Statistics and Probability Commons^™

Prospective K-8 Teachers’ Knowledge Of Relational Thinking, Marta Magiera, Leigh A. Van Den Kieboom, John Moyer

Mathematics, Statistics and Computer Science Faculty Research and Publications

The goal of this study was to examine two issues: First, pre-service teachers’ ability and inclination to think relationally prior to instruction about the role relational thinking plays in the K-8 mathematics curriculum. Second, to examine task specific variables possibly associated with pre-service teachers’ inclination to engage in relational thinking. The results revealed that preservice teachers engage in relational thinking about equality, however, their inclination to do so is rather limited. Furthermore, they tend to engage in relational thinking more frequently in the context of arithmetic than algebra-related tasks. Pre-service teachers’ inclination to engage in relational thinking appeared to also …

Targeted Minimum Loss Based Estimator That Outperforms A Given Estimator, Susan Gruber, Mark J. Van Der Laan

U.C. Berkeley Division of Biostatistics Working Paper Series

Targeted minimum loss based estimation (TMLE) provides a template for the construction of semiparametric locally efficient double robust substitution estimators of the target parameter of the data generating distribution in a semiparametric censored data or causal inference model (van der Laan and Rubin (2006),van der Laan (2008), van der Laan and Rose (2011)). In this article we demonstrate how to construct a TMLE that also satisfies the property that it is at least as efficient as a user supplied asymptotically linear estimator. For the sake of illustration we focus on estimation of the additive average causal effect of a point …

Examining The Student Investment Roundtable's Funds, David Hernandez, Uriel Luna

Undergraduate Research Conference

To what extent are the factors of the Fama-French-Factor Asset Pricing Model related to rates of returns of the Stephen F. Austin State University Student Investment Roundtable Fund?

The Fama-French Model is believed to be a major improvement over the ever-popular Capital Asset Pricing Model, CAPM. The Capital Asset Pricing Model uses a single factor beta to compare the excess returns of a portfolio with the excess returns of the market as a whole, but is said to oversimplify the complex market. On the other hand, the Fama-French Model three-factor adds additional factors to the original CAPM equation. The Fama-French …

The Relative Performance Of Targeted Maximum Likelihood Estimators, Kristin E. Porter, Susan Gruber, Mark J. Van Der Laan, Jasjeet S. Sekhon

U.C. Berkeley Division of Biostatistics Working Paper Series

There is an active debate in the literature on censored data about the relative performance of model based maximum likelihood estimators, IPCW-estimators, and a variety of double robust semiparametric efficient estimators. Kang and Schafer (2007) demonstrate the fragility of double robust and IPCW-estimators in a simulation study with positivity violations. They focus on a simple missing data problem with covariates where one desires to estimate the mean of an outcome that is subject to missingness. Responses by Robins et al. (2007), Tsiatis and Davidian (2007), Tan (2007a) and Ridgeway and McCaffrey (2007) further explore the challenges faced by double robust …

Estimation And Testing In Targeted Group Sequential Covariate-Adjusted Randomized Clinical Trials, Antoine Chambaz, Mark J. Van Der Laan

U.C. Berkeley Division of Biostatistics Working Paper Series

This article is devoted to the construction and asymptotic study of adaptive group sequential covariate-adjusted randomized clinical trials analyzed through the prism of the semiparametric methodology of targeted maximum likelihood estimation (TMLE). We show how to build, as the data accrue group-sequentially, a sampling design which targets a user-supplied optimal design. We also show how to carry out a sound TMLE statistical inference based on such an adaptive sampling scheme (therefore extending some results known in the i.i.d setting only so far), and how group-sequential testing applies on top of it. The procedure is robust (i.e., consistent even if the …

Section Abstracts: Statistics

Virginia Journal of Science

Abstracts of the Statistics Section for the 89th Annual Meeting of the Virginia Academy of Science, May 25-27, 2011, University of Richmond, Richmond VA.

Embodied Emissions Abatement: A Policy Assessment Using Stochastic Analysis, Adolf Acquaye, Aidan Duffy, Biswajit Basu

Articles

Policymakers traditionally focus on regulating operational energy use in buildings, ignoring other life cycle components such as embodied energy even though this may account for a significant portion of life cycle emissions. Data relating to embodied energy and emissions in buildings is limited. However, stochastic techniques can be used to estimate the distribution of such emissions from buildings. This helps policymakers identify which instruments are appropriate for achieving emissions reductions. A primary aim of this paper is to demonstrate this approach using a sample of apartment buildings in Ireland. A Monte-Carlo simulation suggests that the average probability distribution of embodied …

Subsample Ignorable Likelihood For Accelerated Failure Time Models With Missing Predictors, Nanhua Zhang, Roderick J. Little

The University of Michigan Department of Biostatistics Working Paper Series

No abstract provided.

