Reconsidering Rational Expectations And The Aggregation Of Diverse Information In Laboratory Security Markets,
2019
Emlyon Business School
Reconsidering Rational Expectations And The Aggregation Of Diverse Information In Laboratory Security Markets, Brice Corgnet, Cary Deck, Mark Desantis, Kyle Hampton, Erik O. Kimbrough
ESI Working Papers
The ability of markets to aggregate diverse information is a cornerstone of economics and finance, and empirical evidence for such aggregation has been demonstrated in previous laboratory experiments. Most notably Plott and Sunder (1988) find clear support for the rational expectations hypothesis in their Series B and C markets. However, recent studies have called into question the robustness of these findings. In this paper, we report the result of a direct replication of the key information aggregation results presented in Plott and Sunder. We do not find the same strong evidence in support of rational expectations that Plott and Sunder …
The Political Economy Of Foreign Aid And Growth: Theory And Evidence,
2019
University of Paris
The Political Economy Of Foreign Aid And Growth: Theory And Evidence, Sultan Mehmood, Avner Seror
ESI Working Papers
In this paper, we demonstrate that even when foreign aid is used to fund patronage, it may still have a positive - and significant - effect on economic growth in developing countries. First, we present a theory that formalizes the effect of aid on economic growth and patronage. Next, we provide evidence from Pakistan consistent with the predictions of the model that foreign aid increases economic growth, despite being used for patronage. The identification strategy we propose allows us to provide causal evidence for the predictions of the model.
Designing Call Auction Institutions To Eliminate Price Bubbles: Is English Dutch The Best?,
2019
Chapman University
Designing Call Auction Institutions To Eliminate Price Bubbles: Is English Dutch The Best?, Cary Deck, Maroš Servátka, Steven Tucker
ESI Working Papers
The bubble and burst pattern in asset market experiments is among the most replicable results in experimental economics. Numerous studies have searched for means to reduce this mispricing. Using controlled laboratory experiments, we compare mispricing in standard double auction markets to prices in two clock auctions. The double Dutch auction, shown to be more efficient than the double auction in commodity market experiments, does not eliminate bubbles. However, the English Dutch auction does yield prices reflective of underlying fundamentals and succeeds in taming bubbles even with inexperienced traders in the common declining fundamental value environment.
Salience And Social Choice,
2019
Chapman University
Salience And Social Choice, Mark Schneider, Jonathan W. Leland
ESI Working Papers
The axioms of expected utility and discounted utility theory have been tested extensively. In contrast, the axioms of social welfare functions have only been tested in a few questionnaire studies involving choices between hypothetical income distributions. In this note, we conduct a controlled experiment with 100 subjects in the role of social planners that tests five fundamental properties of social welfare functions to provide a basic test of cardinal social choice theory. We find that four properties of the standard social welfare functions tested are systematically violated, producing an Allais paradox, a common ratio effect, a framing effect, and a …
Rhode Island Current Conditions Index -- March 2019,
2019
University of Rhode Island
Rhode Island Current Conditions Index -- March 2019, Leonard Lardaro
The Rhode Island Current Conditions Index
No abstract provided.
Limit Theory For Moderate Deviations From Integrated Garch Processes,
2019
Singapore Management University
Limit Theory For Moderate Deviations From Integrated Garch Processes, Yubo Tao
Research Collection School Of Economics
This paper develops the limit theory of the GARCH(1,1) process that moderately deviates from IGARCH process towards both stationary and explosive regimes. The asymptotic theory extends Berkes et al. (2005) by allowing the parameters to have a slower rate of convergence. The results can be applied to unit root test for processes with mildly-integrated GARCH innovations (e.g. Boswijk (2001), Cavaliere and Taylor (2007, 2009)) and deriving limit theory of estimators for models involving mildly-integrated GARCH processes (e.g. Jensen and Rahbek (2004), Francq and Zakoïan (2012, 2013).
