Econometrics Commons^™

Selective Mortality And Malnutrition In India, Pallavi Panda

School of Business

India presents itself as a paradox with low infant mortality and high malnutrition. This paper provides survival bias as an explanation of the paradox. Using pooled health surveys from 1993 to 2005 and a pseudo-panel selection model, this study finds that the change in Height-for-Age Z-Scores (HAZ scores) can be explained by mortality selection. Specifically, children with sample average characteristics that survive have 17.4% less HAZ scores than a child randomly drawn from the population indicating an overestimation of malnutrition in India. This is consistent with the hypothesis of weaker children surviving due to skilled delivery which pulls down the …

The Effect Of Outward Foreign Direct Investment On Exports In Japan During The Lost Decade, 1985-2005, Alexandros Ladas

Dissertations and Theses

This study will utilize an OLS analysis of the panel data coming from various databases such as the World Bank, Federal Reserve and etc. to determine if there exists a significant correlation between the exports of Japan and its foreign direct investment (FDI) in the period of 1985-2005 with nearby trading partners of which include the countries of ASEAN, China and South Korea. In addition, a selection of supplemental factors will be used to determine if they also possess any significance with exports. These factors include: the exchange rate of the Japanese yen with the currency of the trading partner …

Are Cds Auctions The Tail Wagging The Dog? An Empirical Study Of Corporate Bond Return Volatility At The Time Of Default, Jennifer Mace

CMC Senior Theses

Over the past decade, numerous engineered credit events and cases of market participants manipulating bond prices to influence Credit Default Swap (CDS) auction payouts have occurred. These cases have become increasingly common, and the CFTC has stated they may constitute market manipulation and undermine not only the CDS market but also the credit derivative and default markets. Although there is a plethora of news and media coverage on publicized cases, there is no previous empirical research on evidence of these practices. This paper is motivated by the desire to determine if there is indirect evidence of bond price manipulation around …

The Impacts Of Supra-Regional Multi-Resort Season Passes: A Hedonic Pricing Model Of Single-Day Lift Tickets For Us Ski Areas, Sijia Lai

CMC Senior Theses

Numerous media analyses claim that supra-regional multi-resort season passes (mega passes) are negatively impacting skiing, snowboarding, and winter-sport communities. In particular, media claims that ski areas on these season passes are charging higher single-day lift ticket prices to nudge people to buy their season pass products. To test this claim, I use a hedonic pricing model to estimate the impact of season passes on adult single-day lift ticket prices. By applying OLS regressions to a dataset of 302 US ski areas for the winter of 2018-19, I find that the ski areas on the leading season passes (Ikon and Epic …

First Movers In Marijuana: Tourism Boom Or Bust?, Henry Klyce Minervini

CMC Senior Theses

In 2014, Colorado and Washington legalized the cultivation, sale, and consumption of recreational marijuana for anyone over the age of 21. In doing so, the two states presented the first opportunities for marijuana-specific tourism in the United States. Direct benefits of legalization to these first movers, namely tax revenues generated through the sale of marijuana, have been quantified, but the indirect benefits in the tourism sector are as of yet unquantified. Although there is a large body of informal literature and popular media on marijuana tourism, academic study of the subject is scant. Working with a panel composed of 47 …

The Impact Of Regional Return On Education On The Self-Selection Of Mexican Immigrants, Warren Chen

CMC Senior Theses

This paper uses the 2010 Mexican Population and Housing Survey to examine the role of regional return to education on migrant selection. The study uses a standard linear regression model to predict the educational attainment of migrants and compares it to the educational attainment of non-migrants in each Mexican State. It finds evidence of negative selection, that less educated Mexican citizens are more likely to migrate to the United States. It also finds little evidence of the impact of regional return to education on migrant selection. The study offers potential explanations for the lack of impact and suggests avenues for …

Measurement Of Childhood Poverty In The United States And Its Enduring Influences, Zi Yang

