Econometrics Commons^™

Driven By Change: The Impact Of Macroeconomic Shifts And Covid-19 On New Vehicle Sales, Jackson Aldrich

CMC Senior Theses

This paper examines the impact of macroeconomic factors and the COVID-19 pandemic on new vehicle sales. In order to address these two topics, a two-pronged approach was used with separate regression models. The macroeconomic variables include monthly supply of new homes, CPI for urban public transportation, unemployment rate, disposable personal income, inflation expectation, consumer sentiment, average gas prices, and total vehicle miles traveled which were regressed on total vehicle sales from 1978-2022. The regression results confirmed and supported current literature and highlighted the importance of the housing market and unemployment rate on new vehicle sales. The COVID-19 pandemic model variables …

Determinants And Effects Of Offset Usage Within The California Cap-And-Trade System – A Firm-Level Analysis, Adarsh Srinivasan

CMC Senior Theses

This thesis examines the determinants of the usage of carbon offsets within the California cap-and-trade program for greenhouse gas emissions. It also investigates the relationship between a firm’s investment in offsets and its financials for publicly traded companies. Entity-level data from 2013 to 2020 was used, which was sourced from the California Air Resources Board. Multiple regression analysis was used to investigate factors that correlated with offset usage and whether offset usage correlated with EBITDA. Dummy variables indicating geographic location and economic sector of each entity were used as controls. The analysis found that total covered emissions and privately owned …

Consumer Demand For Food Products, Price Surge, And U.S. Public Policy: An Empirical Economic Analysis, Clement Olivier Codjia

Theses and Dissertations--Agricultural Economics

This dissertation, by leveraging advanced econometric modeling approaches and exploiting suitable large datasets, investigates consumer food product demand in a setting of change in regulating policies as well as unforeseen price increases. Three chapters have mainly enabled the dissertation to achieve its research goals, which have been explicitly presented in Chapter 1 along with the background as well as the core problem the studies have elaborated on.

Given that soft drinks stand out as a major cause of obesity and overweight worldwide, whereas the United States is the country most concerned with this problem, experts have agreed that labels and …

Parents, Paths, And Paychecks: Examining Intergenerational Occupational Mobility And Career Choices, Swapnil Landge

Publications and Research

This paper examines the influence of fathers’ and mothers’ occupations on their children’s occupational outcomes, using a self-selection model to analyze intergenerational career mobility. By constructing and analyzing transition matrices, I estimate the extent of positive and negative self-selection for sons and daughters when they follow either their father’s or mother’s occupation. The results reveal distinct patterns for sons and daughters. Sons who follow their father’s occupation tend to avoid negative self-selection, particularly in higher-paying fields such as Professional Occupations and Technicians and Related Support Occupations, where negative self-selection is minimal. Conversely, sons following their mother’s occupation face higher rates …

Improving American Men's Quality Of Life By Economically Empowering American Women, Margot Rosenblatt

Scripps Senior Theses

In this paper, I explore the relationship between women’s economic empowerment and men’s quality of life in the United States. I created an index of women’s economic empowerment based on county-level data on labor force participation rates, rates of pay, teen birth rates, and families in which a woman is the primary income earner. I then created an index of men’s quality of life based on financial, physical, and mental health indicators. Adjusting for income, dominant industry type, age, population density, race variables, and environmental factors, I found a statistically significant positive correlation between women’s economic empowerment and men’s quality …

Esop Shocks: Employee Ownership And Employment Stability In Public Firms During The Covid-19 Crisis, Richard Taylor Lennox

Graduate Student Theses, Dissertations, & Professional Papers

Did employee ownership preserve jobs and firm-level skill retention during the COVID-19 pandemic? In the United States, employee ownership (EO) primarily takes the form of Employee Stock Ownership Plans (ESOPs). Using a longitudinal dataset composed of Department of Labor Form 5500 – CompuStat Fundamentals matched data from 2010-2022, this thesis examines the relationship between ESOPs and employment stability during the COVID pandemic for a large sample of public firms in the US. A fixed effects specification, controlling for a vector of firm characteristics and the national employment-to-population ratio, suggests that ESOPs had an employment-cushioning effect in public firms during the …

The Populist Wave: Unpacking The Global Drivers Of 21st Century Right-Wing Populist Support, Ellie Fallon

