Statistics and Probability Commons^™

Neural Network Predictions Of A Simulation-Based Statistical And Graph Theoretic Study Of The Board Game Risk, Jacob Munson

Murray State Theses and Dissertations

We translate the RISK board into a graph which undergoes updates as the game advances. The dissection of the game into a network model in discrete time is a novel approach to examining RISK. A review of the existing statistical findings of skirmishes in RISK is provided. The graphical changes are accompanied by an examination of the statistical properties of RISK. The game is modeled as a discrete time dynamic network graph, with the various features of the game modeled as properties of the network at a given time. As the network is computationally intensive to implement, results are produced …

Characterization Of Hiv Diversity, Phylodynamics And Drug Resistance In Washington, Dc., Marcos Pérez-Losada, Amanda D Castel, Brittany Lewis, Michael Kharfen, Charles P Cartwright, Bruce Huang, Taylor Maxwell, Alan E Greenberg, Keith A Crandall

Epidemiology Faculty Publications

No abstract provided.

Novel Models Of Visual Topographic Map Alignment In The Superior Colliculus., Ruben A Tikidji-Hamburyan, Tarek A El-Ghazawi, Jason W. Triplett

Pediatrics Faculty Publications

The establishment of precise neuronal connectivity during development is critical for sensing the external environment and informing appropriate behavioral responses. In the visual system, many connections are organized topographically, which preserves the spatial order of the visual scene. The superior colliculus (SC) is a midbrain nucleus that integrates visual inputs from the retina and primary visual cortex (V1) to regulate goal-directed eye movements. In the SC, topographically organized inputs from the retina and V1 must be aligned to facilitate integration. Previously, we showed that retinal input instructs the alignment of V1 inputs in the SC in a manner dependent on …

Phase I Dose-Escalation Trial Of Intravaginal Curcumin In Women For Cervical Dysplasia, Leda Gattoc, Paula M. Frew, Shontell N. Thomas, Kirk A. Easley, Laura Ward, H-H Sherry Chow, Chiemi A. Ura, Lisa Flowers

Environmental & Global Health Faculty Research

Background: This is a Phase I trial demonstrating safety and tolerability of intravaginal curcumin for future use in women with cervical neoplasia. Objective: The objective of this study was to assess the safety, tolerability, and pharmacokinetics of intravaginal curcumin in healthy women. Study design: We conducted a 3+3 dose-escalation Phase I trial in a group of women aged 18–45 years. Thirteen subjects were given one of four doses of curcumin powder (500 mg, 1,000 mg, 1,500 mg, and 2,000 mg) packed in gelatin capsules, which was administered intravaginally daily for 14 days. The primary end point for this study was …

What Affects Parents’ Choice Of Milk? An Application Of Bayesian Model Averaging, Yingzhe Cheng

Mathematics & Statistics ETDs

This study identifies the factors that influence parents’ choice of milk for their children, using data from a unique survey administered in 2013 in Hunan province, China. In this survey, we identified two brands of milk, which differ in their prices and safety claims by the producer. Data were collected on parents’ choice of milk between the two brands, demographics, attitude towards food safety and behaviors related to food. Stepwise model selection and Bayesian model averaging (BMA) are used to search for influential factors. The two approaches consistently select the same factors suggested by an economic theoretical model, including price …

Mechanistic Plug-And-Play Models For Understanding The Impact Of Control And Climate On Seasonal Dengue Dynamics In Iquitos, Peru, Nathan Levick

Mathematics & Statistics ETDs

Dengue virus is a mosquito-borne multi-serotype disease whose dynamics are not precisely understood despite half of the world’s human population being at risk of infection. A recent dataset of dengue case reports from an isolated Amazonian city— Iquitos, Peru—provides a unique opportunity to assess dengue dynamics in a simpli- fied setting. Ten years of clinical surveillance data reveal a specific pattern: two novel serotypes, in turn, invaded and exclusively dominated incidence over several seasonal cycles, despite limited intra-annual variation in climate conditions. Together with mechanistic mathematical models, these data can provide an improved understand- ing of the nonlinear interactions between …

Improving Power In Group Sequential, Randomized Trials By Adjusting For Prognostic Baseline Variables And Short-Term Outcomes, Tianchen Qian, Michael Rosenblum, Huitong Qiu

Johns Hopkins University, Dept. of Biostatistics Working Papers

In group sequential designs, adjusting for baseline variables and short-term outcomes can lead to increased power and reduced sample size. We derive formulas for the precision gain from such variable adjustment using semiparametric estimators for the average treatment effect, and give new results on what conditions lead to substantial power gains and sample size reductions. The formulas reveal how the impact of prognostic variables on the precision gain is modified by the number of pipeline participants, analysis timing, enrollment rate, and treatment effect heterogeneity, when the semiparametric estimator uses correctly specified models. Given set prognostic value of baseline variables and …