The Journal of Sociology & Social Welfare

This paper measures childhood poverty in the United States and classifies it into three degrees based on different durations – persistent poverty, chronic transient poverty, and non-chronic transient poverty – using the Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID) data and actual poverty thresholds in the United States. Then I examine the enduring influences of different types of childhood poverty on future performance, including academic achievement, income, and criminal behavior, utilizing OLS and logistic models as well as Mincer wage functions. The regression results show that childhood poverty has a negative impact on schooling years and earnings. Living in poverty increases …

Accounting For Agent Heterogeneity In Market And Policy Analysis, Konstantinos Giannakas

Zea E-Books Collection

doi:10.13014/K2416V8V

This book presents a multi-market framework of market and policy analysis that explicitly accounts for the empirically relevant heterogeneity in consumer preferences and producer characteristics. The explicit consideration of consumer and producer heterogeneity represents a significant departure from the representative consumer and producer that have been at the center of most of the literature on market and policy analysis, and enables the distributional impacts of changes in market conditions and policies to be fully identified. The framework is used to analyze the system-wide market and welfare impacts of a number of changes in market conditions (like changes in consumer …

Estimating The Economic Value Of Rock Climbing In Smith Rock: An Individual Travel Cost Approach, Cassandra Koefod

All Master's Theses

In this study I estimate the economic value of rock climbing in Smith Rock State Park, Oregon. This area has seen an increase in recreational visits over the years, especially in rock climbing, necessitating economic valuation of the site in order to assist park managers in optimal management of this resource. Given regular conflicts over use of rock climbing areas by a variety of stakeholders (recreational users, habitats, cultural uses, etc.) this study will help in understanding how benefits of recreation is affected when policies limit access to such areas. I collect original survey data on travel to Smith Rock …

On Factor Models With Random Missing: Em Estimation, Inference, And Cross Validation, Liangjun Su, Ke Miao, Sainan Jin

Research Collection School Of Economics

We consider the estimation and inference in approximate factor models with random missing values. We show that with the low rank structure of the common component, we can estimate the factors and factor loadings consistently with the missing values replaced by zeros. We establish the asymptotic distributions of the resulting estimators and those based on the EM algorithm. We also propose a cross validation-based method to determine the number of factors in factor models with or without missing values and justify its consistency. Simulations demonstrate that our cross validation method is robust to fat tails in the error distribution and …

Econometric Estimates Of Earth's Transient Climate Sensitivity, Peter C. B. Phillips, Thomas Leirvik, Trude Storelvmo

Research Collection School Of Economics

How sensitive is Earth's climate to a given increase in atmospheric greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations? This long-standing question in climate science was recently analyzed by dynamic panel data methods using extensive spatio-temporal data of global surface temperatures, solar radiation, and GHG concentrations over the last half century to 2010 (Storelvmo et al, 2016). Those methods revealed that atmospheric aerosol effects masked approximately one-third of the continental warming due to increasing GHG concentrations over this period, thereby implying greater climate sensitivity to GHGs than previously thought. The present study provides regularity conditions and asymptotic theory justifying the use of time series …

Specification Tests For Temporal Heterogeneity In Spatial Panel Models With Fixed Effects, Yuhong Xu, Zhenlin Yang

Research Collection School Of Economics

We propose score type tests for testing the existence of temporal heterogeneity in slope and spatial parameters in spatial panel data (SPD) models, allowing for the presence of individual-specific and/or time-specific fixed effects (or in general intercept heterogeneity). The SPD model with spatial lag effect is treated in detail by first considering the model with individual-specific effects only, and then extending it to the model with both individual and time specific effects. Two types of tests (naive and robust) are proposed, and their asymptotic properties are presented. These tests are then fully extended to an SPD model with both spatial …

Nonstationary Panel Models With Latent Group Structures And Cross-Section Dependence, Wenxin Huang, Sainan Jin, Peter C. B. Phillips, Liangjun Su

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper proposes a novel Lasso-based approach to handle unobserved parameter heterogeneity and cross-section dependence in nonstationary panel models. In particular, a penalized principal component (PPC) method is developed to estimate group-specific long-run relationships and unobserved common factors and jointly to identify the unknown group membership. The PPC estimators are shown to be consistent under weakly dependent innovation processes. But they suffer an asymptotically non-negligible bias from correlations between the nonstationary regressors and unobserved stationary common factors and/or the equation errors. To remedy these shortcomings we provide three bias-correction procedures under which the estimators are re-centered about zero as both …

