Statistical Methodology Commons^™

Modelling The Naira Exchange Rate Dependence Using Static And Time-Varying Copula, Kabir Katata

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This paper examines the dependence structure of different currencies versus the Nigerian Naira using constant and time-varying copula. Daily Naira/USD, Naira/Yuan, Naira/Pound, and Naira/Euro exchange rates from 23 December 2011 to 12 May 2020 were utilised. We fitted eight constant and time-varying copula families using the exchange rate standardised residuals. The study finds that the Naira exchange rate may be estimated with student t-copula, Symmetrized Joe-Clayton (SJC), or Rotated Gumbel copula models and Autoregressive (AR)– Glosten Jagannathan RunkleGeneralized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedastic (GJR-GARCH) (1,1) models with skewed t residuals for margins. The Naira exchange rate returns is timevarying, tail-dependent, and asymmetric. …

Bayesian Strategies For Propensity Score Estimation In Causal Inference., Uthpala I. Wanigasekara

Electronic Theses and Dissertations

Causal inference is a method used in various fields to draw causal conclusions based on data. It involves using assumptions, study designs, and estimation strategies to minimize the impact of confounding variables. Propensity scores are used to estimate outcome effects, through matching methods, stratification, weighting methods, and the Covariate Balancing Propensity Score method. However, they can be sensitive to estimation techniques and can lead to unstable findings. Researchers have proposed integrating weighing with regression adjustment in parametric models to improve causal inference validity. The first project focuses on Bayesian joint and two-stage methods for propensity score analysis. Propensity score modeling …

The Private Pilot Check Ride: Applying The Spacing Effect Theory To Predict Time To Proficiency For The Practical Test, Michael Scott Harwin

Theses and Dissertations

This study examined the relationship between a set of targeted factors and the total flight time students needed to become ready to take the private pilot check ride. The study was grounded in Ebbinghaus’s (1885/1913/2013) forgetting curve theory and spacing effect, and Ausubel’s (1963) theory of meaningful learning. The research factors included (a) training time to proficiency, which represented the number of training days needed to become check-ride ready; (b) flight training program (Part 61 vs. Part 141); (c) organization offering the training program (2- or 4-year college/university vs. FBO); (d) scheduling policy (mandated vs. student-driven); and demographical variables, which …

Bayesian Learning Of Spatiotemporal Source Distribution For Beached Microplastic In The Gulf Of Mexico, David Pojunas

Graduate Theses and Dissertations

Over the last several decades, plastic waste has gradually accumulated while slowly degrading in terrestrial and oceanic environments. Recently, there has been an increased effort to identify the possible sources of plastic to understand how they affect vulnerable beaches. This issue is of particular concern in the Gulf of Mexico due to the presence of oil, natural gas, and plastic production. In this thesis, we expand upon existing Bayesian plastic attribution models and develop a rigorous statistical framework to map observed beached microplastics to their sources. Within this framework, we combine Lagrangian backtracking simulations of floating particles using nurdle beaching …

Exploration And Statistical Modeling Of Profit, Caleb Gibson

Undergraduate Honors Theses

For any company involved in sales, maximization of profit is the driving force that guides all decision-making. Many factors can influence how profitable a company can be, including external factors like changes in inflation or consumer demand or internal factors like pricing and product cost. Understanding specific trends in one's own internal data, a company can readily identify problem areas or potential growth opportunities to help increase profitability.

In this discussion, we use an extensive data set to examine how a company might analyze their own data to identify potential changes the company might investigate to drive better performance. Based …

A Bayesian Network-Based Methodology For Improved Bridge Load Rating And Asset Management, Jeffery Mark Roberts

Dissertations and Theses

From the day a new structure is made available for use, to the day that the structure is no longer able to fulfill an intended purpose, structural safety is a vital interest. Managing a portfolio of structures can be a difficult undertaking for an asset manager, particularly if different types of structures are being maintained. The goal is to manage assets in the most efficient manner which can be influenced by, at a minimum, safety and financial concerns.

