Statistics and Probability Commons^™

An Improved Bayesian Pick-The-Winner (Ibpw) Design For Randomized Phase Ii Clinical Trials, Wanni Lei, Maosen Peng, Xi K. Zhou

COBRA Preprint Series

Phase II clinical trials play a pivotal role in drug development by screening a large number of drug candidates to identify those with promising preliminary efficacy for phase III testing. Trial designs that enable efficient decision-making with small sample sizes and early futility stopping while controlling for type I and II errors in hypothesis testing, such as Simon’s two-stage design, are preferred. Randomized multi-arm trials are increasingly used in phase II settings to overcome the limitations associated with using historical controls as the reference. However, how to effectively balance efficiency and accurate decision-making continues to be an important research topic. …

Employing Digital Pcr For Enhanced Detection Of Perinatal Toxoplasma Gondii Infection: A Cross-Sectional Surveillance And Maternalinfant Outcomes Study In El Salvador, Mary K. Lynn, Marvin Stanley Rodriguez Aquino, Pamela Michelle Cornejo Rivas, Xiomara Miranda, David F. Torres-Romero, Hanson Cowan, Madeleine M. Meyer, Willber D. Castro-Godoy, Mufaro Kanyangarara Ph.D., Stella C.W. Self Ph.D., Ms, Berry A. Campbell, Melissa S. Nolan Ph.D., Mph

Faculty Publications

Toxoplasma gondii is a parasitic infection that can be transmitted in utero, resulting in fetal chorioretinitis and other long-term neurological outcomes. If diagnosed early, pregnancysafe chemotherapeutics can prevent vertical transmission. Unfortunately, diagnosis of acute, primary infection among pregnant women remains neglected, particularly in low-andmiddle-income countries. Clinically actionable diagnosis is complex due to the commonality of infection during childhood and early adulthood which spawn long-last antibody titers and historically unreliable direct molecular diagnostics. The current study employed a cross-sectional T. gondii perinatal surveillance study using digital PCR, a next generation molecular diagnostic platform, and a maternal-fetal outcomes survey to ascertain the …

Descriptions Of Interglacial Mastodons From Snowmass, Colorado, Connor White

Electronic Theses and Dissertations

The Ziegler Reservoir fossil site (ZRFS) in Colorado contains over 4000 mastodon bones that date from 140,000 to 100,000 years ago. At an elevation of ~2705 meters above sea level, ZRFS represents an alpine ecosystem dated to Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 5. Formal descriptions of cheek teeth, mandibles, crania, and femora were completed. Statistical analyses of the upper and lower third molars, including a novel measurement of interloph(id) distances, indicate significant differences between ZRFS mastodons and Mammut pacificus, while falling within the ranges for Mammut americanum. This study agrees with the taxonomic assignment of ZRFS mastodons to Mammut …

Mir4435-2hg As A Possible Novel Predictive Biomarker Of Chemotherapy Response And Death In Pediatric B-Cell All, Yulieth Torres-Llanos, Jovanny Zabaleta, Nataly Cruz-Rodriguez, Sandra Quijano, Paula Carolina Guzmán, Iliana De Los Reyes, Nathaly Poveda-Garavito, Ana Infante, Liliana Lopez-Kleine, Alba Lucía Combita

School of Medicine Faculty Publications

Introduction: Although B-cell acute lymphoblastic leukemia (B-cell ALL) survival rates have improved in recent years, Hispanic children continue to have poorer survival rates. There are few tools available to identify at the time of diagnosis whether the patient will respond to induction therapy. Our goal was to identify predictive biomarkers of treatment response, which could also serve as prognostic biomarkers of death, by identifying methylated and differentially expressed genes between patients with positive minimal residual disease (MRD+) and negative minimal residual disease (MRD-). Methods: DNA and RNA were extracted from tumor blasts separated by immunomagnetic columns. Illumina MethlationEPIC and mRNA …

A Discussion On Estimation Of The Best Constant For Spherical Restriction Inequalities, Hongyi Liu

