Econometrics Commons^™

Disagreement In Market Index Options, Guilherme Salome, George Tauchen, Jia Li

Research Collection School Of Economics

We generate new evidence on disagreement among traders in the S&P 500 options market from high-frequency intraday price and volume data. Inference on disagreement is based on a model where investors observe public information but agree to disagree on its interpretation; disagreement among investors is captured by the volume–volatility elasticity. For options, there are two natural variables related to disagreement: moneyness and tenor, which we relate to disagreement about the distribution of the market index at different quantiles and times. The estimated volume–volatility elasticity equals unity for options near the money and close to expiration, which is consistent with the …

Endogenous Political Legitimacy: The Tudor Roots Of England’S Constitutional Governance, Avner Greif, Jared Rubin

ESI Working Papers

This paper highlights the importance of endogenous changes in the foundations of legitimacy for political regimes. It focuses on the central role of legitimacy changes in the rise of constitutional monarchy in England. It first defines legitimacy and briefly elaborates a theoretical framework enabling a historical study of this unobservable variable. It proceeds to substantiate that the low-legitimacy, post-Reformation Tudor monarchs of the 16th century promoted Parliament to enhance their legitimacy, thereby changing the legislative process from the “Crown and Parliament” to the “Crown in Parliament” that still prevails in England.

Essays On Culture, Institutions, And Development, Meng Liu

Dissertations and Theses Collection (Open Access)

This dissertation consists of three chapters that study culture, institutions, and economic development. In the first chapter, we study the impact of Confucianism on long-run development in northern Vietnam. Using the variation in Confucian literati across 217 historical districts between the Primitive Le and Nguyen dynasties (1426 CE - 1919 CE), we find that districts with greater exposure to Confucianism have experienced better economic outcomes over the past century. The result is robust to using the distance to exogenously located hermit Confucian as an instrument and accounting for a battery of confounders. We show that the positive effects of Confucianism …

Digital Economy, Institutional Quality And Economic Growth In Selected Countries, Olabode P. Olofin Mr.

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This study examines the role of digital economy and institutional quality on economic growth of Bangladesh, Ethiopia, Kenya, and Nigeria. The study adopts the feasible generalized least square method with annual panel data from 1985 to 2017. Results show that digital economy, human capital and knowledge worker, and democratic accountability promote economic growth, while corruption, socioeconomic conditions, and bureaucratic quality retard economic growth. Furthermore, interaction of digital economy with corruption promotes growth. However, the interaction of digital economy with institutional quality retards economic growth, which could be due to the deteriorating institutional quality and low level of economic digitalization in …

Food Price And Inflation Adjustments In Nigeria: Evidence From Threshold Cointegration, Usman A. Bello, Aliyu R. Sanusi

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This paper investigates two stages of transmission through which inflation stabilization policy affects headline inflation by estimating a threshold cointegration model. The paper finds that asymmetric monetary shocks passing-through food prices exerts inflationary pressure on consumer prices, and is characterized by deep asymmetric movement, large degree of stickiness in adjusting downward, while exhibiting upward momentum in correcting food price fall. In addition, asymmetries were found in consumer price adjustment as food price shock transmits substantial inflationary pressure to consumer prices, while disinflationary effect originating from a fall in food price is inconsequential. The coefficients of adjustment were found to be …

Dynamic Effect Of Exchange Rate Gap Shocks On Stock Market Deepening: Evidence From Nigeria, Kareem Abidemi Arikewuyo

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

The study examines the exchange rate gap shock–stock market deepening nexus in Nigeria using the structural VAR-X (SVAR-X) technique for the period 1986Q1 to 2018Q4. Findings reveal that exchange rate gap shock has a negative but statistically not significant effect on stock market deepening in Nigeria. It was also found that exchange rate passed–through interest rate from second to thirteen quarter, and further through financial openness whose effect, like exchange rate gap, was negative. This implies that exchange rate gap is significantly and negatively related to interest rate and financial openness in Nigeria. It is therefore recommended that the monetary …

Modelling The Impact Of Government Expenditure On Economic Growth In Nigeria: The Moderating Effects Of Oil And Non-Oil Revenue, Victor U. Ijirshar, Gaius M. Asombo, Florence D. Bundepuun, Ashifa Tersugh, Ayila Ngutsav