Economic Opportunity And Young Adult Mortality: Variations By Race/Ethnicity And Gender, Jocelyn Mineo

Honors Projects

This study examines the relationship between economic opportunity and adolescent and young adult mortality in the United States. In addition, this study explores other variables, such as social support and rurality, and their link to young adult mortality rates. First, we examined the link between economic opportunity and all-cause mortality rates for youth ages 15 to 34 in the United States. Given the increasing racial and ethnic diversity of America’s youth, we pay particular attention to race/ethnic differences. We also examine the differences in mortality by gender.

Stochastic Optimization Of Adaptive Enrichment Designs For Two Subpopulations, Aaron Fisher, Michael Rosenblum

Johns Hopkins University, Dept. of Biostatistics Working Papers

An adaptive enrichment design is a randomized trial that allows enrollment criteria to be modified at interim analyses, based on a preset decision rule. When there is prior uncertainty regarding treatment effect heterogeneity, these trial designs can provide improved power for detecting treatment effects in subpopulations. We present a simulated annealing approach to search over the space of decision rules and other parameters for an adaptive enrichment design. The goal is to minimize the expected number enrolled or expected duration, while preserving the appropriate power and Type I error rate. We also explore the benefits of parallel computation in the …

An Examination Of The Neural Unreliability Thesis Of Autism, John Butler, Sophie Molholm, Gizely Andrade, John J. Foxe

Articles

An emerging neuropathological theory of Autism, referred to here as “the neural unreliability thesis,” proposes greater variability in moment-to-moment cortical representation of environmental events, such that the system shows general instability in its impulse response function. Leading evidence for this thesis derives from functional neuroimaging, a methodology ill-suited for detailed assessment of sensory transmission dynamics occurring at the millisecond scale. Electrophysiological assessments of this thesis, however, are sparse and unconvincing. We conducted detailed examination of visual and somatosensory evoked activity using high-density electrical mapping in individuals with autism (N = 20) and precisely matched neurotypical controls (N = 20), recording …

Very Rapid Onset Cannabis Dependence Risk In Relation To Co-Occurring Use Of Other Psychoactive Drugs, Olga A. Vsevolozhskaya, Fernando A. Wagner, James C. Anthony

Biostatistics Presentations

Background: Epidemiological estimates for lifetime cumulative incidence indicate that for every 9-11 who start using cannabis, one becomes a case of the cannabis dependence syndrome (CDS) – i.e., roughly 9%-11%. More recent estimates clarify that CDS risk might be much lower among ’cannabis only’ users, due in part to the fact that many ’cannabis only’ users try the drug a few times and never again. We turned to Hill functional analysis in order to study CDS probability soon after 1st cannabis use, estimated across strata defined by the number of recent days of cannabis use, with an acknowledgment that a …

Asymptotic Behavior Of Even-Order Damped Differential Equations With P-Laplacian Like Operators And Deviating Arguments, Qingmin Liu, Martin Bohner, Said R. Grace, Tongxing Li

Mathematics and Statistics Faculty Research & Creative Works

We study the asymptotic properties of the solutions of a class of even-order damped differential equations with p-Laplacian like operators, delayed and advanced arguments. We present new theorems that improve and complement related contributions reported in the literature. Several examples are provided to illustrate the practicability, maneuverability, and efficiency of the results obtained. An open problem is proposed.

An Efficient And Long-Time Accurate Third-Order Algorithm For The Stokes–Darcy System, Wenbin Chen, Max Gunzburger, Dong Sun, Xiaoming Wang

Mathematics and Statistics Faculty Research & Creative Works

A third order in time numerical IMEX-type algorithm for the Stokes–Darcy system for flows in fluid saturated karst aquifers is proposed and analyzed. a novel third-order Adams–Moulton scheme is used for the discretization of the dissipative term whereas a third-order explicit Adams–Bashforth scheme is used for the time discretization of the interface term that couples the Stokes and Darcy components. the scheme is efficient in the sense that one needs to solve, at each time step, decoupled Stokes and Darcy problems. Therefore, legacy Stokes and Darcy solvers can be applied in parallel. the scheme is also unconditionally stable and, with …

The Subject Librarian Newsletter, Statistics, Fall 2016, Sandy Avila

Libraries' Newsletters

No abstract provided.