Mathematics, Statistics, and Computer Science Honors Projects

The restriction conjecture asks for a meaningful restriction of the Fourier transform of a function to a sufficiently curved lower dimensional manifold. It then conjectures certain size estimates for this restriction in terms of the size of the original function. It has been proven in 2 dimensions, but it is open in dimensions 3 and larger, and is an area of much recent active effort. In our study, instead of aiming to prove the restriction conjecture, we target understanding its worst-case scenarios within known estimates. Specifically, we investigate the extension operator applied to antipodally concentrating profiles, examining the ratio of …

Maternal Care Utilization And Provision During The Covid-19 Pandemic: Voices From Minoritized Pregnant And Postpartum Women And Maternal Care Providers In Deep South, Ran Zhang, Tiffany Byrd, Shan Qiao Ph.D., Myriam E. Torres Phd, Msph, Xiaoming Li Ph.D., Jihong Liu Sc.D.

Faculty Publications

Background

The COVID-19 pandemic has significantly affected maternal care services especially for minoritized individuals, creating challenges for both service users (i.e., African American and Hispanic pregnant/postpartum women) and maternal care providers (MCPs). Guided by a socioecological framework, this study aims to investigate the experiences of African American and Hispanic pregnant and postpartum women, as well as MCPs, in accessing and providing maternal care services during the COVID-19 pandemic in the Deep South.

Methods

We conducted semi-structured interviews with 19 African American women, 20 Hispanic women, and 9 MCPs between January and August 2022. Participants were recruited from Obstetrics and Gynecology …

An Investigation Into The Causes Of Home Field Advantage In Professional Soccer, Paige E. Tomer

Mathematics, Statistics, and Computer Science Honors Projects

Home-field advantage is the sporting phenomenon in which the home team outperforms the away team. Despite its widespread occurrence across sports, the underlying reasons for home-field advantage remain uncertain. In this paper, we employ a range of statistical methods to explore the causal relationships of potential determinants of home-field advantage. We measure home-field advantage using match outcomes and differential metrics (e.g., differences in yellow cards received). In an attempt to narrow the research disparity between men’s and women’s sports, we utilize data from the National Women’s Soccer League (NWSL) and the English Premier League (EPL) to investigate potential causes of …

Using Probability Theory To Calculate The Odds That Either Candidate Wins The 2024 Presidential Election, Andrew Ruggero

Department of Applied Mathematics & Statistics Faculty Publications

In the U.S., where the electoral college is used to determine the votes of an election, calculating the odds of a president winning is not as simple as looking at the total vote percentages. With each state not exactly having a proportionally linear amount of votes per its population, the total percentage doesn’t mean much. As such, in order to calculate these odds, we must look at a variety of winning combinations per each candidate. First, we must take into account that swing states are the only ones that matter. Defined as a 5% difference between the two main candidates, …

"Who Wrote The Epistle, God Only Knows": A Statistical Authorial Analysis Of Hebrews In Comparison With Pauline And Lukan Literature, Benjamin J. Erickson

Senior Honors Theses

The authorship of Hebrews has been a point of contention for scholars for the past two millennia. While the epistle is traditionally attributed to Paul, many scholars assert that it carries thematic, structural, and stylistic differences from the remainder of his extant epistles; therefore, many other possible authors have been proposed. Of these, only Luke has other New Testament writings. Therefore, this project conducts a statistical comparison of Hebrews to the Pauline and Lukan corpora using stylometric authorial analysis methods. This analysis demonstrates that Hebrews is stylistically closer to Lukan literature than Pauline (but not to a significant degree), and …

A Survey Of The Murray State University Csis Department Of Student And Instructor Attitudes In Relation To Earlier Introduction Of Version Control Systems, Gavin Johnson

Honors College Theses

Over the previous 20 years, the software development industry has overseen an evolution in application of Version Control Systems (VCS) from a Centralized Version Control System (CVCS) format to a Decentralized Version Control Format (DVCS). Examples of the former include Perforce and Subversion whilst the latter of the two include Github and BitBucket. As DVCS models allow software contributors to maintain their respective local repositories of relevant code bases, developers are able to work offline and maintain their work with relative fault tolerance. This contrasts to CVCS models, which require software contributors to be connected online to a main server. …