A potential tool for an asset manager or owner is the use of Bayesian Networks (BNs). When a BN is used to …

Statistical And Machine Learning Approaches To Describe Factors Affecting Preweaning Mortality Of Piglets, Md Towfiqur Rahman, Tami M. Brown-Brandl, Gary A. Rohrer, Sudhendu R. Sharma, Vamsi Manthena, Yeyin Shi

Department of Agricultural and Biological Systems Engineering: Faculty Publications

High preweaning mortality (PWM) rates for piglets are a significant concern for the worldwide pork industries, causing economic loss and well-being issues. This study focused on identifying the factors affecting PWM, overlays, and predicting PWM using historical production data with statistical and machine learning models. Data were collected from 1,982 litters from the United States Meat Animal Research Center, Nebraska, over the years 2016 to 2021. Sows were housed in a farrowing building with three rooms, each with 20 farrowing crates, and taken care of by well-trained animal caretakers. A generalized linear model was used to analyze the various sow, …

A Classical Fall Statistics Problem, Timothy Meyer

Cornhusker Economics

An evaluation of traditional baseball measures and suggestions for alternatives, centering on statistics related to the offensive quality of a player.

Feasibility Study Of Pavement Rutting Evaluation Method Based On Driving Vibration, Zhang Jinxi, Wang Peirong, Cao Dandan, Ceng Jingxiang

Journal of China & Foreign Highway

To explore the intelligent detection and monitoring methods of pavement performance, this paper utilized the self-developed driving data collection app to collect vibration acceleration and other data of the pavement during driving, and carried out the feasibility study of evaluating the pavement rutting by driving vibration. Firstly, the collected vibration acceleration data was processed for noise reduction, and the driving vibration characteristics in different working conditions were analyzed. Secondly, seven time domain indicators with high correlation between vibration acceleration and the rutting were extracted as the initial set of indicators, and the seven indicators were downscaled into two independent principal …

Influence Of Shear Deformation On Manufacturing And Erection Alignment, Wang Jin, Chen Changsong

Journal of China & Foreign Highway

This paper aims to study the effect of shear deformation on the manufacturing and erection alignment of main girders of free cantilever erection steel box girder bridges and better design the state of bridge formation state. To this end, it calculated the shear stress coefficient of uniformity of the steel box girder’s cross-section by adopting the finite element method and conducted comparison with the solid model of the plate and shell units of the steel box girder. The results show that the shear stress coefficient of uniformity calculated by finite element software is accurate and reliable. Additionally, simple modeling indicates …

Study On Temperature Gradient Of Long-Span Single-Box Double-Chamber Box Girder Bridge, Yang Wenbin

Journal of China & Foreign Highway

In view of the complex temperature effect of the single-box double-chamber box girders, this paper aimed to carry out the temperature gradient study of box girder cross-sections by employing a short-tower single-box double-chamber cable-stayed bridge with span arrangement of (120+120) m. 21 temperature sensors were installed at the cross-sections of large-mileage closure sections, with the set collection frequency of one time per hour and a wireless collection module for data collection. Meanwhile, temperature observation was carried out for a period of 171 d to obtain the distribution law of the temperature gradient in cross-sections of the closure sections. The study …

Experimental Study On The Influence Of Cantilevered Sidewalk On The Wind Resistance Of A Cable-Stayed Bridge With Pk Girder, Yu Zhenghua

Journal of China & Foreign Highway

Bilateral box steel main girders are widely employed in large-span double-plane cable-stayed bridges. These bridges are characterized by low frequency, small damping, and relatively light mass, and their wind resistance stability is a key problem to be solved in bridge construction. By taking the Pingnan super major cable-stayed bridge with a main span of 636 m on Pingrong Expressway under construction as the research project, this paper built a finite element spatial model of the bridge and analyzed the structural modal characteristics. Meanwhile, it carried out the main girder segmental model of elastically suspended vortex vibration and chatter vibration wind …

Orthogonal Analysis Of Influential Factors In Construction Of Portal Pier Foundations Adjacent To Existing Railway, Li Minghua, Feng Jiahui, Han Wenjing

Journal of China & Foreign Highway

To study the influencing factors of portal pier foundation construction adjacent to existing railway, this paper adopted the orthogonal test method based on numerical simulation to study the influence of five factors on the existing railway, including the length of bored piles, construction sequence of bored piles, excavation depth of foundation pits of the bearing platform, length of steel sheet piles, and number of steel sheet piles. The results show that during the bored pile construction stage, the most important factor is the construction sequence of bored piles. Meanwhile, during the stage of foundation pit excavation and substructure construction, the …

Optimization Design Of Highway Tunnel Inner Contour Based On Simu Lated Annealing Algorithm, Zhang Qingwei

Journal of China & Foreign Highway

To optimize the inner contour design of road tunnels, this paper regarded the inner contour design of a road tunnel as an optimization problem in certain conditions. By taking the area optimization as the objective, it introduced the simulated annealing algorithm to solve the problem based on the calculation model building of the inner contour of a single-centered circle with an inverted arch, with a program written for verification and analysis. The results show that the optimization design scheme is feasible and can provide an idea way for the inner contour design of road tunnels.

