetary authorities’ disinflationary policies typically trigger declines in both output and employment. However, as even minor adjustments to the way of determining the sacrifice ratio lead to varying results, caution ought to be applied …