Uconn Baseball Reliever Lane Optimization Tool, Jason Bartholomew

Honors Scholar Theses

The building of a tool to be utilized by UConn’s Division I baseball team that will generate a game plan for when different relievers should be used against different parts of the opponent’s lineup to achieve the lowest total expected value of runs allowed for the remainder of the game based on game situations and matchup probabilities. The tool will also examine and determine situations that may be vital enough to the outcome of the game to bring in a better reliever normally saved for later in the game.

Assessing Social Vulnerabilities Of Salivary Gland Cancer Care, Prognosis, And Treatment In The United States, Govind S. Bindra, David J. Fei-Zhang, Atharva Desai, John Maddalozzo, Stephanie S. Smith, Urjeet A. Patel, Daniel C. Chelius, Jill N. D'Souza, Jeffrey C. Rastatter, M. Boyd Gillespie, Anthony M. Sheyn

School of Medicine Faculty Publications

Background: Salivary gland cancers (SGC)-social determinants of health (SDoH) investigations are limited by narrow scopes of SGC-types and SDoH. This Social Vulnerability Index (SVI)-study hypothesized that socioeconomic status (SES) most contributed to SDoH-associated SGC-disparities. Methods: Retrospective cohort of 24 775 SGCs assessed SES, minority-language status (ML), household composition (HH), housing-transportation (HT), and composite-SDoH measured by the SVI via regressions with surveillance and survival length, late-staging presentation, and treatment (surgery, radio-, chemotherapy) receipt. Results: Increasing social vulnerability showed decreases in surveillance/survival; increased odds of advanced-presenting-stage (OR: 1.12, 95% CI: 1.07, 1.17), chemotherapy receipt (OR: 1.13, 95% CI: 1.03, 1.23); decreased odds …

Benthic Community Response To The Impacts Of Proposed Sediment Diversions In Louisiana Estuaries, Jillian C. Tupitza

LSU Doctoral Dissertations

Sediment diversions designed to mitigate land loss in coastal Louisiana will likely cause ecosystem-wide shifts. The first diversion, planned for Barataria Bay, will divert fresh water and sediment from the Mississippi River into the surrounding wetlands to help them keep pace with high rates of relative sea-level rise (RSLR). Estuarine benthic communities were used in this study as tools to characterize ecological patterns in the context of anticipated salinity changes. I reviewed relevant literature, conducted a two-year survey of Barataria Bay benthos, executed a reciprocal transplant experiment to describe changes that might occur in both community composition and trophic dynamics, …

Evaluating The Effect Of Skipping Ticagrelor Doses And Need For Bolus Doses Upon Treatment Resumption Through Population Pk/Pd Simulation, Hiroyoshi Matsui, Le Thien Truc Pham, Eyob D. Adane

ONU Student Research Colloquium

Ticagrelor (Brilinta (R)) is the first reversibly binding oral P2Y12 receptor antagonist. It is used, mostly in combination with aspirin, in patients with acute coronary syndromes to reduce thrombosis. The manufacturer of ticagrelor recommends discontinuing it at least 5 days before any surgery when possible. While the effect of dose interruptions on the risk of thrombosis is not directly studied, it is important to understand the impact of skipping doses on ticagrelor's PK/PD profile for clinical-decision making. The objectives of the current study were to simulate the impact of therapy interruption on the PK/PD of ticagrelor and examine the need …

Legal Process Durations In Domestic Violence Cases, Gabrielle Meyers, Jon Anderson

Undergraduate Research Symposium 2024

Slow court case processing is a significant concern, particularly in regard to their adverse implications for survivors of serious crimes such as domestic abuse and sexual assault. This study investigates a number of factors that may influence the duration of court case proceedings using court records from three Minnesota counties. Focusing on cases of domestic violence, sexual assault, kidnapping, harassment, stalking, and various other sex crimes, we employ survival analysis methods to explore the effects of various factors on the duration of court case processing. Our analysis considers the effects of factors such as type of crime, form of legal …