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This study examines the relationship between government expenditure and economic growth and assesses the moderating effects of oil revenue and non-oil revenue in Nigeria from 1981 to 2021. The study uncovered short-term asymmetry in the government expenditure-economic growth nexus while the long-term relationship was symmetric. The study found that government expenditure is a significant determinant of economic growth in Nigeria and that oil and non-oil revenue influences the nexus between government expenditure and economic growth in Nigeria positively. The study recommends efficient management of oil revenue, directing investments during high revenue periods and ensuring fiscal sustainability. Government should also establish …

Improving The Efficiency Of Exponential Ratio-Type Estimator For Population Median: A Calibration Weight Adjustment Approach, Mathew J. Iseh, Kufre J. Bassey

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This paper modifies the Bahl and Tuteja exponential ratio-type estimator for population median under simple random and stratified sampling schemes using calibration weight adjustment technique with supplementary information to vary the stratum weights. The bias and mean square error of the modified estimator were obtained up to the second-order approximation, which satisfies the necessary conditions for efficiency. The findings show that the new estimator surpasses existing estimators in efficiency gain. This suggests the appropriateness of calibration weight modification in boosting the efficiency of a population parameter estimator under stratified random sampling especially where the population parameter of the auxiliary variable …

Regression-Adjusted Estimation Of Quantile Treatment Effects Under Covariate-Adaptive Randomizations, Liang Jiang, Peter C. B. Phillips, Yubo Tao, Yichong Zhang

Research Collection School Of Economics

Datasets from field experiments with covariate-adaptive randomizations (CARs) usually contain extra covariates in addition to the strata indicators. We propose to incorporate these additional covariates via auxiliary regressions in the estimation and inference of unconditional quantile treatment effects (QTEs) under CARs. We establish the consistency and limit distribution of the regression-adjusted QTE estimator and prove that the use of multiplier bootstrap inference is non-conservative under CARs. The auxiliary regression may be estimated parametrically, nonparametrically, or via regularization when the data are high-dimensional. Even when the auxiliary regression is misspecified, the proposed bootstrap inferential procedure still achieves the nominal rejection probability …

The Impact Of The "Whistle-To-Whistle" Ban On The Frequency And Placement Of Gambling Advertising On Uk Television, Ellen Mcgrane, Elizabeth Goyder, Rob Pryce, Matt Field

International Conference on Gambling & Risk Taking

Abstract

Introduction:

There are currently no legally enforced restrictions on the broadcast time of gambling advertising on UK television. In August 2019, the Industry Group for Responsible Gambling (IGRG) introduced a voluntary policy which limited advertising around live sports, creating a “safe” window of 5 minutes either side of a match, known as the “Whistle-to-Whistle” period. This policy intended to protect young and vulnerable people from the widespread exposure to gambling adverts on television during pre-watershed (9pm) live sports games.

Methods:

This study will employ panel data statistical models to explore the change in pre-watershed gambling advertising around live sports, …

The Effect Of Television Advertising On Gambling Behaviour: A Quasi-Experimental Study During The 2022 Qatar Fifa World Cup, Ellen Mcgrane, Rob Pryce, Matt Field, Elizabeth Goyder, Luke Wilson

International Conference on Gambling & Risk Taking

Abstract

Introduction:

The pervasiveness of gambling advertising and its relationship with football have been identified as areas of concern in the UK. Following the liberalisation of advertising laws in the 2005 Gambling Act, there has been increasing recognition of its public health impact. To date, there is a lack of evidence of the impact of advertising on behaviour in “real-world” settings.

Methods:

This study employs a natural experiment measuring the impact of television gambling advertising on the frequency of impulsive football bets placed during the World Cup. Longitudinal betting data collected from a sample of men (aged 18-45) will be …

Reducing Recycling Contamination Using An Information Nudge, Mimi Rivette

LSU Master's Theses

Recycling contamination is a central challenge to recycling programs but is infrequently studied due to the difficulty of measuring contents and the inconvenience of sorting through recycling bags by hand. We conducted two simultaneous experiments to address both the issue of recycling contamination and the infrequency of its study at Louisiana State University in Fall 2021. We implemented two signage treatments, the first explicitly instructing passersby not to recycle a short list of common recycling contaminants, including Styrofoam, food wrappers, plastic bags, and face masks, and the second generally encouraging recycling but excluding specific instructions on what to recycle. To …

Charity Begins At Home: Investigating How Culture Shapes In-Group Bias In Altruistic Behavior, Angira Shukla

Master's Theses

The paper builds a structural model of altruistic transfers based on identity matches with another individual and estimates the weights that people place on the characteristic matches. We also take a comparative look at the role of culture in these transfers. The culture here is trying to contrast a traditional society versus a cosmopolitan one. I run an experiment in India to examine these differences. I find that in both the urban and rural samples individuals tend to give more to girls and donate largely on the basis of the need of the receiver. I also find that the rural …