Forecasting Equity Index Volatility By Measuring The Linkage Among Component Stocks,
2019
Singapore Management University
Forecasting Equity Index Volatility By Measuring The Linkage Among Component Stocks, Yue Qiu, Tian Xie, Jun Yu, Qiankun Zhou
Research Collection School Of Economics
The linkage among the realized volatilities across component stocks are important when modeling and forecasting the relevant index volatility. In this paper, the linkage is measured via an extended Common Correlated Effects (CCE) approach under a panel heterogeneous autoregression model where unobserved common factors in errors are assumed. Consistency of the CCE estimator is obtained. The common factors are extracted using the principal component analysis. Empirical studies show that realized volatility models exploiting the linkage effects lead to significantly better out-of-sample forecast performance, for example, an up to 32% increase in the pseudo R2. We also conduct various forecasting exercises …
Actuarial Modeling And Analysis Of The Hong Kong Life Annuity Scheme,
2019
Singapore Management University
Actuarial Modeling And Analysis Of The Hong Kong Life Annuity Scheme, Koon Shing Kwong, Wai-Sum Chan, Johnny Siu-Hang Li
Research Collection School Of Economics
The Hong Kong Mortgage Corporation (HKMC) Limited, which was established in March 1997 and is wholly owned by the government of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, has a major mission to develop and provide different financial retirement instruments to Hong Kong residents to help address the income poverty of retirees. In June 2017, HKMC Annuity Limited, a wholly-owned subsidiary of the HKMC was incorporated to implement a new life annuity scheme which would be launched by mid-2018 to cater for the needs of cash-rich Hong Kong old age residents. The objective of the scheme is to provide an additional …
A Time To Print, A Time To Reform,
2019
Martin-Luther University of Halle-Wittenberg
A Time To Print, A Time To Reform, Lars Boerner, Jared Rubin, Battista Severgnini
ESI Working Papers
The public mechanical clock and movable type printing press were arguably the most important and complex technologies of the late medieval period. We posit that towns with clocks became upper-tail human capital hubs--clocks required extensive technical know-how and fine mechanical skill. This meant that clock towns were in position to adopt the printing press soon after its invention in 1450, as presses required a similar set of mechanical and technical skills to operate and repair. A two-stage analysis confirms this conjecture: we find that clock towns were 34-40 percentage points more likely to also have a press by 1500. The …
Given Today's New Wave Of Protectionsim, Is Antitrust Law The Last Hope For Preserving A Free Global Economy Or Another Nail In Free Trade's Coffin?,
2019
Loyola Marymount University and Loyola Law School
Given Today's New Wave Of Protectionsim, Is Antitrust Law The Last Hope For Preserving A Free Global Economy Or Another Nail In Free Trade's Coffin?, Allison Murray
Loyola of Los Angeles International and Comparative Law Review
No abstract provided.
Rhode Island Current Conditions Index -- February 2019,
2019
University of Rhode Island
Rhode Island Current Conditions Index -- February 2019, Leonard Lardaro
The Rhode Island Current Conditions Index
No abstract provided.
The Effect Of Per Capita Relief Spending On County Level Joblessness In The United States In 1937 & 1940,
2019
CUNY Hunter College
The Effect Of Per Capita Relief Spending On County Level Joblessness In The United States In 1937 & 1940, Mohammad S. Ahmed
Theses and Dissertations
This paper uses the 1937 and 1940 county level census data to estimate what effect did additional per capita relief spending have on joblessness in the United States in 1937 and 1940. To account for endogeneity in relief spending and its unequal/non-random distribution, an instrumental variables approach is used. The results show that additional per capita relief spending lowered joblessness in the United States in both years: 1937 and 1940.
Efficient Estimation Of Integrated Volatility Functionals Via Multi-Scale Jackknife,
2019
Singapore Management University
Efficient Estimation Of Integrated Volatility Functionals Via Multi-Scale Jackknife, Jia Li, Yunxiao Liu, Dacheng. Xiu
Research Collection School Of Economics
We propose semiparametrically efficient estimators for general integrated volatility functionals of multivariate semimartingale processes. A plug-in method that uses nonparametric estimates of spot volatilities is known to induce high-order biases that need to be corrected to obey a central limit theorem. Such bias terms arise from boundary effects, the diffusive and jump movements of stochastic volatility and the sampling error from the nonparametric spot volatility estimation. We propose a novel jackknife method for bias correction. The jackknife estimator is simply formed as a linear combination of a few uncorrected estimators associated with different local window sizes used in the estimation …
Shapes And Transitions Of The Interest Rate Term Structure,
2019
CUNY Graduate Center
Shapes And Transitions Of The Interest Rate Term Structure, Biwei Chen
Dissertations, Theses, and Capstone Projects