Building A Decision Aid Right-Side-Out, Barry F. Anderson

Systems Science Friday Noon Seminar Series

Tools have long been available for improving decision making, yet people who have knowledge of these tools seem reluctant to use them. I consider multiple reasons why this might be so and consider multiple solutions, then present what I believe to be the world's most user-friendly decision aid, which is now nearly ready for beta testing and available at no cost at http://wisedecider.net.

Wise Decider is believed to be unique in having the following features:

1. A creative thinking guide and a critical thinking guide that provide context-sensitive advice for problem structuring, evaluation, and implementation.
2. A decision table with cells …

Stochastic Hybrid Embodied Co2-Eq Analysis: An Application To The Irish Apartment Building Sector, Adolf Acquaye, Aidan Duffy, Biswajit Basu

Articles

Although embodiedCO2-eq analysis has seen recent developments as evident in the establishment of the ISO14040 and 14044 LCA standards, it is recognized that due to weaknesses in gathering data on product-related emissions,embodiedCO2-eq values are probabilistic. This paper presents a stochastic analysis of hybrid embodied CO2-eq in buildings to account for this weakness in traditional methods and, by way of example, applies it to an Irish construction-sector case study. Using seven apartment buildings, 70,000 results are simulated with Monte Carlo analysis and used to derive probabilistic and cumulative embodied CO2-eq intensity distributions for apartment buildings in Ireland. A Wakeby distribution with …

Characterization Of The Threshold For Nad(P)H:Quinone Oxidoreductase Activity In Intact Sulforaphane-Treated Pulmonary Arterial Endothelial Cells, Robert D. Bongard, Gary S. Krenz, Adam J. Gastonguay, Carol L. Williams, Brian J. Lindemer, Marilyn P. Merker

Mathematics, Statistics and Computer Science Faculty Research and Publications

Treatment of bovine pulmonary arterial endothelial cells in culture with the phase II enzyme inducer sulforaphane (5 μM, 24 h; sulf-treated) increased cell-lysate NAD(P)H:quinone oxidoreductase (NQO1) activity by 5.7 ± 0.6 (mean ± SEM)-fold, but intact-cell NQO1 activity by only 2.8 ± 0.1-fold compared to control cells. To evaluate the hypothesis that the threshold for sulforaphane-induced intact-cell NQO1 activity reflects a limitation in the capacity to supply NADPH at a sufficient rate to drive all the induced NQO1 to its maximum activity, total KOH-extractable pyridine nucleotides were measured in cells treated with duroquinone to stimulate maximal NQO1 activity. NQO1 activation …

Nice Guys Finish Fast And Bad Guys Finish Last: Facilitatory Vs. Inhibitory Interaction In Parallel Systems, Ami Eidels, Joseph W. Houpt, Nicholas Altieri, Lei Pei, James T. Townsend

Psychology Faculty Publications

Systems Factorial Technology is a powerful framework for investigating the fundamental properties of human information processing such as architecture (i.e., serial or parallel processing) and capacity (how processing efficiency is affected by increased workload). The Survivor Interaction Contrast (SIC) and the Capacity Coefficient are effective measures in determining these underlying properties, based on response-time data. Each of the different architectures, under the assumption of independent processing, predicts a specific form of the SIC along with some range of capacity. In this study, we explored SIC predictions of discrete-state (Markov process) and continuous-state (Linear Dynamic) models that allow for certain types …

Counting The Impossible: Sampling And Modeling To Achieve A Large State Homeless Count, Jennifer L. Priestley, Jane Massey

Faculty Articles

Objective: Using inferential statistics, we develop estimates of the homeless population of a geographically large and economically diverse state -- Georgia.

Methods: Multiple independent data sources (2000 U.S. Census, the 2006 Georgia County Guide, Georgia Chamber of Commerce) were used to develop Clusters of the 150 Georgia Counties. These clusters were used as "strata" to then execute traified sampling. Homeless counts were conducted within the sample counties, allowing for multiple regression models to be developed to generate predictions of homeless persons by county.

Results: In response to a mandate from the US Department of Housing and Urban Development, the State …

Developing A Library Value Indicator For A Disciplinary Population, Jeanne M. Brown

Library Faculty Research

Three different ways of documenting library value were presented to fourth year landscape architecture students in the UNLV School of Architecture: a contingent valuation survey, a library calculator, and a survey to rate importance and impact of library services and features. Students used the three approaches, then discussed their experiences with the author. Their input suggested improvements in the instruments and provided feedback on possible positive and negative consequences of inviting this kind of valuing. Working with a focused collection and population provided a relatively safe environment to explore concerns about negative consequences.