Tempers Rising: The Effect Of Heat On Spite, Jake C. Cosgrove

Master's Theses

The relationship between heat and harmful outcomes is well documented, with research connecting various adverse economic outcomes to the climate. In the presence of increasing global warming and climate change, understanding why the climate leads to negative economic outcomes is essential for forming peaceful institutions of the future. We study how behavioral economic outcomes change in the presence of heat through a lab experiment involving 1,110 observations conducted in five different countries. This paper specifically focuses on the social preference outcome of spite. We find that increased time exposure to the treatment effect of heat is required to elicit an …

Impacts Of Rising Temperatures On Human Behavior With A Focus On Gender Differences, Stephanie Marie Emilia J. Hermoso

Master's Theses

Climate change is one of the biggest and most pressing issues the world is facing today. While its economic implications are substantial, it is also important to investigate the effects of climate change on human behavior. This paper examines the relationship of rising temperatures and its effect on an individual’s cooperative behavior – specifically egalitarianism, generosity, selfishness, and spite. This study will focus on the differences between how males and females react to the temperature. Research indicates that there are substantial behavioral differences between men and women. How do the economic decisions of men and women differ when interacted with …

Early Life Exposure To Enso And Adult Human Capital, Ashley J. Stewart

Master's Theses

Do El Niño Southern Oscillation conditions during a woman's early childhood lead to negative health outcomes in adulthood? This study poses as an extension of the 2021 paper by Anttila-Hughes et al. titled “ENSO impacts child undernutrition in the global tropics” and utilizes data from the same DHS, UDEL temperature and precipitation, and NOAA Center for Weather and Climate Prediction datasets. It proposes to investigate whether the undernutrition effects found in children persist into adulthood by measuring the effects on their mothers and the intergenerational effects on their offspring. Results indicate that a 1℃ increase in sea surface temperatures in …

Sweet And Timely Insurance: The Role Of Honey In Reducing Coffee Producer Food Insecurity Exposure In Mexico, Grant Xavier Storer

Master's Theses

Smallholder coffee producers face a combination of pre- and post-harvest risk factors that leaves them particularly vulnerable to food insecurity. A popular form of on-farm diversification is honey production through beekeeping, that has both nutritional and commercial value. This study investigates the role of honey production as means of food security management due to the heightened pollinating activity during the coffee flowering stage that follows the annual coffee harvest provides an additional non-contemporaneous source of income. Using primary data collected in coffee-producing regions of Chiapas, Mexico, I find that during the honey harvest months, which occurs during the early stage …

Charcoal, Droughts, And Deforestation: Evidence From Mozambique, Kaitlin N. Paull

Master's Theses

Mozambique is prone to harsh weather conditions due to its geographic location, and these conditions are expected to worsen in the face of ongoing climate change. Many of Mozambique’s farmers rely on rain-fed agriculture, meaning their livelihoods are highly vulnerable to worsening weather trends. Some farmers have diversified their incomes with charcoal production, making use of Mozambique’s abundant forest resources. This study measures how reliance on charcoal as an income diversification strategy affects forest loss, and found inconclusive effects of rainfall on deforestation. However, the study does find that a one-unit increase in hot degree days increases the probability of …

Feeling The Heat: Heterogeneous Treatment Effects Of Heat On Human Cooperation, Scott K. Klaus

Master's Theses

The goal of this paper is to examine how increased temperatures affect human behavior in terms of cooperation. Currently, there is an abundance of literature regarding increased aggression in humans as temperatures rise. However, there is ambiguity concerning whether a similar effect exists in altering levels of cooperation in human interactions. Additionally, people of different characteristics may be influenced by heat at varying levels. First, we run a baseline model of prosociality on different heat measurements, such as standard and wet-bulb temperatures. Included in this model are experimental specification variables, a “trigger”, and characteristics. The trigger is defined as losing …

Our Mothers Are Dying: How Economics Affect Maternal Mortality, Kendall Wheelock

Honors Theses

One of the primary goals from the UN 17 Sustainable Development Goals is to reduce maternal mortality on a global scale. It is well documented that economic success has a strong correlation with maternal mortality (Kirigia et al 2014, 1-3). There is ample research on how one’s health affects their ability to participate in society, furthermore protecting women within the sphere of medicine is a key part of advancing society. This thesis aims to give qualitative and quantitive backing to a deeper investigation of the correlation between economic success and maternal health.

To focus this research, the thesis focuses on …