Comparison Of Specifications For Highway Safety Audi Ts Of China ， The United States ， And Australia, Li Jie, Han Huanhuan, Li Jia, Ren Yabo, Gong Ruiming

Journal of China & Foreign Highway

Traffic safety is one of the three major problems of transportation. To build a transportation power, China has proposed the call of “facilitating the transportation development from pursuing the speed and scale to paying more attention to quality and safety”, and improving the audit specifications of road safety is an important basis for increasing the transportation safety level. This paper firstly introduced the background where China, the United States and Australia issued the audit specifications of road safety, and then compared the differences between the three countries in the aspects of the audit process for road safety, audit indexes and …

Research On A Hub Interchange Scheme Under Special Terrain Conditions, Wang Jie, He Yajun

Journal of China & Foreign Highway

By combining the study process and conclusion of the interchange scheme of the Lugao hub as an important node of G4216 Jinyang-Ningnan Expressway Project, this paper discussed the ideas and methods of selecting the hub interchange shape under complex terrains and high functional requirements. It aimed to provide certain references for the design of hub interchange schemes in special Y-shaped terrain conditions. The Lugao hub interchange location is deeply cut by the Jinsha River and its branches, with narrow valley bottoms, extremely steep cross slopes, and harsh engineering construction conditions. Meanwhile, in the limited space, the specific requirements of the …

Structure Design Of Platform For Construction Of Inclined Pile Foundation On The Water Under Complex Hydrogeology Conditions, Cheng Tao, Fu Su, Deng Songtao

Journal of China & Foreign Highway

Based on the design of the pile foundation construction platform for the Yushan water intake in Daishan Port, this paper introduced the adoption of the support system combining the steel pile casing and steel pipe piles in complex hydrogeological conditions. Most of the pile foundations feature small embedded length and are inclined piles with weak lateral rigidity, and they cannot resist the horizontal loads such as wind-wave-current during the typhoon period. Therefore, this paper introduced several measures taken to improve the overall lateral stability of the platform. The first measure is to improve the boundary conditions of pile foundations by …

Study On Stability Analysis And Treatment Of A Expressway Landslide, Huang Hongchao

Journal of China & Foreign Highway

In highway construction of mountainous areas, landslides are easily triggered due to the complex geological conditions, thereby causing serious economic loss and even casualties. Therefore, the study of landslide treatment schemes has caught increasingly more attention from scholars. By taking the giant landslide treatment on a highway of southeastern Yunnan as an example, this paper analyzed the process and cause of giant landslide formation, and then conducted inverse calculations to determine the stability analysis parameters of landslides via combining the topography and geology and slope state before and after slope excavation. Finally, according to the calculation results of the residual …

Discussion On Treatment Scheme Of Soft Foundation Based On Cooperative Deformation Of Roadbed And Frame Structure, Liu Jizhong, Chen Kai, Yang Fengyu

Journal of China & Foreign Highway

In view of insufficient consideration of cooperative roadbed and structure deformation, by taking the soft foundation with frame structures in the fill roadbed as the research object, this paper adopted Midas GTS NX finite element analysis software to simulate the pavement settlement and plastic zone distribution of the soft foundation treated by cast-in-place piles. Considering that the stiffness difference between the roadbed and the frame structure can easily result in pavement cracking, a variable stiffness composite foundation treatment optimization scheme was proposed. This scheme coordinated the cooperative settlement and deformation of the roadbed and frame structure, and prevented the development …

Research On Effect Of Structural System On Static And Dyn Amic Stiffness Of Large-Span And Narrow Suspension Bridges, Song Songke, He Jiayong, Chen Qian, Du Taoming, Li Yongle, Yu Chuanjin

Journal of China & Foreign Highway

Large-span and narrow suspension bridges featuring flexible structures and low overall stiffness have prominent wind resistance problems. Structural static and dynamic stiffness is the basic parameter for wind resistance of long-span bridges. By taking a large-span and narrow suspension bridge as the research project, this paper comparatively analyzed the effects of parameters such as stiffened girder stiffness, main cable span ratio, main cable spacing, and lifting point width on the static and dynamic stiffness based on the theory of spatial cable segmental suspension lines and three-dimensional finite element models of bridges under multi-working condition systems. The results show that the …