I analyze different shapes of Treasury yield curves in order to better reflect and predict the U.S. economy. Since the late 1980s, macroeconomists have found that the slope of the yield curve predicts economic activity such as inflation, output growth, and recessions, but they have not fully examined the links between various shapes of yield curve and the macroeconomy. To fill the gap, I classify yield curve shapes with the U.S. Treasury yield data, detect the shape patterns over the business cycles, and map these shapes onto corresponding inflation and production states. Although the downward-sloping yield curve reliably predicts U.S. …
Refusal Bias In Hiv Data From The Demographic And Health Surveys: Evaluation, Critique And Recommendations,
2019
James Cook University
Refusal Bias In Hiv Data From The Demographic And Health Surveys: Evaluation, Critique And Recommendations, Oyelola A. Adegboye, Tomoki Fujii, Denis H. Y. Leung
Research Collection School Of Economics
Non-response is a commonly encountered problem in many population-based surveys. Broadly speaking, non-response can be due to refusal or failure to contact the sample units. Although both types of non-response may lead to bias, there is much evidence to indicate that it is much easier to reduce the proportion of non-contacts than to do the same with refusals. In this article, we use data collected from a nationally-representative survey under the Demographic and Health Surveys program to study non-response due to refusals to HIV testing in Malawi. We review existing estimation methods and propose novel approaches to the estimation of …
Asymptotic Theory For Estimating Drift Parameters In The Fractional Vasicek Model,
2019
Zhejiang University
Asymptotic Theory For Estimating Drift Parameters In The Fractional Vasicek Model, Weilin Xiao, Jun Yu
Research Collection School Of Economics
This article develops an asymptotic theory for estimators of two parameters in the drift function in the fractional Vasicek model when a continuous record of observations is available. The fractional Vasicek model with long-range dependence is assumed to be driven by a fractional Brownian motion with the Hurst parameter greater than or equal to one half. It is shown that, when the Hurst parameter is known, the asymptotic theory for the persistence parameter depends critically on its sign, corresponding asymptotically to the stationary case, the explosive case, and the null recurrent case. In all three cases, the least squares method …
Empty Discarded Pack Data And The Prevalence Of Illicit Trade In Cigarettes In California,
2019
Pepperdine University
Empty Discarded Pack Data And The Prevalence Of Illicit Trade In Cigarettes In California, James Prieger
School of Public Policy Working Papers
Illicit trade in tobacco products (ITTP) creates many harms including reduced tax revenues; damages to the economic interests of legitimate actors; funding for organized-crime and terrorist groups; negative effects of participation in illicit markets, such as violence and incarceration; and reduced effectiveness of smoking-reduction policies, leading to increased damage to health. To study the prevalence of tax avoidance and ITTP, we analyze a large, novel set of data from empty discarded pack (EDP) studies. In EDP studies, teams of researchers collect all cigarette packs discarded in publicly accessible spaces of selected neighborhoods. Packs are examined for the absence of local …
Endogenous Market Formation And Monetary Trade: An Experiment,
2019
Chapman University
Endogenous Market Formation And Monetary Trade: An Experiment, Gabriele Camera, Dror Goldberg, Avi Weiss
ESI Working Papers
The theory of money assumes decentralized bilateral exchange and excludes centralized multilateral exchange. However, endogenizing the exchange process is critical for understanding the conditions that support the use of money. We develop a “travelling game” to study the emergence of decentralized and centralized exchange, theoretically and experimentally. Players located on separate islands can either trade locally, or pay a cost to trade elsewhere, so decentralized and centralized markets can both emerge in equilibrium. The former minimize trade costs through monetary exchange; the latter maximizes overall surplus through non-monetary exchange. Monetary trade emerges when coordination is problematic, while centralized trade emerges …
The Attack And Defense Games,
2019
Chapman University
The Attack And Defense Games, Roman Sheremeta
ESI Working Papers
The attack and defense game is a game in which an attacker (a group of attackers) has an incentive to revise the status quo and a defender (a group of defenders) wants to protect it. The asymmetry in objectives creates incompatible interests and results in a mixed-strategy Nash equilibrium. However, this equilibrium could be heavily impacted by behavioral considerations.
Improvements To Consumption Prediction: Machine Learning Methods And Novel Features,
2019
Souther Methodist University
Improvements To Consumption Prediction: Machine Learning Methods And Novel Features, Ian Kinskey, Glenn Oswald, Charles Mccann, Travis Finch, Anthony Tanaydin
SMU Data Science Review
Current models for predicting personal consumption expenditures (PCE) employ statistical techniques and rely upon traditional economic features. We compare vector autoregression and random forest regression models using traditional economic features as inputs to predict PCE. Additionally, we develop novel features derived from the earnings call transcripts of publicly traded U.S. companies using natural language processing (NLP) techniques. These new features reduce the mean square error (MSE) of the vector autoregression model by 7% and the random forest model by 23%. We find the random forest models outperformed the vector autoregression models, with a MSE reduction of 68%. We conclude the …