The Relationship Between Fatalities In Police Violence And Their Identifying Characteristics: Age, Gender, Race, And Region, Yuechu Hu

Undergraduate Research Symposium 2024

Police violence, highlighted by the George Floyd incident in 2020, has intensified concerns about police brutality and perceived racism in U.S. law enforcement (AP News, 2022). Therefore, we intend to analyze Fatal Encounters data, which documents non-police deaths that occur in the presence of the police in the United States. By creating statistical tables and graphs, as well as applying time-series methods, classification and regression trees, and a multinomial logistic regression model, we find that males and transgender people are more likely than females to encounter victimization during police brutality enforcement for any cause of death. Victims older than 19 …

Identifying Multilevel Predictors Of Behavioral Outcomes Like Park Use: A Comparison Of Conditional And Marginal Modeling Approaches, Marilyn E. Wende, S. Morgan Hughey, Alexander C. Mclain, Shirelle Hallum, J. Aaron Hipp, Jasper Schipperijn, Ellen W. Stowe, Andrew T. Kaczynski Ph.D.

Faculty Publications

This study compared marginal and conditional modeling approaches for identifying individual, park and neighborhood park use predictors. Data were derived from the ParkIndex study, which occurred in 128 block groups in Brooklyn (New York), Seattle (Washington), Raleigh (North Carolina), and Greenville (South Carolina). Survey respondents (n = 320) indicated parks within one half-mile of their block group used within the past month. Parks (n = 263) were audited using the Community Park Audit Tool. Measures were collected at the individual (park visitation, physical activity, sociodemographic characteristics), park (distance, quality, size), and block group (park count, population density, age structure, racial …

Identity Development Among Pre-Health Students During The Covid-19 Pandemic, Anya Kapitula, Anna Tyshka

23rd Annual A. Paul and Carol C. Schaap Celebration of Undergraduate Research and Creative Activity (2024)

Many sociology studies have been published regarding the experiences and development of medical school students, but there is a gap in research observing undergraduate students on pre-health professions tracks. Specifically, studies have been published noting a significant decrease in the empathy of medical school students during their third year, but no research has been conducted to identify development patterns of these students during their undergraduate years. This study aims to identify groups of undergraduate students on pre-health professions tracks based on typologies formed from longitudinal survey responses, and also to identify any significant transitions between these groups over time. Because …

Mathematically Rigorous Deep Learning Paradigms For Data-Driven Scientific Modeling, Owen Nicholas Davis

Mathematics & Statistics ETDs

This dissertation explores the crucial role of data-driven modeling in science and engineering, with a focus on developing surrogate models to accelerate large-scale computational tasks, aiding in both outer-loop functions like uncertainty quantification and expensive inner-loop tasks within broader computational frameworks. Challenges arise with increased problem dimension and sparse, noisy training data, particularly significant when constructing surrogates for very expensive computational models where acquiring sufficient high-fidelity training data is unfeasible. In such scenarios, training surrogates from an ensemble of multifidelity information sources of varying accuracy and cost becomes essential. We emphasize neural network-based modeling paradigms, which are flexible in integrating …

Latent Classification Of Multi-Model Non-Homogeneous Continuous-Time Markov Chains, Joonha Chang

Dissertations and Theses (Open Access)

The continuous-time Markov chain (CTMC) model and latent clustering models are commonly used to study longitudinal measures of categorical outcomes. Because of its simple but powerful Markovian property, CTMC models have been widely used in medical and public health researches. Due to limitations in the standard CTMC model, there have been some studies on non-homogeneous continuous-time Markov chain (NH-CTMC) that utilized time-dependent rates, but the progresses have been limited. NH-CTMC can be more powerful than CTMC by its default nature of time-dependent rate that can be fitted to a wider range of applications in medical studies. In this study, we …