Non Markovian Queue With Two Types Service Optional Re-Service And General Vacation Distribution, K. Sathiya, G. Ayyappan

Applications and Applied Mathematics: An International Journal (AAM)

We consider a single server batch arrival queueing system, where the server provides two types of heterogeneous service. A customer has the option of choosing either type 1 service with probability p1 or type 2 service with probability p2 with the service times follow general distribution. After the completion of either type 1 or type 2 service a customer has the option to repeat or not to repeat the type 1 or type 2 service. As soon as the customer service is completed, the server will take a vacation with probability θ or may continue staying in the system with …

Birth Mass Is The Key To Understanding The Negative Correlation Between Lifespan And Body Size In Dogs, Rong Fan, Gayla R. Olbricht, Xavior Baker, Chen Hou

Mathematics and Statistics Faculty Research & Creative Works

Larger dog breeds live shorter than the smaller ones, opposite of the mass-lifespan relationship observed across mammalian species. Here we use data from 90 dog breeds and a theoretical model based on the first principles of energy conservation and life history tradeoffs to explain the negative correlation between longevity and body size in dogs. We found that the birth/adult mass ratio of dogs scales negatively with adult size, which is different than the weak interspecific scaling in mammals. Using the model, we show that this ratio, as an index of energy required for growth, is the key to understanding why …

Exact Asymptotic Errors Of The Hazard Conditional Rate Kernel For Functional Random Fields, Abbes Rabhi, Sara Soltani

Applications and Applied Mathematics: An International Journal (AAM)

We consider the problem of nonparametric estimation of the kernel type estimators for the conditional cumulative distribution function and the successive derivatives of the conditional density for spatial data. More precisely, given a strictly stationary random field Z = (X, Y), we investigate a kernel estimate of the conditional hazard function of univariate response variable Y given the functional variable X. The principal aim of this paper is to give the mean squared convergence rate of the proposed estimator. Finally, we apply these theoretical results to the estimation of the conditional hazard function where we give the mean squared convergence …

Pertussis-Associated Pneumonia In Infants And Children From Low- And Middle-Income Countries Participating In The Perch Study., Breanna Barger-Kamate, Maria Deloria Knoll, E Wangeci Kagucia, Christine Prosperi, Henry C Baggett, Daniel E. Park, +31 Additional Authors

Epidemiology Faculty Publications

BACKGROUND:  Few data exist describing pertussis epidemiology among infants and children in low- and middle-income countries to guide preventive strategies.

METHODS:  Children 1-59 months of age hospitalized with World Health Organization-defined severe or very severe pneumonia in 7 African and Asian countries and similarly aged community controls were enrolled in the Pneumonia Etiology Research for Child Health study. They underwent a standardized clinical evaluation and provided nasopharyngeal and oropharyngeal swabs and induced sputum (cases only) for Bordetella pertussis polymerase chain reaction. Risk factors and pertussis-associated clinical findings were identified.

RESULTS:  Bordetella pertussis was detected in 53 of 4200 (1.3%) cases …

Analysis Of Hiv Diversity In Hiv-Infected Black Men Who Have Sex With Men (Hptn 061), Iris Chen, Gordon Chau, Jing Wang, William Clarke, Mark A. Marzinke, Manya Magnus, +14 Additional Authors

Epidemiology Faculty Publications

Background

HIV populations often diversify in response to selective pressures, such as the immune response and antiretroviral drug use. We analyzed HIV diversity in Black men who have sex with men who were enrolled in the HIV Prevention Trials Network 061 study.

Methods

A high resolution melting (HRM) diversity assay was used to measure diversity in six regions of the HIV genome: two in gag, one in pol, and three in env. HIV diversity was analyzed for 146 men who were HIV infected at study enrollment, including three with acute infection and 13 with recent infection (identified …

Genomics And Csf Analyses Implicate Thyroid Hormone In Hippocampal Sclerosis Of Aging, Peter T. Nelson, Yuriko Katsumata, Kwangsik Nho, Sergey C. Artiushin, Gregory A. Jicha, Wang-Xia Wang, Erin L. Abner, Andrew J. Saykin, Walter A. Kukull, Alzheimer’S Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (Adni), David W. Fardo

Sanders-Brown Center on Aging Faculty Publications

We report evidence of a novel pathogenetic mechanism in which thyroid hormone dysregulation contributes to dementia in elderly persons. Two single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) on chromosome 12p12 were the initial foci of our study: rs704180 and rs73069071. These SNPs were identified by separate research groups as risk alleles for non-Alzheimer’s neurodegeneration. We found that the rs73069071 risk genotype was associated with hippocampal sclerosis (HS) pathology among people with the rs704180 risk genotype (National Alzheimer’s Coordinating Center/Alzheimer’s Disease Genetic Consortium data; n = 2113, including 241 autopsy-confirmed HS cases). Furthermore, both rs704180 and rs73069071 risk genotypes were associated with widespread brain …