Demonstrating Library Value: Examples And Applications For Arts Libraries, Jeanne M. Brown

Library Faculty Research

Demonstrating library value is of critical importance to all libraries, both to protect services and to serve patrons effectively. This paper presents suggestions for art and architecture libraries as they engage in determining what patrons value and documenting that value for library and campus administrators. Methods for calculating worth and for presenting a case are provided, as are ways of using strategic thinking and the assessment process to ensure the continuance of valuable services should budget reductions be unavoidable.

Targeted Maximum Likelihood Estimation For Dynamic Treatment Regimes In Sequential Randomized Controlled Trials, Paul Chaffee, Mark J. Van Der Laan

U.C. Berkeley Division of Biostatistics Working Paper Series

Sequential Randomized Controlled Trials (SRCTs) are rapidly becoming essential tools in the search for optimized treatment regimes in ongoing treatment settings. Analyzing data for multiple time-point treatments with a view toward optimal treatment regimes is of interest in many types of afflictions: HIV infection, Attention Deficit Hyperactivity Disorder in children, leukemia, prostate cancer, renal failure, and many others. Methods for analyzing data from SRCTs exist but they are either inefficient or suffer from the drawbacks of estimating equation methodology. We describe an estimation procedure, targeted maximum likelihood estimation (TMLE), which has been fully developed and implemented in point treatment settings, …

Age-Gaps In Sexual Partnerships: Seeing Beyond ‘Sugar Daddies’, Miles Q. Ott, Till Bärnighausen, Frank Tanser, Mark N. Lurie, Marie-Louise Newell

Statistical and Data Sciences: Faculty Publications

We examine for the first time age-mixing in sexual relationships in a population with very high HIV incidence and prevalence in rural South Africa. The highest levels of age assortativity (the pairing of like with like) were casual partnerships reported by men, the lowest levels were spousal relationships reported by women. Given the age–sex distribution of HIV prevalence in this population, interventions to decrease age-gaps in spousal relationships may be effective in reducing HIV incidence.

Threshold Regression Models Adapted To Case-Control Studies, And The Risk Of Lung Cancer Due To Occupational Exposure To Asbestos In France, Antoine Chambaz, Dominique Choudat, Catherine Huber, Jean-Claude Pairon, Mark J. Van Der Laan

U.C. Berkeley Division of Biostatistics Working Paper Series

Asbestos has been known for many years as a powerful carcinogen. Our purpose is quantify the relationship between an occupational exposure to asbestos and an increase of the risk of lung cancer. Furthermore, we wish to tackle the very delicate question of the evaluation, in subjects suffering from a lung cancer, of how much the amount of exposure to asbestos explains the occurrence of the cancer. For this purpose, we rely on a recent French case-control study. We build a large collection of threshold regression models, data-adaptively select a better model in it by multi-fold likelihood-based cross-validation, then fit the …

Overcoming Pose Limitations Of A Skin-Cued Histograms Of Oriented Gradients Dismount Detector Through Contextual Use Of Skin Islands And Multiple Support Vector Machines, Jonathon R. Climer

Theses and Dissertations

This thesis provides a novel visualization method to analyze the impact that articulations in dismount pose and camera aspect angle have on histograms of oriented gradients (HOG) features and eventual detections. Insights from these relationships are used to identify limitations in a state of the art skin cued HOG dismount detector's ability to detect poses not in a standard upright stances. Improvements to detector performance are made by further leveraging available skin information, reducing false detections by an additional order of magnitude. In addition, a method is outlined for training supplemental support vector machines (SVMs) from computer generated data, for …

Variable Selection And Parameter Estimation Using A Continuous And Differentiable Approximation To The L0 Penalty Function, Douglas Nielsen Vanderwerken

Theses and Dissertations

L0 penalized likelihood procedures like Mallows' Cp, AIC, and BIC directly penalize for the number of variables included in a regression model. This is a straightforward approach to the problem of overfitting, and these methods are now part of every statistician's repertoire. However, these procedures have been shown to sometimes result in unstable parameter estimates as a result on the L0 penalty's discontinuity at zero. One proposed alternative, seamless-L0 (SELO), utilizes a continuous penalty function that mimics L0 and allows for stable estimates. Like other similar methods (e.g. LASSO and SCAD), SELO produces sparse solutions because the penalty function is …