Behavioral Economics Commons^™

Economic Analysis Of Flight Delay, Nathan D. Boettcher

Seaver College Research And Scholarly Achievement Symposium

Our project began as an investigation into the phenomenon of flight delay. We approached this problem with two goals in mind. First, we used mathematical statistics and econometric methods to develop a predictive model of flight delay. An improved forecasting process has obvious benefits for customers, and would additionally shed light on the factors which airports and airlines should seek to change in order to reduce flight delay. Our secondary goal was to complement this predictive research with a theoretical analysis of the incentive structure that consumers and producers face. We limited the scope of this model to delayed flights …

Analyzing Options Market Toxicity And The Black-Scholes Formula In The Presence Of Jump Diffusion As Simulated With Agent-Based Modeling, William D. Elliott

Undergraduate Economic Review

This paper presents new and significant research on the Black-Scholes Formula using the agent-based modeling software NetLogo. The software was used to simulate an options market subject to jump diffusion. Since the widely-used Black-Scholes Formula has at times proven unreliable, this research sought to understand circumstances that render the formula ineffective. It was hypothesized that markets would become difficult to trade in or “toxic” at low price volatility but high jump volatility. Further, it was predicted that kurtosis would alert the presence of toxic markets by accurately and consistently conveying whether jump diffusion was present.

Signed Peer Reviews As A Means To Improve Scholarly Publishing, Linwood H. Pendleton

Journal of Ocean and Coastal Economics

Peer review is a necessary process with a long history of complaints, including over-solicitation of a small number of reviewers, delays, inadequate numbers of reviewers, and a lack of incentives to provide strong reviews or avoid reviews with little helpful information for the author. In the era of Web-based distribution of research, through working paper or project reports, anonymous peer reviews are much less likely. The Journal of Ocean and Coastal Economics will use signed peer reviews and an open communication process among authors, reviewers, and editors. This approach, to be developed over time, should lead to stronger communication of …

Retirement Planning Among Middle-Aged And Older Hispanics, Luisa Blanco, Emma Aguila, Arturo Gongora, Beverly Weidmer, O. Kenrik Duru

School of Public Policy Working Papers

The goal of this study is to deepen the understanding of how middle age and older Hispanics plan for retirement, where we conducted four focus groups in the Los Angeles area with a total of 38 participants. Our study provides interesting findings, specifically for women since 84 percent of the participants were female. We find that that most participants, whether they were already retired or not, are not well prepared for retirement since they have been unable to save for retirement and have not made specific retirement plans, such as determining desired retirement age, estimating retirement budget, and collecting information …

Game, Set, And Match: Do Women And Men Perform Differently In Competitive Situations?, Michael Jetter, Jay K. Walker

Economics Faculty Publications

This paper analyzes potential gender differences in competitive environments using a sample of over 100,000 professional tennis matches. We focus on two phenomena of the labor and sports economics literature: the hot-hand and clutch-player effects. First, we find strong evidence for the hot-hand (cold-hand) effect. Every additional win in the most recent ten Tour matches raises the likelihood of prevailing in the current encounter by 3.1 (males) to 3.3 percentage points (females). Second, top male and female players are excelling in Grand Slam tournaments, arguably the most important events in tennis. For men, we also find evidence for top players …

Social Transformation, Group Reputation, And Reputation Matching, Huan Wang, Yi Zhang

Research Collection School Of Economics

Unlike in small communities where one can strategically interact with another according to the latter’s individual reputation, players in complex societies often have to interact with strangers whose individual reputations cannot be easily acquired. They often have to infer their counterparts’ characteristics from the latters’ group reputation to simplify decision making. We provide a game theoretical model of reputation matching concerning corruption during social transformation. We show that the regime change from acquaintance matching to anonymous matching tends to cause rampant corruption and the effectiveness of anti-corruption policies is non-monotonic with respect to the supervision efforts.

Fertility And Rural Electrification In Bangladesh, Tomoki Fujii, Abu S. Shonchoy

Research Collection School Of Economics

We use a panel dataset from Bangladesh to examine the relationship between fertility and the adoption of electricity with the latter instrumented by infrastructure development and the quality of service delivery. We find that the adoption of electricity reduces fertility, and this impact is more pronounced when the household already has two or more children. This observation can be explained by a simple household model of time use, in which adoption of electricity affects only the optimal number of children but not necessarily current fertility behavior if the optimal number has not yet been reached.