A Comparative Analysis On Output Gap - Inflation Relation: The New Keynesian Approach, Oladimeji Tomiwa Shodipe

Masters Theses

The thrust of this research paper is to examine the inflation information that is contained in the output gap using the New Keynesian Phillips Curve framework. As informed by the model, the study also sets to investigate inflation persistence and the influence of forward inertia on the current inflation. This paper follows the Gali and Monacelli (2005) of the small open-economy type of model. However, the current study differs by introducing external factors (trade and real exchange rate) not only on the hybrid model, also on the backward, forward and the hybrid restricted models for time-series data (1971-2017) of all …

The Relationship Between Commuting Habits And Mortality Rates In The United States, Samuel Earl Supplee-Niederman

Graduate Student Theses, Dissertations, & Professional Papers

In recent years, policy makers have invested in public transportation and infrastructure to promote walking and cycling to work. There is also a large body of economic research that has found mortality rates increase during economic expansions. While there has been a number of epidemiological studies that investigate the impact of commuting mode choice on individual health outcomes, there is a lack of research on the aggregate health effects of alternative transportation methods, such as biking, walking, or using public transportation. This paper uses a fixed-effect model to investigate the impact of an increase in total employment on mortality rates, …

Do You Want To Run A Regression? Nah, I Think I’Ll Dance One Instead: Physicalizing Econometrics, Rachel Lau

Senior Independent Study Theses

This project asked how can one make use of an econometric tool, specifically the regression model, as a source for choreography. Through integrating my research on dance choreography and econometrics, I created a dance piece that demonstrates the numerical relationships of a realized regression equation. The dance was separated into three sections, with each examining an econometric concept. Taking the primary question at hand one step further, this project also explored how this approach to choreography can be generalized so that almost any regression model can be a choreographic tool. Subsequently, a guideline was devised to provide other choreographers various …

A Full Characterization Of Best-Response Functions In The Lottery Colonel Blotto Game, Dan Kovenock, David Rojo Arjona

ESI Working Papers

We fully characterize best-response functions in Colonel Blotto games with lottery contest success functions.

Money Is More Than Memory, Maria Bigoni, Gabriele Camera, Marco Casari

ESI Working Papers

Impersonal exchange is the hallmark of an advanced society and money is one key institution that supports it. Economic theory regards money as a crude arrangement for monitoring counterparts’ past conduct. If so, then a public record of past actions—or memory—should supersede the function performed by money. This intriguing theoretical postulate remains untested. In an experiment, we show that the suggested functional equivalence between money and memory does not translate into an empirical equivalence: money removed the incentives to free ride, while memory did not. Monetary systems performed a richer set of functions than just revealing past behaviors.

Modeling Interactions Between Risk, Time, And Social Preferences, Mark Schneider

ESI Working Papers

Recent studies have observed systematic interactions between risk, time, and social preferences that constitute violations of `dimensional independence' and are not explained by the leading models of decision making. This note provides a simple approach to modeling such interaction effects while predicting new ones. In particular, we present a model of rational-behavioral preferences that takes the convex combination of `behavioral' System 1 preferences and `rational' System 2 preferences. The model provides a unifying approach to analyzing risk, time, and social preferences, and predicts how these preferences are correlated with reliance on System 1 or System 2 thinking.

A Dual System Model Of Risk And Time Preferences, Mark Schneider

ESI Working Papers

Discounted Expected Utility theory has been a workhorse in economic analysis for over half a century. However, it cannot explain empirical violations of 'dimensional independence' demonstrating that risk interacts with time preference and time interacts with risk preference, nor does it explain present bias or magnitude-dependence in risk and time preferences, or correlations between risk preference, time preference, and cognitive reflection. We demonstrate that these and other anomalies are explained by a dual system model of risk and time preferences that unless models of a rational economic agent, models based on prospect theory, and dual process models of decision making.