Honors Theses

This thesis investigates the underlying causes of the global rise in right-wing populism support in the twenty-first century. I will examine both the origins of these shifts in public opinion and their consequences for political systems and global interactions. My analyses will take two forms: (1) a cross-national analysis of the rise in right-wing populism in 34 of the 38 member states of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) to explore the demographic factors that exhibit a relationship with populist attitudes and (2) case studies of right-wing populism in the contemporary United States (with particular attention to former …

The Estimation Of Production Functions With Monetary Values, Jesus Felipe, John Mccombie, Aashish Mehta

Angelo King Institute for Economic and Business Studies (AKI)

For decades, the literature on the estimation of production functions has focused on the elimination of endogeneity biases through different estimation procedures to obtain the correct factor elasticities and other relevant parameters. Theoretical discussions of the problem correctly assume that production functions are relationships among physical inputs and output. However, in practice, they are most often estimated using deflated monetary values for output (value added or gross output) and capital. This introduces two additional problems—an errors-invariables problem, and a tendency to recover the factor shares in value added instead of their elasticities. The latter problem derives from the fact that …

Three Essays On Energy Related To State Policies And Low Carbon Transitions, Pinky Thomas

Graduate Theses, Dissertations, and Problem Reports (ETD)

This dissertation consists of three essays on energy-related state policies and energy transition. Each paragraph below refers to the three abstracts for the three chapters in this dissertation, respectively.

The first essay is entitled: “Impacts of State Tax and Resource Ownership Policies on Extraction: Evidence from U.S. Natural Gas Production”. The innovation of combined use of horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing technologies during the 2000s has allowed natural gas producers in the United States to extract natural gas and liquids from deep shale formations in a cost-efficient manner. This essay evaluates whether unconventional gas production responds to tax changes, and …

Optimal Nonparametric Range-Based Volatility Estimation, Tim Bollerslev, Jia Li, Qiyuan Li

Research Collection School Of Economics

We present a general framework for optimal nonparametric spot volatility estimation based on intraday range data, comprised of the first, highest, lowest, and last price over a given time-interval. We rely on a decision-theoretic approach together with a coupling-type argument to directly tailor the form of the nonparametric estimator to the specific volatility measure of interest and relevant loss function. The resulting new optimal estimators offer substantial efficiency gains compared to existing commonly used range-based procedures.

High-Dimensional Iv Cointegration Estimation And Inference, Peter C. B. Phillips, Igor L. Kheifets

Research Collection School Of Economics

A semiparametric triangular systems approach shows how multicointegrating linkages occur naturally in an I(1) cointegrated regression model when the long run error variance matrix in the system is singular. Under such singularity, cointegrated I(1) systems embody a multicointegrated structure that makes them useful in many empirical settings. Earlier work shows that such systems may be analyzed and estimated without appealing to the associated I(2) system but with suboptimal convergence rates and potential asymptotic bias. The present paper develops a robust approach to estimation and inference of such systems using high dimensional IV methods that have appealing asymptotic properties like those …

National Integration And Institution Building, Haiwen Zhou

Economics Faculty Publications

The mutual dependence between national integration and institution building is established in a formal model. It is shown that a decrease in transportation costs, but not necessarily an increase in population size, reduces the equilibrium number of states and the adoption of rule-based institutions. With endogenous transportation costs or endogenous population size, the unification process can feed on itself. The model is illustrated by the state of Qin's unification of China in 221 BC. During this process of national integration, transformations from relation-based governance to rule-based governance happened.

Essays On Public Finance And International Finance, Deepti Sikri

Electronic Theses & Dissertations (2024 - present)

The first chapter examines New York State's Fiscal Score Monitoring program to find the effect of two quality labels on school district outcomes: fiscal stress scores, reflecting the budget solvency, and environmental stress labels reflecting economic and demographic conditions. Using the NYS school district data from 2013-22, I employ the regression discontinuity design to find the effect of stress labels, in response to the political pressure on district finances, housing, and school outcomes. I find the effect of fiscal stress label is limited, leading to a decrease in the fund balance ratio and an increase in the tax rate. However, …

Euro-Denominated Credit Liquidity: Tracing Cyclical Phases In Global Finance, Mateusz Mariusz Mierzejewski

Journal of Banking and Financial Economics

In the past few years, set against the backdrop of pandemic mitigation efforts and the resultant inflationary spike, the macrofinancial landscape has undergone significant transformation. The tightening of monetary policy by global central banks in response to these phenomena has notably affected global financial liquidity, particularly within the realm of foreign currency lending. This article delves into the shifts in credit liquidity, centering on the Global Liquidity Index for euro-denominated loans across European Union nations over the last two decades. Through the application of the Fourier Transform, we analyse the cyclical patterns within the index and delineate the primary phases …