Love, Money And Old Age Support: Does Parental Matchmaking Matter?, Fali Huang, Ginger Zhe Jin, Lixin Colin Xu

Research Collection School Of Economics

Parental involvement in matchmaking may distort the choice of spouse because parents are willing to substitute love for market and household production, which are more sharable between parents and their children. This paper finds supportive evidence in a survey of Chinese couples. In both rural and urban areas, parent matchmaking is associated with less marital harmony between the couple, more submissive wives, and a stronger belief in old age support for the son. In contrast, its association with couple income differs by rural and urban regions, perhaps because of differences in earning opportunities and in the enforcement of the one-child …

The Economic Impact Of The University Of Arkansas, Katherine A. Deck, Mervin Jebaraj

Publications and Presentations

As the state’s flagship institution of higher education, the University of Arkansas delivers a significant economic impact to Arkansas. In 2014, an impact in excess of $1.2 billion came from the University via operations, construction, technology transfer, student expenditures, and visitor spending. The University of Arkansas has a substantial influence on the direction of the state’s economy by fulfilling its mission of developing human capital, growing ideas, and transmitting knowledge to the public.

Sustainable Farming Versus Ethanol: A Comparison Of Energy Use, Brandon John Weiland

Electronic Theses and Dissertations

The subsidization of corn-ethanol has proven to not live up to the original promises made when it was promoted as gasoline additive. With research pointing to ethanol as a source of increased greenhouse gases emissions and other pollution while merely changing energy consumption, not decreasing it, an alternative that achieves the original goals of is sought. I propose that sustainable farming practices have the ability to decrease the United States’ dependence on fossil fuels while decreasing emissions and pollution related to farming. By looking at the adoption of 3 year rotations, fertilizer banding, and zero tillage farming in Iowa, Illinois, …

How Are Brand Names Of Chinese Companies Perceived By Americans?, Marc Fetscherin, Adamantios Diamantopoilos, Allan K.K. Chan, Rachael Abbott

Faculty Publications

Purpose – The purpose of this paper was to conduct an experimental design of Americans’ preferences for the English version of Chinese brand names by drawing from prior research in psychology, linguistics and marketing. The impact of string length and semantic relevance to English on meaningfulness, memorability and likeability of brand names from Chinese companies was assessed. Design/methodology/approach – A 2 × 2 experimental design was used, whereby brand names are categorized by string length (short vs long) and semantic relevance to English (with vs without). Respondents’ perception of the Chinese language in terms of pronounceability, language familiarity and language …

Equity By The Numbers: Measuring Poverty, Inequality, And Injustice, Matthew D. Adler

Faculty Scholarship

Can we measure inequity? Can we arrive at a number or numbers capturing the extent to which a given society is equitable or inequitable? Sometimes such questions are answered with a “no”: equity is a qualitative, non-numerical consideration.

This Article offers a different perspective. The difficulty with equity measurement is not the impossibility of quantification, but the overabundance of possible metrics. There currently exist at least four families of equity-measurement frameworks, used by scholars and, to some extent, governments: inequality metrics (such as the Gini coefficient), poverty metrics, social-gradient metrics (such as the concentration index), and equity-regarding social welfare functions. …

Against Game Theory, Gale M. Lucas, Mathew D. Mccubbins, Mark Turner

Faculty Scholarship

People make choices. Often, the outcome depends on choices other people make. What mental steps do people go through when making such choices? Game theory, the most influential model of choice in economics and the social sciences, offers an answer, one based on games of strategy such as chess and checkers: the chooser considers the choices that others will make and makes a choice that will lead to a better outcome for the chooser, given all those choices by other people. It is universally established in the social sciences that classical game theory (even when heavily modified) is bad at …

Investigating The Endogeneity Of Risk Attitudes: Experimental Evidence Involving Cooperation And Competition, Erik Solli