A Conditional Linear Combination Test With Many Weak Instruments, Dennis Lim, Wenjie Wang, Yichong Zhang

Research Collection School Of Economics

We consider a linear combination of jackknife Anderson-Rubin (AR) and orthogonalized Lagrangian multiplier (LM) tests for inference in IV regressions with many weak instruments and heteroskedasticity. We choose the weight in the linear combination based on a decision-theoretic rule that is adaptive to the identification strength. Under both weak and strong identifications, the proposed linear combination test controls asymptotic size and is admissible. Under strong identification, we further show that our linear combination test is the uniformly most powerful test against local alternatives among all tests that are constructed based on the jackknife AR and LM tests only and invariant …

On The Optimal Forecast With The Fractional Brownian Motion, Xiaohu Wang, Jun Yu, Chen Zhang

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper investigates the performance of different forecasting formulas with fractional Brownian motion based on discrete and finite samples. Existing literature presents two formulas for generating optimal forecasts when continuous records are available. One formula relies on a history over an infinite past, while the other is designed for a record limited to a finite past. In reality, only observations at discrete time points over a finite past are available. In this case, the forecasting formula, which has been widely used in the literature, is the one obtained by Gatheral et al. (2018) that truncates and discretizes the formula based …

Impact Of Forest Plantations On Energy Poverty: An Assessment Of Reforestation Efforts In Uganda, Matilda Kabutey-Ongor

Graduate Student Theses, Dissertations, & Professional Papers

This study investigates the socio-economic impacts of reforestation initiatives on energy poverty in three Ugandan districts—Hoima, Dokolo, and Nakasongola. Implemented by the Ugandan National Forest Authority, these efforts aim to mitigate the adverse effects of deforestation, exacerbated by a growing population and increased demand for forest products. We hypothesize that through sustainable afforestation, access to biomass and other renewable energy sources can be improved, thereby alleviating energy poverty. The study establishes a causal relationship between reforestation and reductions in energy poverty and general poverty using advanced econometric methods, such as Ordinary Least Squares regression, Weighting, and matching techniques including Propensity …

Equal Predictive Ability Tests Based On Panel Data With Applications To Oecd And Imf Forecasts, Oguzhan Akgun, Alain Pirotte, Giovanni Urga, Zhenlin Yang

Research Collection School Of Economics

We propose two types of equal predictive ability (EPA) tests with panels to compare the predictions made by two forecasters. The first type, S-statistics, focuses on the overall EPA hypothesis, which states that the EPA holds, on average, over all panel units and over time. The second type, C-statistics, focuses on the clustered EPA hypothesis where the EPA holds jointly for a fixed number of clusters of panel units. The asymptotic properties of the proposed tests are evaluated under weak and strong cross-sectional dependence. An extensive Monte Carlo simulation shows that the proposed tests have very good finite sample properties, …

Robust Testing For Explosive Behavior With Strongly Dependent Errors, Yui Lim Lui, Peter C. B. Phillips, Jun Yu

Research Collection School Of Economics

A heteroskedasticity-autocorrelation robust (HAR) test statistic is proposed to test for the presence of explosive roots in financial or real asset prices when the equation errors are strongly dependent. Limit theory for the test statistic is developed and extended to heteroskedastic models. The new test has stable size properties unlike conventional test statistics that typically lead to size distortion and inconsistency in the presence of strongly dependent equation errors. The new procedure can be used to consistently time-stamp the origination and termination of an explosive episode under similar conditions of long memory errors. Simulations are conducted to assess the finite …

Unraveling The Effects Of Transfer Pricing Documentation Regulation: Indonesia’ Evidence, Anggari Dwi Saputra

Jurnal Akuntansi dan Keuangan Indonesia

To counter tax avoidance using transfer mispricing practices, Indonesia introduced a transfer pricing documentation policy. This policy requires taxpayers to be transparent with their transfer pricing decisions. Treating the implementation of this policy as a shock to the taxpayers, this paper examines how the transfer pricing documentation policy affects a firm's tax avoidance behaviour by employing regression discontinuity design and difference-in-difference. Immediately after introducing the policy, a regression discontinuity analysis results indicate a 0.9 percentage point increase in tax/sales among taxpayers obligated to prepare transfer pricing documentation. A 0.3 to 0.7 percentage point increase in the tax/sales of the treatment …