Honors Theses

Individual decision making is at the core of microeconomics. Rarely, however, are decisions made in environments without some element of uncertainty or even in isolation. While people may differ in their inherent willingness to take on risk, their preferences could change when new information is learned or a new relationship is fostered. I designed an experiment in which participants were asked to make investment decisions involving different levels of risk. The participants completed task between these gambles which allowed me to introduce competitive and collaborative relationships. I was interested in: (1) understanding the factors that are important to explaining risk …

Taking Down The Totem: A Post-Keynesian Behavioral Critique Of Neoclassical Economics, Gideon Olshansky

Economics Honors Papers

This thesis critiques neoclassical economic theory. In each chapter, with the exception of the last two, I will examine a different neoclassical theory and reveal its lack of realism, and how said theory cannot apply to the real economy. With each critique, I show how neoclassical economic theories are built vindicate free market capitalism. Therefore, neoclassical theory cannot actually understand the real economy, and anticipate its movements. The lack of realism in their theories, and staunch commitment to free markets, suggests that neoclassical theories should not be at the forefront of economic policy decisions and education programs. In the last …

Lies, Probabilities, And Threats In Ultimatum Games, Mark Ferreira

Economics Honors Papers

Many papers have used the ultimatum game as a means to test bargaining behavior. A subset of experiments has examined the use of cheap talk and asymmetric in bargaining scenarios. Yet, this earlier work leaves out many of the complicated factors that occur in bargaining in the real world. No research has looked at the interaction of probabilities and threats in ultimatum games. The experiment described here makes two novel modifications to the ultimatum game: First: participant’s have the ability to send threats. Second: the game uses probabilities to determine whether or not the endowment size becomes revealed. The data …

Are Subjects Making Financial Decisions In Lab Auctions Or Are They Just Gambling?, Cary Deck, Jungmin Lee, Javier Reyes

Economics Faculty Articles and Research

Optimal bidding strategies in first-price and Dutch auctions are theoretically isomorphic but depend on bidder risk attitudes. However, laboratory experiments consistently find different behaviour between auction formats. This article explores whether the notion in psychology that financial and gambling risks are viewed differently can explain the discrepancy. Ultimately, the evidence does not support this hypothesis, but a bidder's propensity to gamble is associated with how much risk he takes in both auctions whereas his propensity to take financial risks is not. The results suggest that subjects may view themselves as gambling in laboratory auctions rather than making financial decisions.

Mandatory Process, Matthew B. Lawrence

Faculty Articles

This Article suggests that people tend to undervalue their procedural rights—their proverbial “day in court”—until they are actually involved in a dispute. The Article argues that the inherent, outcome-independent value of participating in a dispute resolution process comes largely from its power to soothe a person’s grievance— their perception of unfairness and accompanying negative emotional reaction—win or lose. But a tendency to assume unchanging emotional states, known in behavioral economics as projection bias, can prevent people from anticipating that they might become aggrieved and from appreciating the grievance-soothing power of process. When this happens, people will waive their procedural rights …

The Effects Of Personality On Intertemporal Choice, Nicholas Hogan

Honors College Theses

This dissertation attempts to unveil new information concerning intertemporal choice, by trying to find a correlation between personality and the temporal choices that people make. The methodology for doing so is as follows: a survey was distributed and responses were regressed using Ordinary Least Squares (OLS). Given that there were two questions (one formatted using a calendar date and the other using a word format) about intertemporal choice (subjects were asked to choose a certain payoff corresponding to a specific point in time), there were two models constructed. Each model had the following variable structure: the dependent variable was the …

Why Healthy Behavior Is The Hard Choice, Lawrence O. Gostin

Georgetown Law Faculty Publications and Other Works

Our society is structured to encourage unhealthy diets and physically inactive lifestyles, which are key risk factors for chronic diseases including diabetes, heart diseases, and cancers. We are bombarded with advertisements for hyperprocessed foods laden with saturated fat, salt, sugar, and refined carbohydrates, “low-fat” foods often contain high amounts of sugar and salt, and parks and recreation spaces are often inaccessible or unsafe.

Four simple ideas - taxes on unhealthy products, product reformulation, improving the informational environment, and increasing healthy food accessibility - could make healthy behaviors the “default” choice for most consumers. First, taxes on unhealthy products, such as …